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The upcoming inflation report will help determine the Fed's next move. Friday's surprisingly strong jobs data has slashed bets of a half-point rate cut. AdvertisementBut with September's jobs report crushing expectations, concerns may have been premature. AdvertisementHow inflation data could compound these forecasts will be known on Thursday, when the CPI report comes out. Still, with inflation still slightly above the central bank's 2% target , some analysts are cautioning investors not to forget about price pressures.
Persons: Friday's, , it's, they're, Mohamed El, Erian, Brian Rose, Seema Shah Organizations: UBS, Service, US, Bloomberg, CPI, Fed, Bank of America, Barclays
It's officially a new trading month, and HSBC recommends investors broaden their exposure in the fourth quarter by seeking out stocks with more reasonable valuations. "These 'big' companies represent the lion's share of equity index returns year to date." HSBC has a buy rating on the stock. In all, 16 of the 29 analysts covering GM have a strong buy or buy rating, and its average price target of $54.35 implies nearly 19% upside from Friday's close, per LSEG. The remaining 11 have a buy or strong buy rating.
Persons: It's, Nicole Inui, General Motors, Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: HSBC, Dow, Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, General, GM, Pharmaceutical, Pfizer, Delta Air Lines Locations: Americas, U.S
Below, four market experts share how investors should allocate their money going forward. The US job market blew past economists' predictions, with total nonfarm payrolls increasing by 254,000 last month — over 100,000 more jobs than expected. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer, Independent Advisor AllianceThe job market is showing signs of strengthening with the September data. With that being said, the current environment presents many opportunities to invest in equities, according to Zaccarelli. "Recession fears are elevated, and we think those are underpriced, underappreciated parts of the market," Zaccarelli said.
Persons: , we've, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, Sonders, there'll, it's, Jeffrey Roach, Roach, Lisa Shalett, Morgan, Shalett, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Investors, Fed, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Independent
Outside of the ABC27 news station where Casey and McCormick debated, a slew of people aligned with Casey’s campaign held signs calling McCormick an out-of-state candidate. McCormick attempted to deflect the line of attack on the debate stage by arguing Casey has little show for his long career in public office. “When you don’t have a record to run on, which Senator Casey does not, you attack your opponent,” McCormick shot back. When Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, McCormick said Casey quickly changed his tune. “Senator Casey said, ‘Kamala Harris is great!’” McCormick said.
Persons: Democratic Sen, Bob Casey, Dave McCormick, Casey, McCormick, who’s, , ” Casey, , ” McCormick, Mehmet Oz, “ I’m, John Fetterman, Oz, , “ He’s, “ Sen, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Biden, ‘ Kamala Harris, ’ ” McCormick, “ we’ll, Harris, , it’s, Donald Trump, Trump, Barack Obama, “ Casey, Roe, Wade, There’s, , “ We’ve, he’s, Daniel Dolan, ” Dolan Organizations: Democratic, Republican, Bridgewater Associates, Senate, White, Trump, NBC, Democratic Senators, Casey, Patrol, Harrisburg Community College Locations: HARRISBURG, Pa, Washington, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Bloomsburg , Pennsylvania, New Jersey, China, New York, Ukraine, Iran, U.S, Israel, Mexico
"It also increases the possibility of a no-landing as well, meaning even stronger economic data for 2025 than we currently expect." watch nowBeyond that, it virtually eliminated any chance that the Federal Reserve would be repeating its half percentage point interest rate cut from September anytime soon. But broadly speaking, the news was very good and raised questions over just how aggressive the Fed will need to be. Jones said the Fed will have a dilemma on its hand as it figures out the proper policy response. "In an election year, passions run high and every economic report or event can garner intense reaction.
Persons: Anna Rose Layden, We've, Beth Ann Bovino, Friday's nonfarm, Dow Jones, Bovino, David Royal, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab, Jones, they're, Elizabeth Renter Organizations: Outfitters, Getty, Federal Reserve, U.S . Bank, Fed, Fed Bank of America, Wall, U.S Locations: Tysons , Virginia, U.S
US stocks rose 1% and the Dow hit a record as the jobs report alleviated slowdown worries. AdvertisementUS stocks surged about 1% on Friday after the September jobs report soothed fears of an economic slowdown. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, odds of a 50-basis point cut dropped to 0% from 53% last week. Consensus now expects two 25-basis point rate cuts from the Fed at their next two FOMC meetings before year-end. ING's chief economist, James Knightley, said the jobs report was "unambiguously strong."
Persons: , Dow, Sonu Varghese, Jeffrey Roach, James Knightley, Knightley Organizations: Dow, Service, Federal, Fed, Financial Locations: Here's
CNBC Daily Open: October’s gravity bringing stocks down
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But gravity is catching up with stocks in October, which tends to be a volatile month. If the number of jobs added comes in higher than expected, markets are likely to react well. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: Michael M, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City
The jobs market had a very strong September
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
The Fed is pivoting away from fighting inflation to supporting the labor market. The encouraging numbers doubled down on a labor market that's showing signs of strength after a slowdown. The Federal Reserve signaled a pivot from fighting inflation to supporting the job market with a 50-basis-point interest rate cut in mid-September, the first cut in four years. AdvertisementWage growth was another highlight for the labor market in September. The latest jobs report didn't just indicate a strong September.
Persons: , Glen Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS, GDS Wealth Management, Fed
CNBC Daily Open: Stocks can’t defy October’s gravity
  + stars: | 2024-10-04 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. [PRO] How to play the jobs report The U.S. jobs report for September, coming out later today, will indicate if the economy will be able to achieve a soft landing or is headed toward a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan break down how the S&P 500 could react , depending on the number of jobs added for September. With the jobs report out in about 12 hours, it's too late for second guessing, in any case.
Persons: AI's, Nvidia's, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Dow Jones, David Kelly, Kelly, it's, , Jeff Cox, Alex Harring, Pia Singh Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, JPMorgan, Nvidia, Port, U.S, International Longshoremen's Association, United States Maritime Alliance, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, U.S . Federal Reserve, Asset Management Locations: New York City, U.S, East, Gulf Coast
watch nowThe U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point. Strength in job creation spilled over to wages, as average hourly earnings increased 0.4% on the month and were up 4% from a year ago. You get upward revisions and it tells you the job market continues to be healthy, and that means the economy is healthy."
Persons: Nonfarm payrolls, Kathy Jones, Charles Schwab Organizations: Labor Department, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
The Fed will still deliver jumbo rate cuts to stabilize the weakening job market, the firm predicted. AdvertisementThough most on Wall Street are cheering September's blowout labor report, not everyone is so sure the labor market is booming. Advertisement"The extremely low response rate to the payroll survey waves a red flag," the firm wrote on Friday. The firm scrutinized last month's payroll strength against the fact that other labor market indicators have shown a pullback in hiring. Meanwhile, this week's JOLTS data prompted Deutsche Bank to question how tight the labor market really is.
Persons: , Larry Summers Organizations: Macroeconomics, Service, Deutsche Bank, of Labor Statistics, Conference, Federal, Bank of America Locations: joblessness, tanked
Despite the major indexes trading near their all-time highs, there are still plenty of stocks that JPMorgan is bearish on in the coming quarter. Against this backdrop, JPMorgan surveyed its analysts for their top short ideas, or stocks that might underperform going into the fourth quarter. Shares have risen 9% in 2024, leading to what JPMorgan analyst Michael Rehaut believes is an expensive valuation. JPMorgan analyst Kenneth Goldman also has an underweight rating on Beyond Meat . "Plant-based meat continues to struggle as the fad fades," the analyst wrote.
Persons: Stocks, Stanley Black, Decker, Michael Rehaut, Kenneth Goldman, Stephen Tusa, Mark Strouse Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Traders, Rockwell Automation, ROK, FuelCell Energy Locations: , underinvestment
AdvertisementThe September jobs report offered good news all around — except to those expecting a second straight jumbo 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve next month. In addition, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1%, bucking estimates that it would stay unchanged at 4.2%. Analysts agree that September's blowout job numbers make an aggressive interest rate cut harder to justify. Advertisement"Did the Fed even need to cut rates in September, let alone cut by 50 basis points?" Late last month, the bank predicted that investors would take on more risk if the unemployment rate hit 4.1% and if payrolls reached above 150,000.
Persons: , Seema Shah, Glen Smith, Morgan Stanley, payrolls, Smith Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Asset Management, GDS Wealth Management, Federal
How the port strike could actually boost Costco sales
  + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Club stock Nvidia jumped more than 3% — bucking the pressure on Big Tech. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Oppenheimer, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Wall, Nvidia, Big Tech, Blackwell, Broadcom, Devices, Food and Drug Administration, Costco, AMD Locations: New Jersey
"The jobs market is slowing down and becoming less tight," said Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management. Then there are the monthly revisions that have been dramatic at times, causing the Labor Department to overcount hiring by more than 800,000 for the 12-month period through March 2024, adding uncertainty to jobs market analysis. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report at 8:30 a.m. Looking for cluesStill, markets will in fact be watching the report closely. At the same meeting where they approved the reduction, policymakers indicated another half percentage point, or 50 basis points, in cuts before the end of 2024 and another full percentage point in 2025.
Persons: Angus Mordant, Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Katie Nixon, We've, there's, David Kelly, Helene —, JPMorgan's Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Federal Reserve, Trust Wealth Management, Labor Department, Asset Management, Labor Statistics Locations: Albany, Latham , New York
Modelo and Corona brewer Constellation Brands is a tale of two businesses. Constellation Brands Why we own it : Constellation Brands' beer franchise, which includes popular Mexican brands Modelo, Corona and Pacifico, is the growth engine and by far the most attractive part of the business. And, the profitability of its beer business — operating margins were an impressive 42.6% in the quarter — puts Constellation in a position of strength. Still, raising an anchor is always welcome news, and talk of its booming beer business would, at last, no longer need the wine-and-spirits caveat. Looking ahead, its beer business should continue grabbing market share and its hard to imagine the wine-and-spirits unit getting much worse.
Persons: Bill Newlands, Thursday's, Newlands, Kim Crawford, There's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Corona, Constellation Brands, LSEG, Modelo, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Molson Coors, Investors, Constellation, National Football League, Bloomberg, Brier, Modelo Especial, CNBC Locations: Corona, Pacifico, Wednesday's, U.S, Campo, West Coast, San Rafael , California
JPMorgan sees the stock drifting even lower, by as much as 48% to its $130 price target. AdvertisementJPMorgan raised its price target for Tesla stock — but the bank still sees shares of Elon Musk's electric carmaker falling almost 50% in the coming year. Tesla stock is down 7% since it reported third-quarter vehicle deliveries on Wednesday, but JPMorgan thinks it can go much lower. In a Thursday note, the bank set its December 2025 Tesla stock price target to $130, representing potential downside of 48% from Wednesday's close. AdvertisementJonas has a $310 price target for Tesla stock, more than double Brinkman's $130 target.
Persons: Tesla, , Ryan Brinkman, Brinkman, Dan Ives, Elon Musk, that's, Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley, Jonas Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Elon, Wall, Toyota Locations: Wednesday's
Tim Walz said he believes his rival for vice president, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, wants to solve the nation’s immigration crisis, but he questioned whether former President Donald Trump really does. Vance acknowledged that Walz wants to solve the problem, too, but he questioned whether Vice President Kamala Harris really does. Vance said he and Walz “probably agree that we need to do better” on addressing gun violence. “I think Tim Walz agreed with JD Vance significantly more times in this debate. “Look, I’ve known Tim Walz 16 years, and that’s who he is,” Colorado Gov.
Persons: Tim Walz, Sen, JD Vance, Ohio, Donald Trump, Vance, Walz, Kamala Harris, , , Walz “, — Vance, , , ” Walz, Tuesday’s, Harris, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, Cheney, Republican George W, Bush, ” Rep, Byron Donalds, they're, Jasmine Crockett, Wajahat Ali, ” Ali, Dems, ” Symone Sanders, ” Sanders, that’s, Jared Polis, ” Vance, Tim, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris ’, “ Donald Trump, Margaret Brennan, scrutinizing, “ I’ve, Brennan, Trump, Biden, It’s Organizations: Minnesota Gov, Republican, CBS News, , NBC, Democratic Party, MSNBC, Democrat, NBC News, Washington Post, U.S . Capitol, White Locations: Minnesota, Springfield , Ohio, Trump, D, Texas, Colorado, Springfield, American, Mexico, America, Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Walz
Tim Walz said he believes his rival for vice president, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, wants to solve the nation’s immigration crisis, but he questioned if former President Donald Trump really does. Vance acknowledged that Walz wants to solve the problem, too, but he questioned if Vice President Kamala Harris really does. Walz agreed with “a lot of what Sen. Vance said” about Americans not trusting Republicans on abortion. Vance replied, “Who has been the vice president for the last three and a half years? “Kamala Harris’ Day One was Donald Trump’s failure on Covid that led to the collapse of our economy.
Persons: Sen, JD Vance, Tim Walz, Vance, Walz, Henry J, Gomez, Allan Smith, Ohio, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, , Walz “, — Vance, , Tuesday’s, Harris, Dick Cheney, Joe Lieberman, Cheney, Republican George W, Bush, Read, Allan →, Sahil Kapur, assail “ Donald Trump’s, , Trump, “ Kamala Harris ’, Donald Trump’s, ” Walz, Tim, Hitler ”, I’ve, ” Vance Organizations: Minnesota Gov, Republican, CBS News, Trump, , GOP, Biden Locations: Ohio, Israel, Sahil
Here are JPMorgan's top stock picks heading into October
  + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
For October, the additions include Best Buy and Carmax , while Wayfair , CarGurus and First Citizens BancShares are among those removed. The bank cited positive existing home sales, and an expansion in AI adoption, believing Best Buy will see continued growth in average selling prices . Analyst Christopher Horvers says Best Buy will increase its profitability over time, noting an uptick in operating margins to 5% from last year's 4.1%. He has an overweight rating on the stock, and his price target of $111 implies more than 9% upside from Tuesday's close. The bank's price target for Schwab implied about 22% upside and for Ulta Beauty about 18% potential appreciation, based on Tuesday's close.
Persons: JPMorgan's, Christopher Horvers, BBY, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Charles Schwab, Schwab Organizations: JPMorgan, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Wall, AT, TPG Locations: Israel, Richland , Minnesota, Dallas, DirectTV, Lilly, Ireland
JPMorgan upgrades Parr Pacific to overweight from neutral JPMorgan said the gas exploration and production company has overcorrected. JPMorgan downgrades MercadoLibre to neutral from overweight JPMorgan downgraded the online Latin American marketplace mainly due to valuation. Wells Fargo reiterates Meta as overweight Wells Fargo raised its price target on Meta to $652 per share from $647. JPMorgan upgrades SAIC to overweight from neutral The firm says it sees "profitable growth" for the IT company. Berenberg upgrades Rio Tinto to buy from hold Berenberg says the metals and mining company is a "medium-term diversified winner."
Persons: Roth, DA Davidson, Davidson, PARR, Wolfe, Raymond James downgrades, Raymond James, Guggenheim, Mizuho, it's bullish, tailwinds, Wells, Wells Fargo, Canaccord, Tesla, Berenberg, Baird downgrades Harley, Baird, Harley, Gordon, FANG, Bernstein Organizations: Iren Energy, Industries, JPMorgan, Parr, Northland, TAM, Raymond James downgrades GE, GE, Deutsche Bank, Nike, Absci Corporation, Mizuho, Kodiak, Kodiak Gas Services, Meta, SAIC, IT, Tesla, Mobile, T Bank, Buffalo, Rio Tinto, BHP, Home Depot, Barclays, Diamondback Energy, Nvidia, Apple Locations: OW, Asia, Vegas, Northland, Salesforce, Rio, American
It also raised its price target to $210 from $187, suggesting shares could rise more than 17% from Tuesday's close. He maintained his $2,400 price target, which implies 16.2% upside potential from Tuesday's close. Bank of America's Lorraine Hutchinson reiterated her buy rating while trimming her price target to $100 from $104. Deutsche Bank analyst Krisztina Katai also maintained her buy rating and inched down her price target by $3 to $92. He also lowered his price target on shares to $40 from $42, implying upside of just 5.2% over the next 12 months.
Persons: Baird, Davidson, Raymond James, Pavel Molchanov, Molchanov, — Hakyung Kim, FANG, Betty Jiang, Jiang, Diamondback, John Pancari, Pancari, Marcelo Santos, Santos, LatAm, Santo, Elliott Hill, Bank of America's Lorraine Hutchinson, Hutchinson, Krisztina Katai, Katai, Matthew Boss, Boss, Baird downgrades Harley, Craig Kennison, Harley, Kennison, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, GE, General Electric, Barclays, Diamondback, Diamondback Energy, Endeavor, Endeavor Energy Resources, Management, T, T Bank, Federal Reserve, ISI, EA, JPMorgan downgrades, JPMorgan, MercadoLibre, Nike, Bank of, Deutsche Bank, Harley Locations: Tuesday's, Bank of America's, Hill
The best-case scenario for stocks is if Friday's jobs report comes in slightly above consensus, according to JPMorgan. Here are the bank's five scenarios: Above 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 trades flat or as much as 0.5% higher. Between 160,000 to 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 gains between 1% and 1.5%. Between 140,000 to 160,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 rises by 0.75% to 1.25%. Between 110,000 to 140,000 jobs added: JPMorgan traders see the S & P 500 sliding between 0.5% and 1.5%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, JPMorgan's, Michael Feroli, nonfarm Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Locations: U.S
Private sector hiring picked up in September, indicating the labor market is holding its ground despite some signs of weakness, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. While hiring increased, the rate of pay growth took another step down. The ADP count comes two days ahead of the Labor Department's nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to show growth of 150,000, following August's disappointing showing of 142,000, of which 118,000 came from private sector hiring. While the ADP report serves as a precursor to the official count, the two can differ, sometimes by wide margins. In a speech Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized the labor market as "solid" while noting that it has "clearly cooled" over the past year.
Persons: Dow Jones, switchers, Job, nonfarm, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Companies, Labor, Federal Reserve
Health startup Roon is raising $15 million at a $65 million pre-money valuation, BI has learned. AdvertisementHealth information site Roon is raising a new funding round, Business Insider has learned. Roon aims to replace "Dr. Google" with its website and app for consumers to ask their health questions and get expert answers. The company provides accessible medical information to users and partners with trained medical professionals to answer specific medical questions about users' health journeys. Related storiesToday, expert health information isn't always easy to find with a simple Google search.
Persons: , Roon, Vikram Bhaskaran, Arun Ranganathan, Rohan Ramakrishna, OpenAI's, Bhaskaran Organizations: Service, Sequoia Capital, SV Angel, Union Square Ventures Locations: Sequoia
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