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The American Dream is under siege
  + stars: | 2024-03-02 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +15 min
Parents of young children are making difficult choices to afford child care — or they’re opting to evade it by dropping out of the workforce altogether. Even as the inflation rate has cooled across the US economy, child care remains a sore spot for many families. The weekly price of day care for a toddler surged 9% in 2023, according to Care.com, a marketplace for child care. Of course, Allison is hardly alone in feeling like the American Dream has been more difficult — and expensive — to attain than imagined. “The American dream is being taken away from the younger generation by the housing affordability challenges,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.
Persons: Hana Husković, Price, Hana, Michelle, they'll, ” Hana, , It’s, they’ll, ’ Allison Powell, Liam Kelly, ” Allison, Allison Powell, Corinne ., , Allison, I’ll, homebuyers, Lotfi Karoui, Goldman Sachs, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Priscilla Almodovar, Fannie Mae, ” Almodovar, that’s, Almodovar, they’d, Homebuilding, Mark Zandi, Biden, ” Lael Brainard, Brainard, ” Brainard, , Rachael Gambino, Garrett Mazzeo, Rachael, Deborah Brunswick, John General, ” Rachael, won’t, they’ve, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wall, CNN, Federal, Intercontinental Exchange, ICE, Bloomberg, Getty, Rust Belt, National Association of Realtors, North, NAR, That’s, Baby Boomers, Homeowners, Federal Reserve, Moody’s Analytics, White, National Economic Council, American, Target, Starbucks, Facebook Locations: New York, United States, Atlanta, Peachtree Corners , Georgia, Decatur, Decatur , Georgia, Carolina, Yugoslavia, Italy, Mexico, Oakland , California, Livermore, San Francisco, California, Los Angeles, San Diego, Francisco, Miami, Honolulu, Rust, Des Moines , Iowa, Dayton , Ohio, Cleveland , Ohio, Scranton , Pennsylvania, Los Angeles , California, North America, America, States, Lansdale , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia
Next week, the first full trading week of March, macroeconomic concerns will take center stage for investors. Next week, the Fed chief is largely anticipated to stick to the same talking points in testifying before Congress. In fact, the February jobs report, due out next Friday, is expected to show a moderation in payroll gains. Hourly Earnings preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Average Workweek preliminary (February) 8:30 a.m. Manufacturing Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Private Nonfarm Payrolls (February) 8:30 a.m. Unemployment Rate (February) — CNBC's Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox and Yun Li contributed to this report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Shannon Saccocia, Kim Forrest, Webull, Michael Hartnett, CNBC's Yun Li, Melissa Brown, Brown, Wealth's Saccocia, Saccocia, Nonfarm Payrolls, , Michael Bloom, Jeff Cox, Yun Li Organizations: Federal, Fed, Capitol, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, FactSet, Barclays, Bokeh Capital Partners, Labor Department, Bitcoin, BofA Global Research, Apple, Nvidia, Ross Stores, Costco Wholesale, Kroger, . Semiconductor, Broadcom, PMI, PMI Services, Services PMI, Ross, Target, ADP, Labor, Consumer Credit Locations: U.S, REITs, Japan
Hewlett Packard Enterprise -- The technology stock rose almost 2% after fiscal first quarter earnings of 3 cents per share topped analysts' expectations, according to LSEG. Daimler Truck -- Shares of the commercial vehicle manufacturer soared more than 18% after reporting a record-high, full-year profit, and authorized a 2 billion euro ($2.16 billion) share buyback. Dell Technologies - Shares soared more than 25% after the laptop maker posted fourth-quarter results that beat analysts' estimates amid strong demand for its artificial intelligence servers. Advanced Micro Devices , Marvell Technology , Micron Technology -- AMD added 4% in midday trading as investors continue to signal excitement over stocks tied to implementing artificial intelligence. Shares of Micron Technology and Marvell Technology soared more 5% and 7%, respectively.
Persons: AeroSystems, Hewlett Packard, Root, Billings, , Alex Harring, Yun Li, Michelle Fox, Samantha Subin Organizations: Boeing, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Daimler, . New York Community Bancorp, Jefferies, Dell Technologies, Dell, Devices, Marvell Technology, Micron Technology, Facebook, Nasdaq Locations: .
The Federal Reserve's rate-cut signal in December triggered a furious rally to record highs, unleashing animal spirits that are fueling similar speculative activities from the depths of the pandemic. "The animal spirits are reviving," Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at BofA Global Research, said in a phone interview. "Animal spirits, they don't necessarily start with the biggest animals in the jungle," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, said by phone. To be sure, others believe the market rally has been justified by the enthusiasm for artificial intelligence, and the contribution it's likely to make to future corporate profits. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio said the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble based on his criteria.
Persons: Bitcoin, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Cryptocurrency, Scott Rubner, Goldman Sachs, Quincy Krosby, Ray Dalio Organizations: BofA Global Research, Nasdaq, GameStop, Palo Alto Networks, Research, LPL Locations: Nigeria, Argentina, Snowflake, YOLO, . U.S, U.S
Stock futures were little changed in overnight trading Thursday after the market wrapped up its fourth winning month and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite reached its first closing record since November 2021. S&P 500 futures were flat and Nasdaq 100 futures inched 0.1% lower. Major averages ended another positive month as the rally driven by an artificial intelligence boom and hopes for rate cuts chugged along. The S&P 500 climbed 5.2%, while the Dow added 2.2% for its first four-month winning streak since May 2021. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 is tracking for a roughly 0.2% advance, while the Nasdaq is up 0.6%.
Persons: We're, Adam Crisafulli, Thursday's, Bitcoin, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, New, New York Community Bancorp, Dow, Vital, Federal Locations: New York
Ray Dalio says the U.S. stock market 'doesn't look very bubbly'
  + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes that the U.S. stock market is not in a speculative bubble. "When I look at the U.S. stock market using these criteria, it — and even some of the parts that have rallied the most and gotten media attention — doesn't look very bubbly," he said in a new LinkedIn post published Thursday. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 is wrapping up its fourth winning month after hitting a new all-time high on the back of continued enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence. Dalio said the valuation of the Mag 7 names are slightly expensive but not excessively so. Nvidia's two-year forward price-to-earnings ratio is around 37 today, while Cisco's multiple hit 100 at the height of the internet bubble, Dalio noted.
Persons: Ray Dalio, Dalio Organizations: Bridgewater, LinkedIn, Cisco
It posted earnings of 41 cents per share, excluding items, on revenue of $3 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet had called for earnings of 34 cents per share on $2.91 billion in revenue. C3.ai — The artificial intelligence software stock advanced more than 24% after C3.ai posted a narrower-than-expected adjusted loss per share of 13 cents. Pure Storage — Shares jumped more than 22% after the data storage company posted stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and upbeat first-quarter guidance. However, fourth-quarter revenue of $1.1 billion did top LSEG estimates of $1.05 billion.
Persons: FactSet, Morgan Stanley, Chemours, , Birkenstock, Snowflake, Frank Slootman, LSEG, Duolingo, Alex Harring, Yun Li, Michelle Fox Theobald Organizations: Beverage, RBC, Bank of America Securities, Bank of America, Paramount, AMC Entertainment
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates climbed for the fourth week in a row, inching closer to 7% just as peak homebuying season gets underway. Since reaching a 20-year high of 7.79% in October, mortgage rates have been slowly falling. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. Last week, mortgage applications dropped 5.6% from the week before, according to the MBA. Higher home prices pushed loan amounts higher in January, offsetting what was a monthly decline in mortgage rates, said Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president for housing economics.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit, Mike Fratantoni, Edward Seiler, MBA’s, Lawrence Yun Organizations: DC CNN —, , Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington
Thanks to high mortgage rates, mortgage refinance rates, and even higher home prices, the mood among hopeful homebuyers has been fairly bleak. Is there a chance the housing market will crash anytime soon? Though a large number of Americans believe the housing market is at risk of crashing, the economists who study housing market conditions overwhelmingly do not expect a crash in 2024 or beyond. The US is currently between 2.3 million and 6.5 million units short of a healthy housing supply, according to Realtor.com. What a housing market crash would mean for homebuyersAnything is possible, and nobody has a crystal ball to see for certain what will happen in the housing market in the coming months and years.
Persons: , homebuyers, Fannie Mae's, Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: Service, Housing Survey, National Association of Realtors, Housing Locations: Chevron
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway is firing on all cylinders with a $1 trillion market value in sight, according to UBS. Analyst Brian Meredith hiked his 12-month price target on the Berkshire Class A shares to $715,000 from $655,000, and Class B shares to $477 from $435. BRK.A 1Y mountain Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire on Saturday reported a 28% jump in operating earnings in the fourth quarter due to huge gains in its insurance business. Meanwhile, Berkshire's reinsurance and primary insurance operations continued to look solid and benefit from the current market environment, UBS said. The conglomerate recently touched consecutive record highs, trading above $647,000 for Class A shares at its peak and boasting a market value above $900 billion.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, Brian Meredith, Meredith, BRK, Geico Organizations: UBS, Berkshire Class, Insurance, Berkshire Hathaway Berkshire, BNSF Locations: Omaha, Berkshire
The New York-based online brokerage will combine with SK Growth Opportunities Corporation in the second half of the year, pending regulatory and shareholder approvals. Webull is planning to go public through merging with a special purpose acquisition company in a deal that values the digital investing platform at $7.3 billion. Special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, raise capital in an initial public offering and use the cash to merge with a private company and take it public, usually within two years. Webull launched its trading platform in the U.S. in 2018 and enjoyed a huge boost during the Covid-19 pandemic as many Americans became first-time traders during lockdowns. The firm had $370 billion in equity notional volumes and 430 million options contracts traded through its platform in 2023.
Persons: Robinhood, Anthony Organizations: SK Growth, Corporation, Nasdaq, Webull, CNBC, CNBC PRO Locations: York, U.S
Coldplay, Ed Sheeran, and now Taylor Swift. Singapore is eyeing concert economics as its new growth driver, which is set to add hundreds of millions of dollars in tourism receipts. Fans bought 200,000 tickets as the shows sold out within hours, breaking the city-state's record for the most tickets sold by an artist in a single day. And starting this weekend, Singapore will host American popstar Taylor Swift, whose Eras Tour in the U.S. last year was estimated to generate around $4.6 billion in consumer spending. "Taylor Swift is also widely expected to generate a sizable economic boost, given her past record," Liu added.
Persons: Coldplay, Ed Sheeran, Taylor Swift, Yun Liu, Agoda, popstar Taylor Swift, Liu Organizations: Singapore's, Coldplay's Music Locations: Singapore, ASEAN, British, Asia, Pacific, Malaysia, Indonesia, U.S
Norwegian Cruise Line — The cruise ship operator soared 18% on strong forward guidance. Unity expects adjusted EBITDA to range between $45 million and $50 million, versus the $113 million expected by analysts polled by FactSet. Viking Therapeutics — The clinical-stage biotech soared more than 90% after fulfilling primary and secondary endpoints in its Phase 2 GLP-1 study. Earnings came in at $1.57 per share, beating expectations of $1.47 per share, according to LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv. Revenue of $1.92 billion matched analysts' expectations.
Persons: Viking, LSEG, Cava, Wells, Duolingo, CarGurus, — AutoZone, Microstrategy, , Sarah Min, Michelle Fox, Alex Harring, Jesse Pound, Yun Li Organizations: Cruise, Unity Software, FactSet, Therapeutics, Hess Corporation, Chevron, Exxon Mobil, China's, Offshore Oil Corp, Hess, Bank of America Securities, Seaport Research Partners, CleanSpark Locations: Cava
Nvidia is still under-owned by portfolio managers even after the chipmaker's jaw-dropping advance, setting the stage for a continued rally powered by the "fear of missing out." Therefore, if investors start buying more Nvidia shares to merely catch up to the benchmark level, Nvidia could see added demand. Nvidia was the best-performing stock in the S & P 500 all of last year, boosted by enthusiasm surrounding AI. NVDA 1Y mountain Nvidia To be sure, portfolio managers overseeing large-cap equity funds have a tendency to underweight the biggest stocks, UBS strategists said. Nvidia' s fourth quarter revenue soared 265% year-over-year , and it topped analysts' highest estimates on both the top- and bottom lines.
Organizations: Nvidia, UBS
Warren Buffett shared a heartfelt tribute to the late Charlie Munger, calling his business partner of 60 years the architect of today's Berkshire Hathaway . "In reality, Charlie was the 'architect' of the present Berkshire, and I acted as the 'general contractor' to carry out the day-by-day construction of his vision," Buffett wrote. In a way his relationship with me was part older brother, part loving father." With much back-sliding I subsequently followed his instructions," Buffett wrote in the letter. Though I have long been in charge of the construction crew; Charlie should forever be credited with being the architect," Buffett said.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie, Buffett, Munger, Warren, Ben Graham, Benjamin Graham, jerked Organizations: Oracle, Columbia University, BNSF Railway Locations: Berkshire, Omaha, Dairy
Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at press conference during the Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders Meeting in Omaha, Nebraska, April 30, 2022. Berkshire Hathaway 's Warren Buffett said his sprawling conglomerate may only slightly outperform the average American company due to its sheer size and the lack of buying opportunities that could make an impact. The 93-year-old Buffett said Berkshire's group of diversified, quality businesses should provide "slightly better" performance than the average U.S. company, but anything more than that is unlikely. 'With our present mix of businesses, Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital," Buffett said. "Anything beyond 'slightly better,' though, is wishful thinking."
Persons: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple —, Buffett, Organizations: Berkshire, BNSF Railway, Apple, Oracle, Occidental Petroleum, Berkshire ., Mitsubishi, Mitsui, Sumitomo Locations: Omaha , Nebraska, Omaha, Dairy, Berkshire, Alleghany, U.S
Warren Buffett is about to release his must-read annual letter where he's expected to pay a heartwarming tribute to the late Charlie Munger. The 93-year-old chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway is slated to release his annual shareholder letter Saturday at 8:00 a.m. "Succession is a top-of-mind issue for many Berkshire investors," Cathy Seifert, Berkshire analyst at CFRA Research, said in a note. Buffett's investment lieutenants, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler, have taken on more responsibilities at Berkshire, independently overseeing about $15 billion each. The run up in Berkshire shares may have curbed the amount of buyback activity in the fourth quarter.
Persons: Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway, Steve Check, Munger, Buffett, Munger's, it's, Greg Abel, Cathy Seifert, Todd Combs, Ted Weschler, Todd, Ted Organizations: Check Capital Management, Berkshire, CFRA Research, Investors, Berkshire Hathaway, BNSF Railway Locations: Berkshire, Berkshire Hathaway The Omaha, Dairy
New York CNN —Retail investors are optimistic about the stock market again despite a backdrop of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, which measures seven barometers of market sentiment, closed at an “extreme greed” reading on Thursday. Unsurprisingly, investors are largely bullish on artificial intelligence-related stocks over the next three months, according to the Schwab survey. The job market has also stayed remarkably strong even as interest rates hover around a 23-year high, helping keep recession worries at bay. About 48% of traders believe the US will likely avoid a recession this year, up from 23% last quarter, according to the Schwab survey.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Schwab, , James Kostulias, stoking, Anna Bahney, , Lawrence Yun, Read, Henri Nestlé, Wegovy, Hanna Ziady, Mark Schneider, ” Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Retail, , Dow Jones, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal, National Association of Realtors, NAR Locations: New York, United Kingdom, Japan, Washington, Swiss
As the rally continues, it's wise to avoid overcrowded trades among hedge funds as herd mentality often leads to trouble in the stock market, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors in overcrowded trades could run the risk of getting caught in a losing bet when hedge funds, especially systematic traders, form a herd-like stampede to exit the same trades. Morgan Stanley found that hedge funds were most overweight in the consumer discretionary, industrials, and health-care sectors last quarter. Even though they have been extremely popular, these stocks tend to have outsized share counts that make hedge funds' ownership less significant. Avis Budget Group was the most over-owned stock by hedge funds at the end of 2023 with half of its outstanding float shares owned by the cohort, according to Morgan Stanley.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Russell, Howard Hughes, Janus Henderson, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Avis Budget Group, Liberty Media, Liberty Media , New York Times Locations: Wendy's, Liberty Media ,
Nvidia earned $5.16 per share on an adjusted basis and $22.1 billion in revenue, higher than the $4.64 per share and $20.62 billion analysts polled by LSEG had expected. Moderna — Shares popped 12% after the vaccine maker beat fourth-quarter revenue expectations , lifted by deferred revenue and cost cuts. Moderna's top line came out to be $2.81 billion, while analysts polled by LSEG had expected $2.50 billion. Quanta Services — The infrastructure stock popped nearly 10% following a fourth-quarter earnings beat. Keurig Dr Pepper reported $3.87 billion in in fourth quarter revenue, below the $3.92 billion expected by analysts, according to FactSet.
Persons: LSEG, Cantor Fitzgerald, Etsy, Rivian, Synopsys, Morgan Stanley, Coty —, TD Cowen, FactSet, Keurig Dr Pepper, Dr Pepper, — CNBC's Michelle Fox, Alexander Harring, Yun Li, Jesse Pound, Pia Singh, Samantha Subin Organizations: Nvidia, Moderna, LSEG, Coty, Scotiabank, Mosaic
Sales of previously owned homes rose 3.1% in January to 4 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, according to the National Association of Realtors. The count is based on closings, so the contracts were likely signed in November and December, when mortgage interest rates backed off their October high of 8%. "Listings were modestly higher, and home buyers are taking advantage of lower mortgage rates compared to late last year." While lower mortgage rates helped boost January sales, today's higher rates are already once again weighing on the market. Correction: The 32% all-cash share of January 2024 home sales was up from 29% in January 2023.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Yun, It's Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News, NAR, Redfin
January is usually a sleepier month for home sales, but prices reached a record high for the month. First time homebuyers face steep challengesIn January the share of first-time home buyers dropped to 28%, falling under a healthy market share of 30%. In addition to rising mortgage rates, elevated prices and still stubbornly low inventory levels, first-time homebuyers are facing steep competition from other buyers. Homeowners with ultra low rates are unwilling to sell and buy a home during a time of higher prevailing market rates. And while a drop of rates in December and January boosted sales, rising rates may cool buyer’s interest even as the spring selling season is underway.
Persons: , , Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: DC CNN —, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Locations: Washington, Boston, Carolinas
S&P 500 futures edged up in overnight trading Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Nvidia shares as the chip giant posted record revenue and issued upbeat guidance. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1%. Nvidia shares popped more than 8% in after-hours trading after the chip company said total revenue rose a whopping 265% from a year ago, driven by its booming artificial intelligence business. AI enthusiasm has powered the jaw-dropping rally in Nvidia, along with other Big Tech names, over the past year. "Investors should know that the path of disinflation will likely be choppy, creating volatility in the rates market," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
Persons: David Russell, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Big Tech, Bears, Federal, LPL, Moderna, Builders, Live, Booking Holdings, Intuit Locations: U.S
Hedge funds' most-loved stocks have nearly doubled the S & P 500 's return this year due to the continuous strength in Big Tech, according to Goldman Sachs. It then compiled a basket of the most popular long positions, dubbed Goldman's Hedge Fund VIP basket, comprising 50 stocks that most frequently appear among the largest 10 holdings of hedge funds. The group of hedge funds' favorite stocks has gained 9% this year through Feb. 14, outperforming the S & P 500's 5% return during the same period. Amazon and Microsoft , which climbed 10% and 6% this year, respectively, were the two most popular stocks among fundamental hedge funds as of the end of 2023. Meta Platforms , Alphabet and Nvidia were also well-loved among hedge funds last quarter.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Meta Organizations: Big, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, Natural Resources, Visa Locations: Big Tech
Lucid Group — Shares slid nearly 7% in extended trading after the electric vehicle company posted a revenue miss as losses widened. Etsy — The online marketplace saw shares drop 6% in extended trading after the company posted an earnings miss. Etsy posted earnings per share of 62 cents, compared to an LSEG estimate of 78 cents. In the fourth quarter, Rivian lost $1.36 per share, 4 cents lower than the per share estimate from LSEG. Synopsys' earnings came in at $3.56 per share, excluding items, higher than an LSEG estimate of $3.43 per share.
Persons: Etsy, Rivian, Synopsys Organizations: Nvidia, Rivian, Wall
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