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☆ Hong Kong stocks enter bear market territory as China reopening optimism continues to fade
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Zhang Wei | China News Service | Getty ImagesStock Chart Icon Stock chart iconThe Hang Seng Tech index has already fallen by more than 25% from its January peak. That's a stark contrast to the reopening optimism that had once driven Asia-Pacific's benchmark MSCI Asia Pacific index to a bull market. watch nowMorgan Stanley analysts said in a May 17 report that a weak reading in that manufacturing measure "has been a solid precursor to policy easing." "If growth does not accelerate sufficiently to narrow the output gap, social stability risk may rise and eventually trigger more meaningful stimulus," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the note. The index for services activity remained in expansionary territory at 54.5, but marked a second-straight month of decline.

Persons: Zhang Wei, Morgan Stanley Organizations: China News Service, Getty, Hang, Seng China Enterprises, Analysts, China, CNBC, National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Hong, Wan Chai district, Asia, Hong Kong

☆ Consumers are starting to fire up China's pandemic-battered economy, two ETF experts find
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The National Bureau of Statistics of China reports retail sales have been increasing since last November. "We're seeing the incremental rebound from the Chinese consumer," the firm's chief investment officer told " ETF Edge " this week. China's pandemic-battered economy is starting to see consumers open their wallets wider, according to KraneShares' Brendan Ahern. "Domestic travel [is] rebounding … but we've yet to see that from the international sector," the ETF provider's CEO said. Rhind told CNBC in a special interview later in the week that international travel from China could start to rebound this summer following a sluggish start.

☆ China industrial profits tumble 18% in April as demand sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BEIJING, May 27 (Reuters) - Profits at China's industrial firms slumped in the first four months of 2023, official data showed on Saturday, as companies continued to struggle with margin pressures and soft demand amid a faltering economic recovery. In April alone, industrial firms posted a 18.2% drop in profit year-on-year, according to the NBS, which only occasionally gives monthly figures. Chinese companies are struggling with both weak demand at home and softening demand in the country's major export markets. Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang vowed more targeted measures to expand domestic demand and stabilise external demand in an effort to promote a sustained economic rebound. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.89 million) from their main operations.

☆ China's industrial profits tumble 18% in April as demand sputters
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Profits at China's industrial firms slumped in the first four months of 2023, official data showed on Saturday, as companies continued to struggle with margin pressures and soft demand amid a faltering economic recovery. In April alone, industrial firms posted a 18.2% drop in profit year-on-year, according to the NBS, which only occasionally gives monthly figures. Chinese companies are struggling with both weak demand at home and softening demand in the country's major export markets. Earlier this month, Premier Li Qiang vowed more targeted measures to expand domestic demand and stabilize external demand in an effort to promote a sustained economic rebound. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.89 million) from their main operations.

☆ China's economy is growing again. So why are investors dumping stocks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Investors trimmed their exposure to China amid economic uncertainty in the country, rising geopolitical tensions and Beijing’s crackdown on international consulting firms. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index has lost more than 5% since April 18. Another concern for global investors is the country’s “fundamental investability,” he said, referring to geopolitical and Chinese policy risks. Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, one of the world’s largest pension funds, has closed its Hong Kong-based China equity investment team. “The more cracks appear in Western economies,” the more global investors will need to put money into Chinese assets, he added.

☆ The free online tax-filing system IRS is testing doesn't include automated returns — but pre-populated ones may be possible, research shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The IRS is preparing to test a free online direct filing system for some taxpayers — and while pre-populated returns with certain details already filled in aren't part of the initial plan, research shows it may be possible for certain filers. As directed by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the pilot program will launch during the 2024 filing season for some taxpayers to assess the platform's broader viability. "We do not expect pre-population or pre-determining tax obligations to be part of it," IRS commissioner Daniel Werfel told reporters on a press call Tuesday, noting the project's limited scope. The paper was based on a random sample of roughly 350,000 individual tax returns from 2019, and accuracy was highest among low- to moderate-income filers. Errors were more likely to occur as itemized deductions increased.

Total electrical generation increased by 128 billion kilowatt-hours (4.9%) between January and April compared with the same period in 2022, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Increases from thermal power plants (+83 billion kWh), wind farms (+64 billion kWh), solar farms (+16 billion kWh) and nuclear units (+6 billion kWh) more than offset reduced hydro-electric output (-42 billion kWh). Renewables wind and solar provided 14% of generation up from just 3% in 2014, while nuclear supplied 5% up from 2%. Ensuring sufficient electricity generation to meet rapidly rising demand from industry and households is the more urgent priority in the short term while reducing emissions is a more long-term goal. INDUSTRY FOCUSOn the consumption side, electricity demand growth in the first four months shows a clear emphasis on industry rather than households.

☆ China's home prices rise at slower pace as demand ebbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Summary April new home prices +0.4% m/m vs +0.5% m/m in MarchApril prices -0.2% y/y vs -0.8% y/y in MarchMore policy stimulus may be needed, analysts sayBEIJING, May 17 (Reuters) - China's new home prices rose for the fourth straight month in April but at a slower pace, heightening fears that pent-up demand after the country's economic reopening is fading. New home prices in April rose 0.4% month-on-month versus a 0.5% gain in March, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data on Wednesday. Beijing's aggressive stimulus policies to the crisis-hit property sector since November have boosted sentiment over the past few months but homebuyers are increasingly worried about job security. Home prices in tier-two and three cities also rose at a slower pace in April. April money and credit data last week suggested growth of households' medium-to-long term loans, mostly mortgages, decelerated in April, in line with slower property transactions.

☆ China's new home prices rise at slower pace in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary April new home prices +0.4% m/m vs +0.5% m/m in MarchApril prices -0.2% y/y vs -0.8% y/y in MarchBEIJING, May 17 (Reuters) - China's new home prices rose for the fourth straight month in April but at a slower pace, official data showed on Wednesday, as government efforts to stabilise the sector lifted sentiment after the country's abrupt exit from COVID curbs late last year. New home prices in April edged up 0.4% month-on-month versus a 0.5% gain in March, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. April's slower pace of home price gains, along with bearish data on Tuesday showing property investment and sales sharply falling, add to concerns over the strength of the recovery in a sector crucial to the health of China's economy. From a year earlier, prices fell 0.2%, the 12th month of decline in annual terms. Beijing's aggressive stimulus policies to the crisis-hit property sector since November have boosted sentiment over the past few months.

☆ China’s Youth Unemployment Tops 20% Amid Signs of Stalling Recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Fresh graduates attended a job fair in Yantai, China, earlier this year. Photo: Cfoto/Zuma PressHONG KONG—China’s youth unemployment rate rose above 20% for the first time since Beijing began tracking the data five years ago, the latest sign of uncertainty around the country’s economic recovery. A bundle of new economic indicators for April, released Tuesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, also showed measures of retail sales, factory production and fixed-asset investment all falling short of economists’ expectations.

☆ China’s Recovery Loses Steam, Signaling Trouble for Global Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

China has been the most populous nation in the world since at least 1750. But in April, India’s population is set to surpass China’s. WSJ examines what this shift in population could mean for the future of each country, as well as the global economy. Photo illustration: Jacob Anderson Nelson/WSJHONG KONG—China’s post-Covid growth spurt is sputtering and its youth unemployment rate hit a record high, signaling trouble for a recovery that was expected to boost global growth. Investment in the country’s property sector also dropped in the first four months of the year.

☆ China April industrial output rises 5.6%, retail sales jump 18.4%; below expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BEIJING, May 16 (Reuters) - China's industrial output grew 5.6% in April from a year earlier, official data showed on Tuesday, missing expectations by a large margin but accelerating from a 3.9% gain seen in March. Retail sales jumped 18.4%, missing forecasts for a 21.0% increase. It was significantly faster than the 10.6% increase in March and marked the quickest growth since March 2021. Fixed asset investment expanded 4.7% in the first four months of 2023 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 5.5% rise. Reporting by Albee Zhang, Ellen Zhang and Joe Cash Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

It was well below expectations for a 10.9% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts although it marked the quickest growth rate since September 2022. Retail sales jumped 18.4%, speeding up sharply from a 10.6% increase in March for their fastest increase since March 2021. The growth target for this year is set at a low level, which leaves room for the government to wait and see." China has set a modest growth target of about 5% in 2023, after badly missing last year's goal. ($1 = 6.9121 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Albee Zhang and Kevin Yao Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Here's why the US economy is in much better shape than people think, according to top economist Paul Krugman
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is doing better than people think despite widespread recession fears, Paul Krugman said. The top economist pointed to a strong labor market and falling inflation as signs of economic health. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. In an op-ed for the New York Times on Monday, Krugman pointed to widespread pessimism about the US economy, despite indicators that show economic activity is fairly healthy. The odds of a future recession have also been widely publicized through media reports, which could be creating a negative bias.

☆ China's carbon emissions to hit new record in 2023 on economic rebound. But they could peak soon, report says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Hong Kong CNN —China’s carbon emissions will likely hit a new record in 2023 on the back of an economic rebound, but a rapid expansion in green energy will enable its emissions to peak soon, a global energy think tank said on Friday. However, the emissions could peak soon, as China has accelerated its clean energy push and installed record amounts of solar and wind power capacity, the analysts pointed out. Coal production surged 11% in 2022 from 2021, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This will lead to a sharp increase in bank lending and investment, particularly for manufacturing, transportation and energy production, they added. “When low-carbon power growth matches — and then exceeds — the annual increase in electricity demand, the sector’s CO2 emissions will peak,” they said.

☆ The No. 1 city to find a remote job, according to new research—it isn't New York or San Francisco
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Morgan Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The job market for remote workers might be shrinking in some cities, but it's flourishing in others. The researchers behind the paper — called "Remote Work across Jobs, Companies and Space"— looked at more than 250 million job vacancies offering remote or hybrid work posted between January 2014 and January 2023. London, Sydney and Toronto — the most populous cities in the U.K., Australia and Canada, respectively — have seen some of the biggest increases in remote work, the report found. In 2022, for example, "one in four new job postings in Washington, D.C. advertised remote work arrangements, compared to one in fourteen in Perth, Australia," the report notes. The number of available remote jobs also fluctuates across regions: In the U.S., for example, remote jobs have become less common in southern cities like Savannah and Miami Beach, compared to northeast and western cities like San Francisco, Boston and Colorado.

☆ Chinese Consumer Inflation Slows to Lowest Level in Two Years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Stella Yifan Xie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy rose 0.1% in April from a year earlier, according to official data. Photo: wu hao/ShutterstockHONG KONG—Consumer prices in China rose at their slowest pace in more than two years, reflecting uncertainties in the economy that threaten to limit a consumption-led recovery from three years of strict Covid-19 measures. Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy rose 0.1% in April from a year earlier, easing further from March’s 0.7% year-over-year increase, according to data released Thursday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

☆ Breach of Mental-Health Records Challenges Nation’s Court System
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Catherine Stupp | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +4 min

Hackers posted naked photos of cancer patients online after a February cyberattack on Allentown, Pa.-based Lehigh Valley Health Network. Fifteen prosecutors will go through technical evidence and statements from around 24,000 patients whose data was exposed and some of which was published online, Finnish officials said. Prosecutors will spend an estimated 10 minutes reviewing each report to decide whether to use it in court, Mr. Vainio said. The logistics of a trial will be challenging because Finnish law requires courts to accommodate all victims who want to be present, Mr. Vainio said. Money, however, won’t address all the harms to victims, Mr. Vainio said.

The consumer price index (CPI) in April rose 0.1% year-on-year, the lowest rate since February 2021, and cooling from the 0.7% annual gain seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. Reuters GraphicsPBOC TESTEDOverall inflationary pressures remain low with the core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, up 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month. The statistics bureau attributed the weaker consumer inflation to the base effect. Vegetable prices extended their decline to 13.5% and pork, a major driver of CPI, slowed its price growth to 4.0% from 9.6% in March. "Securing income growth and improving consumer confidence remain key policy priorities for delivering a more sustainable consumption recovery," said Pang.

☆ China's consumer inflation slows to over 2-year low, factory gate deflation deepens
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BEIJING, May 11 (Reuters) - China's consumer prices rose at the slowest pace in more than two years in April, while factory gate deflation deepened, data showed on Thursday, suggesting more stimulus may be needed to boost a patchy post-COVID economic recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) for the month rose 0.1% year-on-year, the lowest rate since February 2021, and cooling from the 0.7% annual gain seen in March, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said. The producer price index (PPI) fell at the fastest clip since May 2020 and was down for a seventh consecutive month, declining 3.6% from a year earlier after a 2.5% drop the previous month. Month-on-month, the PPI fell 0.5% after remaining flat the previous month, while the CPI fell 0.1% in April after a 0.3% fall in March, bigger than a flat reading in a Reuters poll. Overall inflationary pressures remain low with the core consumer inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, up 0.7%, unchanged from the previous month.

☆ Consumer prices in China rose 0.1% in April, the slowest rate in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) building in Beijing, China, on Tuesday, April 18, 2023. Source: BloombergChina's consumer price index rose 0.1% in April year-on-year, the slowest since early 2021. Economists surveyed by Reuters expected to see consumer prices rise 0.4% from a year ago and remain unchanged from the previous month. Inflation in China was led by food and services, according to the National Bureau of Statistics – food prices rose by 0.4% and service prices rose 1% from a year ago. That's a stark contrast to the latest U.S. inflation data overnight which showed consumer prices rose 4.9% in April – easing in the wake of the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by hiking rates 10 consecutive times.

☆ China's deflation worries deepen as consumer prices rise only 0.1% in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The producer price index, which measures factory-gate prices, declined by 3.6%, marking the biggest contraction in three years. The weak property sector recovery likely has exerted “persistent” downward pressure on the factory-gate prices, they added. A slump in the property sector affects demand for key raw materials such as steel and cement, which are key parts of the producer price index. Producer deflation will likely deteriorate, with the PPI expected to drop further by 3.9% on falling global commodity prices. Deflation is bad for the economy because, in such an environment, consumers and companies may put off spending in anticipation of prices falling further, which would only exacerbate economic problems.

☆ Opinion | Government Budget Deficits Can Pay for Themselves
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Peter Coy | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Now some other economists have demonstrated a second mechanism by which a government could run deficits and never have to pay for them. Unlike Blanchard’s mechanism, it doesn’t depend on the relationship of interest rates to economic growth. Their research came out last month as a working paper released by the National Bureau of Economic Research. “Can Deficits Finance Themselves?” is the paper’s provocative title — evoking, to me anyway, the Laffer Curve theory that tax cuts can pay for themselves. The economists concluded that “deficits contribute to their own financing via two channels.” First, they can accelerate economic growth, which generates more tax revenue.

☆ China's exports rose 8.5%, continuing its growth streak at a slower pace
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's exports grew 8.5% in April in U.S. dollar terms, marking a second-straight month of growth, while imports fell 7.9% compared with a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters estimated exports would rise 8% in April, while imports were forecast to remain unchanged. In March, imports declined 1.4% year-on-year while exports saw a surprise jump of 14.8%, government data showed. Goldman Sachs economists expected to see "the dissipation of this seasonal bias to slow export growth in April," they wrote in a note earlier this month previewing China's trade data. "China is past the fastest stage of its reopening," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a separate Friday note.

☆ This MIT economist helps decide when recessions officially begin and end. Here's why those dates matter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Annie Nova | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

As the president of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member on the Business Cycle Dating Committee, James Poterba helps determine when a recession officially starts and ends. With Federal Reserve economists predicting that the economy will enter a slump later this year, I spoke with Poterba about his research on recessions. While NBER doesn't make any forecasts, he still had lots of interesting things to say about our downturn worries. What is the chance that an increase of interest rates is associated, sometime afterwards, with a period of declining economic activity? Or, if you see a large run-up in oil prices, does that typically lead to a recession?

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