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Mike Schenk, chief economist of Credit Union National Association, said in a statement that the "healthy economic growth will not last." CEOs are pessimistic about the future and the hot labor market is coolingCEOs, for one, aren't feeling too good about the economy. "The labor market continues to be hot, even if it's cooled a little bit since the beginning of this year," Bunker told Insider. "Where we're seeing it does signal that it is sectors normalizing, rather than dramatically pulling back postings because they are concerned about short term economic growth." He noted that excess labor demand "gives you a lot of running room here before the labor market actually gets soft."
That beats the 2.4% growth estimate. The advance estimate suggests the US economy is growing again after shrinking in the first two quarters of 2022. That comes after the US economy shrank by 0.6% and 1.6% in the second quarter and first quarter of the year respectively. We also should see a modest positive growth rate after two quarters of negative growth." Kelly said in a note that "this week's GDP report could show surprising strength, especially following two negative quarters and numerous predictions of imminent recession."
That beats the 2.4% growth estimate. The advance estimate suggests the US economy is growing again after shrinking in the first two quarters of 2022. That comes after the US economy shrank by 0.6% and 1.6% in the second quarter and first quarter of the year respectively. We also should see a modest positive growth rate after two quarters of negative growth." Kelly said in a note that "this week's GDP report could show surprising strength, especially following two negative quarters and numerous predictions of imminent recession."
That’s why it’s so surprising that the US economy is expected to show robust growth in Thursday’s third-quarter GDP report. Economists warn that the report could be a one-hit-wonder that overstates momentum in an economy that is actually slowing. “There is more braking power being inflicted on the US economy than will be at all apparent in the third-quarter GDP report,” wrote Kelly. Central bank officials are going to be looking at underlying metrics in the report, and will likely ignore headline numbers, said Patterson. The bottom line: The rejiggering of trade balances often falsely inflates economic growth calculations ahead of a recession.
Speculation about a potentially more dovish Fed - despite U.S. inflation remaining hot - was visible in money markets. But they climbed back again, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yields up at 4.229% and two-year note yields at 4.498%. On the long end, 30-year Treasury yields rose to an 11-year high of 4.359%. "If the Fed is going to be data dependent, these data points should be a focus point for them. Whether or not that actually happens, is yet to be seen," said Matthew Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailYou're seeing earnings positivity reflected in stock markets right now, says Northwestern Mutual's SchutteBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CIO, and Meera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Pandit's take on equity markets, how Schutte sees the markets right now and how Pandit is positioning as an investor.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Northwestern Mutual's Brent Schutte and JPM's Meera PanditBrent Schutte, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management CIO, and Meera Pandit, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Pandit's take on equity markets, how Schutte sees the markets right now and how Pandit is positioning as an investor.
The British pound fell below $1.13 Wednesday after UK inflation hit 10.1% in September. Soaring food and housing costs helped drive inflation back to the 40-year high hit in July. The biggest rise in food prices since 1980 helped push the inflation rate back into double digits, the ONS said. "The uptick in food prices will be of particular concern," he added. Signs of prices rising beyond core areas is a warning sign for the likelihood of an economic slowdown.
UK finance minister Hunt sets up expert council to advise him
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Britain's new finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Monday he was forming an Economic Advisory Council to provide him with "independent expert advice" as he tries to lead the economy out of a crisis of confidence among investors. Hunt said the council would comprise Rupert Harrison, who was a top aide to former finance minister George Osborne, Gertjan Vlieghe and Sushil Wadhwani, who both served on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Terms of reference published online said the council would have no policy or decision-making powers, members would be chosen and removed by Hunt, and the board's membership and objectives would be subject to a review after six months. "The Council will act as a consultative forum for the government to be advised on UK and international economics and financial markets," the document said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Sachin Ravikumar and William James Writing by William Schomberg, editing by William James and Paul SandleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe recession next year will be very unsurprising, says JPMorgan's PanditMeera Pandit, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss whether equities are in a bear market rally or have hit a turning point.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPPI data shows inflation deceleration still in early days, says JPMorgan's SantosStephanie Link, Hightower Advisors chief investment strategist, Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, and CNBC's Steve Liesman and Rick Santelli join CNBC's 'Squawk Box'
Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, speaks during the Bank of England's financial stability report news conference, at the Bank of England, London August 4, 2022. And what they can't allow is for the bond market to be overly volatile," said Iain Stealey, CIO of fixed income at JPMorgan Asset Management. U.S. and German 30-year borrowing costs are up just 16 and 33 bps respectively , this month and the contrast highlights the scale of selling gripping Britain's bond market. The unprecedented bond market moves triggered hefty collateral calls on hedging strategies that many funds are still struggling to meet. Bond market volatility has also raised doubts about whether the BoE can press ahead with its plan to sell some of its bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening (QT).
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEnd-of-year price target likely has to be revisited, says Oppenheimer's John StoltzfusJ.P. Morgan Asset Management's Phil Camporeale and Oppenheimer Asset Management's John Stoltzfus, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss businesses working under adversity, expectations for further market dips, and the outlook for earnings season.
There was a modest respite for Britain's battered bond market after the Bank of England said it would start purchasing inflation-linked debt. And MSCI's world stock index was down 0.5% -- moving back towards roughly two-year lows hit last week (.MIWD00000PUS). Emerging market stocks hit their lowest level since April 2020 and are on track for a near-30% tumble year-to-date, its worst year since the 2008 global financial crisis. GILT RESPITEBritish government bond or gilt yields edged lower, having soared on Monday, following the BoE's latest efforts to shore up the battered bond market. The Aussie dollar fell to a 2-1/2-year low of around $0.6248 and the kiwi dollar hit a low of $0.5536.
"Sentiment has also not been helped by a big core global bond sell off led by UK gilts, notwithstanding a flurry of announcements designed to calm UK debt markets," he added. Treasury yields jumped when trading resumed after Monday's U.S. holiday, with 30-year yields up 11 basis points to an almost nine-year high of 3.956%. That outlook is giving dollar bulls another run and has the greenback drifting toward the milestone highs it scaled last month. The Aussie made a 2-1/2 year low of $0.6260 in the Asia session and the kiwi a low of $0.5541. The Japanese yen , at 145.75 per dollar, was within a few pips of the level that prompted official support a couple of weeks ago.
An employee works on the production line of semiconductor wafer at a factory of Jiangsu Azure Corporation Cuoda Group. China has stepped up investment into its chip industry in a bid to be self-reliant in crucial technology needed for electric vehicles, smartphones and more. U.S.-China tensions have pushed Beijing to be more self-sufficient, and that could be a good thing for innovators in China, according to an investment specialist at JPMorgan Asset Management. In the mid-1990s, Chinese companies were mostly mass market manufacturers of "commoditized goods," he added. "I think that the geopolitical tension you're talking about will just actually supercharge that — because China needs to do these things itself, and they will carry on with progress in that area."
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInvestors should still be underweight equities, says JPMorgan's Gabriela SantosAmy Wu Silverman, head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets, and Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to lay out their market strategies ahead of the open.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe think high-quality fixed income is looking more and more attractive, says JPM's LebovitzDavid Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss how an investors can navigate the current market environment and more.
The Federal Reserve's Wednesday rate hike was just the beginning of the world's fight against inflation. A smattering of other central banks have followed suit, while some others took a different course. For now, pain fueled by central banks is likely to continue. The Fed's 75 basis-point rate hike on Wednesday was the first of many such moves this week as the policymakers globally confront surging prices. Three investing experts explained how to adjust your portfolio to benefit from the Fed's rate hike and rising inflation.
Watch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's David Lebovitz
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPMorgan's David LebovitzDavid Lebovitz, JPMorgan Asset Management global market strategist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss how an investors can navigate the current market environment and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed is in grave danger of being too hawkish, says JPMorgan's David KellyJim Caron, global fixed-income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management; David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management; and Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss Fed policy hikes, the rapid rise in the 2-year note, and the looming economic slowdown.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailI just don't think the economy can take a 4.25 to 4.5% rate, says JPM's David KellyJim Caron, global fixed-income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley investment management, David Kelly, chief global strategist at JP Morgan asset management and Katie Nixon, chief investment officer at Northern Trust Wealth Management, join 'Power Lunch' to discuss the Fed announcement of a 75 basis point hike.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Allspring's Ann Miletti and JPMorgan's Phil CamporealeAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity, and Phil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether inflation has peaked, where Miletti is looking for investment deals, and which assets Camporeale is considering investing in.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're positioning defensively because we don't know where Fed is going, says JPMorgan's CamporealeAnn Miletti, Allspring Global Investments head of active equity, and Phil Camporeale, JPMorgan Asset Management portfolio manager, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether inflation has peaked, where Miletti is looking for investment deals, and which assets Camporeale is considering investing in.
Prices keep going up. In the US, the prices of food and non-alcoholic drinks bought for at-home consumption increased by 13.5% in the year to August 2022, per data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Overall inflation, measured by the BLS's consumer-price index, was at 8.3%. Americans have plenty of savings and should keep spending, JPMorgan Asset Management has said. Justin Sullivan/Getty ImagesSources: BLS, Insider, Insider
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