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☆ Explainer: Oil price surge changes ECB narrative only at the margins
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The following examines how higher crude prices - which jumped around 5.5% on Monday following the OPEC+ decision - could impact ECB policy. IS AN OIL PRICE SURGE INFLATIONARY? Part of the issue is that high energy prices slow growth further out and thus become deflationary because they reduce households' and businesses' purchasing power. "The case for more ECB rate hikes is still intact," UniCredit said in a note. If high energy prices spook the Fed, rate-cut bets will unwind and push up the dollar.

☆ Cramer: Here's why I plan to trim some stocks at this stage of the bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +17 min

Back when bulls were everywhere From the time the great bull market began in 1982 until the financial collapse of 2007, we pretty much assumed stocks would always go higher. We often forget what the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009 was all about. A runaway bull market in all but banks — which are actually fueling the rally with their own ineptitude. My closing take, though, is that we have at last shaken off the ghosts of the Great Recession. But accept we are in a bull market and recognize that those who don't know it yet never will.

BEIJING, March 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices ticked down in Asian trade on Friday as bullish sentiment about Chinese demand and potential Middle Eastern supply disruptions was tempered by uncertainty over U.S. economic data to be released later in the day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell by 22 cents, or -0.3%, to $74.15, having gained about 8% this week. Markets are now waiting for U.S. spending and inflation data on Friday and the resulting impact on the U.S. dollar. "Disappointing data may cause concerns about Fed policy again and cap the recent gains," she added. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly in the week to March 24 to a two-year low.

BEIJING, March 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices were very slightly down in Asian morning trade on Friday as bullish sentiment about Chinese demand and potential Middle Eastern supply disruptions was tempered by uncertainty over U.S. economic data on Friday. Markets are now waiting for U.S. spending and inflation data on Friday and the resulting impact on the U.S. dollar. Industrial activity in China has become a key determinant of prices in recent weeks after its ending of coronavirus-related restrictions, amid weaker global demand. Oil prices are set to cap a second straight week of gains after the largest bank failure after the 2008 financial crisis spooked traders and roiled markets. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly in the week to March 24 to a two-year low.

SINGAPORE, March 31 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed in early Asian trade on Friday as sentiment was boosted by an expansion in factory activity in China, the world's second largest crude consumer, and as concerns grew about Middle Eastern supply. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 17 cents, or 0.23%, to $74.54, having gained about 8% this week. China's manufacturing activity rose in March at a slower pace compared with a record breaking expansion in February, but still exceeded expectations by economists in a Reuters poll. Industrial activity in China has become a key determinant of prices in recent weeks following its ending of coronavirus-related restrictions, amid weaker global demand. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly in the week to March 24 to a two-year low.

☆ Money-market funds rake in $300 billion in just three weeks as banks face deposit 'bleed-out'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A record $304 billion has flowed into money-market funds in just three weeks as the banking turmoil spurs deposit withdrawals. Investors are fretting about the safety of their deposits after SVB's collapse, fueling a deposit run into money market funds. The flows into money-market funds, while still substantial, moderated in the most recent week in focus to $66 billion from almost $120 billion in the prior period. "Money is leaving the banks and will every day/week as long as banks are not offering a deposit rate competitive with market rates. Meanwhile, outflows from bank deposits have increased to $17.5 trillion through March 15, and have reached $5.4 trillion at smaller banks.

☆ 'Big Short' Michael Burry admits he was 'wrong to say sell' after the Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Burry tweeted Thursday he was "wrong to say sell" on January 31. Nasdaq 100 entered a bull market on Wednesday after gaining 20% from its December 28 closing low. But Burry walked that statement back, tweeting Thursday that he "was wrong to say sell." Burry's about-turn came after the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 entered a technical bull market for the first time in nearly three years on Wednesday, after the index closed 20% higher from a December 28 low. The Nasdaq 100 index closed 0.9% higher at 12,963.14 on Thursday.

Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Nvidia's stock performance year to date. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Meta's stock performance year to date. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Devon Energy's stock performance year to date. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Johnson & Johnson's stock performance year to date. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart icon Honeywell's year to date stock performance.

☆ A bond-market indicator shows there's trouble brewing in the banking system, warns a top market researcher — and investors are underestimating the risk posed to the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The index measures volatility in the bond market, like the CBOE VIX does for stocks. The bond market is flashing a warning sign that something is going awry in the banking system, says Jim Bianco, the founder of market research firm Bianco Research. That alarm bell is heightened volatility in the bond market, Bianco told Insider this week. The Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America MOVE Index — which measures bond-market volatility, similar to how the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) measures volatility in the stock market — has shot up to its second-highest level in three decades. "Every time it's spiked this high in the past, things have gotten bad," he said, referring to the bond volatility index shown above.

☆ Citigroup sees global profits shrinking 5% in aftermath of banking turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 31 (Reuters) - Citigroup equity strategists flagged a likely 5% contraction in global profits this year as turmoil in the banking sector raises the risk of a recession. Financial markets have had a turbulent few weeks after the collapse of some mid-sized U.S. lenders and a Swiss-backed takeover of Credit Suisse spooked investors about liquidity stress in the banking sector. "Stress in the banking sector has reminded us of the consequences of monetary tightening. Going forward, we think investors' attention will increasingly shift from risks of higher rates to risks of recession," said Citi strategists led by Beata M Manthey. The ongoing confidence crisis could limit banks' risk appetite and reduce the flow of credit, they warned, downgrading the global financial sector to "neutral."

[1/2] Dressmaker Faieza Caswell from Mitchells Plain sews under candlelight in her workplace, on the Cape Flats due to South Africa's struggling power utility company Eskom, implementing regular power cuts - called 'load-shedding', in Cape Town, South Africa February 11, 2023. South Africa's relatively wealthy, developed economy and nearly three decades of political stability helped drive industry growth and draw in reinsurers. And they are now tightening the conditions of their agreements with insurance companies. Reinsurers are also pushing insurance companies to include so-called "named perils" in policies rather than offering blanket cover for catastrophes. Grid failure would plunge South Africa into a nationwide blackout that could last weeks.

NOVEMBER 2021Examiners issue six citations -- "matters requiring attention" (MRA) and "matters requiring immediate attention" (MRIA) -- related to the bank's liquidity stress testing, contingency funding, and liquidity risk management. SVB's tests, supervisors find, are not "stressful enough; they were not realistic... it conducted those tests and the guidance back from the supervisors was that the tests were inadequate," Barr told Congress. "The supervisors told the board of directors and the bank that the board oversight with respect to risk management was deficient," Barr said this week. Fed supervisors begin a "horizontal review" of several banks, including SVB, for interest-rate risk. FEB 2023Fed staff give a presentation to Barr and other Board members about interest rate risk generally and at Silicon Valley Bank in particular.

☆ Goldman Sachs upgrades this solar stock poised to rally nearly 80%, says recent pullback creates an attractive entry point
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The recent pullback in Fluence Energy creates an attractive opportunity for investors to snap up shares of a company with improving fundamentals and margins, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Brian Lee upgraded the energy storage provider to buy from neutral, citing the recent pullback in the solar and energy sector amid the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the ensuing turmoil that spooked many market participants. Shares gained more than 5% before the bell, with the stock down about 13% this month and 5.3% year to date. A stabilizing environment as raw material and logistics cost dwindle should also help shares, he added. At the same time, Lee believes that investors are underappreciating the manufacturing credits Fluence stands to gain from the Inflation Reduction Act.

☆ Energy stocks push TSX higher, Dollarama climbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Enbridge gains on rating upgradeDollarama climbs on quarterly sales beatTSX up 0.8%March 29 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index extended gains on Wednesday, helped by energy stocks, while discount store chain Dollarama advanced after posting quarterly revenue above estimates. Dollarama Inc (DOL.TO) rose 1.2% and hit a two-month high after the discount store chain also reported a surge in same-store sales. The consumer discretionary sector index (.GSPTTCD), housing the stock, added 0.9%. Archibald added that renewable names like Northland Power (NPI.TO) and Ballard Power Systems (BLDP.TO) would stand to benefit from the credits provided to encourage more investment in green technology. Northland Power (NPI.TO) was down 0.2%, while Ballard Power Systems (BLDP.TO) surged 2.6%.

☆ Goldman Sachs picks the winners and losers in regional banks after the SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The banking crisis continues to keep investors on edge about the health of regional banks. Now Goldman Sachs has identified what it said are the biggest winners and losers in the industry in the aftermath of the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. The Wall Street investment bank said the biggest short-term risk for regional banks could come from shifting market shares of deposits as corporates look to diversify. Meanwhile, there is the potential that regional banks will need to "pay up" to prevent deposits from moving to other banks "or leave bank balance sheets entirely," Goldman said. These stocks are all down more than 20% in March as investors spooked by the crisis dumped regional bank shares.

House lawmakers tore into top U.S. bank regulators Wednesday, questioning their competency and saying examiners were asleep at the wheel, at a second day of congressional hearings this week about how Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed practically overnight on March 10 and March 12. "We need competent financial supervisors, but Congress can't legislate competence," House Financial Services chairman Rep. Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., told top officials at the Federal Reserve, Treasury and FDIC at the beginning the hearing. "The light touch cautions from the Fed to SVB management are clearly not what Congress intended for bank supervision," said Waters. Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga, Mich., demanded raw, confidential supervisory information about the banks, available to regulators ahead of the collapses. Members of the Republican majority House challenged many of the decisions made by regulators in the hours and days after SVB collapsed and Signature Bank followed 48 hours later.

☆ ECB's Enria says market nervousness is a concern
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

FRANKFURT, March 28 (Reuters) - Recent volatility in Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) shares was concerning as it showed investors were on edge and could be spooked by moves in the small market for credit default swaps (CDS), European Central Bank supervisor Andrea Enria said on Tuesday. The German bank's shares tumbled last Friday as the cost of insuring its debt against the risk of default jumped to a more than four-year high, intensifying worries about the health of Europe's financial sector. Enria said the CDS market is relatively small and illiquid, but that a selloff there could have broader ramifications for the much larger share market. "What concerned me really was the amount of nervousness, disquiet that I perceived in the market and among investors," Enria told a conference in Frankfurt. Enria argued that central clearing for credit default swaps would improve transparency, reducing the risk of volatility.

☆ Redfin CEO on housing market: Banking crisis has spooked customers
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRedfin CEO on housing market: Banking crisis has spooked customersGlenn Kelman, Redfin CEO, joins ‘Closing Bell: Overtime’ to discuss why home prices are falling despite inventories being low.

March 28 (Reuters) - Immediate investor concerns over the banking sector eased on Tuesday, lifting stock prices, with the European Central Bank's supervisory chief saying recent sector volatility underscored the need to step up regulatory scrutiny. Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) shares rose 1.7%. Top U.S. banking regulators said on Monday they planned to tell Congress that the overall financial system remains on a solid footing after recent bank failures, but will comprehensively review their policies in a bid to prevent future collapses. Regional U.S. lender First Citizens BancShares on Monday scooped up the assets of SVB, in a vote of confidence for the battered banking sector that prompted a rally in bank shares. Bailey said the stresses which led to a crisis in confidence in Credit Suisse were down to specific issues in Switzerland's second-largest bank.

☆ Explainer: What are credit default swaps and why are they causing trouble for Europe's banks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, March 28 (Reuters) - Turbulence in Europe's banks following the implosion of 167-year-old Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) and runs on regional banks in the U.S. has focused attention on the role played by credit default swaps in all the turmoil. The moves followed a surge in the cost of insuring Deutsche Bank's debt against default via credit default swaps (CDS) to a more than four-year high last week. Credit default swaps are derivatives that offer insurance against the risk of a bond issuer - such as a company, a bank or a sovereign government - not paying their creditors. The CDS market is worth around $3.8 trillion, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association. The CDS market is small relative to equities, foreign exchange or the global bond markets, where there are more than $120 trillion bonds outstanding.

☆ Morning Bid: Swinging between bank fears and rate risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanMarkets seem caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Easing concerns about bank stability this week have merely re-introduced interest rate risk, reining in any suggestion of a runaway relief rally as the first quarter closes on Friday. While nerves persist over March bank failures and contagion fears, central banks are still faced with punchy growth and inflation and will likely switch attention back to cooling that down once they're assured banks can take the strain. But interest rate markets are already correcting as signs of stability in the banking arena emerge. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Energy, industrial stocks lift TSX; Lundin Mining jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"But here it seems the market likes the deal and is giving a thumbs up with respect to the acquisition." ET (14:10 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 61.34 points, or 0.31%, at 19,686.08. Energy stocks (.SPTTEN) added 0.8%, tracking oil prices amid supply disruption risks from Iraqi Kurdistan. Still, the bourse is up for the quarter underpinned by gains from January as equities bounced back from previous year's losses. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi AichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ ETF trends reflect a wild first quarter for the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

It's the end of a wild first quarter for stock and bond investors, and ETF flows are reflecting that turmoil. The good news: Despite big market swings , equity and bond ETFs still saw overall inflows in the first quarter. ETF flows year to date: $70 billion inflows Consisting of: Equity: $24 billion inflows Fixed Income: $43 billion inflows Other (currency, etc. ): $3 billion inflows Source: ETF Store While that is still inflow, it is far less than has been typical in recent years. Much of that uncertainty can be seen in a notable pickup in money going into money market funds, traditionally a safe haven asset.

☆ Oil drops as oversupply concerns overshadow demand hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Brent crude futures fell 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $76.23 a barrel by 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT), while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures slid by 57 cents, or 0.8%, to $70.33 a barrel. Oil benchmarks were slightly higher before the news on hopes that a lower dollar and higher gasoline prices would spur more demand for the commodity. A weaker greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more attractive to holders of foreign currencies, lifting demand. Higher gasoline demand will encourage refiners to use more crude oil to turn it into the road transportation fuel, Mizuho analyst Robert Yawger said. Also supportive, Goldman Sachs on Thursday said demand from China, the world's biggest oil importer, continued to surge across the commodity complex, with oil demand topping 16 million barrels per day.

☆ Spooked dealmakers scurry back into their foxholes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

NEW YORK, March 23 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Jonathan Kanter, a lawyer by training, has become something of a magician. Pay closer attention, however, and Kanter is methodically rewriting a decades-old regulatory playbook. Last year, these breakup charges reached their highest level in a decade, at an average 4.5% of deal prices. The Department of Agriculture partnered with the DOJ on the case, another feature of Kanter’s plan of attack. As legal weaknesses emerge, dealmakers should be in position to better structure transactions and defend themselves at trial.

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