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☆ The US economy is in for rollercoaster inflation and could be headed for an ultra-rare 'full employment recession,' BlackRock says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The economy is in for rollercoaster inflation that could hurt corporate profits, BlackRock strategists said. Markets are in a new regime of volatility that could bring on a "full employment recession," they added. But at the same time, the labor market remains tight, which is driving wage inflation as workers push for higher pay. A rollercoaster trajectory over the next quarters before inflation likely settles near 3% – well above the Fed's 2% target," strategists said. That rollercoaster could potentially spell bad news for stocks: High inflation can weather corporate profits by increasing costs for firms.

Organizations: BlackRock, Service, New, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon, downturns, Europe

☆ This is how investors should respond to the fresh pressure facing chipmakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The generative artificial intelligence boom has seen semiconductor stocks soar this year, no more so than Club holding Nvidia (NVDA). We're more cautious on AMD going into its earnings print on Aug. 1, as it doesn't have the same outsized exposure to generative AI technology as Nvidia. Similarly, in a research note Monday, analysts at JMP Securities said that while "demand around generative AI remains extremely robust," elsewhere enterprise IT budgets remain constrained. Semiconductor firms are either basking in the glory of generative AI demand, or working through excess inventory and IT budget-optimization dynamics. And when the semiconductor firms report next month, investors will have a clearer sense on inventory challenges.

Persons: TSM, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Tyrone Siu Organizations: Nvidia, Devices, AMD, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, JMP Securities, Semiconductor, Club, Microsoft, CNBC, Nvidia Corporation Locations: China, Taipei, Taiwan

☆ Analysts are getting even more bullish on Apple into its earnings report
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Two analysts raised their expectations for Apple shares, a week ahead of the technology giant's next earnings report. Deutsche Bank analyst Sidney Ho reiterated his buy rating on the Big Tech stock while raising his price target by $30 to $210. Wells Fargo analyst Aaron Rakers also upped his price target on Sunday, bringing his expected price per share to $225 from $210. The new price target from Rakers, who has an overweight rating on the stock, shows that he thinks shares could jump 17.2% over the next year. He said to expect an in-line revenue report and slight beat to expectations for earnings per share.

Persons: Sidney Ho, AAPL, Ho, Apple, Wall, Wells, Aaron Rakers, Rakers, Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Deutsche Bank, Big Tech

☆ What we hope to see from 9 Club stocks out with earnings in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-22 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +14 min

Looking to next week, earnings season will ramp up — and though we'll get some important economic data, expect the corporate releases and management commentary on the post-game calls to be firmly in the driver's seat. Here are two important things to know for the week ahead. Quarterly earnings : As important as economic releases are, it's earnings that will garner the bulk of investors' attention. For those looking to review first-quarter performance ahead of these releases, keep our first-quarter earnings report card handy. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead.

Persons: Dow, we'll, we've, Lawrence Yun, Jerome Powell's, Sartorius, Sartorius preannounced, It's, management's, We'll, Tesla, Ford's, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, Clark, Lam, Edwards Lifesciences, Hewlett, Northrop, Dr Pepper, Davidson, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, Economic, National Association of Realtors, Nine, GE Healthcare, Microsoft, YouTube, Linde, LIN, Honeywell, Aerospace, Technologies, Ford, Procter & Gamble, Dynex, HBT, Hope Bancorp, NXP Semiconductors, Cadence Design Systems, Whirlpool, Logitech International, Liberty Global, Verizon Communications, General Motors, General Electric, GE, Spotify, Raytheon Technologies, Daniels, Midland, Albertsons Companies, ACI, Polaris Industries, Inc, Dow Chemical, DOW, Xerox, Texas Instruments, WM, Canadian National Railway Company, Chubb Corporation, Universal Health Services, Powell, Boeing, Hilton, Union Pacific, General Dynamics, Quest Diagnostics, Otis Worldwide, Grill, Lam Research, eBay, EBAY, Mattel, Hewlett Packard, L3Harris Technologies, Gross, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Southwest Airlines, Mastercard, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Hertz, Tractor Supply Company, HCA Healthcare, Boston, Hershey, Comcast, Harley, Norfolk Southern, Intel, Mobile, United States Steel Corp, KLA Corporation, Boston Beer Company, Nation Entertainment, Texas, Procter, Gamble, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Charter Communications, AstraZeneca, Colgate, Palmolive, Newell Brands, Sanofi, Dwight, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, Hollywood, Cleveland, Corning, Kimberly, Bristol, Norfolk

A "Hollywood ending" for Herc has been postponed, according to Bank America. Analyst Sherif El-Sabbahy double-downgraded shares to underperform from buy, citing the near-term impact from the ongoing writers and actors strike in Hollywood. Herc rents out equipment such as forklifts, generators and light towers companies across different industries, including entertainment. We expect the impact in Q2 will be notably higher, given work stoppages driven by the writers' (and now actors) strike." The stock is up 8.1% in 2023 as shares rallied more than 38% over the past 12 months.

Persons: Herc, Sherif El, Sabbahy, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank America Locations: Hollywood

☆ AmEx's profit view dampens strong results from record card spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Manya Saini | Thomson Reuters | Manya Saini Reports On Prominent Publicly Listed U.S. Financial Firms Including Wall Street S Biggest Banks | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Results were strong, though spending growth is moderating from unsustainably high rates in 2022," said Edward Jones analyst Kyle Sanders. These worries took the shine off a record quarter in which spending surged to $426.6 billion despite rapid interest rate hikes by the U.S. central bank ushering in an end to easy money. "Our base is changing in terms of more Millennials and Gen Z who will grow with us. Millennial and Gen Z were its fastest-growing customer base as their combined spending surged 21% in the U.S. from a year ago. Despite that, AmEx just reaffirmed its per-share profit forecast of $11 to $11.40 for 2023 after reporting a market-beating profit of $2.89 per share.

Persons: Edward Jones, Kyle Sanders, Gen Z, Stephen Squeri, Gen, Jeff Campbell, AmEx, Campbell, Christophe Le Caillec, Manya Saini, Anil D'Silva, Arun Koyyur Organizations: American Express, U.S, RBC Capital Markets, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bengaluru

☆ There's more pain coming for residential and commercial real estate as tight credit and job worries threaten property markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Residential and commercial real estate have more pain coming as financial conditions tighten, Wells Fargo said. Commercial real estate is struggling as work-from-home trends remain popular, the bank said. Meanwhile, in commercial real estate, office demand is still way down as work-from-home trends remain popular. "We expect commercial real estate to underperform on a relative basis in the near-to-intermediate term," Wren said of the sector. Meanwhile, commercial real estate prices are in danger of falling dramatically, with Morgan Stanley strategists predicting a 40% peak-to-trough decline.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, that's, Wren, Banks, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Housing, Service, Silicon Valley Bank, National Association of Realtors, Real Estate Investment Locations: Wall, Silicon, Wells Fargo, underperform

☆ ASML shares surged more than 30% this year. Here's where Wall Street sees the stock going
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Shares of ASML have soared this year on the buzz around semiconductor firms and artificial intelligence. He added that the risk posed by the China restrictions represents about 5% of its revenue and backlog. But he described ASML as a very high quality business that will benefit from the growth of the semiconductor market. He predicts that semiconductor market revenue will be worth about $1 trillion in 2030. Analysts covering the company gave its Netherlands-listed shares potential average upside of nearly 13%.

Persons: ASML, Trent Masters, Masters, Morgan Stanley, Jefferies, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, Samsung, CNBC, UBS, ASML, Trent, NVIDIA, Analysts Locations: Netherlands, U.S, China, Alphinity

☆ Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, AT&T, Tesla, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Spotify and more
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

JPMorgan adds Qualcomm and HP Inc. to the focus list JPMorgan added HP Inc. to the focus list and said it's a top value idea. The firm also added Qualcomm to the focus list and says it's a top growth idea. JPMorgan adds Charles Schwab to the focus list JPMorgan added the stock to its focus list after its earnings report and said it sees "improving fundamentals." Bank of America reiterates Amazon as buy Bank of America said it's bullish heading into Amazon earnings later this month. Bank of America reiterates Block as buy Bank of America said shares of the company formerly known as Square are undervalued.

Persons: Tesla, it's, Charles Schwab, Schwab, Jefferies, Berkshire Hathaway, Archer, Guggenheim, ServiceNow Organizations: JPMorgan, Qualcomm, HP Inc, Watch, Cisco, " Bank of America, of America, Bank of America, Meta, UBS, Berkshire, Citi, Republic Services, Hollywood, Argus, Street, Aviation, UW, DuPont, Texas, Microsoft, Apple Locations: 2023E, 2025E, Berkshire, ACHR, EE

☆ Wall Street is bullish on Big Tech heading into earnings — here's what we think
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street kicked off the week with bullish takes on several high-flying tech stocks in the portfolio — validating our decision to stick with these mega-caps heading into quarterly earnings. It's also important to understand that some price target raises are just chasing a big move, and that the price reaction to an earnings release has less to do with the results and much more to do with expectations. It's also why Citigroup also put AMD on a "negative catalyst watch," meaning it is negative on the stock heading into earnings. In the analysts' view, Apple has an opportunity to grow its revenue by seven times in the U.S. over the next decade to about $40 billion, while adding 170 million new users. Microsoft What the analysts say: Analysts at Mizuho reiterated their buy rating on Microsoft while taking up their price target to $390 from $360.

Persons: bullish, Meta, It's, CUDA, Morgan Stanley, we're, —, Jim Cramer, monetize, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jensen Huang, Sam Yeh Organizations: Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Devices, Citigroup, AMD, Intel, Mizuho, Activision Blizzard, JMP Securities, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Afp, Getty Locations: U.S, China, India, Taipei

☆ Why declaring victory over inflation too soon may be a mistake for economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Natalie Rose Goldberg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The market is fully expecting another interest rate hike from the Fed in July, after it skipped a rate hike in June. For the Fed, ideal inflation is in the target range of 2%. But he is more encouraged about the economy avoiding recession, which recent economic history said would not be possible. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed her commitment to lowering inflation even further on "Squawk on the Street" last week. "It's really too early to say that we can declare victory on inflation.

Persons: Tom Werner, Jerome Powell, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Paul McCulley, Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Lee, Liz Young, Roger Ferguson, Ferguson, Hugh Johnston, they've, CFOs, Milton Friedman's, Pimco, Tiffany Wilding, Wilding, Mary Daly Organizations: Federal Reserve, Market Committee, Fed, CME Fed, Yardeni, Dow Jones, Dow, PepsiCo, CNBC, Francisco Fed Locations: U.S, Georgetown

☆ Here are our top 4 stocks and worst 4 stocks to start the second half of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-15 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

There are some new names on both the July leaders and July laggards list since we did this exercise looking at our January to June portfolio performance. META 1M mountain Meta stock performance month-to-date. Meta Platforms (META) remains a top performer in the portfolio to start the second half, rising 7.6% for the first two weeks of July after more than doubling in the first half. To start out the first half of 2023, Nvidia was our top-performing stock in the portfolio with nearly a triple. The analysts warned that FL's high exposure to lower-income consumers could pressure the second half of the year.

Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim, Meta, Baird, Mary Dillon, Foot, Nikesh Arora, PANW, Eli Lilly, Lilly, Mounjaro that's, Johnson, Jim Cramer, Brendan McDermid Organizations: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust, Investing, Nasdaq, HAL, Halliburton, Natural Resources, Coterra Energy, Meta, Nvidia, Apple, Alto Networks, Palo Alto Networks, Microsoft, PANW, Palo, Reuters, Nordisk, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, & ' $ Locations: North America, FL, PANW, Palo, New York City, U.S

☆ These are the 3 key things that will impact the stock market in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-15 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

A lot was riding on these important measures of inflation after the scorching-hot ADP jobs report last week. Here are 3 things you need to know for the week ahead: 1. Industrial production and capacity utilization, also out Tuesday, shines a light on manufacturing, which attributes about 12% to U.S. GDP. Six months is generally considered to represent a balance between supply and demand in the housing market. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Stocks, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Jeff Miller, Lockheed Martin, Charles Schwab, JB Hunt, Goldman, Baker Hughes, Ally, Kinder Morgan, Zions, Philip Morris, Abbott, ABT, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Scott Olson Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Housing, CPI, Halliburton, HAL, Johnson, of America Corp, Lockheed, Lockheed Martin Corp, Novartis International AG, PNC Financial Services Group, Inc, PNC, Charles Schwab Corp, Bank of New York Mellon Corporation, BK, Synchrony, Interactive, Goldman Sachs Group, U.S . Bancorp, ASML, Citizens Financial, T Bank Corp, Northern Trust Corporation, Horizon National Corp, Business Machines Corp, IBM, United Airlines, Netflix, Steel Dynamics, Alcoa, Discover Financial Services, Crown, International Corp, Equifax Inc, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Liberty Energy Inc, Philip Morris International Inc, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, American Airlines Group Inc, Travelers Companies, SAP, Nokia Corp, Truist Financial Corporation, Company, McLennan Companies, Infosys Technologies Ltd, Newmont Mining Corp, Fifth Third Bancorp, Pool Corporation, Alfa Laval, Webster Financial Corp, Blackstone, Financial Corp, PPG Industries, CSX Corp, CSX, Berkley Corp, Swift Transportation Holdings Inc, American Express Co, AutoNation Inc, Interpublic, of Companies, Autoliv Inc, Huntington Bancshares, Financial Corporation, Roper Technologies, Comerica, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Getty Locations: U.S, Las, ZION, Horton, Freeport, Marsh, ALFVY, W.R, Lemont , Illinois

☆ Morgan Stanley downgrades SoFi, says stock should be valued like a bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

SoFi Technologies is worth selling as it acts more like a full-fledged bank, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Jeffrey Adelson downgraded the financial stock to underweight while raising his price target by 50 cents to $7. "We previously valued SOFI on a growth-adj. "But as SOFI looks increasingly like a bank, we believe it needs to be valued more like a bank." SoFi has been considered a full bank for about a year and a half, he said, after being previously seen as more of a financial technology stock.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jeffrey Adelson, Adelson's, Adelson, that's, SoFi, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Locations: Wednesday's

☆ 3 health-care stocks are in the headlines. How the news impacts our investments
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | In Kevinstankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

In April, alongside its first-quarter results, J & J raised its full-year sales guidance by about $1 billion and its earnings-per-share outlook by 15 cents. Clearing this overhang would help reduce the discount at which J & J shares to pharmaceutical peers, the firm said. The Club's take: JPMorgan's thinking on J & J aligns quite closely with our own. The dark cloud of talc lawsuits continues to keep a lid on J & J's stock price. Joaquin Duato, chief executive officer of Johnson & Johnson, at the company's headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey, U.S., on Thursday, April 21, 2022.

Persons: Johnson, Eli Lilly, J, Wells, Wells Fargo, Eli Lilly's, —, Eisai, Biogen, Bloomberg, we've, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Joaquin Duato, Amir Hamia Organizations: Johnson, JPMorgan, pharma, U.S ., Humana, UnitedHealth, Bloomberg, U.S, Mayo Clinic, Club, GE Healthcare, CNBC, Getty, & $ Locations: U.S, California, Wells Fargo, Rochester , Minnesota, New Brunswick , New Jersey

☆ Beware of these possible blowups this earnings season, Wolfe Research warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Our quarterly earnings quality (EQ) score is an objective way to identify potential accounting related short ideas and as a risk tool to avoid potential blow-ups in the portfolio," Senyek said. CNBC pulled six stocks from the Wolfe list across a range of sectors. Rivian made the list with an earnings quality score of just 3. Shockwave Medical , meanwhile, fits on the Wolfe list due to issues pertaining to cash flow constraints and research and development amortization. In consumer staples, Dick's Sporting Goods is on the Wolfe list with a rating of 9 out of 100.

Persons: Wolfe, Chris Senyek, Senyek, Rivian, Morgan Stanley, Dick's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, FactSet, Shockwave, ShockWave, Centers, Medicare, Medicaid Services, Sporting Goods, Lucid

☆ JPMorgan's top equity guru says buy more government bonds, avoid stocks as a recession looms at the turn of the year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investors should buy more government bonds to brace for the likelihood of a recession hitting later this year, JPMorgan's top equity strategist says. Investors are increasingly deserting defensive positions as more market participants expect a soft landing scenario for the economy. But JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic said investors are mistaken and continues to see a year-end recession as his base case outlook. "This benign and complacent pricing of recession risk, along with increasing signs that a credit cycle is emerging, makes us turn more negative on corporate bonds and more positive on government bonds," Kolanovic wrote to clients Monday. "We therefore trim our allocation to credit by shifting two percentage points away from corporate bonds and into government bonds in our model portfolio," Kolanovic wrote.

Persons: JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic Organizations: Nasdaq Locations: 4Q23

☆ Citi downgrades U.S. stocks, sees S&P 500 pull back 9% to 4,000
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Strategists at Citi downgraded U.S. equities after a strong first half of 2023, saying an economic slowdown will weigh on company earnings. The Wall Street firm slashed the rating to neutral from overweight Monday and said the S & P 500 will pull back 9% to end the year at 4,000. "After a solid 1H, US outperformance may go on pause," Citi strategists said in a note. The market ended the first half of the year with a bang as the S & P 500 popped 15.9% for its best first half since 2019. The S & P 500 shed 1.2% last week.

Organizations: Citi, US Strategy, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, CNBC

☆ What people are saying about Ant Group's $984 mln fine and share buyback
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

July 10 (Reuters) - China's Ant Group has announced a surprise share buyback that values the fintech giant at $78.5 billion, well below the $315 billion touted in an abandoned IPO in 2020, in a move that may let some investors exit. "And second, of course, we're talking about the share buyback plan. DICKIE WONG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AT KINGSTON SECURITIES IN HONG KONG:"Their share prices have strongly rebound today mainly driven by the expectation that regulatory pressure from mainland government will ease. Ant Group is on the right track to achieve their final target of an IPO." According to the company, the reason for the buyback is providing liquidity to existing investors and attracting and retaining talented individuals through employee incentives.

Persons: GARY NG, KENNY NG, DICKIE WONG, SUMEET SINGH, Xie Yu, Yantoultra, Scott Murdoch, Anne Marie Roantree, Jamie Freed Organizations: Alibaba, HK, ASIA PACIFIC, CHINA, HONG, People's Bank of, Ant Group, KINGSTON, SINGAPORE WHO, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, People's Bank of China, SINGAPORE, COLOMBO, Hong Kong, Singapore, Sydney

☆ Top Wall Street analysts favor these stocks for the long haul
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-09 | by ( Tipranks.Com Staff | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Here are five stocks chosen by Wall Street's top analysts, according to TipRanks, a platform that ranks analysts based on their past performance. In line with his investment thesis, Setyan reaffirmed a buy rating on the stock with a price target of $123. He explained that his price target reflects a premium valuation, which is "appropriate given our expectation of accelerating market share gains within casual dining for the foreseeable future." Feinseth reaffirmed a buy rating on CCL and boosted his price target to $23 from $13. Accordingly, he reiterated a buy rating and increased the price target to $490 from $365.

Persons: Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron Scott, Wall, Goldman Sachs, Toshiya Hari, Micron's, Hari, Nick Setyan, Setyan, Ivan Feinseth, Feinseth Organizations: Micron, Micron Scott Mlyn, CNBC, Nasdaq, Cyberspace Administration, Tigress, CCL Locations: China, TipRanks, Texas, MDB

☆ The Fed has rolled out a new index for gauging the economy that could have big implications
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is changing the way it looks at "financial conditions," a move that could have important ramifications for policy ahead. The Fed has been using a series of interest rate increases to tighten financial conditions and, ultimately, to bring down inflation. Essentially, the move allows the Fed to distance itself from other financial conditions models, such as those formulated by Goldman Sachs and the Chicago Fed . By contrast, the Chicago Fed index's current reading is -0.28, implying relatively loose conditions. Capital Economics noted that the FCI-G "does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures."

Persons: they've, Krishna Guha, Jerome, Powell, Guha, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Evercore ISI, Fed, Chicago Fed, Treasury, Dow Jones, U.S, FCI

☆ Investors are 'too complacent': Deutsche Bank strategist names two ways to hide from a potential downturn
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investors have become "too complacent" in the calm before a potential storm for stock markets, according to Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer. Stock market volatility is usually indicated through the VIX index and is often considered a barometer of fear and uncertainty in the market. Downside protection for investors Uleer also highlighted a number of opportunities for investors to lock in their gains for this year. In the illustrated example above, the portfolio would suffer a maximum loss of 3.41% even if the stock market declined further, not accounting for trading costs, by mid-December. Potential upside Despite the near-term risks, the market strategist pointed to the travel and leisure sector for upside potential.

Persons: Deutsche Bank's Maximilian Uleer, It's, I'm, Uleer, CNBC's Organizations: Deutsche Bank's, Stock, PMI, Deutsche Bank, Uleer, Downside, Airlines Locations: China, Europe, Refinitiv

☆ UBS shares 9 charts that show global stocks are barreling towards a sell-off as recession fears flare
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

But UBS analysts are expecting that global equity valuations will sell off later this year. Stocks may be riding the ongoing bull rally back to all-time highs, but that doesn't mean Wall Street's fears of an economic downturn have completely dissipated. In fact, even prominent investors such as Evercore founder Roger Altman have called for a recession by the end of 2023. And according to analysts at UBS investment bank, a potential market sell-off wouldn't be solely concentrated in the technology sector. In the note, Baweja and his team also shared nine "essential" charts showing why they expect equities to sell off this year.

Persons: Roger Altman, Joe Mazzola — Charles Schwab's, —, Bhano Baweja, Baweja Organizations: UBS

☆ What the stock market is saying about when to expect a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

As the economy proved more resilient than expected, and the US has avoided recession so far, the case for a 2023 recession has been crumbling. The stock market, which entered bull market territory just a few weeks ago, has shown little sign this year that the economy could be headed for a downturn. Still, the bond market tells a different story: The New York Federal Reserve’s recession probability model calculates the probability that the US will enter a recession in the next 12 months by tracking the spread of 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. US stock market closes early at 1 p.m. Tuesday: US stock market closed for July Fourth.

Persons: Brian Moynihan, “ We’re, ”, David Grecsek, Jerome Powell, it’s, “ we’re, Russell, Outflows, Brian Mulberry, Tim Courtney, Courtney ., “, Niño, Samantha Delouya, El Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, CNN, Vanguard, JPMorgan Chase, Investors, Fed, Investment Company Institute, Zacks Investment Management, New, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Exencial Wealth, Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, PMI, Labor Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, El

☆ Student loan relief is gone for millions of Americans — here's what it means for retailers
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Melissa Repko | In Melissa-Repko | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Biden's plan would have eliminated her remaining student debt balance. KeyBanc's Thomas said the student loan payment pause was yet another pandemic tail wind for retailers. Estimates vary on how much student loan borrowers will pay each month. Kantrowitz said there is little data on how Americans used the money that they did not spend on student debt. He said the student loan changes are modest compared with the pinch that people feel from inflation or the dwindling of pandemic-strengthened savings accounts.

Persons: Brent Lewis, Lenèe Gill, Pell, Gill, KeyBanc's Thomas, Mark Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, it's, Brett House, Mario Anzuoni Organizations: Old Navy, Denver, Getty, Louisiana State University, Walmart, Nutrition, Bank of America Institute, Columbia, Maxx, TJX Cos Inc Locations: Denver , Colorado, Pasadena , California

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