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Executives still remained confident about the momentum in demand continuing in the near-term, including in international travel, led by U.S. travelers and China's reopening. Hilton now expects full-year adjusted profit per share between $5.68 and $5.88, compared with a prior forecast of $5.42 to $5.68. The company's net unit growth - which reflects room additions - fell 32% to 5,300 rooms in the first quarter. "We predicted this air pocket (fall in net unit growth), and expect it to be short-term... but this will play to key investor concern on financing risk," Bernstein analyst Richard Clarke said, adding that investor focus was more on unit growth than demand. Hilton reported an adjusted profit of $1.24 per share, compared with analysts' average estimates of $1.13, according to Refinitiv data.

☆ China has an inflation problem. It’s way too low
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s raising the specter of a tailspin of falling prices and wages from which the economy may struggle to recover. “Our core view is that China’s economy is deflationary,” wrote Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at ANZ Research, last week, soon after China released its first-quarter GDP growth figures. Instead of spending money, people are hoarding cash at a record rate. “Even with a conservative estimate, 500 billion yuan in consumption vouchers will drive one trillion yuan in overall consumption, ” Li said in a video posted on his Weibo social media account on Tuesday. In return, the government could receive at least 300 billion yuan through taxes generated by the increase in spending, he said“So it only takes 200 billion yuan in spending for the central government to drive one trillion yuan in consumption,” he said.

Inside them were oranges. Oranges, the fruit. Over the next three days, 8,000 people in Ivrea would throw 900 tons of oranges at one another, one orange at a time, while tens of thousands of other people watched. They would throw the oranges very hard, very viciously, often while screaming profanities at their targets or yowling like Braveheart. And on that day in February, three years of constrained energy was due to explode all at once.

Volvo, a rival of manufacturers such as Daimler Trucks (DTGGe.DE) and Traton (8TRA.DE), forecast 2023 heavy truck sales in Europe and North America of 320,000 for each region. Handelsbanken analyst Hampus Engellau said the raised truck outlook sent a strong message that Volvo sees the second-half of 2023 as a good market for its trucks. Gothenburg-based Volvo, which also makes construction equipment and engines, said there was pent-up demand to replace aging fleets which had helped boost order intake. Shares in Volvo, one of Sweden's biggest employers, rose 1.2% in morning trade in a flat broader market (.OMXSPI). Volvo is not the only automaker to have had a good quarter.

☆ JPMorgan, Citi raise full-year forecasts for China's economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Steven Han | Moment | Getty ImagesAnalysts at JPMorgan and Citi raised their full-year forecasts for China's economy after it delivered an impressive first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 4.5% on Tuesday. Citi economists noted that while services outperformed in the consumption-driven growth for the first quarter, they remain cautious on their forecasts. "The release of pent-up demand during Covid and holiday helped, but we remain cautious on its outlook without big stimulus in sight and the discounts intensifying," Citi economists wrote. With economy stabilization playing out, structural reform could be the next theme to watch," Citi economists wrote. "Risks facing our full-year GDP forecast of 5.7%Y is now skewed to the upside given a strong entry," Morgan Stanley economists led by Zhipeng Cai wrote.

☆ Premarket stocks: Apple is giving banks a run for their money
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Apple’s savings account is managed through Apple products and users must have Apple’s credit card, simply called Apple Card, to qualify for one. “It’s very much a loyalty play because it’s a multi-level process: To get the Apple credit card you need the phone, and to get the savings account you need the credit card. The Apple savings account through Goldman is also insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. And Apple’s savings account is hardly the best out there, either. UFB Direct offers a savings account with more than a 5% annual percentage yield.

☆ China's economy is on the rebound — and that's good news for 3 of the Club's consumer stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Estee Lauder (EL), Starbucks (SBUX) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN) are the Club's consumer discretionary stocks with the greatest exposure to the Chinese market. Shares of Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn — up roughly 3.5%, 9.2% and 37.5% year-to-date, respectively — edged up on the news Tuesday. For Estee Lauder, a leader in luxury skin care, makeup and fragrances, China accounts for about a third of total revenue. The Club's take China's latest economic data highlights our investment case for our three big consumer companies doing business in the country. However, we're pleased to see a robust rebound in consumer activity in the world's second largest economy, signifying a positive growth outlook for Estee Lauder, Starbucks and Wynn Resorts.

☆ Some travel is 'off the charts' expensive, experts say. Here are 3 ways to cut some costs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

D3sign | Moment | Getty ImagesInternational travel costs have hit record highsThe Eiffel Tower and Seine River at sunrise in Paris. The so-called "revenge travel" dynamic has helped to push up prices, perhaps most acutely for travel abroad. These are record-high prices, Berg said. People should be prepared not just for a busy travel season, but an expensive travel season. Sally French travel expert at NerdWalletThis summer is expected to be the busiest on record for international travel, the U.S. State Department said in March.

☆ China GDP: Economy shakes off Covid legacy to grow 4.5% in Q1
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

But private investment barely budged and youth unemployment surged to the second highest level on record, indicating the country’s private sector employers are still wary about longer term prospects. Retail sales jumped 10.6% in March from a year earlier, the highest level of growth since June 2021. The country’s GDP will grow 5.2% this year and 5.1% in 2024, it predicted. If adjustments are made to account for the impact of delayed economic activity, GDP growth in the first quarter could have been just 2.6%, he said. For example, private investment was extremely weak.

☆ China March new home prices rise at fastest pace in 21 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary March new home prices +0.5% m/m vs +0.3% m/m in FebBEIJING, April 15 (Reuters) - China's new home prices rose in March at the fastest pace in 21 months, official data showed on Saturday, as continued government policy support helped prop up demand amid a broader push for an economic recovery. New home prices in March edged up 0.5% month-on-month after a 0.3% rise in February, marking the fastest pace since June 2021 and the third consecutive monthly rise, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Prices fell 0.8% year-on-year, down on an annual basis for the 11th straight month. Household loans, mostly mortgages, jumped to 1.24 trillion yuan ($180.52 billion) in March from 208.1 billion yuan in February, with medium- to long-term household loans rising to 634.8 billion yuan from 86.3 billion yuan in February, according to Reuters' calculations based on central bank data. China will release property sales and investment data for March on Tuesday, along with economic activity data and first quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

☆ Why the surge in summer travel airfare, hotel prices is not likely to slow down
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-15 | by ( Ian Thomas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Travel is showing no signs of cooling off this summer, as both demand and prices are expected to stay high. "There's still a lot of pent of demand going back to the pandemic," Booking Holdings CEO Glenn Fogel said on "Squawk on the Street" last week. He also pointed to the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which are now within a few percentage points compared to the number of travelers seen in 2019. That demand has kept prices high, Fogel said, noting recent trips he's taken. "[Consumers] have gone three years without having the experiences they want, including last summer," Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian said on "Squawk Box" earlier this week.

"I was previously considered wealthy in the area," said Liu, who also owns some commercial property in the northeastern city of Liaoyuan. In play now in China, where around 70% of household wealth is in property, this phenomenon is weighing on the post-pandemic recovery of household consumption, which Chinese policymakers have vowed to make a more prominent driver of economic growth. Capital Economics estimates net household wealth declined 4.3% overall last year, due to falling house and stock prices, the first decline since at least 2001. Indeed, deposits rose a further 9.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter of this year. ($1 = 6.8376 Chinese yuan renminbi)Additional reporting by Shuyan Wang; Editing by Marius Zaharia and Kim CoghillOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ David’s Bridal laying off over 9,000 workers
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Parija Kavilanz | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —David’s Bridal, one of largest sellers of wedding gowns in the United States, is laying off thousands of workers nationwide, according to a notice filed to the Pennsylvania Department of Labor. “The scale of these layoffs suggest that David’s Bridal is in crisis mode,” said Neil Saunders, managing director at GlobalData Retail. David’s Bridal filed for bankruptcy in 2018 after being laden with growing debt and declining sales of wedding dresses. The following year, David’s Bridal, which operates more than 300 stores, said it had anticipated weddings to return with a vengeance because of pent-up demand. But the layoffs at David’s Bridal come amid ongoing job losses across retail, tech and other industries.

☆ This maker of CPAP machines can gain market share as rival deals with a recall, Mizuho says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An ongoing product recall for one of ResMed's top competitors opens up a big opportunity for the continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) equipment maker, according to Mizuho. Philips Respironics, a rival CPAP hardware maker, is still contending with a 2021 recall of its products, leaving the door open for ResMed to grow its market share, Petrone said. "In aggregate, we see RMD settling at nearly ~60% permanent sleep device share, up from ~50%, as a result of the extended Philips CPAP recall," Petrone wrote on Thursday. Petrone added that ResMed has maintained its market share from a decline in Philips for longer than expected. RMD YTD mountain RMD in 2023 Mizuho pointed toward proprietary survey data that indicated pent-up demand and a rebound in U.S. volume.

☆ JPMorgan sees Turkey lira diving towards 30 per dollar after elections
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - Turkey's lira is likely to drop sharply and could near 30 to the dollar following next month's elections, bankers at JPMorgan have predicted, if it looks like only modest changes will be made to its unorthodox economic policies. Turkey's tightly contested presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 are perhaps the most consequential in the century-long history of the republic. JPMorgan's analysts said that macro adjustments were expected regardless of the results but laid out two scenarios based on the degree of commitment to more orthodox policies, such as interest rate rises to cool inflation. "Initially, lira depreciates, driven by pent-up pressures of the large stimulus ahead of the elections. "A scenario of a return to orthodox macroeconomic policies could set lira on a real appreciation trend back towards its fair value," JPMorgan said.

☆ Here's what to buy — and where — as falling earnings and a looming recession take their toll on US stocks, according to $1.1 trillion asset manager Nuveen
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

While she's cautious on stocks, Malik says some struggling areas could be ready for a comeback. Nuveen, the asset management unit of financial planner TIAA, believes that even as a recession approaches, some of the market's recent losers are almost ready for a comeback. "Certain equity sectors that were among the hardest hit by rising rates over the past year may now be poised to benefit," Malik wrote. "We think better opportunities exist by taking on credit risk rather than duration risk," she said. "We see value across credit sectors, especially in high yield and loans, and would emphasize that we generally favor relatively higher quality segments within individual credit sectors."

☆ Here are Friday's biggest analyst calls: Amazon, VF Corp, Deere, Netflix, Rivian, Nvidia & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Here are Friday's biggest calls on Wall Street: Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy Bank of America said it's standing by its buy rating on the stock. "Our Buy rating is based on: 1) positive feedback from our proprietary Sleep survey that points to healthy underlying US volumes, 2) lingering pent-up demand due to US staffing shortages." William Blair reiterates Charles Schwab as outperform William Blair said it's standing by its outperform rating on the stock heading into earnings next week. Barclays reiterates Disney as equal weight Barclays said it sees slowing streaming growth heading into Disney earnings in early May. " Stifel reiterates Microsoft as buy Stifel said it's standing by its buy rating on Microsoft heading into earnings later this month.

☆ Futures edge higher ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures up: Dow 0.19%, S&P 0.13%, Nasdaq 0.06%April 12 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited key inflation data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for clues on whether U.S. interest rates are near their peak. The Labor Department data, which will be published at 8:30 a.m. US inflation, Fed rates and marketsMinutes from the U.S. central bank's policy meeting in March will be watched closely by investors later in the day for fresh clues on the trajectory of interest rates. The Fed in March raised rates by 25 bps and signaled it was on the verge of pausing further rate hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were up 64 points, or 0.19%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 5.25 points, or 0.13%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 8 points, or 0.06%.

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for March 2023 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But swings in gasoline and other energy mask price pressures that, while easing, remain under the surface, economists said. "It's improving and the economy is cooling, but it's still far from tepid," Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, said of inflation. What drove inflation in March 2023Housing was a "notable" inflation driver in March and over the past year, according to the BLS. The shelter index increased 8.2% in the last year, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in consumer prices after stripping out the volatile energy and food categories. "It signals the food inflation fever has been broken," Zandi said.

☆ Elasticity of travel demand in focus as U.S. carriers report earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-11 | by ( Rajesh Kumar Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

CHICAGO, April 11 (Reuters) - Major U.S. airlines are expected to reiterate the strength of travel demand when earnings season gets underway later this week. Pent-up travel demand as well as constrained airline capacity due to shortages of aircraft, spare parts, and labor have, thus far, allowed the industry to avoid the fallout from a slowdown in the broader economy. Chief executives of major carriers last month rushed to reassure jittery investors after a profit warning from United Airlines (UAL.O) stoked worries about the industry's pricing power. The industry has been leaning on soaring consumer demand to mitigate higher labor and fuel costs with higher fares. "The price elasticity of demand over economic cycles will be the ultimate arbiter of the industry's ability to cover increasing costs," Moody's said.

☆ Here are Thursday's biggest analyst calls: Netflix, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, FedEx, Pinterest & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Raymond James upgrades FedEx to outperform from market perform Raymond James said and "undeniable" positive change is underway at the shipping giant. "We are initiating coverage of XPO, one of the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers, in North America, with an Outperform rating and a $44 target price." "We are initiating coverage of Skyworks Solutions, with a Buy rating and $150 target price. Raymond James upgrades Wells Fargo to strong buy from outperform Raymond James said the banking giant is well positioned in the current environment. Raymond James initiates Pinterest as outperform Raymond James said it sees "steady user growth" for Pinterest.

☆ Mortgage rates fall for the fourth week in a row
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Homebuyers benefited from another week of falling mortgage rates, with the average rate dropping for the fourth week in a row, according to data from Freddie Mac released Thursday. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.28% in the week ending April 6, down from 6.32% the week before. “Mortgage rates continue to trend down entering the traditional spring homebuying season,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Mortgage rates tend to move with the 10-year Treasury yield, which ticked up this week, but the spread between the two narrowed as mortgage rates moved down and the market continued to navigate ongoing economic uncertainty.”“Potential buyers continue to face elevated mortgage rates and home prices, making buying less accessible than a year ago,” said Jones. Pent-up housing demand is evident with every gain in affordability, whether it be softening prices or lower mortgage rates.”

☆ Millennial and Gen Z travelers have bigger budgets but seek deals, Hopper app says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Doyinsola Oladipo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Eduardo MunozNEW YORK, April 6 (Reuters) - Most Millennial and Generation Z travelers are planning bigger 2023 travel budgets but also growing more cost-conscious when booking flights and hotel accommodations, according to travel booking app Hopper. Some 84% of Hopper users, primarily Millennial and Gen Z travelers, plan to spend more on travel in 2023, according to the company's 2023 Travel Trends Report which surveyed 1,500 Hopper users. About 70% of Hopper users are between ages 18 and 35. "It's not to say that Millennial and Gen Z travelers just have unlimited budgets and they're spending all their money on travel," said Hopper economist, Hayley Berg. Although Millennial and Gen Z travelers booked in 2019 travel earlier than the rest of the population, they are growing more averse to booking, the company added.

☆ U.S. passport delays may be four months long — and could get worse. Here's what to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. State Department must also restaff positions that were reassigned or eliminated as passport demand cratered in 2020. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken testifies during a House Appropriations Committee hearing on the State Department 2024 budget on March 23, 2023 in Washington. (A traditional passport — a passport book — costs $130 to renew; there's an additional $35 acceptance fee for first-time applicants.) Importantly, Americans may not be allowed to travel if their passport expires within a few months after their trip. The State Department website has information about passport and visa requirements for specific countries.

☆ This construction stock could gain more than 20% as inflation pressures recede, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Vulcan Materials shares should see a better year as inflation cools, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Jerry Revich upgraded the construction stock to buy from neutral. And unit profitability, which he said is a key stock price driver, should accelerate as inflation stabilizes but prices remain elevated. While private construction spending is tied to the U.S. banking sector, he said aggregate volumes are down around 10% compared with the same period a year ago. And public construction spending should be strong, he said, as pent up demand from Covid years turn to contracts, he said.

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