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☆ The Fed and war in the Middle East are the 2 things that could push the US economy into a recession, 'Dr. Doom' economist Nouriel Roubini says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy still faces two risks that could push it into a recession, Nouriel Roubini warned. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US is facing two risks that could push the economy into a recession, according to economist Nouriel Roubini. That will cause the Fed to push interest rates higher, a move that could overtighten financial conditions and push the US into a recession, Roubini warned. Meanwhile, bond yields could plunge as investors flock to safe-haven assets like US Treasurys, Roubini warned. Other economists have also warned of recession risks, despite the resilience of the economy and the stock market so far this year.

Persons: Roubini, Doom, —, Nouriel Roubini Organizations: Service, Fox Business, Fed, Societe Generale Locations: Israel, Iran

☆ The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal double-digit gains next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is following a rare pattern that could signal big gains next year, NDR said. The S&P 500 rallied for five months straight this year, followed by three consecutive months of losses. A five-month winning streak earlier this year was immediately followed by a three-month selloff from August through October. That's an unusual pattern in the history of the market, one that has only been observe four times since 1926. AdvertisementAdvertisement"Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 was up every time from one to 12 months later," the strategists said.

Persons: —, Ned Davis, That's, Tom Lee Organizations: NDR, Service, Ned Davis Research, Treasury

☆ US stocks rise as bond yields fall after the Fed keeps interest rates steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks climbed Monday as the Fed announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged. Bond yields ticked lower, with the 10-year Treasury yield slipping 11 basis-points. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors took in the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision. Fed officials chose to keep interest rates level at their November policy meeting, in-line with investors' expectations. The Fed funds rate is still in the 5.25%-5.5% range, the highest interest rates have been since 2001.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Service, Nasdaq Locations: US, Here's

☆ The S&P 500 could soar 16% in the next year as a 'buy' signal with strong track record close to flashing, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is close to flashing a "buy" signal with a strong track record, according to BofA. BofA's sell side indicator is three times closer to a "buy" reading than a "sell" reading. The indicator suggests 15.5% upside in the S&P 500 over the next year, analysts said. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is close to flashing a "buy" signal that's almost always resulted in positive returns for the S&P 500 in the following 12 months, according to Bank of America. That's caused equities to look less attractive and ratcheted up fears of a coming recession, sparking a sell-off in stocks that drove the S&P 500 to its third-straight monthly loss.

Persons: —, Bank of America's Savita Subramanian Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Wall, SSI, Bank of America's, Fed

☆ The stock market is approaching a 'once-in-a-generation' buying opportunity as profits are about to take off almost everywhere, investment firm says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That means earnings are about to take off in nearly every area of the market, the firm said. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors could soon face a once-in-a-lifetime investment opportunity in stocks, thanks to a coming pop in corporate profits across sectors of the market, according to the investment firm Richard Bernstein Advisors. "Furthering the airplane metaphor, we see profits taking off …Corporate profits are accelerating and the overall economy looks set to remain quite healthy." In the US, leading indicators for corporate profits have also bottomed, which suggest that earnings will gain momentum into next year. "Such narrow leadership seems totally unjustified and their extreme valuations suggest a once-in-a-generation investment opportunity in virtually anything other than those 7 stocks," the firm added.

Persons: RBA, —, Richard Bernstein Organizations: Service, Richard Bernstein Advisors

☆ China's economy stumbled again in recent months with factory activity falling and foreign investment plunging 34%
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-31 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

China's economy has stumbled since coming out of the country's COVID-19 lockdown late last year. Factory activity declined in October, while foreign investment tumbled 34% in September. Experts say the nation is at risk of a debt-deflation crisis that could produce a "lost decade" for its economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementData from September and October show China's economy stumbling further, with factory activity falling and foreign investment seeing a significant decline. Factory activity dropped through the month of October, with China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index falling to restrictive territory at 49.5.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, China's Commerce Ministry, Ministry, CSI Locations: China, Beijing, freefall

☆ Here's 3 reasons why Wall Street giants say investors should pay attention to Treasurys as yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007 this week. The gap between higher dividend yield stocks and the 10-year US Treasury yield has completely closed. Bond yields probably aren't falling soonTreasury yields are likely staying elevated, thanks to the Fed's committement to keeping a lid on inflation. Central bankers have raised rates 525 basis-points over the past year to lower high prices, which has helped pushed Treasury yields higher. Other market forecasters have warned of more trouble ahead in equities, especially as higher bond yields draw investors away from the stock market.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs, there's, they've Organizations: Treasury, Service, Bank of America, Goldman, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Vanguard

☆ US stocks end mixed as investors digest latest earnings and inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors took in fresh inflation data and corporate earnings. All three benchmark indexes notched weekly losses, with the S&P 500 sliding into correction territory. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks traded mixed on Friday as investors took in fresh inflation data and more corporate earnings reports. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors also digested the latest wave of corporate earnings this week, with Amazon jumping 6% after a stellar third-quarter earnings report.

Persons: —, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Commerce Department, stoke, Financial, Amazon, Here's

☆ The S&P 500 will rocket 18% by year-end as the economy stays strong and the Fed ends interest rate hikes, Oppenheimer investment chief says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could soar another 18% by year-end, according to Oppenheimer. In an interview with CNBC on Thursday, Stoltzfus reiterated his S&P 500 price target of 4,900 by the end of the year. Of the 17% of S&P 500 companies that reported third-quarter earnings last week, 73% have beaten analysts' estimates, according to FactSet data. That could be bullish for stocks, considering that rate hikes weighed the S&P 500 down heavily in 2022. In 2022, he predicted the S&P 500 would surge to 5,330, but then slashed that target several times as the year went on.

Persons: Oppenheimer, That's, —, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus, You've, that's Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Fed, Treasury

☆ Russia's worker shortage is so bad the economy is leaning on the Soviet-era practice of using prison labor, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is leaning more on prison labor amid a dearth of available workers. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia's worker shortage is so bad, the nation is increasingly leaning on prison labor to prop up its ailing industries and make up for a lack of manpower. That exceeded estimates that Russia made the year prior, when budget makers anticipated bringing in just 15.8 billion roubles from forced prison labor. "The Kremlin has sought to integrate prison labor with certain sectors of the domestic economy to solve this issue." "The recent uptick in the use of forced prison labor in Russia is not merely the transient trend of a post-COVID, economically troubled, or war-hurt Russia.

Persons: —, Sergey Sukhankin, Sukhankin, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Service, Moscow Times, Russia's Federal, Jamestown Foundation, Jamestown, Soviet Locations: Russia, Soviet, Ukraine

☆ There's nothing stopping the 10-year Treasury from continuing to surge, market forecaster says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

There's nothing stopping bond yields from continuing to rise, according to forecaster Jim Bianco. Bianco made the case that the Treasury yield curve looks on track to completely de-invert. AdvertisementAdvertisementThere's nothing stopping the 10-year Treasury yield from continuing to surge past 5%, as the yield curve looks poised to completely de-invert, according to market forecaster Jim Bianco. But rates actually haven't been restrictive enough to "hurt the economy," Bianco said, with a handful of indicators that point to still-robust economic activity. Long-term yields could also be pushed up as the US looks to issue more long-term Treasury notes, Bianco added.

Persons: Jim Bianco, Bianco, — Organizations: Service, Wall Street, Bianco Research, Treasury, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Bank of Japan

☆ Rising Treasury yields are impacting you regardless of where your money is invested. Here's how.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementIf you've paid even a bit of attention to the market over the past few months, chances are you've heard the commotion over US Treasury yields. (Prices and yields are inversely related; the more people sell Treasurys, the higher their yields go, and vice versa.) But even if you have zero interest in the market, Treasury volatility impacts you. So yes, Treasury yields could fall.

Persons: —, you've, Insider's Jennifer Sor, Uncle Sam, Treasurys, Alistair Barr, Bill Ackman, Ackman, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: Service, Treasury, Federal Locations: New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Insider Today: You should buy a house now
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementAdvertisementIn today's big story, we're looking at why it's a good time to buy a house. RichLegg/Getty ImagesIt's a pretty terrible time to buy a house these days, which is why it's a good time to buy a house. AdvertisementAdvertisementInsider's Jennifer Sor detailed why it's a good time to buy a house. Part of the issue is that mortgage rates won't magically drop overnight. The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, senior editor and anchor, in New York City.

Persons: OpenAI's Sam Altman, Jennifer Sor, Jacob Zinkula, they're, that's, Gen Zers, who's, it's, Doug Haynes, Haynes, Steve Cohen's Point72, Leon Cooperman isn't, Arantza Pena Popo, carmakers, EVs, Tyler Le, Satya Nadella, Mathias Döpfner, Axel Springer, Jensen Huang, Dan DeFrancesco, Naga Siu, Hallam Bullock, Lisa Ryan Organizations: FBI, RichLegg, Norias Research, Investments, Ameriprise, Insurance, Microsoft, Activision Blizzard, Nvidia, ZTE Corp, Philips, NBA Locations: West Palm Beach, Fla, Tokyo, Oklahoma City, New York City, San Diego, London, New York

☆ Why now is actually a good time to buy a house
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

And yet, there's an argument to be made for getting in now if you can find something, even amid 20-year high mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices. Mortgage rates at 8% have sidelined a good portion of the competition. High mortgage rates are the new normalThat message doesn't appear to be getting through to prospective homebuyers, who have made themselves scarce as mortgage rates have continued their steady rise in 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementFairweather sees mortgage rates staying where they are until the Fed begins to cut rates in mid-2024. That could cause mortgage rates to ease around 100 basis-points next year, dropping as low as 7%.

Persons: —, Barbara Corcoran, don't, Lawrence Yun, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Corcoran, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve

☆ Home prices could drop 5% next year if mortgage rates stay at 2-decade highs, Morgan Stanley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Home prices could drop as much as 5% next year if mortgage rates stay at this level, Morgan Stanley said. AdvertisementAdvertisementBuyers sidelined from the housing market could find some relief in 2024, as home prices could drop next year if mortgage rates stay close to their current levels, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank's strategists pointed to the recent surge in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed rate climbing to 8% this week. Rising mortgage rates sidelined a good deal of buyers and sellers from the housing market through 2022 and 2023. "Longer term, if mortgage rates were to stay close to 8%, the headwinds this would represent for demand could prove to have a more negative impact on home prices," Morgan Stanley said.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Morgan Stanley's, That's Organizations: Service, Treasury, National Association of Realtors

☆ China stocks have wiped out all of their gains since reopening from pandemic lockdowns
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Chinese stocks have wiped out all of their gains since the nation reopened its economy. Investors are fretting over the slew of economic headwinds Beijing currently faces. That's even lower than when Chinese stocks troughed last October, right before the nation announced it would start to dial back its strict lockdown measures. Over the past week alone, foreign investors dumped a net 24 billion yuan, or $3.3 billion, of onshore Chinese stocks, the most since mid-August, according to Bloomberg. Still, experts are warning of a grim future ahead of China as it battles a slew of economic headwinds.

Persons: —, Ruchir Sharma Organizations: CSI, Service, Bloomberg Locations: Beijing, China, Israel, Hong, Kong

☆ Americans are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Consumers are about to feel the impact of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray told the FT. Higher bond yields are raising borrowing costs all over the economy, from mortgages to personal loans. AdvertisementAdvertisementAmerican consumers are about to feel the sting of soaring bond yields, Blackstone president Johnathan Gray said. Bond yields, which impact borrowing costs for all kinds of loan products, moved higher this week as investors fretted over higher-for-longer interest rates. In some corners of the economy, rising yields and higher borrowing costs have already been acutely felt.

Persons: Blackstone, Johnathan Gray, —, Bond, Gray, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Treasury, Service, Financial Times, Mortgage, Federal, Federal Reserve, Consumers, San Francisco Fed

☆ Distressed commercial real estate debt hit $80 billion last quarter, the highest amount in a decade
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Distressed commercial real estate debt climbed to a 10-year high last quarter. Total distressed debt hit $80 billion, though there are $216 billion of potentially distressed properties. AdvertisementAdvertisementPressures are building on the commercial real estate sector, with distressed debt on commercial properties climbing to a 10-year record the past quarter. Distressed debt tied to office buildings took up the largest share at $32 billion, or 41% of the total distressed debt. That was followed by retail properties, with a sum $21 billion, and hotel properties, with $14 billion in distressed debt.

Persons: —, MSCI Organizations: Service, MSCI, Bloomberg

☆ Russia's economy is headed into the 'snare of perpetual war' as the Kremlin plans record-high military spending for 2024, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia's economy is in for the "snare of perpetual war," the Carnegie Endowment said. But spending even more on the military could set up the economy for high inflation and a deteriorating quality of life. "The record defense spending shows that the Kremlin has no intention of ending its war against Ukraine anytime soon: on the contrary. "By staking everything on rising military expenditure, the Kremlin is forcing the economy into the snare of perpetual war." Other experts have warned of trouble brewing ahead for Russia's economy as war continues to rage in Ukraine.

Persons: — Organizations: Carnegie Endowment, Kremlin, Service, Ukraine –, International, Atlantic Council Locations: Russia, Ukraine

☆ A spot bitcoin ETF is coming this year and the SEC's loss in court made clear that its opposition makes 'intellectually zero sense,' billionaire crypto bull Mike Novogratz says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

A spot bitcoin ETF could be coming as soon as this year, crypto bull Mike Novogratz said. Still, regulators have repeatedly punted on a decision to approve any bitcoin ETF this year. AdvertisementAdvertisementA spot bitcoin exchange traded fund is coming as soon as 2023, according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. The billionaire crypto bull pointed to multiple requests by firms to launch a spot bitcoin ETF over the past year. There's also high demand for a spot bitcoin ETF.

Persons: Mike Novogratz, —, Novogratz, There's, Bitcoin, Larry Fink's Organizations: CNBC, Service, Galaxy Digital, Securities and Exchange Commission, SEC, BlackRock Locations: BlackRock

☆ US stocks trade mixed as bond yields spike after hot retail sales data
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks traded mixed on Tuesday as bond yields surged after a blowout retail sales report. Retail sales jumped 0.7% in September from the prior month, more than double forecasts. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks finished mixed on Tuesday as investors took in higher Treasury yields and a hotter-than-expected retail sales report. Retail sales rose 0.7% through the month of September, blowing past economists' expectations for a 0.3% monthly gain. "Retail sales showed a big upside surprise today, to the Fed's dismay," Bolvin Wealth Management Group president Gina Bolvin said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Stocks, —, Gina Bolvin Organizations: Retail, Service, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Nasdaq

☆ There are 2 signs that stock market euphoria is mirroring past bubbles and could end badly for investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The stock market is going through a "euphoria" episode that will end badly, according to Smead Capital. Other commentators have warned of market downside as interest rates stay higher for longer. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe stock market is going through a "euphoria" that could end badly for equity investors, according to investment advisor Smead Capital. "In our conversations with investors, we are pointing out the 'totality' of this financial euphoria episode. Other Wall Street commentators have warned of more downside ahead for equities as interest rates stay higher-f0r-longer.

Persons: —, Smead Organizations: Smead Capital, Service, Smead, South Seas Locations: Amsterdam

☆ Volatility in the Treasury market likely isn't over and the 10-year yield could reach 5%, BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The asset manager said the 10-year Treasury yield will probably hit 5%. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US Treasury market is still in for big swings of volatility, which could push the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond to 5%, according to BlackRock. "We have been underweight long-term US Treasuries since late 2020 as we saw the new macro regime heralding higher rates. Over the short-term though, Treasury yields are likely to experience more volatility, potentially swinging in both directions. But the economy is still under pressure from higher Treasury yields, which also work to tighten the screws on financial conditions.

Persons: —, Phillip Colmar Organizations: US Treasury, BlackRock, Service, Treasury, MRB Partners, Fed Locations: BlackRock

☆ Shares of luxury brands are tumbling in a sign consumers' high-end spending spree is over
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The boom in luxury goods is over as consumers pull back on their multiyear high-end spending spree. AdvertisementAdvertisementIn the US, card spending for luxury fashion has been on the decline for six quarters in a row, with luxury fashion spending down 16% year-over-year over the past quarter, Bank of America card data shows. Card spending on luxury fashion has declined for six quarters in a row. Bank of AmericaUS card spending on luxury fashion declined 16% year-per-year the past quarter, Bank of America forecasts. That's because European investors often say tech stocks are a competitor to luxury stocks in their portfolios, Colas said.

Persons: —, LVMH, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, Ralph Lauren, Colas, Kelly Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Bank of America US, Industry, Consumers, San Francisco Fed, Tech Locations: LVMH, Paris

☆ China's economic partnership with Russia is so lopsided that Putin needs the help of the US — but he'd never admit that, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Russia's "no limits" partnership with China is hurting its own economy, one think tank says. The think tank says the relationship is so imbalanced that Russia may need the US's help — though Putin would never admit it. But the think tank argues that much of the partnership has been more to Beijing's benefit than it has been to Moscow. Though China is one of Russia's only reliable trading partners at the moment, the nation has neglected to make major investments in Russia, Graham noted. And Russia's economy now appears to be so dependent on China, that the nation needs the help of the US to counterbalance it, Graham said.

Persons: —, Putin, Thomas Graham, Graham, Xi Jingping Organizations: Service, Foreign Relations, Kremlin, Foreign Affairs, Russia, Administration of Customs, Central Intelligence Agency, US Defense Intelligence Agency, Economic Forum Locations: China, Russia, Beijing, Moscow, York, Ukraine, Asia, India, Western, United States

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