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REUTERS/Leah MillisWASHINGTON, April 26 (Reuters) - Incumbent President Joe Biden entered the 2024 election race on Tuesday with something he didn't have two-and-a-half years ago: a record in the White House. Critics also say that increased federal spending under Biden, including $750 million on climate change and tax breaks, also drove inflation higher. Biden may have worse cards in 2024, with unemployment likely to rise as growth slows, interest rates remaining high and inflation holding above pre-pandemic levels. Biden also dismissed the sentences of thousands of people with federal offenses for simple marijuana possession, a disproportionately non-white group. The Biden administration also has faced scrutiny over its handling of record numbers of unaccompanied children crossing the U.S.-Mexico border illegally.

☆ Opinion | Which Inflation Measures Matter?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Of course, if you have been following this discussion, you have indeed heard this before. Clarity in the inflation discussion has been very hard to come by, even if you ignore the people filling my inbox with declarations that the dollar is doomed and that hyperinflation is just around the corner. I’ve compared debates among economists over each new trove of inflation data to ancient Roman priests seeking auguries in the entrails of sacrificed animals, a remark that, oddly, doesn’t seem to have won me many friends among my colleagues. It’s also disturbing that many economists always seem to come down on the same side of these debates: Optimists are always optimistic, pessimists always pessimistic. So I thought I’d devote today’s newsletter to a probably doomed attempt to bring some clarity to this discussion.

☆ Morning Bid: Purchasing managers of the world, diverge
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Softening second-tier data in the U.S. on Thursday put a bid under bonds for the first time in a few weeks, while bitcoin was clobbered. Purchasing manager's index data are the next set of economic figures due as market focus flings back on growth. British (GBPMMF=ECI) and euro zone (EUPMMF=ECI) manufacturing surveys are seen stuck in contraction territory. European and British services PMIs are seen steady and staying in expansion mode. British retail sales are expected to fall, adding up to a somewhat confounding picture.

☆ Gold prices ease with Fed rate trajectory in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,001.75 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT, after rising 1% on Thursday. Gold prices have been moderating in the absence of real incoming news flow and "we really need to see some bigger pieces of information to give it that directional conviction", said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "Gold pushed back above $2,000/oz as the weaker economic outlook is enticing safe-haven buying," ANZ said in a note. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver dipped 0.3% to $25.22 per ounce, while platinum was flat at $1,093.33 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,594.26.

☆ Short positions on Canada's TD Bank rise to $6.1 billion, ORTEX data shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TORONTO, April 19 (Reuters) - Hedge fund bets against Canada's TD Bank Group (TD.TO) hit $6.1 billion on Wednesday, a 45% increase from 14 days ago, according to data provider ORTEX's calculations, one day ahead of the Canadian lender's annual general meeting. So-called 'arbitrage investors', many of which are event-driven hedge funds, bet on mergers and acquisitions by buying shares of the target and shorting the acquirer's stock. TD, which is awaiting regulatory approval of its takeover of First Horizon, is expected to address the $13.4 billion deal at its AGM on Thursday in Toronto. Hedge funds profit when they borrow a stock from an institutional investor and sell it back when the price falls, pocketing the difference, a practice known as short-selling. TD shares are down 0.1% since the U.S. regional banking crisis began, and up 3.4% this week.

☆ Ultrarunner disqualified from race after using a car to complete part of the course
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( George Ramsay | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

CNN —Scottish ultramarathon runner Joasia Zakrzewski has been disqualified from a 50-mile race after traveling in a car for a section of the course. The 47-year-old Zakrzewski told the BBC she made a “massive error” in accepting the third-place trophy and “should have handed it back,” adding that she was “tired and jetlagged and felt sick” during the race having arrived from Australia the night before. Her friend and fellow runner, Adrian Stott, said he wasn’t able to offer further comment on the event. “I would never purposefully cheat and this was not a target race, but I don’t want to make excuses. UK Athletics said it was aware of the incident and that it would likely be managed at a national governing body level.

That's good news for struggling consumers, but doesn't tell the whole story of how much more Americans are spending due to rising prices. In that time, the cost of essentials like groceries, utilities and gas increased by 20% or more. The cost of groceries is up by almost 20%Since April 2021, the cost of food prepared at home has risen by almost 20%. Margarine prices increased by 54%, largely due to the war in Ukraine, which is the world's No. Relatedly, milk and bread production have also been affected by the conflict in Ukraine, with prices rising 19% and 21%, respectively.

☆ 35 Ways Real People Are Using A.I. Right Now
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Francesca Paris | Larry Buchanan | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +24 min

People are using ChatGPT and other A.I. Here’s how 35 real people are using A.I for work, life, play and procrastination. People are using A.I to …Plan gardens. Chris Norn Researcher at the University of Washington Two years ago researchers cracked the code on using A.I. When you run a Dungeons & Dragons game, Mr. Green says, you have to be creative, but that almost always means pulling from existing fantasy literature.

☆ Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Creep Higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Stock futures are edging higher. Today, investors may view the producer-price index with an eye to the Federal Reserve's potential path for interest rates. This follows yesterday's consumer-price index data that showed inflation eased in March. Join us: The Journal is hosting a live Q&A on the bull and bear cases for Cathie Wood’s ARK Innovation Exchange-Traded Fund at 11 a.m. Tune in, and submit questions, here.

☆ IMF's fiscal chief says U.S. CPI data shows need to maintain inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON, April 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Consumer Price Index data for March shows persistent above-target inflation pressures, "validating" the International Monetary Fund's emphasis on continuing to fight inflation at IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings this week, IMF Fiscal Affairs Director Vitor Gaspar said. Gaspar told a news conference that fiscal tightening could help remove upward pressures on interest rates by helping reduce fiscal demand and added that he saw little chance of a broad sovereign debt crisis in coming years. Reporting by David LawderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Another quarter-point increase is expected, but policymakers have also said they are watching banking data closely for signs of stress or a larger-than-anticipated drop in lending. The minutes "will likely express confidence in the separability of price stability and financial stability." Still, the events on that March 10 weekend added new complexity to a Fed policy debate that had been singlemindedly focused on lowering inflation from levels that last year were more than triple the Fed's 2% target. New consumer price index data released Wednesday is expected to show headline inflation falling, but with a still-high level of underlying or "core" inflation likely to concern Fed policymakers. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Cramer on inflation: If you're going to raise rates because of this, then you don't care about the data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCramer on inflation: If you're going to raise rates because of this, then you don't care about the dataCNBC’s Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber discuss the latest consumer price index data from March, and how it will affect the Fed's decision on interest rates.

☆ Series I bond rate expected to fall to below 4% in May, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Kate Dore | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But rates have been falling and the yield will decline again in May, experts say. Annual inflation rose by 5% in March, down from 6% in February, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. The annual rate may drop below 4%Based on inflation data from the past six months, Tumin says the variable portion of the I bond rate could drop to 3.38% in May. If the fixed rate remains at 0.4%, the new annual rate may drop to 3.79%, Tumin said. Of course, the combined annual yield is only an estimate until TreasuryDirect announces new rates in May.

☆ Gold gains as traders gear up for U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices gained on Wednesday as investors keenly await key U.S. inflation data for signs of how close interest rates are to peaking. Gold could continue to drift higher "as early birds place their bets on a soft inflation report," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "A soft inflation print could send gold prices above $2,032 to mark a fresh YTD high, given the inverted yield curve, talks of soft growth and rise of geopolitical tensions across parts of Asia." Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker on Tuesday said he feels the Fed may soon be done raising rates, while New York Fed President John Williams said the Fed's policy path will depend on incoming data. A "weaker U.S. dollar and returning investment flows have been holding (gold) prices," ANZ said in a note.

☆ Tax refunds are getting smaller, and fit into the picture of a slowing economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But as pandemic-related tailwinds run their course, another example becoming a thing of the recent past is bigger than typical tax refunds. "Earlier in the quarter, we were seeing taxes, your tax refunds higher year-over-year, during the last probably five or six weeks we've seen that decline. As pandemic-era benefits and tax credit wane, the tax refund data factors into the broader economic picture and the consumer as a source of strength. watch nowAll spending, not just retail spending, will be impacted by lower tax refunds, and that will continue into next quarter. The smaller tax refunds should not be a surprise to businesses — the data has been mounting over the past four to six weeks.

☆ Inflation rises 0.1% in March, less than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation rises 0.1% in March, less than expectedCNBC's Rick Santelli reports on consumer price index data from March, which showed inflation rising 0.1% in March, less than expected.

☆ Restaurant prices are rising faster than grocery prices for the first time since inflation ran hot
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Amelia Lucas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

For the first time since inflation began accelerating in mid-2021, restaurant prices outpaced grocery prices on a 12-month basis, according to the Labor Department. For months, restaurant CEOs like Cheesecake Factory's Matthew Clark and Wendy's Todd Penegor have touted their meals as a relative bargain compared with eating at home, based on consumer price index data. March food prices rose 8.5% over the last 12 months, fueled by the jump in the cost of eating away from home, which was up 8.8% over that period. The National Restaurant Association's chief economist, Bruce Grindy, attributed the increase to the surge in food prices at schools as free lunch programs instituted during the Covid pandemic expired. The overall consumer price index has risen 5% over the last 12 months as inflation continues to cool.

☆ Warren Buffett reacts to March inflation data: We don't profit from statistics and guessing
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWarren Buffett reacts to March inflation data: We don't profit from statistics and guessingBerkshire Hathaway’s Warren Buffett joins 'Squawk Box' from Tokyo to react to the latest consumer price index data from March.

☆ Wall Street meanders, dollar gains as Fed rate hike seen in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"My sense is that the labor market and CPI would favor the Fed raising rates again. However, what has made the market have second thoughts is the extent of the tightening of lending." The dollar index rose 0.52% and the two-year Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, added 4.2 basis points to 4.014%. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.3%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 0.10% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.03%. The dollar extended gains against the yen to 133.87 , the highest since March 15, on receding expectations of a near-term tweak to Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy.

☆ Treasury yields fall after data shows U.S. job growth slowed in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Ryan Browne | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

U.S. government debt prices were higher on Monday, after data released last week hinted at a slowdown in job growth. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note slipped to 3.3626%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond dipped to 3.5811%. Last week, the Labor Department released nonfarm payroll data for March, showing that the U.S. economy added 236,000 jobs over the period. Also in focus for investors is the inflation outlook, with consumer price index data due out on Wednesday. Auctions of three-month and six-month Treasury bills are scheduled for 11.30 a.m.

☆ The resilient job market is finally showing signs of cooling off
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The job market is clearly starting to slow down. Mohamed El-Erian said March's jobs report was a win-win for both the stock market and the Fed. "We are making this transition where the stock market was obsessed with interest-rate risk to one that is concerned about credit risk." What's your take on the latest job data? In other news:Traders works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 5, 2020.

☆ Stock futures rise slightly ahead of key inflation data and the kickoff of earnings season: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S equity futures rose slightly Sunday evening as investors looked ahead to key inflation data and the start of first-quarter earnings season. Futures tied to the broad market S&P 500 rose 0.2% and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 62 points, or 0.2%. The market was volatile as economic data showed signs of a weakening labor market. The March jobs report on Friday showed a resilient economy and moderate inflation, however, which pushed stock futures and Treasury yields higher. "It's still probably a toss-up as to whether the Fed hikes by another 25 basis points at its next meeting and stands pat; the next set of inflation data will probably be the deciding factor."

☆ March's banking chaos gave short sellers their biggest profits since the financial crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 15: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during morning trading on March 15, 2023 in New York City. Short sellers were sitting on more than $7 billion in profit from the mass sell-off of bank shares by the end of March, their largest windfall since the global financial crisis in 2008, according to data firm Ortex. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the emergency rescue of Credit Suisse by domestic rival UBS headlined a chaotic month for the global banking sector. Hedge funds shorting bank stocks were sitting on a total of $7.25 billion in unrealized gains over the course of the month, according to Ortex. "ORTEX data shows that March was the single most profitable month for short sellers in the banking sector since the 2008 financial crash," company co-founder Peter Hillerberg said Thursday.

☆ TD world's most shorted banking stock, shares down -ORTEX data
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Around 4.1% of TD's outstanding shares were out on loan to hedge funds, while the second-most shorted bank stock, JP Morgan , only had $2.3 billion worth of shorts, showed the data. Hedge funds profit when they borrow a stock from an institutional investor and sell it back when the price falls, pocketing the difference, a practice known as short-selling. Turmoil in the banking sector began last month with the collapse of regional banks Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, sparking a crisis of confidence. TD shares are down 15.7% since the beginning of the regional bank crisis and down 3.4% this week. Around 2.9% of BMO's outstanding shares were out on loan to hedge funds, or about $1.8 billion.

☆ TD world's most shorted banking stock, ORTEX data shows; shares fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Maiya Keidan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

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