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Homebuilder sentiment falls for 11 months straight
  + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHomebuilder sentiment falls for 11 months straightCNBC's Diana Olick joins 'Squawk on the Street' to report on the continued drop in homebuilder sentiment numbers, highlighting regional trends and the increased construction cost.
Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family housing market fell to the lowest level in a decade in November, as builders continue to struggle with higher costs for labor and materials and lower demand from homebuyers. A monthly sentiment index from the National Association of Home Builders dropped 5 points from October to 33. The NAHB said 59% of builders reported using incentives, a significant increase from September to November. In November, 25% of builders reported paying points for buyers, up from 13% in September. In the South, it fell 7 points to 42 and declined 5 points to 29 in the West.
The decline in home prices will accelerate even as sales are headed for a bottom early next year, according to Pantheon Macroeconomics. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "The good news for homebuilders is that a floor is coming," Pantheon economist Kieran Clancy said in a note. "Mortgage rates have peaked, suggesting that demand will flatten in the months ahead, albeit at an extremely depressed level. Accordingly, we expect housing starts and sales to bottom out early next year, even as the decline in home prices accelerates."
LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The moment of truth is almost here for Britain's new prime minister Rishi Sunak and finance minister Jeremy Hunt. British markets have regained some poise after the carnage triggered by September's fiscal statement, but as the UK slips into recession, the outlook is far from rosy. Here's a look at some of the likely winners and losers from Thursday's budget. "Domestic UK equities are being treated with caution by investors both domestically and internationally," he said. snapshotA CRUDE TARGETEnergy companies have reported bumper profits this year, thanks to soaring crude oil and gas prices.
Residential builders are feeling the pinch of higher financing costs of their own. He estimated that, in aggregate, developers like him would decrease production by 10% to 20% this year, in a potentially devastating setback for affordable housing. "The failure to act is only made clear a few years later, given the timeline of real-estate development," he said. "In a couple of years from now, we're going to look back and say this was a missed opportunity" to close the affordable housing gap. "Financing can be very targeted towards affordable development and can be subsidized much more aggressively," he said.
Big drop in bond yields impacts mortgage rates
  + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig drop in bond yields impacts mortgage ratesCNBC’s Diana Olick joins Carl Quintanilla and the ‘CNBC Special: Taking stock’ to discuss homebuilder and home goods stocks, even as mortgage rates take a huge leg lower.
Horton Inc (DHI.N) on Wednesday missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and revenue as demand for houses tapered following a spike in mortgage rates amid roaring inflation. U.S. mortgage rates have doubled with aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to contain decades-high inflation, making borrowing less affordable. In another blow to homebuilders, who have enjoyed elevated home prices for a long time due to tight supply, prices slowed in August from the record pace reached in March. "Beginning in June and continuing through today, we have seen a moderation in housing demand caused by significant increases in mortgage interest rates and general economic uncertainty," Chairman Donald R. Horton said in a statement. "While these pressures may persist for some time, the supply of homes at affordable price points remains limited, and demographics supporting housing demand remain favorable."
Meta Platforms — The stock jumped 8% after the company announced it will lay off more than 11,000 employees. News Corp — Shares slid 5% after the company reported a slight miss on its fiscal first quarter earnings, compared to FactSet estimates. AMC Entertainment — Shares dropped 9.8% after the company reported another quarterly loss as operational costs increased. SeaWorld Entertainment — The stock fell 8% after the company reported weaker-than-expected earnings or $1.99 per share on revenue or $565 million. Roblox — Shares tumbled more than 15% after the company reported a bigger loss than expected for the third quarter.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJim Cramer explains why investors should keep an eye on homebuilder stocksCNBC's Jim Cramer explains why he thinks DR Horton could be "the key to this market" ahead of the opening bell on Wednesday.
The next frontier: making similar investments to buyers who need help with a down payment. Down-payment investments could help them avoid those costs, which can amount to hundreds of dollars a month. So we're gearing up for that," Riccitelli said, adding that down-payment investments represented "a massive opportunity." Indeed, one of the industry's trailblazers, Unison, stopped offering down-payment investments earlier in the pandemic, choosing instead to focus on traditional home-equity agreements. "One of the big mortgage companies is going to have to get in on it," the executive added.
[1/2] Brazil's former President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Sao Paulo Governor candidate Fernando Haddad react at an election night gathering on the day of the Brazilian presidential election run-off, in Sao Paulo, Brazil, October 30, 2022. Defeated President Jair Bolsonaro had not made public remarks more than 17 hours after the race was called. Some of his key allies have recognized publicly that Lula had won the race, easing concerns of contested election results. "There will be no transition problem, even if Bolsonaro reacts badly, most of his allies have already recognized Lula's victory". Francisco Levy, chief strategist at Empiricus Investimentos, said a favorable international reaction to Lula may help markets on the short term.
Several companies have reported earnings below expectations or are providing weak guidance. JetBlue reported earnings lower than expected, but sales were in-line. General Electric was trading up premarket Tuesday, even though earnings were short of forecasts and it cut its full year outlook. Corning was in-line but provided weak guidance. The homebuilder posted earnings and revenues below expectations, yet the numbers were still strong: revenues up 13%, earnings up 44%.
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Homebuilders outperform over the last six months
  + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHomebuilders outperform over the last six monthsA look at homebuilder stocks, which have outperformed over the last six months. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan, Karen Finerman and Jeff Mills.
Build-to-rent communities skip the intermediary and go straight to the homebuilder. While typical single-family rental strategies, pioneered by Blackstone in the aftermath of the Great Recession, are inherently tied to the housing market, build-to-rent is not. In the eyes of private equity, there's no difference between build-to-rent communities and apartment blocks. If you value Cypress Bay as an apartment building, instead of a collection of homes, Fundrise got a good deal. Fundrise is still working on deals, Miller said, with a deal pipeline stretching out to 2025.
Average 30-year fixed mortgage rates increased slightly this week, according to Freddie Mac. The housing market has been slowing for some time now as high mortgage rates combined with high prices have pushed many buyers out of the market. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage calculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year fixed mortgage ratesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.94%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year fixed mortgage ratesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.23%, an increase from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data.
In late 2021, a wildfire tore through the Boulder suburbs and destroyed nearly 1,100 homes. Roughly 10 months after that blaze, known as the Marshall Fire, the vast majority of the burned lots remain vacant. "Open space with the ability to build what you want — that really doesn't exist in Boulder County," Jennifer Eiss, a Boulder real-estate agent with Compass, said. The median sale price for Marshall Fire lots that sold in the third quarter was $416,000, according to MLS data. Newer, more-sustainable building methods, combined with an emphasis on protective borders around homes, could help mitigate fire risks, Pechet said.
Lumber prices have rallied 26% so far in October, but further gains may be limited as the housing market slows down. "At 7% interest rates, I wouldn't expect lumber to do much for a while," MaterialsXChange's Ashley Boeckholt said. In tandem with the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes that started in March of this year, mortgage rates have soared. That's good news for homebuilders, as long as demand returns to the housing market, but one economist is skeptical. And that plays right into Boeckholt's view of a lumber market that is likely to flatline from here.
Like prospective homeowners, homebuilders aren't happy with the housing market, either. The housing market isn't working for most Americans. In September, residential homebuilding slowed as housing starts decreased 8.1% from August levels, according to a report from the US Census Bureau that was released on Wednesday. During the month, single-family housing starts decreased 4.7% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 892,000. "This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline for single-family starts," Robert Dietz, the chief economist for the National Association of Homebuilders, said.
Mortgage demand, which has suffered four straight months of declines, fell last week to the lowest level since 1997, as interest rates continued to rise. Interest rates were so low during the first two years of the Covid pandemic that the vast majority of borrowers with higher rates already refinanced. As potential homebuyers struggle to afford a house, given higher interest rates and still high home prices, more are now turning to adjustable-rate loans, which offer lower rates. Mortgage rates moved even higher this week, with another reading from Mortgage News Daily putting the 30-year fixed at 7.15% on Tuesday. Higher rates and falling buyer demand caused homebuilder sentiment to drop again on the National Association of Home Builders index.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) closed 0.24% up and the domestically focussed FTSE 250 (.FTMC) ended 0.15% higher. "At the end of the day, the UK government blinked, while the BoE has seen its credibility restored," said Darby. He added that there is room for a sizeable change in sentiment towards domestically exposed FTSE 250 which had been battered recently. Shell (SHEL.L) is among a number of companies joining a second bidding round to acquire Danish biogas producer Nature Energy, for around $2 billion sources familiar with the matter said, as energy firms race to boost low-carbon businesses. Bellway Plc (BWY.L) slipped 2.2% as the homebuilder warned of moderating demand, pressured by rising mortgage rates.
The bond market splashes some cold water on the stock market's attempt at upside follow-through to Monday's strong but familiar one-day pop. It happened just as the S & P 500 revisited the "island" left by its early-October rally. The October high of 3,806 remains an initial mile-marker with tests all the way up to the 200-day average around 4,150. This is a precondition for a serious rally that challenges the entrenched downtrend, but not in itself enough to make one happen. It's good to have a high wall of worry for stocks to climb, barring serious market instability.
Homebuilder sentiment drops eight points in October
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Diana Olick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHomebuilder sentiment drops eight points in OctoberCNBC's Diana Olick joins 'Squawk on the Street' to report homebuilder sentiment dropped eight points in October to 38, according to the National Association of Homebuilders Index.
SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 up 0.8%, FTSE 250 adds 0.7%Oct 18 (Reuters) - UK's blue-chip and mid-cap indexes hit their highest levels in more than a week on Tuesday, lifted by a historic reversal of the government's unfunded tax cut plans and earnings optimism that boosted Wall Street indexes overnight. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) gained 0.8% by 0713 GMT and the mid-cap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) rose 0.7%. The FTSE 100 hit its highest since Oct. 10, while the FTSE 250 rose to a level not seen since Oct. 7. U.S. stock indexes closed sharply higher on Monday after Bank of America posted solid results, spurring earnings optimism. Its shares had hit an eight-year low recently as homebuilders came under pressure from concerns about surging mortgage rates denting affordability.
Homebuilder sentiment in the single-family home market has fallen to half what it was just six months ago as mortgage rates climb, according to a new report. "High mortgage rates ... have significantly weakened demand, particularly for first-time and first-generation prospective home buyers," said NAHB Chairman Jerry Konter, a homebuilder and developer from Savannah, Georgia. Of the index's three components, current sales conditions slid 9 points to 45, and sales expectations in the next six months dropped 11 points to 35. On a three-month moving average, the sentiment score in the Northeast fell 3 points to 48. In the South it fell 7 points to 49 and in the West declined 7 points to 34.
SummarySummary Companies FTSE 100 on longest losing streak since July 2019Taylor Wimpey down on ex-dividend tradingHousing stocks hover at near decade-lowsFTSE 100 down 0.5%, FTSE 250 off 0.1%Oct 13 (Reuters) - UK's FTSE 100 extended its losing run to a seventh straight session on Thursday, as homebuilders took a fresh hit after data showed slowing house prices, while investors were cautious ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. The blue-chip FTSE 100 index (.FTSE) fell 0.5%, setting it up for its longest losing streak since July 2019. The midcap FTSE 250 (.FTMC) slipped 0.1% to hold near May 2020 lows. "Add to that all the confidence issues about the direction of fiscal and monetary policies (and) it's a pretty poisonous combination." read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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