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As a member of the Fed's Board of Governors a decade ago, Powell called certain possible debt default responses by the Fed "loathsome." Accepting defaulted securities as collateral for Fed loans, or swapping "good" federal debt already held by the Fed for impaired debt held by private investors, would be an extreme variation on the theme - yet one that may prove less "loathsome" than the alternative economic collapse some predict would follow a default. To a central bank, with no budget constraint and an elastic time horizon, it's just a matter of waiting out the politicians. Powell joined the Fed in 2012 from a think tank where he focused on debt and deficit issues. A debt default may pose another tough decision for a Fed chair who's motto could well be to never say never.
The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.
That would catapult the United States into recession during the second half of 2023 (Europe and the UK will feel it even earlier). It’s possible that the economy sees disinflation in a way that it hasn’t in previous cycles.”Has the gig economy peaked? So is the height of the gig economy behind us? “It hasn’t changed anything about the odds of a recession,” the chief executive said in response to a question from CNN during a press call. “Down the road, rates going way up, real estate, recession — that’s a whole different issue.
But executives at this week's Milken Institute Global Conference warn that may not be the case, and that markets are ill-prepared for rates to stay higher for longer. Here's the Fed's March meeting dot-plot, which shows where members of the Federal Open Market Committee see rates at the end of 2023. While markets are pricing in a pause in June at 5-5.25%, here's where they believe rates will most likely be in December: 4.25-4.5%. Below, we've compiled what five of them said on Monday about their expectations for Fed policy and financial markets. And as our chief economist likes to say, at higher rates, bodies will continue to float to the top over the course of the summer."
Can Artistry Be Built Into a Machine?
  + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Oliver Whang | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +2 min
One day recently, on a table in Jean Oh’s lab in the Squirrel Hill neighborhood of Pittsburgh, a robot arm was busy at a canvas. Her doctoral student, Peter Schaldenbrand, stood alongside. In recent years, Mr. Schaldenbrand has led an effort to bridge the sim-to-real gap between sophisticated image-generation programs like Stable Diffusion and physical works of art like drawings and paintings. This has mainly been manifest in the project known as FRIDA, the latest iteration of which was rhythmically whirring away in a corner of the lab. The process of moving from language prompts to pixelated images to brushstrokes can be complicated, as the robot must account for “the noise of the real world,” Dr. Oh said.
But ahead of a potential Hollywood writers' strike, the streamer faces two key vulnerabilities. Hollywood is bracing for a possible writers' strike that could begin at midnight PT, following an overwhelming strike authorization by members of the Writers' Guild of America West and East last month. But, by comparison, Prime Video, Netflix, and Discovery+ offer viewers thousands of TV series, according to ReelGood data from the end of 2022. "They're building a long-term brand of Apple TV+, which is something apart from all their devices and their cool software. It would not damage the perception that people have of Apple TV+."
BNY Mellon CEO: Banking crisis 'chapter' is really behind us
  + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBNY Mellon CEO: Banking crisis 'chapter' is really behind usRobin Vince, BNY Mellon president and CEO, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how the chief executive feels about the banking system right now, what Vince makes of the deal between J.P. Morgan and the FDIC, and Vince's viewpoint on international assets.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEmerging markets offer the best risk-reward ratio, strategist saysNow is a good time to revisit allocations in emerging markets, according to Geoffrey Yu, senior EMEA market strategist at BNY Mellon.
REUTERS/Marco BelloNEW YORK, April 27 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) CEO Jamie Dimon sent a clear message to employees this month: get back to the office. The largest U.S. lender's employees inundated an internal messaging forum with criticism after its operating committee posted an edict entitled, "The importance of being together." JPMorgan first called employees back to the office on a rotational basis in mid-2021 after months of pandemic shutdowns. "We don't want to punish everybody because of that, but people agreed to do three days a week; we expect three days a week." Many branch employees, building staff and other workers have reported to offices throughout the pandemic without the option to work remotely.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFinancial conditions 'not that tight' relative to rate hikes, says Dreyfus and Mellon's ReinhartVincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus and Mellon, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his expectation from the next Federal Reserve meeting and more.
But ahead of a potential Hollywood writers' strike, the streamer faces two key vulnerabilities. Hollywood is bracing for a possible writers' strike that could begin on May 1, following an overwhelming strike authorization by members of the Writers' Guild of America West and East earlier this month. But, by comparison, Prime Video, Netflix, and Discovery+ offer viewers thousands of TV series, according to ReelGood data from the end of 2022. "They're building a long-term brand of Apple TV+, which is something apart from all their devices and their cool software. It would not damage the perception that people have of Apple TV+."
Driven by the recent AI boom, companies are raiding top college campuses for rare technical talent. She's currently on leave from her Stanford AI Ph.D. program to focus on Moonhub. In 2011, new AI Ph.D. graduates took jobs in the tech industry and academia in about equal measure. But since then, the majority of new grads have headed to the AI industry, with nearly double the percentage of AI Ph.D. grads taking industry jobs versus academic roles in 2021, according to Stanford's Institute for Human-Centered AI's 2023 AI Index Report. "All AI companies have roles for people with Ph.D.s and without," said Attaluri, the soon-to-be researcher at DeepMind.
Companies with healthy balance sheets and access to low or no-cost funding are likely to outperform. Ferguson is a fund manager for the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund at Newton Investment Management. Across all sectors, Ferguson believes that companies with strong balance sheets and good liquidity will widely outperform their peers, especially in the face of a looming economic slowdown. Strong balance sheets in particular can help businesses endure turbulent times, since companies aren't forced to issue — and eventually pay back — a lot of high-cost debt. Likewise, Ferguson is currently bullish on the energy sector due to its incredibly strong balance sheets and focus on return of capital versus growth.
[1/2] A Tesla Model 3 vehicle drives on autopilot along the 405 highway in Westminster, California, U.S., March 16, 2022. Tesla denied liability for the accident and said in a court filing that Hsu used Autopilot on city streets, despite a user manual warning against doing so. "This case should be a wakeup call to Tesla owners: they can't over-rely on Autopilot, and they really need to be ready to take control and Tesla is not a self-driving system," he said. The Hsu trial unfolded in Los Angeles Superior Court over three weeks, with testimony from three Tesla engineers. The main question in Autopilot cases was who is responsible for an accident while a car is in driver-assistant Autopilot mode - a human driver, the machine, or both?
First-quarter GDP could be quite strong: BNY Mellon's Meskin
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFirst-quarter GDP could be quite strong: BNY Mellon's MeskinSonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserve's next meeting, Friday morning's PMI data, and more.
Watch CNBC's full interview with BNY Mellon IM's Sonia Meskin
  + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with BNY Mellon IM's Sonia MeskinSonia Meskin, head of U.S. macro at BNY Mellon Investment Management, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the Federal Reserve's next meeting, Friday morning's PMI data, and more.
Mr. Chiu, an internationally acclaimed pianist, often performed for their guests in the large, round music room. “Now there are a lot of organizations bringing together the arts, so we don’t need to maintain a separate venue,” said Ms. Esposito, 63, a corporate innovations consultant and an artist. Mr. Chiu, 58, also spends about a week every month in Pittsburgh, where he is a professor of piano at Carnegie Mellon University. “We spent a lot of time looking at and bidding on houses that were right on or near the water,” Ms. Esposito said. “We are looking at this long term,” Ms. Esposito said.
We're 'slow walking' to the recession, says BNY Mellon's Levine
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're 'slow walking' to the recession, says BNY Mellon's LevineJoe Terranova, Virtus Investment Partners, and Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss Tesla's market performance post-earnings and overall markets.
Wall Street aces its real-life stress test
  + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
One flaw in this plan is that the Federal Reserve, which designs the stress test, has tended to assume that when bad times come, interest rates would fall, not rise. Because their clients also fear sudden shifts in interest rates, they call on fixed-income securities desks to help offlay the risk. One clear outcome of higher interest rates is that banks are lending less, and more carefully. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @johnsfoley on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSLarge U.S. banks reported their first-quarter earnings between April 14 and April 19. Both said that trading revenue had declined from first quarter 2022, but it was substantially higher than the last three months of the year.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Virtus' Joe Terranova and BNY Mellon's Alicia LevineJoe Terranova, Virtus Investment Partners, and Alicia Levine, BNY Mellon, join 'Closing Bell' to discuss Tesla's market performance post-earnings and overall markets.
REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, a senior official at Fidelity Investments told a European equities conference on Wednesday. The "biggest threat" to the economy is a "true and visible credit crunch", Romain Boscher, chairman of the board at Fidelity Investments, which has about $4.5 trillion of assets under management, told the conference. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.
REUTERS/Brittany Hosea-Small/File Photo/File PhotoPARIS, April 19 (Reuters) - The biggest threat to the economic outlook is a credit squeeze that has not finished filtering through the financial system, two senior asset managers told a European equities conference on Wednesday. For asset managers, hedge funds and traders gathered in Paris for the Tradetech equity trading conference, recession risks were a key talking point. Higher rates should be a permanent expectation, he said. Dhar said if credit conditions tightened enough, the U.S. would slip into a recession in the second half of the year. Harsher economic conditions and higher rates have changed priorities for asset manager portfolios, both said.
REUTERS/Dado RuvicLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Crypto firms have been left scrambling to find banking partners after the collapse of three crypto-friendly lenders in the U.S. last month, creating a risk their business will become concentrated in smaller financial institutions. Mainstream banks have become increasingly wary of crypto clients following a series of high-profile collapses, including the bankruptcy of major exchange FTX in November last year, and a lack of regulation. "Crypto and Web3 start-ups are telling us they simply cannot get a business bank account," said Marcus Foster, head of crypto policy at Coadec, a body representing UK start-ups. A spokesperson for ING said the bank does not "target or focus actively on crypto firms" so its exposure is "very limited." But for smaller crypto start-ups, securing a banking partner could be more difficult, said Ricardo Mico, the U.S. CEO of Banxa (BNXA.V), a payment and compliance infrastructure provider for crypto.
Morning Bid: Global pulse picks up, rates creep higher again
  + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWith investors largely assuming recession ahead, an accelerating global economic pulse challenges the narrative and is seeing interest rates tick back higher again as the March banking wobble subsides. With March starts and permits numbers out later, there was also signs of a troughing in the U.S. housing market. Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April as a dearth of previously owned homes and falling mortgage rates boosted demand. Wall St futures were higher again on Tuesday, with European bourses and most Asia indices advancing too. With euro zone and UK rate expectations pushing higher too, the dollar slipped back again against the euro and sterling .
The dollar's position as a top reserve currency, however, may be somewhat less certain. They pointed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as a catalyst for the currency's drop-off as a reserve currency. "We believe the erosion of the dollar's reserve currency status has accelerated in recent years at an alarming pace," Eurizon said. Here's the takeaway forecasters seem to agree on: The dollar's losing some ground as a global reserve currency, but none at all as far as international trade. What's your outlook for the dollar's role on the world stage in 2023 and beyond?
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