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But even as the story continues unfolding, analysts already view Microsoft as well positioned coming out of the latest Silicon Valley spectacle. Ives, who reiterated his outperform rating and $425 price target for Microsoft, said the OpenAI board was "kids poker table and thought they won." "We view Microsoft now even in a STRONGER position from an AI perspective with Altman and Brockman at MSFT running AI," Ives wrote to clients Monday morning. Ives' price target is higher than the consensus on Wall Street of $403, according to LSEG, implying upside of slightly more than 9%. Materne has an outperform rating on the stock and a $432 price target.
Persons: Sam Altman, , Altman, MSFT, Dan Ives, Ives, Satya Nadella, Greg Brockman, Brockman, outperforming, Oppenheimer, Timothy Horan, Bing, Horan, ISI's Kirk Materne, Materne, Michael Bloom Organizations: Microsoft, Nasdaq Locations: OpenAI, Redmond, Wash
Chinese smartphone companies like Huawei are rebounding in their home market, giving a boost to domestic suppliers — and increasing the pressure on Apple . Huawei smartphone sales surged by 83% in October from a year ago, Counterpoint Research said in a note Tuesday. Honor, a Huawei spin-off, saw sales climb by 10%, while Xiaomi smartphone sales rose by 33%, the report said. The report did not break out Apple sales, only saying a broad category of "others" saw October smartphone sales drop by 12% from a year ago. For context, Shanghai-based CINNO Research expects a 2% decline in Apple iPhone sales in China this year to 45.5 million units.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Raymond James, Biden, Nomura, Lihexing, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Huawei, Apple, D.C, Telecommunications, 5G, Research, Guangdong Topstar Technology, Xiaomi, Industrial Locations: China, Washington, U.S, Shenzhen, EVs, Shanghai, Guangdong, Topstar
Based on the bank's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey, strategist Michael Hartnett created a list of "contrarian" outcomes and hedging opportunities. As of now, high-quality assets are expected to outperform in 2024, with only 6% of fund managers predicting otherwise, said Hartnett. Close to 90% of surveyed fund managers see elevated geopolitical risks in the coming year. For a contrarian outcome, Harnett says to trade as if oil prices will move lower still by shorting crude. Only 6% of fund managers are predicting inflation moves higher next year, according to BofA.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: of America, Global Fund, Survey, Bank of America's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Securities
There are some stocks worth shorting right now, according to Wolfe Research. It has been a solid year for stocks, with the S & P 500 up more than 17% year to date. To find these stocks, the firm released a list of names that appeared the most times across 16 short ideas screens. CNBC Pro compiled the stocks whose names appeared on at least five of the screens: Tesla was the most frequent name, popping up in seven of the screens. Rivian , another electric vehicle stock, appeared in five of the screens.
Persons: Wolfe, Tesla, FactSet, LSEG, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wolfe Research, CNBC Pro, Tesla, Walgreens, Dow Jones Industrial Locations: EVs
Morgan Stanley has a price target of 22 euros a share. The investment bank has an "underperform" rating – equivalent to "sell" at other banks – on the stock with a price target of 16 euros a share. Deutsche Bank has a "buy" rating on Siemens stock with a 185 euros 12-month price target, giving it a 26% upside from the current share price. They expect the results will be "well received" and see Siemens stock as "the most mispriced largecap equity in our coverage." Berenberg's Philip Buller and Philip Modu have a price target of 170 euros a share, which is 16% above the current share price.
Persons: HelloFresh, , Jefferies Jefferies, Jefferies, Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley, Luke Holbrook, Morgan Stanley, Bernstein, William Woods, Supriya Subramanian, Berenberg, Berenberg's Philip Buller, Philip Modu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Siemens, Wall Street Bank, Deutsche Bank, UBS UBS Locations: Arizona, Swiss
Nvidia earnings will be in focus in the Thanksgiving-shortened week ahead, as investors consider the sustainability of the November rally heading into year-end. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD The chip giant's results will come amid a broad rally for equities this month. The S & P 500 has climbed more than 7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has advanced more than 9%. That stands in marked contrast to the S & P 500, which trades at a multiple of 22. Hopes for a dovish Fed Wall Street is also heading into next week after absorbing some positive news.
Persons: Timothy Arcuri, China —, Piper Sandler, Harsh Kumar, Quincy Krosby, Bill Baruch, CNBC's, That's, Bonds, Giuseppe Sette, Dow, Jeff Hirsch, , Michael Bloom Organizations: Nvidia, UBS, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Microsoft, LPL, Dow, Blue, Investors, Chicago Fed, HP Inc, Autodesk, Devices, Lowe's, Deere, P, PMI, P Global PMI Locations: FactSet, China, Treasurys, Lombard, Michigan
Here are Goldman's top tech stock picks into year-end
  + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Goldman Sachs is naming a list of stock picks – including some notable tech behemoths – that could strike the perfect balance of risk and reward as the year winds down. The stock is rated buy, and Goldman has a 12-month price target of $190. Goldman's 12-month price target of $59 implies upside of nearly 10% from Wednesday's close. UBER YTD line Uber shares in 2023 Finally, Google-parent company Alphabet stock has climbed roughly 54% from the start of the year. Goldman's $384 price target suggests upside of 15% from Wednesday's close.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Eric Sheridan, Sheridan, Goldman, Sheridan's, Meta, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Tech, Nasdaq, Web Services, Google Locations: Wednesday's
Treasury yields have retreated, and that's good news for one kind of income asset – preferred securities, according to UBS. US10Y YTD line U.S. 10-year Treasury yield in 2023 This month has offered some relief as the 10-year Treasury yield slipped back below 4.5%. "Indeed, a dramatic rate pullback in the early days of November has already sparked a sharp rebound in preferreds," Sileo said. "Callable in July 2028, this fixed-for-life perpetual pays a high 7.375% fixed coupon and offers an attractive [yield to call/current yield]." Investors can receive an attractive yield on a high-quality crossover credit, recently upgraded by S & P following the acquisition by Brookfield [Infrastructure]."
Persons: preferreds, Frank Sileo, US10Y, Sileo, Callable, Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Americas, Treasury, Moody's Investors Service, Allstate, Triton International, Triton, Brookfield Locations: preferreds, Infrastructure
Chinese stocks too have done poorly. 'High confidence in the tradable value' While the Chinese economy "is not very strong," Wong has "high confidence in the tradable value," of Chinese stocks. Stocks to play Goldman is overweight on several sectors including online retail, media/entertainment, tech hardware, health care equipment and services and food & beverage. Other stocks the investment bank sees outperforming "as the China growth story evolves" include internet services provider NetEase , technology hardware manufacturer Xiaomi , and manufacturing conglomerate BYD . China-focused ETFs Elsewhere, Saxo's Wong has his eye on the new infrastructure (such as 5G technology), industrial technology and agricultural technology themes.
Persons: Redmond Wong, Wong, Goldman Sachs, Stocks, Goldman, Saxo's Wong, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Clement Tan Organizations: Shenzhen Component, Saxo, CNBC, National Bureau of Statistics, Tech, Baidu, Galaxy Entertainment, Mining, China Resources Beer, Miniso, Hong Kong Exchange, CSI Agriculture, CSI 5G Communications, CSI Technology, Enterprises Locations: Shenzhen, China, Taiwan, India, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico
The S & P 500 is up more than 7% in November, but JPMorgan wrote to clients this week that the rebound is just a head fake. The biggest bank in the country thinks stocks are expensive and consumer spending is set to slow. Rather, "a significant part of this move was technical in nature, driven by momentum strategies and short covering." The hurdles for the stock market are manifold, according to JPMorgan. Instead, JPMorgan recommends a defensive posture in its model portfolio, underweighting stocks and bonds and overweighting cash and commodities.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: JPMorgan
Rising commodity prices, increased regulation and a growing recognition of sustainability benefits are set to be "key catalysts" of the circular economy, Goldman Sachs said, naming its "conviction list" stocks to play the theme. The circular economy is a system that aims to keep materials and resources in use for as long as possible, with a focus on reuse, rather than dispose. Conviction list stocks The bank named a number of "key stocks exposed to the theme," including Dassault Systemes and SMC Corporation . Both are on the bank's "conviction list" of top buy-rated stocks. Other global stocks on Goldman's list of picks set to benefit from the circular economy include Japanese electronics giant Hitachi , Dutch conglomerate Philips and U.S. waste management company Republic Services , with all three also on the bank's conviction list.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: McKinsey, Accenture, United Nations Environment Program, Dassault Systemes, SMC Corporation, Dassault Systems, Hitachi, Philips, Republic Services
The MSCI Asia ex Japan Index plunged from its January high, losing around 12% since then. Those keen on investing in Asia in the face of such uncertainty can consider Morgan Stanley's selection of Asian stocks it calls "alpha" opportunities for November. Rising prices and falling inventories along with supply cuts and improving demand are positive for margin recovery," the bank said. The company had beaten expectations with significant outperformance in gas marketing and lower-than-expected losses in petrochemicals. These are 10 stocks from the full list of Morgan Stanley's top overweight-rated stocks for November.
Persons: Morgan, Gail, Morgan Stanley's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Shenzhen Component, Alpha, Samsung Electronics Locations: Asia, Japan, Shenzhen, Korean
Morgan Stanley has revealed a bullish call on Japanese stocks for 2024. China and emerging markets However, Morgan Stanley remains cautious on other Asian markets going into the first half of 2024. The bank's strategists lowered their target for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to 1,000, implying a modest 4% upside from current levels. They cited slowing global growth, higher interest rates, and currency weakness versus the U.S. dollar as headwinds for emerging markets. Morgan Stanley expects strong nominal GDP growth above 11% annually in 2024 and 2025 thanks to "young demographic and geopolitical alignment," which will drive earnings higher.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jonathan F, Garner, Tom Stevenson, Morgan, CNBC's Michael Bloom, Penny Chen Organizations: U.S ., Amundi, Fidelity International, CNBC Pro, U.S Locations: Amundi Japan, Japan, China, India
Now, the window is opening on orders for the components that will go into the construction, he added. One of those exchange-traded funds is TCW Transform Supply Chain ETF (SUPP), a play on the reshoring theme. "[Yet] in just [the past] six months, we've added about $300 billion of orders for mega projects," he added. "The United States is experiencing a once-in-a-generation onshoring boom," the company said during its Oct. 27 conference call. Another top holding is Martin Marietta Materials , which produces the aggregates used for construction projects.
Persons: Chris Snyder, Eli Horton, we've, there's, Horton, Snyder, Eaton, Craig Arnold, Arnold, Martin Marietta, Hortons, we're, Michael Bloom, Nick Wells Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, hasn't, Steel, Trane Technologies, Waste Management, Martin, Martin Marietta Materials Locations: U.S, United States
Morgan Stanley thinks Meta Platforms is the "cleanest" generative artificial intelligence play in 2024 as the bank focuses on return on invested capital (ROIC) in its AI stock coverage into next year. Analysts led by Brian Nowak assembled a list of potential AI stock winners for 2024, extending from large caps down to smaller companies that offer similarly bullish outlooks. "AI investments, testing and early capabilities continue to grow across the sector," Morgan Stanley wrote. Among smaller stocks, Uber Technologies was also recommended by Morgan Stanley, which has an overweight rating on the ride-sharing provider. "Uber's scale and liquidity gives drivers higher earnings power and riders lower wait times," Morgan Stanley wrote.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak, Nowak, Monday's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Scott Schnipper Organizations: Wall, Nvidia, Microsoft, Facebook, Technologies
A pullback for stocks could be on the horizon after a unique technical signal was flashed, BTIG said. The Russell 2000 ended last week down 3.2%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 2.9%. BTIG chief market technician Jonathan Krinsky pointed out there have been just seven other occasions since 1985 that such a divergence has been seen. Eight weeks following this signal flashing, the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 have lost 4.1% and 6.7%, respectively, on a median basis. To be sure, it was last seen on May 2 — and the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 were up 13.9% and 8.6%, respectively, eight weeks after.
Persons: BTIG, Russell, Jonathan Krinsky, Krinsky, , — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, American Association of, Bears, Wall
Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson sees an eventual earnings recovery for U.S. equities in 2024 — but he sees the S & P 500 rising only to 4,500 over the next 12 months. Wilson, the firm's chief U.S. equity strategist, noted that while the S & P 500 has gained about 15% year to date, the narrow rally has been skewed to the Magnificent Seven. This under-the-surface earnings weakness is forecast to continue into early 2024 before a recovery, he said in a Monday note. "Near-term uncertainty should give way to an earnings recovery as we progress through next year," Wilson said. Wilson has one of the most bearish targets among Wall Street peers in 2023, predicting the broad market index would end the year at 3,900, according to CNBC Pro's Market Strategist Survey .
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Wilson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC Pro's, Survey
Investors should take a long position on key commodities with substantial returns expected in 2024, according to Goldman Sachs. OPEC is also expected to keep its crude production cuts in place through most of 2024, according to Goldman. Gold and energy also are potential hedges against supply shocks from geopolitical risks and other developments, according to Goldman. The investment bank views an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz as unlikely, but if such an event did occur the rally would sizable and immediate. It is also gold's time to shine, the investment bank said, with prices rising 5% since the Israel-Hamas war started.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Brent, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Goldman, Federal Reserve Locations: Hormuz, Israel
Wegovy contains semaglutide, the same active ingredient in Novo's type 2 diabetes drug Ozempic. A rising tide for Eli Lilly? Though the study was specifically about Wegovy, Wall Street sees a positive readthrough for similar medications from other providers, particularly Eli Lilly 's Zepbound. Similarly, UBS analyst Trung Huynh called the weekend data a "best-case" scenario for Eli Lilly. And the positive outcomes for both in the Wegovy study can be viewed as encouraging for how Zepbound should perform, the analyst added.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Mark Purcell, Richard Vosser, Peter Verdult, Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly's, Lilly, Andrew Baum, Trung Huynh, That's, it's, Zepbound, Huynh, Citi's Baum, James Shin isn't, Michael Bloom, Christina Cheddar Berk, Angelica Peebles Organizations: Novo Nordisk, American Heart Association, cardiologists, JPMorgan, Citi, ., UBS, North American, Tandem Diabetes Care, Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank says Archer Aviation's strong cash balance makes the stock a top pick among electric vertical take-off and landing companies (eVTOL). The bank reiterated a top pick recommendation on Archer in a Monday note and maintained a $12 per share price target. Its eVTOL vehicles are meant for city taxi transport service, and Archer forecasts commercial vehicles will begin flying in 2025. "Overall, Archer remains our favorite name in the group and we maintain our $12 price target." Yu added that Archer's cash balance remains strong and said capital will remain robust into the near future.
Persons: Archer, Edison Yu, Joby, Yu, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Archer Aviation, Midnight, US Air Force Locations: Europe
Investors looking for dividend plays may want to check out China-based wealth management firm Noah , according to UBS. Noah announced its first dividend payout plan in 2022, and its payout ratio — or the proportion of the company's net income paid out to shareholders as dividends — was equivalent to 17.5%, she said. However, there are likely more capital market initiatives to increase returns to shareholders, Li pointed out. "We expect the company to announce more initiatives to increase market liquidity and shareholder return. We see upside risk to a potentially increased dividend payout ratio for 2023E," she wrote.
Persons: Noah, Helen Li, , Li, NOAH YTD, We're, Qing Pan, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, The, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group Locations: China, U.S
Investors will get a glimpse this week on the state of the consumer with a slew retail companies slated to report earnings. Tuesday Home Depot is set to report earnings before the open, followed by a call at 9 a.m. What history shows: Bespoke data shows Target beats earnings expectations 65% of the time. What to watch: Walmart is riding high, with the stock reaching an all-time high last week on bets of a strong holiday season for the retail giant. What history shows: Walmart was higher in four of the last five earnings days, Bespoke data shows.
Persons: Seth Sigman, Brian Cornell, Michael Lasser, PANW, Hamza Fodderwala, Morgan Stanley, billings, WMT, Oppenheimer, Rupesh, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Walmart, Home Depot, CNBC, Tuesday, LSEG, Depot, Federal Reserve, Barclays, Investment, UBS, Palo Alto Networks, Management
Nomura has a price target of 315 yuan — for an upside of nearly 67% from Friday's close. Even after trimming their price target on the buy-rated stock, the analysts have a price target of 266 yuan — just over 40% upside from Friday's close. They have a price target of 284 yuan, or 50% upside from Friday's close. More products coming to market The company already has just over a third of the global EV battery market, with more products on the way, according to Counterpoint Research. Li Auto, which reported record deliveries in October that beat out Tesla , is launching its first purely battery-powered vehicle in December — with a new CATL battery called Qilin.
Persons: That's, Nomura, CATL, FactSet, Peter Richardson, Li Auto, Tesla, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Amperex Technology, BMW, Tesla, Union, HSBC, Revenue, VW, Mercedes, Benz, EV, Jefferies, Research, Chery, UBS Locations: Shenzhen, Friday's, EU, Thuringia, Hungary, , Jiangxi
The firm upgraded shares of the late-stage biotech to buy from hold, lifting its price target to $26 from $18. Shares of Vera Therapeutics have fallen 37.8% this year, but analyst Farzin Haque believes the stock's recent pullback now means an attractive entry point for investors. VERA YTD mountain VERA YTD chart "W/ shares down –30% (vs XBI –13%) since Sept 21 TVTX data release, we have become more optimistic about atacicept (dual BAFF/APRIL) clin profile," Haque wrote. Atacicept, which Vera took over from Merck, is a drug that treats certain autoimmune diseases. "W/ recent increasing focus on eGFR, VERA's OLE data from ph.II for longer-term eGFR data (expected 1Q24) has now become an important catalyst for the stock," Haque said.
Persons: Vera, Jefferies, Vera Therapeutics, Farzin Haque, VERA YTD, VERA, Haque, Lupus nephritis, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Vera, Merck Locations: ph.II
One investor's portfolio loser could be another's winning stock as 2023 draws to a close, according to Bank of America. Buy rated and cheap Bank of America screened for buy-rated stocks that fell at least 10% in 2023 through the end of October that were also overweight by long-only funds as of September. However, Bank of America still rates both names as buys – and others on Wall Street spot potential. Retailer Target is another name that made the cut, garnering a buy rating from Bank of America. Other stocks in Bank of America's list include agriculture play Mosaic , life insurer MetLife , defense giant Northrop Grumman , as well as gas and electric utility CenterPoint Energy .
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Dexcom, Insulet, , Piper Sandler's Matt O'Brien, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Internal Revenue, Bank of, Target, MetLife, Northrop, CenterPoint Energy Locations: Bank of America, Bank
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