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☆ Gold retreats to three-week low ahead of U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bars of gold are seen at Krastsvetmet, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals, in Moscow, January 31, 2023. Gold prices fell to a three-week low on Monday, pressured by elevated Treasury yields as expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut faded, with investors looking ahead to this week's U.S. inflation data for more clarity. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The market currently sees a 69% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's March 19-20 policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "If and when a recession becomes apparent, the Fed can be expected to cut rates, likely weakening the dollar and benefiting the dollar gold price," Heraeus Metals said in a note.

Persons: Daniel Pavilonis, Heraeus Organizations: Treasury, Metals, Palladium, Heraeus Metals Locations: Moscow, U.S

☆ Gold posts weekly decline as dollar, yields climb
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,044.21 per ounce after falling and then rising by about 1% earlier in the session. "First, the nonfarm payrolls data came in stronger than expected, due to which we saw some pressure applied to gold ... Both the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest levels in three weeks, heading for their best weeks since July and October, respectively. On the physical front, gold buying in major consumer India rose this week, as domestic prices fell back from record highs. Palladium fell 0.9% to a three-week low of $1,027.11 in its ninth consecutive session of declines and was down 6.4% on the week.

Persons: David Meger, Saxo, Ole Hansen Organizations: Singapore Gold, Institute for Supply Management, High, U.S ., U.S . Federal Locations: Singapore, India

☆ Money market funds were hot in 2023. Here's what to expect in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Next year should be another good one for money market funds, even amid anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, experts predict. An estimated $950 billion has gone into money market funds so far this year, bringing the total net assets to $5.87 trillion as of Dec. 20, according to the Investment Company Institute . The Federal Reserve has indicated three rate cuts for 2024, which means the yields in short-term assets like money market funds and online savings accounts will follow suit. That's because money market funds are competing with bank savings accounts for cash, not necessarily equities and fixed income assets, he said. Certified financial planner Cathy Curtis, founder and CEO of Curtis Financial Planning, would look at money market funds for cash you will need in six months or less.

Persons: Shelly Antoniewicz, Peter Crane, Crane, it's, Christine Benz, Cathy Curtis, Curtis, Kristy Akullian Organizations: Federal Reserve, Crane Data, Investment Company Institute, Federal, Crane, Morningstar, Benz, Curtis Financial, CNBC, BlackRock

☆ Fed is 'disconnected' from reality, must cut rates 5 times next year, portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chris Wattie | ReutersThe Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at least five times next year to avoid tipping the U.S. economy into a recession, according to portfolio manager Paul Gambles. "I think Fed policy is now so disconnected from economic factors and from reality that you can't make any assumptions about when the Fed is going to wake up and and start smelling the amount of damage that they're actually causing to the economy," Gambles warned. The current U.S. policy rate stands at 5.25%-5.50%, the highest in 22 years. Traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut as early as March 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The perception now being that the U.S. central bank is effectively done raising interest rates.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Paul Gambles, CNBC's, Gambles, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, David Roche, Roche Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, MBMG, Traders, Federal, Financial, Labor Locations: U.S

Will savings rates drop after the next Fed meeting? It's unlikely national savings rates will drop after the next Fed meeting. What happens to savings rates when the Fed raises interest rates? In early 2024, savings rates are generally expected to be similar to current savings rates. Once the Fed plans to start cutting rates, however, savings rates will likely begin to go down in 2024.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, David Smith, It's, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, Pepperdine Graziadio Business, Spelman College

☆ BlackRock's Rick Rieder sees first rate cut in mid-2024, thinks market is pricing in easing too soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder thinks the Federal Reserve should start enacting small rate cuts in the middle of 2024, later than the current market pricing suggests. He said market expectation of a March rate cut is "over the top." Market pricing indicated about a 60% chance of a rate cut starting March next year, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. "I don't think the economy is falling off a cliff. I don't think I don't believe that we're going to have a significant recession," he said.

Persons: Rick Rieder, Rieder, it's Organizations: BlackRock, Reserve

☆ Collapsed US money supply is a threat to employment, growth, and inflation, Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US money supply has seen its longest stagnation since World War II, according to Jeremy Siegel. "You can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing," Siegel told CNBC. AdvertisementThe US money supply is flashing a major warning to the US economy, according to Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel. Money supply then rebounded through the summer, but has recently returned to its decline, nearing April's low. Advertisement"You can't really have a growing economy when the M2 money supply is decreasing," he warned.

Persons: Jeremy Siegel, Wharton, Siegel, — Organizations: CNBC, Service, Federal Reserve, Federal, Atlanta

Mortgage rates fell dramatically last month, and they could drop further in 2024. Today, average 30-year mortgage rates are nearly 80 basis points down from where they were a month ago. As inflation continues to slow, mortgage rates should come down even more. This means that as long as inflation keeps decelerating, mortgage rates should come down. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Spelman College, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Atlanta, Chevron

☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

☆ Analysis: The 2023 stock rally is back on track
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —The US stock market has rebounded from its months-long rut. Stocks finished out their best month of the year on Thursday, breaking a three-month streak of declines for all the major indexes. “The only way I see a rally continuing is if the bond market behaves itself,” said Richard Steinberg, chief market strategist at The Colony Group. While those stocks have remained at the top of Wall Street’s scoreboard, the recent rally has encompassed a wider range of stocks. Long-neglected pockets of the stock market, from beaten-down financials to small-caps to cyclical stocks, have climbed higher in recent weeks.

Persons: Stocks, ”, Richard Steinberg, “, Santa Claus, Ned Davis, Anna Cooban, Elisabeth Buchwald, Nelson Peltz, Nelson Peltz’s, Bob Iger, ” Trian, Trian, Trian’s, Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, Sky Jeremy Darroch, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Treasury, The Colony, Wall Street, Ned Davis Research, Organization of, Petroleum, Saudi Press Agency, Ministry of Energy, Saudi, United Emirates, Reuters, Disney, Management, Peltz, Sky Locations: New York, Santa, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Vienna, Russia, Iraq, United, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, Oman, Brazil, Brazil’s

☆ Dollar eases as traders weigh rate cut prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "It remains to be seen if getting from 3% to 2% will be easy, or if inflation will remain sticky in 2024." Federal Reserve policymakers signaled on Thursday that the U.S. central bank's interest rate hikes are likely over, but left the door open to further monetary policy tightening should progress on inflation stall. Investor focus will now move to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later on Friday, with traders likely to scrutinize every word to sketch out rate outlook. The Australian dollar rose 0.20% to $0.662, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.37% to $0.618.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, Jerome Powell, Powell, Carol Kong, Sterling, Toshiro Muto Organizations: Risk, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, New Zealand Locations: North America, U.S, Europe

☆ US bond investors brace for Fed rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders' confidence was reinforced earlier this week when Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish policymaker, flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead. SOFR FUTURESBond investors also look to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures to gauge expectations of Fed rate moves. The June 2024 SOFR futures have priced at least one Fed cut, while the probability of two 25-basis-point rate reductions was at 76%. An OIS transaction involves exchanging an overnight rate such as the federal funds rate for a fixed one. For instance, in a U.S. two-year OIS transaction, one party receives a fixed two-year rate in exchange for paying the fed funds rate daily over the next two years.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, It's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Alden Bentley, Paul Simao Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Dakota Wealth Management, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Atlanta

Average 30-year mortgage rates have dipped even further below 7% and are holding steady today. Now that inflation is nearing the Fed's target, it's likely we'll see some more substantial mortgage rate drops in 2024. This would give mortgage rates time to recede ahead of the spring buying season, providing more affordability for home shoppers. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 6.67% last week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal, Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron

☆ Dollar slumps as Fed cuts eyed; Aussie buoyant ahead of inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-29 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Australian dollar held near a four-month peak while the New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495 in early Asia trade. Australian inflation data is due later in the day, followed by a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The dollar index was eyeing a nearly 4% loss for November, its worst monthly performance in a year. "We have become less constructive on the prospects for the U.S. dollar, as progress in reducing U.S. inflation suggests the risks are tilted toward earlier rather than later Fed easing," said economists at Wells Fargo in a note. Sterling last bought $1.27105, hovering near the previous session's roughly three-month high of $1.2715.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Capital.com's Rodda, Rae Wee, Lincoln Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Fed, U.S ., Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Wells

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO/LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a three-month low against a basket of peers on Tuesday before steadying, as traders continued to unwind long dollar positions before this week's U.S. and euro zone inflation data. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, was last at 103.17, a whisker above the 103.07 it touched in Asia trade, the lowest since Aug. 31. The index is on track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. The Japanese yen was a touch firmer at 148.45 per dollar , continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month as the dollar weakened. The Swiss franc was at 0.8810 per dollar, steady on the day, also around its firmest since the start of September, and the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of $0.6632.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Simon Harvey, Brigid Riley, Alun John, Ed Osmond, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, greenback . U.S, Fed, Reuters, Swiss, Australian, Reserve Bank of New, Thomson Locations: LONDON, steadying, U.S, Asia, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Tuesday night: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures flickered near the flat line on Tuesday, as investors held out hope that the Federal Reserve is done raising benchmark interest rates. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked higher by 16 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.03% each%. Indeed, fed funds futures pricing suggests a chance that the central bank could cut rates as early as next spring, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. On the earnings front, Hormel Foods and Dollar Tree are expected to issue quarterly results before the opening bell.

Persons: Miriam Adelson, NetApp, Christopher Waller, Waller, Adam Crisafulli Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Las Vegas Sands, Dow, Hormel Locations: Las Vegas

☆ Dollar hangs at three-month low as traders eye PCE data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

United States one dollar bills are curled and inspected during production at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington. The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year. Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index data and OPEC+ decision.

Persons: Kyle Rodda, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Engraving, The U.S, Federal Reserve, Reuters, greenback . U.S, Fed, Traders, Australian, Reserve Bank of New, Bank of Japan, IG Locations: United, Washington, The, U.S, OPEC, Reserve Bank of New Zealand

☆ Here's why it's time to buy 'dividend aristocrats,' says Wolfe Research
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Next year could be the year for certain dividend stocks, according to Wolfe Research. The S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index is composed of companies that have increased dividends for at least 25 consecutive years. Here are some of the names in the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index. For investors who prefer funds, they can also get exposure through the ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats exchange-traded fund. NOBL YTD mountain ProShares S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

Persons: Chris Senyek, Senyek, Wolfe, Roz Brewer, Tim Wentworth, Wentworth, Medtronic, Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, Federal, Materials, Walgreens, Shields Health, —

Average 30-year mortgage rates continue to hover right around 7%, which is significantly lower compared to where they were a month ago. Once we get a clearer picture of when the Fed might start seriously considering cutting rates, mortgage rates could fall further. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 6.67% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a nine-basis-point drop from last week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit.

Persons: Freddie Mac Organizations: Fed, Mortgage, Zillow Locations: Chevron

☆ Wall St futures edge lower as investor await data, policy cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Wall Street ended the Thanksgiving week on a positive note, with the major indexes notching up their fourth consecutive week of gains on growing optimism that the Federal Reserve was likely done hiking interest rates. ET, Dow e-minis were down 48 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 7 points, or 0.15%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 23.75 points, or 0.15%. The personal consumption expenditure index data for October - the Fed's preferred inflation gauge - is slated to be released on Thursday. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Axel Rudolph, Shristi Achar, Shashwat Chauhan, Saumyadeb Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Dow e, IG Group, Walmart, Crown, Elliott Investment Management, Reuters, GE HealthCare, UBS, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Sterling rises, dollar listless as markets brace for post-Thanksgiving buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The pound was on track for a roughly 3.8% gain for the month, its largest monthly gain in a year. Elsewhere, the dollar fell 0.32% to 148.97 yen , while the euro gained 0.2% to $1.0952. The dollar index slipped 0.12% to 103.31 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance in a year. In China, the yuan slipped after the official midpoint snapped five straight sessions of strengthening, with the onshore yuan last at 7.1550 per dollar. Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Gerry Doyle and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Jane Foley, Rae Wee, Gerry Doyle, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of New, PMI, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Traders, Rabobank, ", Fed, New, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, China, Beijing

☆ Sterling steady, dollar wobbles as markets brace for post-Thanksgiving buzz
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

In this photo illustration, a old British £1 note is pictured with a one Dollar bill note on November 05, 2023 in Bath, England. The Australian dollar likewise stood near a roughly three-month high and last bought $0.6578, ahead of domestic inflation data on Wednesday. The weakening greenback provided some respite for the Japanese yen , which sat on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and last stood at 149.52 per dollar. The New Zealand dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6076, but was likewise hovering near Friday's more than three-month high of $0.6096. "I think the issues in the Middle East have definitely become more of a background risk," said CBA's Kong.

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Jane Foley, CBA's Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of New, PMI, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S ., U.S, Rabobank, Fed, New Zealand, Israel Locations: Bath, England, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Friday's, U.S, East, Gaza

Mortgage rates are the lowest they've been in two months, with 30-year mortgage rates now hovering right around 7%. This is great news for mortgage rates, since it means we'll likely see some substantial drops in 2024. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 6.67% this week, according to Freddie Mac data.

Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Zillow, Investors Locations: Chevron

CNBC Pro reviewed FactSet data to see how the major indexes fared 12 months after the final rate hike in prior cycles. In fact, as Hooper observed, the S & P 500 saw double-digit returns following the last increase in five out of the last six rate-hiking cycles. After the final rate hike in June 2006, the S & P 500 gained 18% in the following 12 months, in the runup to the Global Financial Crisis. The S & P 500 lost 12%, while the Nasdaq Composite plunged 41%. The Dow alone came out in positive territory 12 months out.

Persons: Invesco's Kristina Hooper, CNBC's, it's, Hooper, Russell, Dow, Invesco's Hooper Organizations: CNBC Pro, Nasdaq, CNBC, Dow Jones Industrial, Global

WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve officials concluded earlier this month that inflation was steadily falling and agreed to closely monitor incoming data to ensure that the pace of price increases would continue slowing toward their 2% target, according to the minutes of their meeting released Tuesday. As a result, the policymakers decided to leave their key benchmark rate unchanged but to keep it elevated for an extended period. The officials agreed at the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting that they would raise their key rate again if incoming economic data “indicated that progress” toward the 2% target “was insufficient,” the minutes said. The minutes released Tuesday suggested that the Fed's policymakers hope to see forthcoming data confirm that inflation is headed back toward their target level. He said “we're making progress” in taming inflation, though he acknowledged that such progress would come “in lumps and be bumpy."

Persons: Jerome Powell, “ Organizations: WASHINGTON, — Federal, Fed

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