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It's official: China's economy is faltering
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Its economy grew 6.3% over the second quarter, falling short of forecasters' expectations. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.1% in June, down from 12.7% the previous month. Beijing finally lifted its harsh zero-COVID restrictions at the end of 2022, sparking hopes of a rapid recovery for the world's second-largest economy. "The pandemic hangover is plaguing China's recovery, Moody's Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise said in a research note. China's ruling Politburo is set to meet later this month, and economists expect it to discuss potentially bringing in a stimulus package to boost the country's sputtering growth.
Persons: China's, China –, Harry Murphy Cruise, Mark Haefele Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Beijing, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, CSI, Shanghai, People's Bank of Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, People's Bank of China
The AI boom is screwing over Gen Z
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Ed Zitron | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +13 min
Now, with the advent of generative AI, organizations are starting to automate many "junior" tasks — stripping away their dubious last attempt to "teach" young employees. America's young workers are headed toward a career calamity. Nobody wants to teach anymoreEven before the rise of AI, young people were facing an early-career crisis. This lack of care is clearly weighing on the young workers who need career development the most. Humans can be enhanced by AI, helped by AI, but replacing them with AI is a shortsighted decision made by myopic bean counters who can't see the value in a person.
Persons: there's, Gen, Gen Zers, it's, Gen Z, Louis, Zers, millennials, Peter Cappelli, Capelli, Paul Osterman, they'd, Osterman, they'll, ChatGPT, Qualtrics, What's, they're, Ulrich Atz, Tensie Whelan, New York University's, Atz, Whelan, , There's, Knight, It's, Ed Zitron Organizations: Management, Federal Reserve Bank of St, National Association of Colleges, Employers, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School of Business, US Department of Labor, MIT, Pew Research Center, National Bureau of Economic Research, Gallup, Workplace Intelligence, Amazon, Boston Consulting Group, New York, New York University's Stern Center, Sustainable Business Locations: America, New, Fortune
Property investment in China slid nearly 8% in the first half of the year, official data showed Monday, marking a deepening decline for a sector that accounts for up to a quarter of the world's second-largest economy. The country's property sector is struggling to emerge from a credit crisis after the government cracked down on its debt levels in August 2020. Years of exuberant growth has led to the construction of ghost towns where supply outstrip demand, as developers look to capitalize on the desire for home ownership and property investment. The 7.9% drop in investment for January to June was steeper than the 7.2% drop reported for January to May. China second-quarter growth came in at 6.3% from a year before and 0.8% from the quarter before, underwhelming market expectations yet again.
Persons: China's, China Vanke, Dan Wang, CNBC's Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Hang Seng Bank Locations: China
About 33.8 million Americans didn't have adequate access to food, according to the latest report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "Food inflation, as we've seen during the pandemic, has gone up, driven in large part by supply chain disruptions and shortages of food supply during the pandemic," according to Erika Thiem, chief supply chain officer at the nonprofit Feeding America. Food deserts, where access to affordable and healthy foods is limited, have also been widely blamed as a major cause of hunger in the U.S. He continued, "it's food prices that matter, not food access." "I think part of this is how problems compound problems," according to Stacy Dean, deputy under secretary at the USDA.
Persons: we've, Erika Thiem, Catherine D'Amato, Craig Gundersen, Stacy Dean Organizations: U.S . Department of Agriculture, That's, America, Greater Boston Food Bank, U.S, Baylor University, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: United States, Greater, U.S
China’s economy is flashing many warning signs. Weak spending is pushing China close to a dangerous trend known as deflation: Consumer prices are flat, and wholesale prices paid by companies are actually falling. “It’s not a strong recovery; the economy is quite weak,” said Wang Dan, the chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. Some companies are also moving supply chains out of China, which will have a longer-lasting effect on exports, Mr. Fattal said. But a huge accumulation of debt, particularly at the level of local governments, has made that hard to do.
Persons: , Diana Choyleva, “ It’s, Wang Dan, Richard Fattal, Fattal, Lou Jiwei, Cui Dongshu, Fu Linghui, Lou, Ms, Wang, Li You Organizations: Enodo, National Bureau, Statistics, Investment, Hang Seng Bank China, National Bureau of Statistics, Administration, Customs, Companies, Workers, China, China Passenger Car Association Locations: Shanghai, London, China, Baoding, United States, Europe
China GDP: Economy grows 6.3% in Q2 compared with low base
  + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Hong Kong CNN —China’s economy expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter from a year ago because of a low base, with momentum slowing following a strong reopening in the first quarter. Compared to the first quarter, gross domestic product grew just 0.8% from April to June, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Last year, harsh Covid-19 lockdowns wreaked havoc in the world’s second largest economy, including in the financial hub of Shanghai. The economy rebounded strongly In the first quarter after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, with GDP growing at 4.5%. Youth unemployment hit another record high, with the jobless rate for those ages 16 to 24 reaching 21.3% in June.
Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters Locations: Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing
Prices were also unchanged from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1% increase in May. The property sector, accounting for one-fourth of activity in the world's second-biggest economy, slumped sharply last year as developers defaulted on debts and suspended construction of presold housing projects. Markets widely expect more stimulus around a meeting of the ruling Communist Party's Politburo late this month, setting the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year. Thirty-one of the 70 cities monitored by NBS recorded month-on-month rises in new home prices, down from 46 in May. Prices were flat after rising in May in tier-one cities including Beijing and tier-two cities.
Persons: Chen Xiao, Hunter, Chen, Zou Lan, Goldman Sachs, dampening, Qiaoyi Li, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, William Mallard Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party's Politburo, Zhuge, NBS, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing
Mester acknowledged concerns that FedNow, a real-time, all-hours payment system the central bank is making available to banks, could exacerbate banking troubles by facilitating fast outflows from financial institutions, in effect super-charging a potential bank run. She said it will be up to the users of FedNow themselves to use transfer limits. "Future releases of the FedNow Service may allow configurable transaction limits by customer type, if such limits are deemed useful," she added. Mester said banks can also plan for how they can tap Fed emergency lending and private sources of liquidity, should they need it. Mester's comments on mitigating the financial stability risks of the real-time payment system were rooted in events in the spring, when trouble at a limited number of banks spooked the global financial system, and were in part rooted in anxious customers moving funds from affected banks very quickly.
Persons: Loretta Mester, Mester, Banks, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: YORK, Cleveland Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S
China PPI: Factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
China’s factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in over seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. That was the slowest pace since February 2021 and missed the 0.2% rise expected in the Reuters poll. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. Prices rose 2% year-on-year in 2022. Core CPI, excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year, slowing from 0.6% in the previous month.
Persons: China’s, , Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, CPI Locations: China, Beijing
But tempting as it is to buy into that - leading indicators have been flashing red for months, as yet to no avail - we are probably not at that stage just yet. "Most analysts have no choice but to have their initial bias gravitate to the mean or median range of these leading indicators," he said. Reuters ImageReuters ImageLONG AND VARIABLE LAGSOne of the most reliable recession indicators is the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAgain, if the economy isn't in recession by the end of the year, this time it really is different. The signals sent by leading indicators recently have been pretty clear - it just remains to be seen whether they will be accurate.
Persons: Jerome Powell, LEI, Eric Basmajian, Milton Friedman's, payrolls, Jamie McGeever, Jan Harvey Organizations: Federal, Reuters, EPB Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Ukraine
Producer prices sank 5.4% in June from a year earlier and slipped 0.8% from a month ago, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This was weaker than a Reuters poll that had expected a 5.0% annual decline, compared with the 4.6% annual decline in May. The annual decline in June was China's ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015. Monthly consumer price inflation in June was weaker 0.2%, weaker than expectations for flat growth and tracking the 0.2% decline in May. But this would still be soft and won't constrain the People's Bank of China's ability to loosen policy further."
Persons: Zhichun Huang, , Huang, PBOC Organizations: Visual China, Getty, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, Bank, People's Bank of China Locations: China, Ukraine
China's factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China's factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. The consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with the 0.2% gain seen in May, driven by a faster fall in pork prices. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. China last month cut policy rates to boost liquidity and vowed to take measures to promote household consumption. Reuters GraphicsFor producer prices, the biggest year-on-year declines were seen in energy, metals and chemicals as domestic and foreign demand weakened.
Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Pang, Hu Yuexiao, COVID, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics, PPI, Jones, Shanghai Securities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China
CNN —Wall Street bankers, investors and economists have for months waffled over whether a US recession is coming. But for some Americans, the unforgiving economic pain typical during recession has already set in. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output, so if more Americans are forced to cut back because they were laid off, that might throw the US economy into a recession. Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan told CNN last week that he expects a mild recession early next year, rather than the late 2022 recession many have predicted. That means that laid-off Americans were often able to find a new job quickly due to a hot job market.
Persons: Al Brown, Brown, it’s, ” Brown, That’s, Allison Joyce, haven’t, Nina McCollum, hasn’t, She’s, ” McCollum, , Thomas Simons, ” Simons, Eva Marie Uzcategui, , Timothy A, Clary, Brian Moynihan, frustrates McCollum, Regina Walton, Walton, she’s, “ It’s, I’ve, ” Walton, , I’m, Richard Murray, Murray, he’s, you’re Organizations: CNN, Wall, Flyers, New, New Hanover NCWorks, Workforce, Bloomberg, Getty, Investors, Jefferies, National Bureau of Economic Research, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, Bank of America, San Francisco Bay Area, Companies, Consolidated Omnibus Budget, Cascade Locations: Concord , North Carolina, America, New Hanover, Wilmington , North Carolina, Cleveland , Ohio, Miami , Florida, AFP, San Francisco Bay, , Boston
China's factory activity grew more slowly in June, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, corroborating official data last week that pointed to stuttering growth in the world's second-largest economy. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index slipped to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May. China's National Bureau of Statistics released data last Friday that showed the country's official manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.0 in June — compared with 48.8 in May. "Problems reflected in June's Caixin China manufacturing PMI, ranging from an increasingly dire job market to rising deflationary pressure and waning optimism, also point to the same conclusion." The Caixin manufacturing PMI surveys around 650 private and state-owned manufacturers that tend to be more export-oriented and located in China's coastal regions, while the official PMI surveys 3,200 companies across China.
Persons: , Wang Zhe Organizations: P Global, National Bureau of Statistics, Caixin Insight, PMI Locations: June's, China
Columbus, Ohio was named the top city for digital nomads in the United States, while Fort Lauderdale ranked last. Portland, Houston and Chicago have topped several lists highlighting the best cities for digital nomads, namely for having low housing costs and a high share of remote jobs that pay $100,000 per year or more. New York and Los Angeles, meanwhile, didn't even crack the top 20 best cities for digital nomads. 24, while New York City ranks No. The remote job market is shrinking in some cities, but flourishing in others.
Persons: Zumper, Louis, Covid — Organizations: Fort Lauderdale, Columbus , Ohio Portland , Oregon Kansas City , Missouri Houston St, Louis Chicago Cincinnati San, Louis Chicago Cincinnati San Antonio Detroit Denver Analysts, New York City, U.S . National Bureau of Economic Research, San Francisco Locations: U.S, California, Florida, Midwest, Zumper, Columbus , Ohio, United States, Columbus , Ohio Portland , Oregon Kansas City , Missouri Houston, Louis Chicago Cincinnati San Antonio, Kansas City, Cincinnati, St, Portland, Houston, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, Washington, San Francisco, York
The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".
Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing
BEIJING, June 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace, an official factory survey showed on Friday, as pressure builds for policymakers to release more stimulus to shore up weak demand. "Economic momentum is still quite weak in China," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in a note. "It is not clear if the weak economic data would push the government to launch aggressive stimulus measures soon," he added. The official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 52.3 from 52.9.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin, Beijing
CNBC Daily Open: Don't bet against the U.S. economy
  + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. China's businesses falterChina's factory activity in June shrank for a third consecutive month, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Successful spaceflight, but shares sinkVirgin Galactic successfully completed its first commercial spaceflight yesterday. Despite the smooth mission, Virgin Galactic shares sank more than 10% yesterday and a further 1.9% in extended training.
Persons: Dow, , Bob Pisani Organizations: CNBC, Commerce, Dow Jones, Federal, Nikkei, National Bureau of Statistics, Virgin Galactic, Italian Air Force, Kodiak Gas Services, Fidelis Insurance Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific, China, New Mexico
Belarus leader says nuclear arms will not be used
  + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
June 30 (Reuters) - Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, the Kremlin's staunchest ally in its war in Ukraine, said on Friday he was certain Russian tactical nuclear weapons deployed in his country would never be used. The Belarusian president, in an address marking his ex-Soviet state's national day, said the stationing of the weapons in Belarus was "my firmest initiative". Lukashenko, like Russia, has repeatedly accused Western countries of trying to destroy his state and says the nuclear deployment is necessary to deter potential aggressors. In his remarks, he said the same Belarusian opposition politicians, now mostly in exile, who denounced the weapons deployment also criticised the construction of a Russian-built nuclear power station now operating in Belarus. "If they shout that nuclear weapons are bad, just do the opposite."
Persons: Alexander Lukashenko, Lukashenko, Vladimir Putin, Sergei Ryabkov, Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Jacek Siewiera, Wagner, I've, Ronald Popeski, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: Russia's Tass, Poland's National Bureau of Security, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Belarus, Belarusian, Soviet, Russia, Poland's, Africa, Europe, Poland
Factory activity in China in June contracted for a third month, official data released June 30, 2023 show. Weak China economic data in April and May have fanned calls for economic stimulus for the world's second-largest economy. China's factory activity in June contracted for a third month, while non-manufacturing activity was at its weakest since Beijing abandoned its strict "zero Covid" policy late last year. A PMI reading above 50 points to an expansion in activity, while a reading below that level suggests a contraction. It is not clear if the weak economic data would push the government to launch aggressive stimulus measures soon," he added.
Persons: , Zhang Zhiwei Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI Locations: China, Beijing
Their opinion said that colleges consider legacy status, athlete, financial aid eligibility, and race. Recruited athletes, legacy students, children of faculty and staff, children of honors, and other special recommendations remain lawful. Following the Supreme Court's decision, several lawmakers and former leaders voiced their displeasure with the ruling and how it maintained legacy admissions. "If SCOTUS was serious about their ludicrous "colorblindness" claims," Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tweeted, "they would have abolished legacy admissions, aka affirmative action for the privileged." They introduced a bill this legislative session that bans the practice of legacy admissions in New York colleges and universities, declaring them "discriminatory and inequitable."
Persons: SCOTUS, , John Roberts —, Rep, Alexandria Ocasio, Cortez, Andy Kim Organizations: Service, Harvard University, University of North, Harvard, UNC, of Economic Research Locations: University of North Carolina, Alexandria, New York
China's industrial profits tumble, deepening economic gloom
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
BEIJING, June 28 (Reuters) - Annual profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins, reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery. "The still slow recovery in industrial profits pointed to sustained difficulties facing business operations," said Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute. Wu said the corporate struggles strengthen the case for more policy measures to help companies. "As the external environment becomes increasingly complicated and severe, domestic demand still appears to be insufficient, weighing on further recovery in industrial profits," said NBS statistician Sun Xiao in an accompanying statement, noting that the foundation for a revival in industrial profits is still not solid. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.77 million) from their main operations.
Persons: Wu Chaoming, Wu, Sun Xiao, Goldman Sachs, Li Qiang, Li, Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Institute, P Global, Summer, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin
China's tumbling industrial profits deepens economic gloom
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
BEIJING, June 28 (Reuters) - Annual profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins, reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery. "The still slow recovery in industrial profits pointed to sustained difficulties facing business operations," said Wu Chaoming, deputy director of the Chasing International Economic Institute. Wu said the corporate struggles strengthen the case for more policy measures to help companies. "As the external environment becomes increasingly complicated and severe, domestic demand still appears to be insufficient, weighing on further recovery in industrial profits," said NBS statistician Sun Xiao in an accompanying statement, noting that the foundation for a revival in industrial profits is still not solid. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.77 million) from their main operations.
Persons: Wu Chaoming, Wu, Sun Xiao, Goldman Sachs, Li Qiang, Li, Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Economic Institute, P Global, Summer, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin
China cuts loan prime rate as economic recovery fizzles out
  + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
The rate cuts come as Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, slash their forecasts for China’s economy. The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. This is the first time the PBOC has cut both LPR rates since August 2022, when renewed Covid lockdowns and a deepening property downturn were pummeling the economy. “The 10 bps rate cut[s] are unlikely to stimulate business confidence and housing demand,” said Ken Cheung, chief Asian foreign exchange strategist at Mizuho Bank. Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks slid after Tuesday’s rate cuts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Covid, , Ken Cheung, , ” Goldman Sachs, Fu Linghui Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, People’s Bank of China, Mizuho Bank, Shanghai, National Bureau, Statistics, NBS Locations: Hong Kong, Beijing
SEOUL, June 19 (Reuters) - South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol departed Seoul for Paris on Monday to support his country's bid to host Expo 2030, part of a foreign trip that will also include meetings with the leaders of France and Vietnam, his office said. Yoon will address the general assembly of the International Bureau of Expositions (BIE), the organiser of the world fair, to promote South Korea's bid. Yoon will then head to Vietnam on Thursday for a three-day state visit, accompanied by a 205-person business delegation, his office said. 1 salesman" for South Korea, has made business deals and "sales diplomacy" a core element of his foreign trips since taking office. "It will be the largest business delegation since the launch of the Yoon Suk Yeol administration," Choi Sang-mok, senior presidential secretary for economy, said on Tuesday.
Persons: Yoon Suk Yeol, Yoon, Ukraine's Odesa, Emmanuel Macron, Yoon Suk, Choi, mok, Soo, hyang Choi, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Paris, International, South, NATO, Thomson Locations: SEOUL, Seoul, France, Vietnam, South Korean, Busan, Saudi Arabia's Riyadh, Italy's Rome, Madrid, South Korea
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