Put it this way: If our story is that Fed tightening will produce a recession, we’d expect that to work mainly though housing, the usual channel.
Indeed, Fed hikes led to a big rise in mortgage interest rates, which hit 7 percent almost a year ago and have fluctuated since then.
Coy: Paul, you were right to call out those who thought we needed a punishing recession to get inflation down.
The labor market has held up surprisingly well, which is wonderful.
The labor market isn’t as resilient as it appears at first sight, either.
Persons:
Coy, Paul, don’t
Organizations:
Mortgage Bankers Association