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☆ US consumer confidence falls to lowest level since July
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —US consumer confidence fell in November as inflation and economic uncertainty continued to loom large and potentially dampen holiday shopping plans. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index measured 100.2 for the month, lower than the downwardly revised 102.2 in October. The index is at its lowest level since July, when it fell to 95.7 amid spiking gas prices and worsening inflation. “If we had a combination of higher prices and higher unemployment at the same time, I think we’d be seeing a very different consumer than what we see right now,” he said. While consumer confidence has fallen, it still remains relatively resilient; but it is unlikely to last, said Chris Rupkey, chief economist of FwdBonds LLC, in a note on Tuesday.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence at four-month low; house price inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"However, any potential recession could be short and shallow given the tight labor market and the hint that layoffs may not be as bad as feared." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Lower-income households have borne the brunt of inflation that, before October, was marked by annual consumer prices increasing at rates not seen since the early 1980s. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. Tight supply will, however, likely keep a floor under house prices.

☆ Black Friday Spending Traps: Credit-Card Offers, Tricky Trips and So-So Discounts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Imani Moise | Jacob Passy | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Black Friday shoppers at Macy’s in New York in 2021; a spending spree might be riskier this year as the chance of a recession looms, financial advisers said. Americans say they will rein in spending this Black Friday, but to avoid busting their budgets, shoppers should do even more planning than usual, experts suggest. With high inflation and economic uncertainty dampening the usual holiday cheer, shoppers say they want to take a more frugal approach to gift giving, according to The Conference Board, a nonprofit research organization.

☆ The window is closing on corporate 'greedflation.' It's another sign that inflation is cooling off.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"US profit margins surged after the recession. "Greedflation" — the idea that companies are using inflation as an excuse to raise prices and boost profits — could be part of the explanation. But they have also taken advantage of circumstances to expand profit margins," said UBS Chief Economist Paul Donovan. To what extent soaring corporate profits are to blame for high inflation remains uncertain, but as inflation slows down, the negative CEO sentiment suggests some companies' profits are set to fall as well. In September, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said retailers' profit margins "have risen significantly more than the average hourly wage that retailers pay workers."

☆ Premarket stocks: Recession fears receded this earnings season
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

So can the United States avoid a serious recession? What’s happening: As the third-quarter earnings season wraps up, it appears that CEOs may think so. The past month has brought with it a solid earnings season and a bevy of encouraging economic data that shows a slowing pace of inflation. The United States will enter a “mild recession in the second half of 2023, they said. All regions of the United States saw month-over-month and year-over-year declines.

There are hints that the worst of the U.S.'s bout with inflation may be in the past. The consumer price index, a widely watched inflation gauge, came in at 7.7% in October when compared with a year earlier. Inflation can be very hard to predict," Kevin Kliesen, business economist and research officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told CNBC in an interview. However, any potential downturn is expected to be mild, The Conference Board CEO Steve Odland told CNBC. This could be a much less painful experience with the Fed trying to tame inflation than it has been in the past," Odland said.

☆ Here's when Wall Street thinks inflation could finally end
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Noah Higgins-Dunn | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

There are hints that the worst of the U.S.'s bout with inflation may be in the past. The consumer price index, a widely watched inflation gauge, came in at 7.7% in October when compared with a year earlier. While that was still well above the Federal Reserves' 2% target, it did clock in below Wall Street's expectations. However, any potential downturn is expected to be mild, The Conference Board CEO Steve Odland told CNBC. This could be a much less painful experience with the Fed trying to tame inflation than it has been in the past."

☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

☆ Is the Fed 'going rogue'? Calls heat up to back off quest for 2% inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

For at least a decade, the Federal Reserve's position that a 2% inflation rate is where the economy best functions has been taken as gospel. 'Going rogue' "As far as 2% is concerned, I think it's stupid," said Jim Paulsen, chief investment officer at Leuthold Group. Paulsen and Sternlicht aren't the only critics of Fed policy. Achieving a steady 2% inflation rate, however, has proven elusive for the Fed. 'The gold standard' for policy But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and most of his colleagues have rebuffed calls to raise the goal.

☆ U.S. existing home sales plunge; tight inventory keeps prices rising
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The combination of rising house prices and mortgage rates have sent housing affordability plummeting," said Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide in Columbus, Ohio. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate breached 7% in October for the first time since 2002, according to data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac. "A deteriorating housing market, nagging inflation and an aggressive Fed puts the economy on unsure footing for 2023." Even as demand weakens, housing supply remains tight, limiting the slowdown in house price inflation. The median existing house price increased 6.6% from a year earlier to $379,100 in October.

☆ U.S. consumer sentiment slumps; inflation expectations edge up
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The University of Michigan's preliminary November reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 54.7, down from 59.9 in the prior month. The survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations edged up to 5.1% from 5.0% in October. Data on Thursday showed consumer prices rose less than expected in October, pushing the annual increase below 8% for the first time in eight months. While that is consistent with a shift in spending to services from goods, some economists do not expect a collapse in consumer spending. "The correlation between changes in monthly consumer sentiment and real consumer spending is low, especially for this measure and especially in the short run," said Scott Hoyt, a senior economist at Moody's Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

☆ A certified financial planner and author shares his 5 strategies to recession-proof your finances before a downturn hits
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Streaks | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The time to make your finances more resilient is before the economic downturn starts. He shared with Insider his top strategies for protecting your finances before and during a financial downturn. With high inflation and increasing interest rates, it would be best to put off large expenditures that are not necessary. "Being in a position where you can respond effectively to emergencies or even a job loss makes you better prepared for an economic downturn." Prepare your finances before the economic downturn beginsTaking steps to prepare for the economic downturn before it happens will take away the stress and panic that can arise when experiencing a recession.

☆ Fed Chair Powell indicated rates will stay higher for longer than expected, says Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell indicated rates will stay higher for longer than expected, says Roger FergusonRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to react to the Fed's decision to hike interest rates by another 75 basis points.

☆ The market is disconnected from the Fed's comitment to combat inflation, says Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market is disconnected from the Fed's comitment to combat inflation, says Roger FergusonRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision and what it could mean for markets.

☆ The US economy went back into growth mode in the third quarter of 2022, making an imminent recession less likely
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

That beats the 2.4% growth estimate. The advance estimate suggests the US economy is growing again after shrinking in the first two quarters of 2022. That comes after the US economy shrank by 0.6% and 1.6% in the second quarter and first quarter of the year respectively. We also should see a modest positive growth rate after two quarters of negative growth." Kelly said in a note that "this week's GDP report could show surprising strength, especially following two negative quarters and numerous predictions of imminent recession."

☆ The US economy went back to growing in the third quarter of 2022, making an imminent recession less likely
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Amazon gets irrationally swept up in tech angst
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Revenue for the business that delivers goods in the mail jumped to $107 billion, a 13% increase from a year earlier. Amazon said fourth-quarter operating income could be as low as zero along with net sales projections that fell below what analysts were expecting, according to estimates gathered by Refinitiv. Unlike Meta, Amazon is a victim of wider trends, including angst over the technology sector. Amazon Web Services, the data storage business, increased sales 28% from a year earlier to $20.5 billion, also short of Wall Street’s expectations. For the fourth quarter, Amazon said it expects net sales to be between $140 billion and $148 billion, up 2% to 8% from the fourth quarter in 2021.

☆ Housing is on the verge of a correction and Americans are feeling less and less upbeat about the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

And no wonder — the economy is giving Americans less and less reason for optimism. The US housing market isn't just slowing down, it's in the early stages of a major correction. According to the latest consumer confidence report, Americans are feeling downbeat across the board. In Franco's words: "The Expectations Index is still lingering below a reading of 80 — a level associated with recession — suggesting recession risks appear to be rising." Here are the latest market moves.

☆ Premarket stocks: Don't be fooled by a strong GDP report
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

That’s why it’s so surprising that the US economy is expected to show robust growth in Thursday’s third-quarter GDP report. Economists warn that the report could be a one-hit-wonder that overstates momentum in an economy that is actually slowing. “There is more braking power being inflicted on the US economy than will be at all apparent in the third-quarter GDP report,” wrote Kelly. Central bank officials are going to be looking at underlying metrics in the report, and will likely ignore headline numbers, said Patterson. The bottom line: The rejiggering of trade balances often falsely inflates economic growth calculations ahead of a recession.

☆ Inflation worries hurt U.S. consumer confidence; house prices decelerating
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Consumers were also more inclined to buy a house, probably encouraged by a sharp slowdown in house price inflation. On a monthly basis, prices fell 0.9% in August, the second straight monthly drop. Prices fell 0.7% on a monthly basis after decreasing 0.6% in July. It was the first time since March 2011 that monthly prices posted back-to-back declines.

Earnings reports from companies including Microsoft (MSFT.O) and Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) will offer further clues on the strength of corporate America amid higher Treasury yields and an aggressive Federal Reserve tightening cycle. Shares of the two companies, which report after market close, were up about 0.2% each in premarket trading. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"There is a positive view (on technology earnings)," said Giuseppe Sette, president of AI investment platform Toggle. Leading premarket gains among Dow components, Coca-Cola Co (KO.N) rose 2.4% after the company raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts, banking on steady demand amid price increases. 3M (MMM.N), on the other hand, fell 2.8% as it cut its full-year revenue and profit forecasts due to a stronger dollar.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence ebbs in October; inflation expectations rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence ebbed in October after two straight monthly increases amid rising concerns about inflation and a possible recession next year, a survey showed on Tuesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 102.5 this month from 107.8 in September. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations rose to 7.0% from 6.8% last month. Its expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell to 78.1 from 79.5 last month. "Looking ahead, inflationary pressures will continue to pose strong headwinds to consumer confidence and spending," said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board in Washington.

☆ Gas prices cause consumer uncertainty heading into holiday season, says Conference Board's Odland
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGas prices cause consumer uncertainty heading into holiday season, says Conference Board's OdlandSteve Odland, The Conference Board CEO, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss inflation's impact on consumer confidence.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed may have changed markets forever
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Federal Reserve officials have clearly stated that they have no plans to pivot away from their policy of aggressive rate hikes to fight persistent inflation. It’s become pointless to try to apply economic rationale to stock markets, Prins told me in a recent interview. Another mandate: The Federal Reserve is mandated to keep unemployment and prices in check, but the third unofficial mandate of the Fed is to boost markets, said Prins. They understand, says Prins, that eventually the Fed will return to its long-term policy of aiding markets. The Federal Reserve has stepped up its efforts to tamp down high prices via a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes.

☆ An economic index is flashing a recession warning sign, but it may be a 'mixed signal.' Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Sarah O'Brien | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesA monthly gauge of what could lie ahead for the U.S. economy is flashing a recession warning sign. The Leading Economic Index dipped by 0.4% in September from August and is down 2.8% since March, according to the Conference Board, an independent group that publishes the index. The latest reading is below a threshold that the organization considers a recession signal. watch nowInitial jobless claims — another data point used in the index — also do not point to the kind of broad-based job loss that comes with a recession. "There are pockets of the labor market that have shed jobs, but it's not widespread job loss," he said.

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