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☆ Fed Official Warns Inflation Fight Has ‘Ways to Go’
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Fed governor Christopher Waller said he was nervous that consumers’ expectations of future inflation might adjust rapidly. The Federal Reserve needs to keep raising interest rates to get inflation under control, even after last week’s report that it slowed in October, a central bank official said Sunday. Markets rallied after the Labor Department reported Thursday that so-called core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, rose 0.3% from September, the smallest monthly gain in a year, and by 6.3% on a year-over-year basis, down from 6.6% in September. Investors and policy makers watch core readings closely as a reflection of broad price pressures and as a predictor of future inflation.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

☆ Fed's Waller maintains skepticism on U.S. digital currency
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 10 (Reuters) - There is currently no credible case for the United States to develop an official digital version of the dollar, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday, keeping to his long-held skeptical view amid debate at the U.S. central bank. "The case for adopting one is not yet convincing to me and many others," Waller said during an event at Queensland University of Technology in Brisbane, Australia. Fed policymakers remain divided on the need for a central bank digital currency, with Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, second in command at the Fed, among those expressing support. Regardless, the Fed has indicated it would not launch one without clear support from the White House and lawmakers. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Consumer inflation, crypto deflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Annual consumer price rises are expected to have eased back a touch last month to 8.0%, the lowest since February, with core inflation rates ticking lower to 6.5%. Falling used car prices, one aggravator of inflation indices over the past year, will be watched closely - as will the relative calm in oil prices. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said it's "entirely premature" to discuss any pivot away from the Fed's current policy course. Broader markets were steady to negative around the world, mostly in a holding pattern ahead of the inflation report. The United States and China also laid out markers this week ahead of an expected meeting between their presidents at the summit.

☆ Midterms could be a positive catalyst for stocks as investors await next big inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

There are two big hurdles for markets in the week ahead - another potentially hot consumer inflation report and the Congressional midterm elections. "100% of the time, the S & P 500 has been up 12 months after the midterm election." Midterm rallies Stocks tend to gain in the final months of midterm election years, and strategists have been expecting the market to move higher. CFRA Chief Market Strategist Sam Stovall said even when interest rates are climbing, the midterm election has been a catalyst for stocks. He examined market performance in other midterm election years when interest rates were going up.

Yields on U.S. Treasury bonds rose after the release of the data, as did bets that the Fed may raise its target policy rate higher than anticipated. DIFFICULT TO PIVOTThe job openings data "will make it very difficult for the Fed to pivot" towards a slower pace of rate hikes, as many have expected, Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons wrote. Quits are seen as a sign of labor market strength, evidence that people either have a more attractive option in front of them or are confident of finding one. Balanced against the strength of the labor market is evidence that a slowing of inflation may be in the pipeline. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jump in job openings "is another example of data 'not cooperating' with the Fed's desire to slow the pace of rate hikes," Citi analysts wrote.

☆ A year after trading scandal, Fed is again under ethics spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

At the same time, an in-house Inspector General (IG) investigation into the regional Fed trading activities still hasn't been released and it's unclear when it will be. Unresolved in that process are publicly available disclosures for top staff at regional Fed banks. Right now, only disclosures for the Fed chief, members of the Fed's Board of Governors, top central bank staff and regional bank presidents are available. Given the quasi-private nature of the 12 regional Fed banks, there's no formal mechanism to compel those institutions to release this information. The Fed faced some criticism last year for failing to identify the financial trading activity that ensnared the regional bank presidents.

☆ Tech tonic and Sunak salve
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A massive week for top technology firms worldwide pits U.S. mega cap earnings against the withering slide in China tech shares amid domestic political and economic fears. read moreBut the decimation of Chinese tech stocks (.HSTECH) this week was more worrying. read moreU.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies such as Pinduoduo (PDD.O), JD.com and Baidu Inc plunged between 12% and 25% in New York on Monday. read moreHSBC's shares fell almost 7% in London, meantime, as investors digested a sudden management change and rising bad loan charges. As investors awaited the European Central Bank's latest interest rate rise on Thursday, German business readings were above forecast for October.

☆ Fed Set to Raise Rates by 0.75 Point and Debate Size of Future Hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Nick Timiraos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Federal Reserve officials are barreling toward another interest-rate rise of 0.75 percentage point at their meeting Nov. 1-2 and are likely to debate then whether and how to signal plans to approve a smaller increase in December. “We will have a very thoughtful discussion about the pace of tightening at our next meeting,” Fed governor Christopher Waller said in a speech earlier this month.

☆ Former nominee for Fed regulation chief frets about rising market risks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Citing the recent heavy market turbulence that struck the United Kingdom, Sarah Bloom Raskin told a University of Pennsylvania conference Thursday that those overseas events were “a warning of sorts” for the United States. Raskin is currently a law professor at Duke University. She had been named to be the Fed’s point person on financial regulation last year before withdrawing. Raskin was also a Treasury official in the Obama Administration and before that, she served as Fed governor from 2010 to 2014. Asset values have been hard hit by the Fed’s actions and there are broad worries about liquidity in markets for securities like U.S. Treasury bonds.

☆ A U.S. central bank digital currency isn't necessary for dollar supremacy- Fed's Waller
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Creating a U.S. central bank digital currency is likely not important to the long-term status of the U.S. dollar, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday. In a speech during an event held by the Harvard National Security Journal, Waller said that a digital dollar would not offer material benefits over making U.S. dollar-denominated payments, especially because the introduction of a central bank digital currency, or CBDC, would introduce additional risks, such as cybersecurity threats. "I don’t think there are implications here for the role of the United States in the global economy and financial system," Waller said, suggesting instead that the debate around a digital dollar should focus on financial stability, payment system innovations and financial inclusion." Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Hannah Lang in WashingtonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Mystery Dance
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Sudden and sometimes unexplained stock rallies are often hallmarks of prolonged bear markets. U.S. stock futures have retraced a bit - but an hour is a long time in markets these days. read moreElsewhere, China's stocks surged ahead of the Communist Party Congress and amid an expected rise in domestic inflation. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Explainer: Five ways the Fed could calm frazzled markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here is a look at how the Fed might forestall market dysfunction should it threaten to emerge, listed roughly from most to least likely to be deployed. TALKING THE TALKIn recent days Fed policymakers have acknowledged some liquidity strains in U.S. financial markets - the Treasury market in particular - and the risk that raising interest rates to combat inflation could exacerbate vulnerabilities both domestically and abroad. Still, Fed policymakers would likely be cautious about taking their jawboning up a notch for fear of delivering perhaps too much calm, and undoing the very tightening they need to bring inflation under control. If taken too far, as happened the last time the Fed pursued so-called quantitative tightening in 2019, it can cause market ructions. Slowing that effort could ease strains, but it could also send a confusing signal to markets that may conclude the Fed is backing away from the inflation fight.

☆ Analysis: As markets fret, Fed officials reject idea of rising financial stability risks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Tobias Adrian, the International Monetary Fund's monetary and capital markets director,wrote on Tuesday that financial stability risks have risen "substantially." Fed officials have lifted the federal funds rate from near-zero levels in March to the current range of between 3.00% and 3.25%. Financial markets expect the Fed to raise the rate again by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next policy meeting in November. More rate rises are very likely after that, with central bankers penciling in a 4.6% federal funds rate by some point in 2023. Making financial conditions more restrictive is key to how monetary policy operates.

☆ September job gains affirm that the Fed has a long way to go in inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

But a surprising drop in the unemployment rate and another boost in worker wages sent a clear message to markets that more giant interest rate hikes are on the way. Everybody who seems to want a job is getting a job," said Ron Hetrick, senior economist at labor force data provider Lightcast. "But we've been getting into a situation where our low unemployment rate has absolutely been a significant driver of our inflation." A series of central bank rate increases has been aimed at reducing demand and thus loosening up a labor market where there are still 1.7 open jobs for every available worker. It all makes the inflation fight look ongoing, even with a slowdown in payroll growth.

Outside the Fed, however, there is a growing sense that the path to a soft landing is unlikely. Some analysts estimate the unemployment rate, which hit 3.7% in August, may need to rise as high as 7.5%. The new projections, though, will include anonymous estimates from each official for where the policy rate should be at the end of 2022 and the following three years. Reuters GraphicsThe 1.2-percentage-point difference between the two, the so-called "real" or inflation-adjusted federal funds rate, showed the Fed bowing to the need for tighter policy. But inflation eventually will have to move for the Fed to change course.

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