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☆ An extremely reliable recession indicator just signaled that a downturn is coming. The top portfolio manager at a $232 billion firm breaks down what that means for stocks and investors — and shares 2
  + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Yields on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes inverted last week. Peter Essele believes stocks will behave differently this time around, however. When people talk about an inverted yield curve as a recession harbinger, they're usually referring to the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. But the inversion of yields on the 3-month bill and the 10-year note is a rarer occurrence, and therefore a better recession indicator, according to some economists. While 2-year yields rose higher that 10-year yields this past spring, yields on the 3-month note surpassed 10-year yields just this week.
☆ There's still a bull case for the stock market even as inflation runs hot and rates rise
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Today we're also looking at one firm's view that there's still a bull case to be made for stocks, but its sitting on increasingly shaky ground. The upside case for stocks rests largely on two things: inflation and rates. DataTrek Research co-founder Nicholas Colas told clients this week that investors could propel stocks up heading into 2023. "TIPS and Fed Funds Futures prices do currently support the idea that in six months inflation will be dropping and Fed policy will be moving into neutral," Colas said. Individual investors have reduced net purchases of stocks in recent days following the September inflation shock.
☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed isn't about to back down from its inflation fight
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Julia Horowitz | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
A version of this story first appeared in CNN Business’ Before the Bell newsletter. London CNN Business —Twelve days from now, the Federal Reserve will meet again, and expectations for the central bank’s next moves are firming up. The consensus among investors: Persistently hot inflation means the Fed will need to continue with its string of aggressive interest rate hikes, which is unprecedented in the modern era. In an interview with Reuters on Friday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said inflation had become “pernicious,” which means that “frontloading” larger rate hikes is logical. But with two quarters of disappointing deliveries caused by supply chain issues and Covid-related shutdowns in China, that goal has looked increasingly out of reach, my CNN Business colleague Chris Isidore reports.
☆ An often-overlooked economic measure is signaling serious trouble ahead
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
However, Fed officials are stressing that they're far from finished when it comes to raising rates. "When this basket is signaling the weakness that it's showing, what the Fed typically does is not raise rates. But in this case, it's not only raising rates aggressively, but with a commitment to continue raising rates aggressively." In addition to the typical headline metrics such as the consumer price index and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price" CPI rose 8.5% on an annualized basis in September, up from 7.7% in August. The measure looks at items such as rent, the price of food away from home and recreation costs.
☆ US stocks finish lower as Fed official's dour inflation outlook pushes key bond yields to fresh 14-year highs
  + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
US stocks fell Thursday, stretching their losses into a second consecutive session. A "disappointing lack of progress on curtailing inflation" will keep the Fed raising interest rates, said Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker. IBM and AT&T rose after their earnings reports while Tesla shares dropped. Investors sold off bonds, propelling the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.23%, a fresh 14-year high. Weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 214,000, compared with an Econoday estimate of 235,000 new filings for unemployment benefits.
☆ Buy these 12 tech stocks that are set to recover in the pivotal Q3 earnings season with investors already as bearish as they were in 2008 and 2001, says Wedbush
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Outspoken tech analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities still likes software and cybersecurity stocks. Here are 12 of Ives' favorite tech stocks to own heading into the end of the year. Many investors seem to have lost hope ahead of a critically important Q3 earnings season. Markets haven't given companies the benefit of the doubt lately and investors will likely unload any stocks that report disappointing earnings, Ives noted, so executing in this challenging environment is essential. 12 top tech stocks to buyIn the note, Ives listed 12 of his favorite technology stocks to buy heading into the Q3 earnings season.
☆ A major US recession is avoidable and this is not a 'gloom and doom scenario,' US Commerce Secretary says
  + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +2 min
A major US recession isn't inevitable, US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told Bloomberg TV. Markets are still being rattled with volatility, but this is not a "gloom and doom scenario," she said. "Obviously there is a possibility that we would have a recession… But as I see it, a recession is not inevitable. Certainly, any kind of significant recession is absolutely not inevitable," Raimondo said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on Thursday. "I think we have to be cautious, but this should not be a gloom and doom scenario," Raimondo said.
☆ CEO confidence tumbles yet again as execs prepare for recession, survey finds
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCEO confidence tumbles yet again as execs prepare for recession, survey findsRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the results from the Business Council and Conference Board's CEO confidence survey.
☆ US economy will soon start losing 175,000 jobs a month, Bank of America warns
  + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN Business —The Federal Reserve’s fight to squash inflation will cause the US economy to start losing tens of thousands of jobs a month beginning early next year, Bank of America warns. ‘Mild’ recessionSome forecasters are more bullish on the state of the jobs market. The Conference Board said Monday its employment trend index, a combination of leading job market indicators, ticked up last month. Bank of America expects the unemployment rate will top out at 5.5% next year, well below the peak of nearly 15% in April 2020. “Although nobody wants to be callous about someone losing their job,” Gapen said, “this could be classified as a mild recession.”
☆ Opinion: The Fed doesn’t have a choice anymore. Get ready for a recession
  + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Gad Levanon For Cnn Business Perspectives | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
On the other hand, overall employment growth has been much stronger than normal. Why has employment growth remained so strong? And it’s likely that these represent structural changes to buying patterns that will keep demand high. Employment growth is likely to slow down from its historically high rates, but it will still remain solid in the coming months. The only option that leaves the Fed is to engineer a recession by continuing to raise interest rates.
☆ Consumer Moods Improved in September as Gasoline Prices Fell
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
Consumers’ moods about the economy improved in September while a jump in new-home sales and a decline in orders for long-lasting goods offered a mixed picture of demand at the end of the summer. The consumer-confidence index, which measures American attitudes toward jobs and the economy, rose in September for the second month in a row, in part driven by falling gas prices, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The index, which rose in September to 108 from 103.6, had fallen earlier in the year as energy prices surged and the highest inflation in four decades weighed on the economy.
☆ Consumers are growing more optimistic about the US economy
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Martha C. White For Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
CNN —Consumer confidence rose for a second straight month in September, as moderating gas prices and the hope that inflationary pressures might be easing helped lift the nation’s collective mood. The Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its baseline index rose to 108 from a revised 103.6 in August. The reading comes as welcome news, since the consumer outlook lately has been buffeted by the growing fear of an economic downturn. The consumer confidence index is just one constellation of data points economists and investors will have to digest this week. Barring an upward revision that finds the economy expanded instead of contracted, American economic activity will have fallen for two consecutive quarters, a commonly used — although unofficial — yardstick to indicate that the country is in a recession.
☆ Premarket stocks: Ronald Reagan's tax lesson for Britain
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Citibank analysts called the decision a “huge, unfunded gamble for the UK economy.” Markets dropped precipitously on the news. But much like Truss, Reagan argued that massive tax cuts and deregulation would stimulate productivity and he championed a sweeping tax cut that was passed by Congress that year. According to US Treasury estimates, Reagan’s tax cuts reduced federal revenues by about 9% in the first couple of years. A lesson from history: “When tax cuts are really too big to be sustainable, they’re often followed by tax increases,” wrote David Wessel, director of The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. The US dollar appreciated during the Reagan tax cuts because it benefits from global reserve currency status.
☆ The Fed is dragging the US into a recession to cool surging prices. Most Americans expect inflation to die down on its own.
  + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
Inflation expectations have been falling since the spring, signaling there's little chance of a 1980s-like price surge. Inflation expectations may seem like simple forecasts, but their effects on the economy can be dramatic. Anchored inflation expectations can put downward pressure on price growth as consumers reject large price hikes and businesses are pushed to compete with each other. Powell on Wednesday pointed to well-anchored inflation expectations as a boon, but noted the trend "is not grounds for complacency." "The longer the current bout of high inflation continues, the greater the chance that expectations of higher inflation will become entrenched," the chair said.
☆ Feared stock market bottom retest is now underway
  + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The first 60% reading was not at the decisive market low, though a year after each of them stocks were higher. The S & P index, maybe, at just under 16-times forecast profits, with some cross-asset models saying it should be perhaps two multiple points cheaper. Outside of the five largest S & P 500 names (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Tesla), the rest of the index is closer to a 14 multiple, with the equal-weighted S & P around 13. The three-year S & P 500 total return is still 9% annualized, meaning the bear hasn't yet really cut into muscle for longer-term investors. We'll see how this all plays into the feared market retest now underway.
☆ The Fed's fight against inflation could cost the US 1.2 million jobs
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Assuming no change in the labor force, that would mean around 1.2 million more people will be unemployed. "And it's really, at this point, like telling the tide not to come in -- to expect the labor market to soften." As the unemployment rate rises, workers lose bargaining power for higher wages and households pull back on spending. Powell has said that prolonged and entrenched high inflation would be even worse than moderate increases in the unemployment rate. "If we want to set ourselves up, light the way to another period of a very strong labor market, we have got to get inflation behind us.
☆ Take Five: Intervention watch is here
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. Election results from Italy, euro area inflation numbers and U.S. and Chinese data also give investors plenty to chew over. Japan's authorities finally had enough of a weak yen and intervened to stem a sharp decline against the dollar. Investors have already ramped up expectations for another 75 bps, ECB rate hike in October, so the data shouldn't change the near-term rate outlook. How a new government navigates an energy crunch that is pushing highly-indebted Italy into recession will also be under scrutiny.
☆ US economic barometer drops for sixth month in a row, potentially 'signaling a recession'
  + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
New York, NY (CNN) A comprehensive gauge on the health of the US economy dropped in August for the sixth straight month, reinforcing concerns about a possible recession. The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index for the United States dipped last month. Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director of economics at The Conference Board, said the six-month slump for this index is "potentially signaling a recession." "Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the US economy and is likely to contract. A major driver of this slowdown has been the Federal Reserve's rapid tightening of monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures," Ozyildirim said, adding that The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters.
☆ US economic barometer drops for sixth month in a row, potentially ‘signaling a recession’
  + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
New York, NY CNN —A comprehensive gauge on the health of the US economy dropped in August for the sixth straight month, reinforcing concerns about a possible recession. The Conference Board said Thursday that its Leading Economic Index for the United States dipped last month. “Recession dynamics are building steam,” Gurleen Chadha, US economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a note on Thursday. However, many economists say the jobs market remains too strong for the US economy to be in a recession. During recessions, businesses resort to widespread layoffs, and economic reports indicate that is not happening right now.
☆ The market is now caught up with the Fed, says former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson
  + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is now caught up with the Fed, says former Fed Vice Chair Roger FergusonRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to weigh in on the central bank's latest interest hike rate.
☆ U.S. leading indicator falls for sixth consecutive month in August
  + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
REUTERS/Sarah SilbigerWASHINGTON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - A gauge of future U.S. economic activity declined for a sixth straight month in August, potentially signaling a recession amid large interest rate increases from the Federal Reserve. The Conference Board said on Thursday its Leading Economic Index fell 0.3% last month after decreasing 0.5% in July. "Economic activity will continue slowing more broadly throughout the U.S. economy and is likely to contract," said Ataman Ozyildirim, senior economics director at the Conference Board in Washington. The Conference Board projects a recession in the coming quarters." It signaled more large increases to come this year.
☆ CEOs are very pessimistic right now, says The Conference Board's Steve Odland
  + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCEOs are very pessimistic right now, says The Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, president and CEO of The Conference Board, joins 'The Exchange' to juxtapose negative CEO sentiment with increases in consumer confidence, and discuss recession forecasts attached to Fed rate hikes and labor markets.
☆ The Fed needs to execute current strategy, says former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson
  + stars: | 2022-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed needs to execute current strategy, says former Fed Vice Chair Roger FergusonRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council, trustee of the Conference Board, and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' ahead of the Fed's forthcoming FOMC meeting to discuss inflation and more.
☆ Lower gas prices push consumer confidence to highest level since May
  + stars: | 2022-08-30 | by ( Martha C. White For Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
CNN —Lower gas prices helped consumer confidence bounce back in August, breaking a three-month stretch of worsening sentiment. “Expectations are more sensitive to movements in gas prices,” Shepherdson said in a research note, adding that the continued slide in gas prices could be a tailwind for the survey results. However, while the consumer confidence number is promising, “this is one month,” she cautioned. Consumer confidence is a pretty fickle reading.”The big risk is that what the gas pump giveth, the gas pump taketh away, as Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN Business in an opinion column published Tuesday. “It is a real drain on disposable income [and] it ends up acting as a depressant on consumer confidence,” Stovall said.
☆ All the economic good news, from jobs to inflation, was just a momentary blip. The worst is yet to come.
  + stars: | 2022-08-30 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +10 min
From inflation to consumer spending, there are clear signs that the economy is still in real danger of being pushed into a recession. While Americans' expectations for inflation over the next 12 months have ebbed somewhat, they're still sitting at 6.2%. With strong private demand, consumers are signaling that while labor-market conditions are strong, momentum is slipping. This means the increase in consumers' spending in the first half of the year was driven exclusively by them tapping into their savings. Prematurely easing inflation-reduction policy with inflation rates still elevated risks pushing up inflation expectations and entrenching a higher inflation rate into the economy.
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