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☆ Dollar defensive as markets weigh U.S. rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar was restrained on Friday by uncertainty over the path of U.S. interest rates, while the euro held overnight gains as data hinted that the downturn in the euro zone may be easing. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency with six peers, eased 0.029% to 103.73, staying close to the two-and-a-half month low of 103.17 it touched earlier this week. The Australian dollar rose 0.14% to $0.657, while the kiwi rose 0.07% to $0.605. Cash Treasuries resumed trading in Asia after Japan's holiday on Thursday, with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes up 2.9 basis points at 4.445%. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond rose 2.8 basis points to 4.576%.

Persons: Sterling, Cash Treasuries Organizations: U.S, Federal, Fed, Bank of Japan, ING, Treasury Locations: Germany, Asia

☆ Japanese inflation picks up as BOJ pivot bets grow
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Core inflation had slowed to 2.8% in September from 3.1% in August, the first time it was below 3% since August 2022. Many analysts see the yield control policy as becoming obsolete as the central bank has made the 10-year yield target more and more flexible, sending the JGB yield closer to 1%. However, the BOJ has brushed aside such speculation, saying that the current global cost-push inflation is not sustainable. The latest consumer inflation data is among indicators the BOJ will eye at its two-day policy meeting ending on Dec. 19, its last scheduled review this year. Japanese firms, too, are closely watching inflation data as the government is pressing them to raise wages to help employees deal with the higher cost of living.

Persons: Androniki, mths BOJ, Tetsushi Kajimoto, Takahiko Wada, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO

☆ Euro profits from better euro zone data; U.S. market shut
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The euro edged up on Thursday after data suggested the downturn in the euro zone economy may be starting to ease, although holidays in the U.S. and Japan kept trading activity muted. Earlier in the day, the euro rose against most other major currencies, following the surveys. The survey showed the euro zone economy is on track to contract again in the fourth quarter. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the poll expectation for 43.4 but was still below breakeven. The euro was up last up 0.18% on the day at $1.09075, having traded as high as $1.0931 earlier in the day.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, There's, Michael Brown, Brown, Geert Wilders, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Bitcoin, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln, Emelia, Marguerita Choy, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Saxo Bank, British, Federal, University of Michigan, Fed, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, U.S, Japan, Germany, EU, Wednesday's, Netherlands, Singapore

☆ Euro bounces as investors cling to sliver of positive euro zone data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The euro rose on Thursday for the first time this week, after data suggested the downturn in the euro zone economy may be starting to ease, although holidays in the United States and Japan kept trading activity muted. The euro rose broadly, gaining the most against the Swedish crown , after the Swedish central bank left rates unchanged, while also gaining on the yen and the Swiss franc. The survey showed the euro zone economy is on track to contract again in the fourth quarter. Its PMI rose to 43.8 from 43.1, beating the poll expectation for 43.4 but was still below breakeven. Sterling was last up 0.5% on the day at $1.2558, having risen to a high of $1.2575 after the PMI data.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, There's, Michael Brown, Brown, Geert Wilders, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Jeff Ng, Changpeng Zhao, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln, Emelia Organizations: REUTERS, Swiss, PMI, European Central Bank, Fed, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Markets, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, United States, Japan, Germany, Swedish, EU, Wednesday's, Netherlands, Asia, Singapore

☆ Holiday thins trading after data slows dollar's decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Vidya Ranganathan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With markets shut in Japan and the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday, currencies barely moved and cash U.S. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia. By 0530 GMT, however, the euro was 0.15% higher at $1.0902 and the dollar index was a tad weaker at 103.71. Adding to investors' confusion, data showed orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell more than expected in October, signalling an economy cooling considerably after hot third-quarter growth. The dollar's rebound comes after a three-week long spell of weakness driven by evidence of a slowing economy and disinflation, leading markets to price out any additional Fed rate hikes. The forward-looking flash November purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) are also due out globally on Thursday and should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin.

Persons: Marcos Brindicci, Treasuries weren't, Jeff Ng, Treasuries, policymaker Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao, Vidya Ranganathan, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Federal, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Governing, PMI, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Rights SINGAPORE, Japan, United States, Asia, Britain, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Japan CPI to light up dulled Thanksgiving trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Denny Thomas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Tom Turkey float rides during the 97th Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 23, 2023. With Wall Street shut for Thanksgiving on Thursday, Asian investors will miss the usual swing factor. Instead, Friday's release of Japan's core inflation data for October will set the tone for trading in the region. Japan's core consumer inflation likely accelerated again in October, staying above the central bank's 2% price target for a 19th straight month, according to a Reuters poll. But some of the inflation-easing trade is already priced into the market, reflected in the near 11% rally in the MSCI world index (.WORLD) in the past 18 trading days.

Persons: Tom Turkey, Brendan McDermid, Denny Thomas, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Bank of, Beijing, European Central Bank, Stocks, Malaysia CPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Japan, China, Europe, Singapore, New Zealand, Thailand, Taiwan

☆ Holiday thins trading after data nudges dollar higher
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

With markets shut in Japan and the United States for the Thanksgiving holiday, currencies barely moved and cash U.S. Treasuries weren't traded in Asia. The dollar index rose overnight, bouncing from a 2-1/2 month low, after economic data showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week. The weakness in the dollar has buoyed the yen , along with expectations the Bank of Japan may shift away from its ultra-loose monetary policy next year. The dollar index was just 0.03% lower at 103.84, with the euro unchanged at $1.0887. The forward-looking flash November purchasing manager indexes, or PMIs, are also due out globally on Thursday and should help investors assess recession risks and how quickly rate cuts will begin.

Persons: Treasuries weren't, Jeff Ng, Treasuries, policymaker Mario Centeno, Joachim Nagel, Sterling, Jeremy Hunt, Changpeng Zhao Organizations: U.S ., Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, Fed, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Governing, PMI Locations: Japan, United States, Asia, Britain, U.S

☆ BOJ to end negative interest rates in 2024, over 80% of economists say: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Satoshi Sugiyama | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While none of 26 economists predicted changes in the upcoming December BOJ meeting, many foresaw the negative rate policy, which has set Japan's short-term deposit rate at minus 0.1%, would reach the end of the line next year. In the Nov. 15-20 poll, 22 of 26, or 85%, of economists said the BOJ would end the policy by the end of next year. Having watered down YCC, the BOJ's next focus is to end its negative interest rate policy and push short-term rates to zero, sources previously told Reuters. Close to 85% of poll respondents forecast the BOJ would end its YCC policy, while the rest said it would tweak the scheme again, the poll found. EYES ON NEXT YEAROf 22 economists in the poll who chose 2024 for the end of negative rates, more than a half, 12, opted for the April 25-26 meeting.

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Mitsubishi UFJ, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Hiroshi Namioka, Namioka, Fumio Kishida's, Chiyuki Takamatsu, Satoshi Sugiyama, Veronica Khongwir, Sujith Pai, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of, Reuters, Capital, Research Institute, Mitsubishi, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities, D, Management, Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Deutsche Bank's CVIX (.DBCVIX) - the currency market's version of Wall St's "fear index" of stock volatility and a weighted average of implied "vol" in nine major pairings - has basically imploded. By driving short-term dollar cash rates and U.S. bond yields higher over the past 20 months, the Fed basically sucked cash from the wider investment world and supercharged dollar exchange rates everywhere. Now that it looks done, the buck's finally on the back foot - plumbing levels not seen since August. With implied volatility directionally biased, the dollar index and the CVIX are typically well correlated and both peaked in tandem in same month of September last year.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Deutsche Bank's, Chris Turner, Francesco Pesole, BOJ, BOE, Marcelli, Morgan Stanley, Matthew Hornbach, David Evans Organizations: REUTERS, Deutsche, U.S, ING, Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank and Bank of England, ECB, UBS Global Wealth, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S . Federal, Japan, U.S

☆ Dollar hovers near 2-1/2-month lows, easing pressure on yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The dollar index held around 2-1/2-month lows after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting did little to dislodge market expectations that its monetary tightening cycle was over. Treasury yields slipped again overnight to hover around 4.40%, easing further pressure on the yen. The Japanese yen advanced around 0.1% versus the greenback to 148.28, clinging to recent gains after ticking up slightly from as low as 147.155 overnight. While speculation that the Bank of Japan could exit from negative interest rates early next year should help stabilize the yen, the Japanese currency still faces strong headwinds.

Persons: Matt Simpson, CME's, Sterling, Simpson, Tony Sycamore Organizations: U.S, Index, Treasury, Bank of Japan, IG Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Markets in a holiday mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermid Acquire Licensing RightsNov 23 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Lewis Krauskopf, markets correspondent. Markets were buoyant ahead of Asia trading and the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., with stocks resuming their massive rally this month that has been fueled by hopes of a more benign interest rate backdrop. Japanese markets were also set to be closed for a national holiday on Thursday. While speculation that the Bank of Japan could exit from negative interest rates early next year stands to help stabilize the yen, the Japanese currency still faces strong headwinds. Trading volumes were set to be subdued for the rest of the week with markets in the U.S. closed on Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Lewis Krauskopf, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Federal, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Nikkei, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Singapore CPI, Indonesia Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Santa Claus, New York City, U.S, Lewis, Asia, China, Beijing, Singapore

☆ Dollar extends fall ahead of Fed minutes, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The dollar index fell for a third straight session on Tuesday ahead of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting as expectations grow the central bank will start to cut rates in the early portion of next year. Bregar noted, however, the downward move in the greenback may be starting to run out of steam and big option expirations in the eurodollar and yen could stabilize the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.13% to 103.31 after falling to a fresh 2-1/2 month low of 103.17, its lowest since Aug. 31. The weakness in the dollar has buoyed the yen, along with expectations the Bank of Japan may eventually start to move off its ultra-loose monetary policy next year. The yen strengthened 0.42% versus the greenback to 147.76 per dollar after the greenback hit its lowest level since mid-September at 147.14 yen, while sterling was last trading at $1.254, up 0.29% on the day.

Persons: CME's, Erik Bregar, It's, it's, Bregar, Chuck Mikolajczak, Nick Macfie Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Bull, Bank of Japan, greenback, Thomson Locations: U.S ., Toronto

☆ Japan's Nikkei seen rising to 35,000 by mid-2024 on earnings boost: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A man looks at an electric board displaying the Nikkei stock average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2023. The median forecast for the Nikkei's level in mid-2024 was 35,000, with responses ranging from 31,143 to 39,500, the Reuters poll of 10 stocks strategists taken Nov. 10-20 showed. Japan's equity benchmark started this week by pushing to its highest level since March 1990 at 33,853.46 following a three-week winning streak. That would mean some stagnation for equities in the latter half of next year, with the Nikkei still stuck at 35,000 at year-end, according to the median poll response. "35,000 looks to be about the level where Nikkei gains line up with the timing of the BOJ getting rid of negative interest rate policy," Sycamore said.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masayuki Kichikawa, IG's, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, Kevin Buckland, Junko Fujita, Noriyuki, Rahul Trivedi, Pranoy, Alex Richardson Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Rights, Bank of Japan, Federal, Sumitomo Mitsui DS Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, IG's Sydney

Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. If the BOJ pulls interest rates above zero for the first time in years, banks' lending margins could rise. Steve Donzé, deputy head of investment at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo, said he had also been buying Japanese bank stocks. BOND PAINJapanese inflation means bond investors could suffer. But investors are cautious about this so-called yield curve control policy ending as the BOJ is forced to tighten monetary policy.

Persons: Issei Kato, Shigeka Koda, Koda, Steve Donzé, Junichi Inoue, Janus Henderson, James Halse, Warren Buffett, David Hogarty, Jon Day, Grégoire Pesques, Amundi, Pictet's Donzé, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, LONDON, Asia Investment, Kosaido Holdings, Kyushu Financial, Pictet, Management, Platinum Asset Management, Global, Bank of America, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Dublin, Newton Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Singapore, Sydney, United States, Europe, London

☆ Japan shares hit three-decade high, yuan shoves dollar down
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. Financial shares led the gains on Monday as investors prepare for an eventual end to negative rates, while auto makers have been benefiting from a weak yen and high exports. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 0.8%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) dipped 0.2% as the country's central bank held rates steady as widely expected, but set a firm fix for the yuan that saw the dollar slip under 7.2000 to a three-month low. Sweden's central bank meets this week and may hike again, given high inflation and the weakness of its currency.

Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Brent, Wayne Cole, Lincoln Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, Nvidia, Japan's Nikkei, Financial, Hamas, Nasdaq, Tech, Futures, U.S, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, NAB, ECB, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SYDNEY, Asia, Pacific, Israel, United States, Gaza, October's

☆ Japan shares hit three-decade high, yuan climbs
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. Financial shares led the gains on Monday as investors prepare for an eventual end to negative rates, while auto makers have been benefiting from a weak yen and high exports. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) edged up 0.1%, having climbed 2.8% last week to a two-month high. That outlook helped bonds rally, with 10-year Treasury yields at 4.45% having dropped 19 basis points last week and away from October's 5.02% high. Sweden's central bank meets this week and may hike again, given high inflation and the weakness of its currency.

☆ Morning Bid: Thanksgiving starters of AI and oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso and dollarizing the economy and slashing spending with potentially painful reforms. The risk premium between German and Italian 10-year yields tightened to 170 bps - the lowest since Sept. 21.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, That's, thrall, Javier Milei, Milei, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey ,, Francois Villeroy de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Big Tech, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank, Bayer, Federal Reserve Bank of England, Andrew Bailey , Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Technologies, Keysight Technologies, Holdings Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Tokyo, Europe, Canada, Francois Villeroy de Galhau

TOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Shares of Japan's Panasonic Holdings (6752.T) have rallied about 10% since it announced on Friday a plan to sell a stake in its automotive systems business and the unit's potential listing raised broader restructuring hopes. Over the last decade, Hitachi's shares have more than trebled, when taking into account dividends, compared to a 87% return by Panasonic. Investors reacted positively to the potential sale of the stake in the automotive unit, which makes cockpit and electronics systems. With its plan, Panasonic likely starts a journey to make itself into a company with a higher return on equity, they said. Panasonic's automotive unit is separate from its energy unit that makes batteries for electric vehicles, including those from Tesla (TSLA.O).

Persons: Damian Thong, Thong, Jefferies, Hitachi's, Ulrike Schaede, Daniel Leussink, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Japan's Panasonic Holdings, Apollo Global Management, Panasonic, Hitachi, Macquarie, Investors, University of California San, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Tokyo, Singapore, University of California San Diego

☆ Morning Bid: Japanese stocks party like it's 1990
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A man walks past an electronic board displaying Japan's 10-year government bonds level, the current Japanese Yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average, outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, October 31, 2023. It's been a mixed start for most of Asia in this holiday-truncated week, though Japanese shares extended their bull streak to hit highs not seen since 1990. The Nikkei is up more than 8% so far this month, and almost 29% for the year so far. The entire market capitalisation of the Topix is 454 trillion yen ($3.03 trillion), yet Japanese companies held 555 trillion yen in internal reserves at the end of the financial year. Recent surveys show inflation expectations are finally picking up which may prompt households to invest some of the 1,000 trillion yen they currently keep in cash and deposits into equities and bonds.

Persons: Kim Kyung, It's, financials, de, de Cos, Bank of England Governor Bailey, Fed's Barkin, Wayne Cole, Christopher Cushing Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan's, Hamas, Tech, Nvidia, Futures, PPI, Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Israel, United States, Gaza, de Galhau

☆ Bank of Japan needs to walk away from ultra-loose monetary policy to support yen, Deutsche Bank says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

SeongJoon Cho | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesAmong major central banks, the Bank of Japan has been most notorious for its ultra-loose monetary policy, but that must come to an end soon to support the country's currency, according to Deutsche Bank. "For the yen to do something meaningfully better you really need more of a dovish pivot in every other central bank, or the Bank of Japan really has to start walking away from quantitative easing and negative rates," Tim Baker G10 FX strategist at Deutsche Bank told CNBC's Street Signs Asia. watch nowQuantitative easing is when a central bank tries to increase the liquidity in its financial system by buying long-term government bonds from the country's largest banks. The BOJ has used various quantitative easing tools to reflate the economy in the last three decades. The central bank has been cautious in unwinding its long-held ultra-easy monetary policy, wary of any premature moves that could potentially derail recent nascent improvements in the economy.

Persons: SeongJoon Cho, Tim Baker, CNBC's, Baker Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Bank of, Fed, ECB Locations: Hakone, Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ Yen eyes best week in four months, dollar heads for weekly decline
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The yen was on track for its best week against the dollar in four months on Friday on the prospect of a narrowing U.S.-Japan rate differential, with bets that the Federal Reserve is done raising rates leaving the greenback headed for a weekly loss. That's led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields alongside a fall in the dollar, which was on track to lose nearly 0.6% on the yen for the week, its worst weekly performance since July. Against the greenback, the euro and sterling were likewise eyeing a weekly jump of more than 1.5% each, while the dollar index was on track to lose 1.3%. The Japanese yen last stood at 150.72 per dollar, remaining on the weaker side of the 150 threshold and not far from Monday's one-year low of 151.92 per dollar. It's our house view that they don't touch policy settings for many, many months, so deep into next year," said Callow.

Persons: That's, Sean Callow, Callow Organizations: Federal, Fed, Treasury, CPI, Westpac, Bank of Japan, U.S, New Locations: Japan, U.S, United States, New Zealand

☆ Take Five: Black Friday is (almost) here
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. retailers are gearing up for Black Friday, marking the start of the shopping season that follows the Thanksgiving holiday, while business activity data should gauge the temperature elsewhere. 1/ BARGAIN HUNTINGThe crucial holiday shopping season kicks off with Black Friday on Nov. 24 at a time when investors are questioning whether the consumer-driven U.S. economy can remain resilient. This year's Black Friday comes as Americans grapple with soaring interest rates and inflation that, while easing, remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Already, data for October showed U.S. retail sales fell, pointing to slowing demand, although the decline was less than expected. As long as that's not the case, pressure is on the Kishida cabinet since a weak yen is unpopular politically.

Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lewis Krauskopf, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Karin Strohecker, There's, PIMCO, Rishi Sunak, David Cameron, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, bode, Sergio Massa, Javier Milei, Pragmatist Massa, Prinz Magtulis, Sumanta Sen, Kripa Jayaram, Pasit, Mark Potter Organizations: Walmart, REUTERS, Black, Nvidia, Insider Intelligence, European Commission, PMI, Fed, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, DOWNING STREET, Labour, gilts, Natwest, Reuters, Bank of Japan, Peronist, Thomson Locations: Chicago , Illinois, U.S, Argentina, Lewis, New York, Tokyo, London, Britain, Japan, Egypt, Taiwan, South Africa, India

☆ Asia stocks hang onto weekly gains as yields, oil fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The market is pricing in 98 basis points of cuts next year, compared with 73 basis points a week ago. "We forecast the policy rate to drop 100 basis points in 2H24 to end the year at 4.5%, before settling on hold at 3.5% by 1Q25." Treasury investors were looking to price in a little of that right now with yields on two-year treasuries down a whopping 21 basis points for the week at 4.85%. Ten-year note yields stood at 4.44%, having fallen 18 basis points for the week so far, a rousing rally from the 5.02% high hit just a month ago. It fared better against commodity-linked currencies such as the Canadian dollar , which were hampered by the slide in oil.

Persons: Brent, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Fumio Kishida, Xi, Wayne Cole, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Dealers, Walmart, Equity, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Japanese, APEC, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, 1Q25, Treasury, Fed, Thomson Locations: Asia, Japan, Pacific, U.S, United States, China, 2H24

An investor looks at an electronic board showing stock information at a brokerage house in Shanghai, China July 6, 2018. REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The economic calendar sees the release of Japanese trade data, machinery orders and the closely-watched 'tertiary activity index', as well as Australian unemployment and Chinese house prices. On the policy front, the Philippine central bank is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 6.50% on Thursday, although there's an outside chance it might hike to 6.75%. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Thursday:- Japan trade (October)- China house prices (October)- Philippines interest rate decisionBy Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, China's Alibaba Organizations: REUTERS, Investors, Treasury, Nikkei, Barclays, Bank of Japan, Lenovo, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, Asia, Japan, Philippine, Philippines

☆ Japan's economy shrinks far more than expected in third quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Japan's economy shrank way more than expected in the July-September period, provisional government data showed Wednesday, amid slowing global demand and rising domestic inflation. Provisional gross domestic product fell 2.1% in the third quarter compared to a year ago, after expanding 4.8% in April-June. The world's third-largest economy also contracted 0.5% in the third quarter from the previous quarter, after expanding 1.2% in the second quarter from the first. The weaker GDP print was partly driven by weaker than expected domestic capital expenditure, which contracted 0.6% in the third quarter from the second quarter — as opposed to expectations for a 0.3% expansion, according to the same government release. Private consumption in Japan was flat in the third quarter from the previous quarter, as domestic and foreign demand weighed on the economy.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan Locations: Japan

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