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LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 19 (Reuters) - China added to crude oil stockpiles at the fastest rate in nearly three years in May, as robust imports outweighed near-record refinery processing. This was up 15.4% from the same month in 2022, and was the second-highest monthly total, eclipsed only by the 14.91 million bpd from March. The volume of crude available to refiners was 16.37 million bpd, consisting of imports of 12.11 million bpd and domestic output of 4.26 million bpd. It's worth noting that for the first five months of 2023 China's crude oil imports are up 6.2% to the equivalent of 11.13 million bpd. If the flows into storage and the rise in product exports are factored in, suddenly the increase in China's crude oil imports doesn't look quite as bullish as it may first appear.
Persons: China doesn't, It's, Jamie Freed Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, OPEC, Saudi Aramco, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, OPEC, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Saudi
Big increases from mostly coal-fired thermal generators (+149 billion kWh), wind farms (+79 billion kWh) and solar generators (+19 billion kWh) offset a fall in hydro production (-82 billion kWh). Chartbook: China electricity generationThe two provinces of Sichuan (354 billion kWh) and Yunnan (296 billion kWh) in southern China produced almost half of the country’s total hydro-electric power (1,352 billion kWh) in 2020. ENERGY SECURITYSouth China’s drought and reduced hydro generation explains why the central government has encouraged coal miners to maximise production and coal-fired generators to stockpile fuel. Coal imports increased by +86 million tonnes (+90%) in the first five months as generators and steelmakers took advantage of lower international prices to rebuild inventories. Large numbers of new coal-fired plants are being authorised and built to meet short-term load growth and reliability requirements even as government plans to reduce the share of coal-fired generation in the medium and long-term.
Persons: steelmakers, John Kemp, Barbara Lewis Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Coal, China Electricity Council, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Chartbook, Sichuan, Yunnan, Yibin
Retail sales - a key gauge of consumer confidence - rose 12.7%, missing forecasts of 13.6% growth and slowing from April's 18.4%. Data ranging from factory surveys and trade to loan growth and home sales have shown signs of weakness for the world's second-biggest economy. China's stock markets rose after the rates cut, with the benchmark CSI 300 gaining 0.6% in early trade, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index climbed 1.2%. The sector is expected to grapple with "persistent weakness" for years, dragging on economic growth, Goldman Sachs analysts said this week. The country's biggest banks recently cut their deposit rates to ease pressure on profit margins and encourage savers to spend more.
Persons: China's, Zhiwei Zhang, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Pang, Hong, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Yi, Goldman Sachs, Albee Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Jones, CSI, Capital Economics, Investment, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, outflows
[1/2] Employees work on a drilling machine production line at a factory in Zhangjiakou, Hebei province, China November 14, 2018. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected output growth to cool to 3.6% from 5.6% in April. Fixed asset investment expanded 4.0% in the first five months of 2023 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 4.4% rise. Analysts have cautioned that China's data readings last month may be highly distorted by comparisons with a very weak performance last year, when many cities were under stringent COVID lockdowns. Reporting by Albee Zhang, Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao; Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Stringer, Albee Zhang, Ellen Zhang, Kevin Yao, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, Analysts, Thomson Locations: Zhangjiakou, Hebei province, China, BEIJING
New home prices in May rose 0.1% month-on-month, slower than a 0.4% gain in March, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data. Additional easing measures are needed to revive the industry, economists say, adding to expectations Beijing will deliver stimulus such as further easing home purchase curbs in first-tier cities. Beijing's broad-based stimulus measures to prop up the embattled property market since late last year had boosted sentiment in the wake of the abrupt end of COVID-19 curbs in December. In annual terms, prices rose slightly for the first time since April 2022, up 0.1% last month after a 0.2% drop in April. China's central bank cut the borrowing cost of its medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday.
Persons: Yan Yuejin, Goldman Sachs, China's, Liangping Gao, Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes, Christopher Cushing Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, China Research, Development Institution, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China, COVID
BEIJING — China's youth unemployment rose to a record in May, while major data missed expectations, according to data released Thursday by the National Bureau of Statistics. The unemployment rate for young people ages 16 to 24 rose to 20.8% in May, a record and above the high set in April. Industrial production rose by 3.5% in May from a year ago, slower than the 3.6% expected by the Reuters poll. Analysts predicted a 4.4% increase in fixed asset investment for the first five months of the year from a year ago. Fixed asset investment for the first five months of the year rose by 4% from a year ago, slower than the 4.4% predicted by Reuters.
Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters Locations: Beijing, China, BEIJING
WASHINGTON — Two top Republican congressmen on Thursday urged the Justice Department to investigate intellectual property theft from American small businesses by Chinese actors. "Ensuring the safety of American small businesses from IP-related crimes is crucial, and we urge the U.S. Department of Justice to utilize all tools and capabilities at its disposal," the lawmakers wrote. Gallagher is chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, while Williams chairs the House Committee on Small Business. Evidence of Chinese IP theft from U.S. businesses dates back several years. In 2019, 1 in 5 North American companies on the CNBC Global CFO Council reported IP theft from Chinese companies within the last year.
Persons: Mike Gallagher, Elise Stefanik, Steve Scalise, Wisconsin, Roger Williams of, General Merrick Garland, Gallagher, Williams, China — Organizations: Chinese Communist Party, Republican National Committee, Washington , D.C, WASHINGTON —, Justice Department, U.S . Department of Justice, Small, National Bureau, Asian, Commission, American Intellectual, U.S . Trade Representative, U.S, CNBC Global, CCP, DOJ's, Force, Intellectual, Fox Business, China, GOP Locations: Washington ,, WASHINGTON, Roger Williams of Texas
BEIJING, June 15 (Reuters) - Property investment in China fell at a faster pace in January-May, dropping 7.2% from the same period a year earlier, official data showed on Thursday, adding to concerns about the outlook for the world's second-biggest economy. Property sales by floor area declined 0.9%, versus a 0.4% fall in the first four months, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). New construction starts measured by floor area fell 22.6%, after a 21.2% drop in the first four months. Funds raised by China's property developers were down 6.6% after a 6.4% slide in January-April. Reporting by Liangping Gao, Ella Cao and Ryan Woo; Editing by Kim Coghill and Tom HogueOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, Tom Hogue Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
The hope can be seen in the domestic iron ore price, with contracts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange outperforming Singapore futures. There are also some fundamental supports for the iron ore price, most noticeably declining inventories at China's ports. In the same week last year, inventories were at 128.3 million metric tonnes, or 1.6% above the current level. China iron ore imports vs SGX price:SOFT ECONOMIC DATACountering the positive indicators for iron ore demand is a raft of underwhelming economic data that shows China's rebound after ending its strict zero-COVID policy in December has been uneven. The weak data may actually boost iron ore sentiment, as investors will expect further stimulus measures from Beijing.
Persons: SteelHome, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Dalian, Exchange, China Iron and Steel Association, National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, Beijing, Singapore, Dalian, April's
The bubble in China's property market finally popped. In April, China's economic data came in weak largely across the board. The problem is that while consumers may be picking up, the biggest drivers of the Chinese economy — property and exports — are going to stay dormant. Consumer consumption makes up about 37% of the Chinese economy (in the US that figure is about 70%). Beijing has tried to shift the country toward a consumption model, like the US, but exports still make up 20% of China's economy.
Persons: lockdowns, it's, Xi Jinping, Stanley Druckenmiller, We're, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wei Yao, Leland Miller, Miller, Yao, Wright, I've, , Kearney, Linette Lopez Organizations: Trade, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Invest Conference, Bank of America's, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Societe Generale, Analysts, Beijing, China, Chinese Communist Party, China's Locations: China, globalism, Beijing, York, Asia
The recovery in China has been much slower than what other major countries experienced when they lifted their pandemic restrictions. Still, the Chinese consumer has proved to be resilient in the face of these broader economic challenges. It marked the fastest pace of growth since the first quarter of 2022, fueled by higher spending from Chinese consumers. Club stock results Recent financial results from our China-exposed companies show that Chinese consumers have been holding up even as broader economic recovery is delayed. China is a growth market for each company and improvement in economic activity there should be a catalyst for these stocks.
Persons: Estee Lauder, , Ting Lu, WYNN, hasn't, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jason Lee Organizations: Starbucks, Wynn Resorts, WYNN, China Index Academy, National Bureau of Statistics, Club, Gaming, Prestige, CNBC Locations: China, China's, Beijing, Macao, Asia, SBUX
BEIJING, June 12 (Reuters) - China's non-fossil fuel energy sources now exceed 50% of its total installed electricity generation capacity, state media outlet Xinhua said on Monday, citing an official at state planner the National Reform and Development Commission. Non-fossil fuel power sources, such as wind and solar power, account for 50.9% of the country's total installed capacity, marking the early completion of a government target proposed in 2021, under which renewable capacity was planned to exceed fossil fuel capacity by 2025. By the end of 2022, China's installed power generation capacity was 2,564.05 GW, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). However, inconsistent utilisation of the resources means that China's energy consumption mix remains weighted toward fossil fuels, principally coal. Coal accounted for 56.2% of total energy consumption last year, versus 25.9% from renewables which includes nuclear energy, the NBS data showed.
Persons: China's, Andrew Hayley, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Xinhua, National Reform and Development Commission, National Bureau of Statistics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
People walk past buildings in Shanghai, Shanghai, China, on Friday, April 21, 2023. Producer price index in May fell 4.6%, marking the steepest year-on-year drop in seven years, when producer prices saw a year-on-year drop of 7.2% in May 2016. China's low consumer inflation and deflation in its producer prices come in contrast to relatively high inflation in major economies around the world. The mining and raw material industries led declines in producer prices, while food, tobacco and alcohol prices led consumer price gains, the data showed. Nearing bottomDespite the softness in the latest price indexes, one China market watcher seemed to be holding on to an optimistic "long China" call.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Zhang, Andrew Maynard of Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, CPI, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S ., CSI, China's National Bureau, Statistics Locations: Shanghai, China, Canada, Australia, Shenzhen, Andrew Maynard of China
BEIJING, June 9 (Reuters) - China's factory gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven years in May and quicker than forecasts, as faltering demand weighed on a slowing manufacturing sector and cast a cloud over the fragile economic recovery. "The risk of deflation is still weighing on the economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, in a note. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but recent indicators show demand is rapidly weakening with exports, imports and factory activity falling in May. Food price inflation, a key driver of CPI, slowed to 1.0% year-on-year from 2.4% in the previous month. On a month-on-month basis, food prices fell 0.7%.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Dan Wang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Australia, Reuters, Capital Economics, Hang Seng Bank China, Bank of China, China's, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, United States, Europe, China
Behold Wall Street's new bull market, maybe
  + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Part of the uncertainty is that there is no set definition of a bull or bear market, or any sort of regulatory body that declares one, such as the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) does with recessions. The most commonly accepted definition is a 20% rise off a low for a bull market and a 20% decline from a high for a bear market, but even that is open to interpretation. "I just think it was a blip within a longer-term bear market." "Certainly it's a bull market in big-cap technology. I wouldn't call it a bull market in a broad market sense, because there are only certain stocks that are really in what we would call bull market territory, and it's just not a broad enough move to call it a sustainable bull market," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist Ingalls & Snyder in New York.
Persons: Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Dan Suzuki, Richard Bernstein, Suzuki, it's, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls, Snyder, Ned Davis, Chuck Mikolajczak, Noel Randewich, Lewis Organizations: YORK, National Bureau of Economic Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Dow Jones, Richard, Richard Bernstein Advisors, Nvidia, Ned Davis Research, Thomson Locations: New York
That hawkish change in market expectations has helped boost the U.S. dollar to its highest level since March. Just over 25% of economists in the poll, 23 of 86, forecast at least one Fed rate cut by the end of 2023, but that is down from 28% in the last poll. The U.S. Labor Department is due to release consumer price inflation data on June 13, the first day of the Fed meeting. "If most Fed officials feel at least another 25-basis-point hike will be necessary, it seems simplest to deliver that hike in June rather than 'skip'." Inflation as measured by core PCE was forecast to remain above 2% at least until 2025.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Philip Marey, Janet Yellen, Andrew Hollenhorst, Oscar Munoz, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, U.S, Rabobank, Treasury, Bank of Canada, U.S . Labor Department, Citi, National Bureau of Economic Research, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Canadian
CNN —For nearly 13 million high school students across China, Wednesday marks a day that could make or break their plans for college and the increasingly competitive job market beyond. A high score in the two-day “gaokao” college entrance exam is the only way to get into the country’s top universities, and most Chinese students only get one shot at the grueling test, unlike US students who can take the SAT several times. A user on Douyin, China’s version of TikTok, recalled taking the gaokao in 2000 when there were only about 3.75 million other test takers. The urban unemployment rate for 16- to 24-year-olds hit a record high of 20.4% in April, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics. And the rate could increase further, as a record 11.6 million college students are set to graduate this year.
Persons: gaokao, , TikTok, Fu Linghui, Xi Jinping’s Organizations: CNN, Getty, Authorities, Times, National Bureau of Statistics, NBS Locations: China, Shenyang, honking
The US is in a cardboard box recession, Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop said. According to the Fibre Box Association, that's led to a drop in cardboard box demand – an overlooked recession indicator that has preceded previous downturns for the US economy. "The Cardboard Box Recession may be good news for inflation," Kleintop said, pointing to positive inflation trends in Europe. The Fed could pause rate hikes as the inflation situation improves, which commentators have said could be bullish for stocks. The five-year, five-year forward rate, an estimate of the five-year inflation rate five years from now, dropped to 2.23% this week, per Federal Reserve data.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Jeffrey Kleintop, Kleintop, , Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop, that's Organizations: Service, Fibre, Association, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Europe
25-year-olds were less likely to be working full-time in 2021 than previous generations. That's driven by men working less than they did four decades ago. 66% of 25-year-olds in 2021 were working full-time, down from 73% of 25-year-olds in 1980. Four decades ago, 85% of 25-year-old men were working full-time. 61% of 25-year-old women were working full-time in 2021 — in line with the 61% that did so in 1980.
Persons: , there's, grads, Jason Schenker Organizations: Service, Privacy, Pew, Survey, Boston Fed, National Bureau of Economic Research, Prestige Economics
Some 93% of them report that they're preparing for a recession over the next 12 to 18 months, per a recent survey from the Conference Board. It's just another data point in an economy that's in a profoundly strange and confusing place. Although many think the economy is heading for a downturn, we still have strong employment, robust consumer spending and a rising stock market. Generally, a recession is accompanied by high unemployment, a dip in consumer spending and a drawdown in the stock market. Meanwhile, other aspects of the economy, such as a low unemployment rate and robust consumer spending, indicate all systems go.
Persons: you've, That's, It's, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, We've, Sonders Organizations: Conference Board, Investors, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve
Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. Despite outflows in February, April and May, foreigners' net purchases of mainland shares still stood at $25.05 billion for the first five months of this year, compared with net buying of about $6.36 billion worth over the whole of 2022. "Foreigners seem to have been selling because of the underwhelming near-term economic data points and, perhaps, because of the opportunities available to investors with a broader (pan-Asia or global) mandate," Pershad said. "We presume other investors have re-allocated some capital from China to those markets (and others) this year." Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Pruksa Iamthongthong, Refinitiv, Alexander Davey, Vikas Pershad, Pershad, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Stock Connect, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, PMI, Morningstar, Allianz All China Equity WT, HK, HSBC Asset Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, Morningstar ,, Taiwan, Shanghai, Asia, Bengaluru
Hong Kong CNN —A key gauge of China’s small- and medium-sized factories showed their surprise return to expansion last month, which eased market anxiety about growth stalling in the world’s second largest economy. The Caixin manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in May from April’s 49.5, according to a private survey. The Caixin survey is focused on small and medium-sized enterprises. Asian markets received a boost from the Caixin data. It settled 2% lower on Wednesday, weighed down by the weak China data and a stronger greenback.
Persons: Ken Cheung, Joe Biden, WTI Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, Mizuho Bank, Nikkei, China’s, US, Senate, greenback . Locations: Hong Kong, April’s, China, China’s Shanghai
Weakness in China's manufacturing sector has been matched by soft outcomes in other important parts of the world's second-biggest economy. Rather it is construction and manufacturing that propel commodity demand, especially for steel raw material iron ore and for copper. The softness in those sectors is likely to show up in commodity imports in coming months, but not yet. Seaborne iron ore imports are expected at about 93.29 million tonnes, according to Refinitiv data, which would be stronger than the 90.44 million tonnes recorded by customs in April. If this is the case, it's likely that they may consider trimming imports in coming months, especially if the run of soft economic data continues.
Persons: it's, Robert Birsel Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Refinitiv Oil Research, Global, Brent, Singapore, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, March's
New York CNN —Dollar General’s stock just had one of its worst days ever on Wall Street. But Dollar General’s worse-than-expected results point to a more-troubling reality for the nation’s consumer-dependent economy. When Dollar General’s core customers feel strained, they pull back completely. “Unfortunately, our customers are saying they’re having to rely more on food banks, savings, credit cards,” CEO Jeff Owen said on a call with analysts Thursday. Dollar General’s downbeat earnings also underscore the extreme disparity in how inflation is felt among high-income versus low-income shoppers.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Jeff Owen, Owen, haven’t, you’ve, That’s, , Neil Saunders, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dollar, Macy’s, Costco, Target, Walmart, National Bureau of Economic Research, Consumers, US Locations: New York, West Elm
Summary Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fallsNon-manufacturing PMI falls, as services slowPMIs show economic recovery losing steamMarkets skid on PMI weaknessBEIJING, May 31 (Reuters) - China's factory activity shrank faster than expected in May on weakening demand, heaping pressure on policymakers to shore up a patchy economic recovery and knocking Asian financial markets lower. "The PMI data reveal that China may heading to a K-shaped recovery," said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang LaSalle. "The sluggish domestic demand could weigh on China's sustainable growth, if there are no efficient and effective policy moves to engineer a broad-based recovery," said Pang. The PMI subindexes for May showed factory output swung to contraction from an expansion while new orders, including new exports, fell for the second month. Last month, imports contracted sharply, factory gate prices fell, property investment slumped, industrial profits plunged and factory output and retail sales both missed forecasts.
Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle's Pang, Li Qiang, Zhiwei Zhang, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: PMI, National Bureau of Statistics, . Service, New, Jones, Labor, Nomura, Barclays, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Asia, New Zealand, China, Japan
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