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☆ Here are 2 charts that show the American consumer is still going strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Americans are still shelling out cash for discretionary spending, despite concerns of a weakening consumer. Total card spending is likely up 4.5% year-per-year over the past 3 months, Bank of America forecasted. Americans likely ran out of their excess savings last quarter, the San Francisco Fed previously estimated. Bank of AmericaBofA's spending data paints a promising picture of a consumer that's humming along despite an uncertain economic outlook. According to a study from the San Francisco Fed, Americans may have run out of their excess savings at the end of last quarter.

Persons: —, BofA, bode Organizations: Bank of America, San Francisco Fed, Service, Labor, San Francisco Locations: San Francisco Fed

☆ The US needs to hike taxes or slash social programs to rein in the soaring deficit, but probably won't do either, Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US needs to rein in its $1.5 trillion budget deficit, Nobel economist Paul Krugman said. Policymakers can do that either by hiking taxes or slashing spending on social programs. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US needs to deal with its soaring budget deficit, but the only options available for it to do so mean that it probably won't, according to Nobel laureate Paul Krugman. That's because the two paths to getting the deficit under control are: slash spending on social programs, or raise taxes. Meanwhile, the government can narrow the deficit by dialing back some of its welfare programs, like Social Security, or by raising taxes.

Persons: Paul Krugman, —, That's, Krugman, Krugman doesn't, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, New York Times, Social Security, Organization for Economic Co

☆ US stocks rise as investors parse Fed minutes and await September inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks inched higher Wednesday as investors read through the latest Fed minutes. Central bankers remained mostly hawkish on their approach to inflation at the last policy meeting. Central bankers signaled that they would continue to remain cautious on inflation at their last policy meeting, per the latest minutes. Around two-thirds of Fed members predicted one more rate hike before the end of 2023, according to the Fed's dot plot of interest rate expectations. Investors are now looking ahead to the September inflation report, due at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday.

Persons: —, Bill Adams, Adams Organizations: Service, Reserve, Nasdaq, UAW, Comerica Bank, Investors, Dow Jones Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Israel

☆ The Treasury market this week saw its biggest single-day rally since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That's the steepest one-day decline the 10-year Treasury yield has seen since the implosion of SVB in early March, when banking turmoil led investors to flock to US debt in search of safety. The 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide early Wednesday, trading around 4.577%. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors were pushed to sell US Treasuries last week amid rising fears over the US debt balance and higher-for-longer interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched a 16-year-high, capping one of the worst selloffs in market history. Meanwhile, several Fed officials delivered dovish comments on the outlook for interest rates this week, which perked up market sentiment.

Persons: SVB, —, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Service, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Atlanta Fed Locations: Silicon, Israel, Friday's

☆ Inflation could come roaring back 1970s-style. Here are 4 reasons why markets should be concerned, according to Deutsche Bank.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

There is still a risk inflation expectations spiral out of control, Deutsche Bank warned. Monetary policy has already been tightened dramatically, with the Fed having hiked interest rates 525 basis-points to slow surging prices. Long-term inflation expectations also remain close to the Fed's 2% price target, with 1-year and 5-10 year inflation expectations falling between 2%-4%. AdvertisementAdvertisementEasing monetary policy to aid growth may also be out of the question, given how sticky inflation has proven to be. As inflation inches closer to its target, markets put more pressure on the Fed to slash interest rates, as higher borrowing costs weigh heavily on asset prices.

Persons: — Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Fed, Service Locations: Europe

☆ Stocks are bottoming and the market is approaching the perfect buying opportunity for investors, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The perfect opportunity for investors to buy the dip in stocks is approaching, according to Fundstrat's Mark Newton. The S&P 500 will drop to 4,200 before recovering, Newton said on CNBC Tuesday. AdvertisementAdvertisementStocks are in the process of bottoming out, and that means the perfect buying opportunity could soon present itself for investors, according to Fundstrat's global head of technical strategy Mark Newton. Meanwhile, any coming downturn is also likely to be postponed, thanks to unprecedented demand carrying the housing market and the labor market, Newton added. That could take the S&P 500 to a new all-time-high in 2023, Fundstrat's Tom Lee previously predicted.

Persons: Fundstrat's Mark Newton, Newton, That's, —, Mark Newton, Fundstrat, Fundstrat's Tom Lee Organizations: CNBC, Service Locations: Israel

☆ Stocks have more room to fall as a recession, credit event lay ahead before the Fed eases policy, Bank of America warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

That's because a recession and credit event could be in store before the Fed eases monetary policy. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementStocks could have more room to fall, as investors face a possible recession and a credit event before the US central bank pulls back on its restrictive monetary policy, according to Bank of America strategists. In other words, the bank sees more turbulence ahead before stock market investors get their long-awaited dovish pivot from the Fed. Meanwhile, fund managers see a credit event as one of the top risks to the market, Bank of America found in a recent survey.

Persons: Stocks, —, Michael Hartnett, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of America, Service, New, Fed

☆ Bond yields could hit 6% as the Fed is going to keep hiking rates until something breaks, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Key bond yields are likely headed to 6% as the Fed will keep hiking interest rates, TS Lombard said. That's due to recent robust economic data, which could influence the Fed to take interest rates higher. Higher rates risk sparking a recession, especially considering interest rates are already higher than Fed officials think, Blitz said. Markets have panicked in recent weeks as investors try to adjust to a higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Yields on the 10-year US Treasury just rose to their highest level since 2007, briefly touching 4.8% on Friday.

Persons: Lombard, —, Steven Blitz Organizations: stoke, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Lombard, Investors, —

☆ The economy just won't slow down, and it's the worst possible outcome for markets right now
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks slumped and bond yields surged as investors brace for higher for longer interest rates. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy is still burning hot – and it's the worst possible thing for markets to take in right now. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are repricing their interest rate expectations through the rest of the year. Higher rates, and in turn higher bond yields, present a triple whammy, hitting stocks, bonds, and the wider economy.

Persons: Stocks, —, That's, Blanke, Robert Schein, Michelle Cluver Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Dow Jones, Treasury, Wealth, New, Fed

☆ Investors are having a 'panic attack' about the bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But interest rates are unlikely to stay this high for long, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe Federal Reserve has sowed panic among investors and that's led to the latest bout of dysfunction in the bond market, Wall Street experts say. But according to some market experts, the selloff is largely fueled by feelings of panic in the market rather than fundamentals. "Coming out of the last FOMC meeting two weeks ago, I think that's really when the bond market broke down," Michele added. AdvertisementAdvertisement"This is clearly a panic attack," market veteran Komal Sri-Kumar said to CNBC on the selloff in bonds.

Persons: Treasurys, Tom Lee, —, that's, Jerome Powell, It's, Powell, Bob Michele, Michele, Komal, Kumar, it's, there's, Lee Organizations: Service, Wall, Treasury, Asset, CNBC Locations: Silicon, Spain, Germany

☆ US stocks trade lower as investors look ahead to Friday jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks ended the day lower as investors looked ahead to the September jobs report. Investors are hoping to see a softer employment picture, which could influence the Fed to dial back rates. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks moved slightly lower on Thursday as investors looked ahead to the September jobs report on Friday. Wall Street hopes to see a softer picture of the labor market, which could influence the Fed to dial back interest rates. Friday's jobs report is expected to show a 170,000 increase in payrolls, according to economists polled by Dow Jones, slightly lower than the 187,000 payrolls reported in August.

Persons: —, Dow Jones Organizations: Investors, Service, Treasury, Dow Jones Locations: payrolls

☆ The odds the US will avoid a recession may be dwindling, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The US's chances of avoiding a recession just got smaller, according to Mohamed El-Erian. The New York Fed has priced in a 56% chance of a recession happening by September 2024. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere are two reasons why America's odds of avoiding a recession may be dwindling, according to top economist Mohamed El-Erian. There is a material risk of this leading to higher inflation for a broader range of goods and services," El-Erian wrote. "While markets are adjusting fast to higher rates, that of the real economy is at much earlier phase with now a much bumpier road ahead."

Persons: Mohamed El, —, Erian, there's, they've Organizations: New York Fed, Service, Allianz, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, West Texas, Energy, of Labor Statistics Locations: El, Brent

☆ Stocks will be significantly higher by year-end, and high bond yields and inflation aren't as bad as they seem, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are still on track to end the year "significantly higher," Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. By year-end, I expect markets to be at a significantly higher level," Lee said in a video to Fundstrat clients on Wednesday. He pointed to higher bond yields and still-high inflation, which have worried investors and helped stoke a recent sell-off in equities. Lower inflation spells good news for the economy and for stocks, as it could nudge the Fed to dial back high interest rates. Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively over the past year and a half to cool off inflation, which weighed heavily on equities last year.

Persons: Stocks, Tom Lee, Lee, —, there's, Brent Organizations: Service, stoke Locations: Greece, Germany

☆ There's a signal flashing in the bond market that says a recession is coming soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's a worrying signal in the bond market that suggests a recession could soon arrive. Investors have typically pointed to the spread between the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields as an indicator of a coming recession. The two-year yield surpassing that of the 10-year bond has been a signal that's preceded every economic slump since 1955. Meanwhile, 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security yields, which are adjusted for inflation, are currently hovering around 2.5%, Misra said. "The US Treasury yield curve is de-inverting very rapidly," Gundlach said in post on X, formerly known as Twitter, on Tuesday.

Persons: —, Priya Misra, That's, Misra, It's, Jeff Gundlach, Gundlach, Buckle Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Management, CNBC, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ Rising interest rates means the cost of US debt will hit a new peak by 2025, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The cost of servicing the US's pile of debt is on track to hit a new record in 2025, Goldman Sachs said. Total interest payments on the US debt could amount to $10.6 trillion over the next decade, per one analysis. In 2022, it cost the government $476 billion, or around 2% of national GDP to pay the interest on its debt. Interest payments are set to rise to 3% of GDP in 2024, and 4% of GDP by 2030, strategists estimated. The federal debt could make up 181% of GDP by 2053, according to one projection from the Congressional Budget Office.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, —, That's, Peter G, Goldman Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Peterson Foundation, Congressional, Office

☆ The stock market today has 'echoes' of the 1987 crash, and even a hint of a recession would be a massive blow to equities, Societe Generale says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks are following the same path they did ahead of the 1987 stock crash, Societe Generale said. Investors are bullish in the face of rising bond yields, in an "echo" of late 80s sell-off. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is sending worrying signals, and any sign of recession now could spark a big sell-off, according to Societe Generale strategist Albert Edwards. But the outperformance in the face of soaring bond yields could be a warning of pain to come, if history is any guide. Meanwhile, only 32% of individual investors think the chance of a 1987-style stock market crash over the next six months is less than 10% according to Yale's US Crash Confidence Index.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, Edwards, Dow, bullishness, Raymond James Organizations: Societe Generale, Service, Generale, Federal Reserve, Treasury, York Fed

☆ China won't end up like Japan - but it's headed for a 'grinding deceleration' with a narrow path to avoid stagnation, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China has only a narrow path to avoid economic stagnation, according to TS Lombard. Stimulus from the government can offset weak investment and low consumption, but only partially. "We define Sinification as a grinding deceleration in activity led by falling property investment and weak consumption," he later added. That's well-below the double-digit growth rate China has seen for much of the past 20 years -- but still better than the 1% growth rate Japan saw in the 90s. AdvertisementAdvertisementOther forecasters have cast similar warnings over China's economy, seeing only slim chances the nation can avoid a difficult economic slowdown.

Persons: —, Rory Green, Green, That's, Morgan Stanley Organizations: TS Lombard, Service, United Locations: China, Japan's, United Nations, Japan

☆ The US office market is headed for a steep plunge, investor survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

65% of surveyed investors believe the US office market is in for a steep crash, Bloomberg reported. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US office market is in for a long, steep fall, according to investors surveyed by Bloomberg. In Bloomberg's latest Market Live Pulse survey, 65% of investors said they believed the US office market would only start to perk up after undergoing a serious decline. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe outlook for the broader commercial real estate market is similarly troubled. A crashing office market means banks could incur around $250 billion in losses, according to one hedge fund manager.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, National Association of Realtors, Capital Economics, JPMorgan

☆ What the plastic surgery industry can tell us about the path of the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Plastic surgery demand may be one signal. Anyone looking for more under-the-radar economic signals can add plastic surgery to the list. The plastic bubble popBut within the plastic surgery industry, the pullback in demand is undeniable, particularly considering how hot business was through 2021. "It's something that really took most of us by surprise," he said of the pandemic's plastic surgery boom. And media attention … that influences discretionary purchases and plastic surgery.

Persons: —, Dr, Steven Williams, tucks, Williams, Yaniv, Konchitchki, COVID hospitalizations, There's, it's Organizations: Service, American Society of Plastic Surgeons, UC Berkeley, Federal Reserve, Aesthetic Society, San Francisco Fed Locations: rhinoplasties, Europe, United States

☆ US stocks end mixed to close out worst month of 2023 as investors brace for a government shutdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mixed on Friday as a government shutdown looked increasingly likely. The session also closed out a dismal September, with the S&P 500 losing 5% to mark its worst month of 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors initially cheered better-than-expected inflation news but grew jittery as a government shutdown appeared more likely. The S&P 500 slid around 5% to mark its worst month of 2023, while the Dow lost about 4%, and the Nasdaq sank 6%. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has historically declined in September 55% of the time, posting an average loss of around 3.8%.

Persons: —, Adam Turnquist Organizations: Service, Dow, Nasdaq, Dow Jones

☆ The Fed is throwing 'kerosene on the fire' and needs to end rate hikes as inflation is probably already at 2%, billionaire real estate mogul Barry Sternlicht says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's rate hikes are the equivalent of throwing "kerosene on the fire," Barry Sternlicht said. The real estate mogul has been a loud critic of the Fed policy. High interest rates mean the US is bound to enter a slowdown, he warned in a recent interview. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Central bankers raised interest rates aggressively in the last 18 months to lower inflation.

Persons: Barry Sternlicht, —, Sternlicht, Powell Organizations: Service, Reserve, Starwood Capital Group, Fed, CNBC Locations: United States

☆ Russia and Saudi Arabia have likely made close to $3 billion this quarter as OPEC+ production cuts push oil toward $100 a barrel
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Russia and Saudi Arabia have made billions in additional oil revenue after their production cuts lifted prices. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has likely pulled in about $2.6 billion in extra revenue. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia and Saudi Arabia have likely pulled billions in additional oil revenue after steep oil production cuts lifted crude prices. Then, Saudi Arabia and Russia implemented their own voluntary production cuts this summer, with Saudi Arabia slashing production by 1 million barrels a day while Russia slashed production by half a million barrels a day. Analysts have said crude prices could quickly be on track to notch $100 a barrel next year, thanks to underinvestment and chronic undersupply in the industry.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Wall Street Journal, UAE, Brent, West Texas Intermediate, Saudi Locations: Russia, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, Ukraine

☆ Oil prices will hit $100 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs' chief commodities strategist warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices could tread as high as $100 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie said. AdvertisementAdvertisementOil prices are heading into the triple-digits next year, as a supercycle lifts the commodities sector, according to Goldman Sachs' outgoing commodities chief Jeff Currie. That's largely because of a supply-demand imbalance in the oil market, which is likely to worsen over the next year and push prices higher, Currie said. Currie, who has warned of triple-digit oil prices since late 2022, said there's increased demand for crude, noting that last week saw prices near $100. That's because higher prices at the gas pump could translate into weaker consumer sentiment, which could hit spending, corporate profits, and eventually, economic growth.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie, Brent, —, Goldman, Currie Organizations: Service, CNBC, OPEC, Brent, West Texas Intermediate

☆ Inflation will be a rollercoaster ride as the US economy navigates 2 'unprecedented' shocks, BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation is bound for a resurgence in 2024, BlackRock strategists warned in a recent note. Strategists previously warned of a "full-employment recession" to hit the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementInflation is bound to whipsaw next year as the US deals with two seismic shifts shaking the economy, according to BlackRock. But that downtrend is likely to end soon, the strategists warned. That outcome is part of a new regime of volatility markets are facing, the asset manager said, which involves higher interest rates, higher inflation, and sharp volatility.

Persons: —, That's, stokes Organizations: BlackRock, Service, stoke, New York Fed Locations: whipsaw, BlackRock

☆ US stocks whipsaw to end higher as investors mull rate fears and government shutdown risks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks were volatile on Monday as investors mulled higher interest rates and a looming government shutdown. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks ended the trading session slightly higher on Monday as investors eyed risks stemming from higher-for-longer interest rates and the growing odds of a government shutdown. Trading was volatile throughout the day, with stocks retracing their steepest losses to end the day narrowly in the green. Markets have been jittery over the prospects of higher-for-longer interest rates from the Fed, which have sent bond yields surging in September. AdvertisementAdvertisementRecession risks are also front-of-mind as higher interest rates signal tight financial conditions.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Treasury, New York Fed, Nasdaq Locations: Here's

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