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Tyler Richey called the S&P 500's surge to 6,000 back in February. AdvertisementBack in February, Tyler Richey laid out an argument for why the S&P 500 could climb all the way to 6,000. The Dow Jones Transportation Index had surged into the green for the year alongside the S&P 500, a sign that the economy was in a good place. And the S&P 500's relative-strength index had been above 70 for three weeks, which historically meant a rally could go on for much longer. Louis FedRichey's downside target is around 4,800, which would mean a 21% setback for the S&P 500 and a reversion to valuation norms.
Persons: Tyler Richey, Charles Schwab, Richey, isn't, Louis, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Rob Arnott, There's, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Organizations: Dow Jones Transportation, JPMorgan, UBS, Trump, Board, Treasury, Consumers, Wall, Research
As inflation cools and the Fed lowers its benchmark rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down in 2025. 5-Year Mortgage Rate TrendsHere's how 30-year and 15-year mortgage rates have trended over the last five years, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates are determined by a variety of different factors, including larger economic trends, Federal Reserve policy, your state's current mortgage rates, the type of loan you're getting, and your personal financial profile. But now that inflation has decelerated and the Fed has started cutting rates, mortgage rates are expected to ease. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: homebuyers, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's, Fannie Mae Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, Mortgage Research Center, Zillow, ARM, Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veterans Affairs, Mortgage, Association Locations: U.S, Chevron
The East Brother Light Station is on a small island off Point Molate in the strait between San Francisco and San Pablo bays in Richmond, California — and they're looking for an innkeeper. The listing states that East Brother Light Station, Inc's ideal candidates for this job would be a couple. It's really hard work, but it's very rewarding," Tom Butt, former mayor of Richmond and the president of the nonprofit, tells CNBC Make It. Candidates should have hospitality experience and, according to the job posting, high-quality culinary experience and maid services for inn guests are also required. The East Brother Light Station is located on a small island.
Persons: Tom Butt, Butt Organizations: Brother Light, East Brother Light, CNBC, Coast Guard Merchant Mariner, Coast Guard Locations: San Francisco, San Pablo, Richmond , California, Richmond
Friday's jobs report virtually cements that the Federal Reserve will approve an interest rate cut when it meets later this month. LaVorgna, who served as a senior economist during Donald Trump's first presidential term and could serve in the White House again, wasn't alone in his skepticism about a Fed cut. Appearing along with LaVorgna on CNBC, Jason Furman, himself a former White House economist under Barack Obama, also expressed caution, particularly on inflation. Furman noted that the recent pace of average hourly earnings increases is more consistent with an inflation rate of 3.5%, not the 2% the Fed prefers. "I've no doubt the Fed will cut again, but when they cut again after December is anyone's guess, and I think it will take more of an increase in unemployment," he added.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, LaVorgna, Donald Trump's, Chris Rupkey, bank's, Jason Furman, Barack Obama, Furman Organizations: US Federal Reserve, New York Times, Jazz, Lincoln Center, Federal Reserve, Fed, Nikko Securities, FWDBONDS, LaVorgna, CNBC, White Locations: New York, Nikko
Some say OpenAI's o1 models are close to artificial general intelligence. Most people won't notice when AGI ultimately arrives, some AI experts say. AdvertisementSome say o1 shows how we might reach artificial general intelligence — a still theoretical form of AI that meets or surpasses human intelligence — without realizing it. "Most folks don't have a lot of tasks that bump up against limits of human intelligence, so won't see it." Tier 3, or "Artificial Focused Intelligence," is an AI that outperforms average human experts in specific, intellectually demanding tasks.
Persons: AGI, OpenAI, , Wharton, Ethan Mollick, Mollick, we've, That's, Yann LeCun, Lex Fridman's, It's Organizations: o1, AMI
The unemployment rate, however, edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The unemployment rate rose as the labor force participation rate moved lower and the labor force itself declined. Other officials have said they see additional interest rate cuts as being likely but subject to changes in the economic data. At the same time, the October jobs report and various other reports have pointed to a labor market that is still growing but slowing. According to the BLS, household employment rose by 174,000 on the month even as the labor force contracted by 193,000.
Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Traders
Trump isn’t president yet, but he’s starting to act like itPresident Joe Biden meets with President-elect Donald Trump in the Oval Office on Nov. 13. The President-elect will join French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris this weekend for the reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral. In other words, Trump is crowding out President Joe Biden as he winds down his term and steadily recedes from public view. Insurer halts anesthesia payment policy after backlashAnthem Blue Cross Blue Shield has reversed a decision to limit reimbursements for anesthesia during surgery and medical procedures based on time limits it had set. The policy would have capped the length of time anesthesia can be covered during procedures in Connecticut, New York and Missouri beginning in February.
Persons: Donald Trump overshadows Joe Biden, Brigham Young University’s, Trump, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Saul Loeb, Donald Trump won’t, Emmanuel Macron, Justin Trudeau, , , Newt Gingrich, Biden, hasn’t, Brian Thompson, we’ve, Taylor Lorenz, Tobita Chow, Read, Jake Retzlaff, Manischewitz, matzo, Greg Rosenstein, “ BYJew, ” Mazel tov, Richie Duchon, Elizabeth Robinson Organizations: Police, Getty, Notre Dame Cathedral, Canadian, Republican, ➡️ Investigators, Greyhound, ➡️ Police, New York, UnitedHealth Group, New York Times, Washington Post, Labor Statistics, Gallup, BYU, Nike, Adidas, Brigham, Cougars, NBC Locations: Paris, Mexico, Canada, Gaza, New York City, Atlanta, New York, Manhattan, Bluesky, Connecticut , New York, Missouri
“It’s been a really good bond,” Michelle told CNN Travel during a Zoom call with her friend virtually alongside her. How lucky is she?’”Snail mailMichelle, who is from the US, and Leonor, from Portugal, sent letters to each other every month for decades. While it would be decades before they would meet in person again, Leonor and Michelle never stopped communicating. Courtesy Michelle AndersonNow in their 60s, Leonor and Michelle have stayed as close as ever since that visit two years ago. Leonor and Michelle each have two children, and they were thrilled when their daughters met up in Barcelona, where Leonor’s daughter lives.
Persons: Leonor Drago, she’d, , Leonor, Moura, Michelle Anderson, “ It’s, ” Michelle, , Michelle, Michelle’s, wasn’t, ” Leonor, , , Leonor P, Drago Michelle, I’m, they’d, Billy Joel’s, it’s, Rich, Filipe, Michelle Anderson Leonor, ‘ I’m, ’ ” Michelle, we’ve, I’ve, “ We’re, ” She’s Organizations: CNN, CNN Travel, JFK International Airport, Newark Airport, of, Metropolitan Museum of Art Locations: Alentejo, Portugal, United States, France, Washington Depot , Connecticut, Portuguese, Moura, Algarve, New, , Spain, , New York, Paris, London, Rhode Island, of Liberty, Brooklyn, Central Park, Macy’s, Michelle’s, Barcelona, Germany
At 4.1%, the unemployment rate remains historically low. (For context: The unemployment rate never dropped below 5% in the 1970s or the 1980s.) Expectations were for the unemployment rate to have climbed from 4.1% to 4.2%, with 214,000 jobs added. “With the current jobs market cooling down quite a bit from the Great Resignation, and with inflation, people don’t feel secure making the leap” to new roles, Wigert said. Not all economists agree that the U.S. labor market is experiencing unusual tensions — and what frictions do exist have, in certain cases, immediately identifiable causes.
Persons: Dan Hevia, ” Hevia, Hevia, “ I’m, , Guy Berger, , ” Berger, what’s, Gallup, Ben Wigert, Wigert, they’re, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Harris, Trump’s, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Thomas Ryan Organizations: New, NBC News, Labor Statistics, of Labor Statistics, Glass, Gallup, , Biden, Trump, Capital Economics, Vanguard, Locations: New York City, U.S
That won't happen for another 45 days, but Donald Trump, the president-in-waiting, isn't shying away from acting like the president-in-reality. This weekend, Trump will join French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris for the reopening of Notre Dame Cathedral five years after it was devastated by fire. “Given the weakness of the current president and the speed at which things develop in the modern world, Trump is, in effect, a presumptive president,” said Newt Gingrich, a Republican former House speaker and a Trump ally. But Trump and a few of his predecessors haven’t hesitated to dip a toe into real-time crises if so moved. When President George W. Bush invited Obama to a meeting of world leaders devoted to the downturn, Obama declined.
Persons: Donald Trump, isn't, Trump, Joe Biden, Biden, , , he’s, , you’re, Jared Huffman, Emmanuel Macron, Trump’s, Hunter, , Newt Gingrich, hasn’t, elect’s, haven’t, you’ve, ” Sean Spicer, He’s, Justin Trudeau, Trudeau, “ Trump, We’ve, we’ve, ” Barbara Perry, Perry, they’ll, Dwight D, Eisenhower, Syngman Rhee, Barack Obama, George W, Bush, Obama, George Bush Organizations: WASHINGTON, Trump, White House, Notre Dame Cathedral, White, Republican, Biden, Canadian, Mar, University of Virginia’s, Center for Public Affairs, South Korean, Washington Post Locations: Mexico, Canada, Gaza, Paris, Notre, Saharan Africa, Indiana, China, U.S, Trump’s Florida, United States, Korea, Middle
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs report signals Fed will keep cutting and likely should not, says Unlimited CEO Bob ElliottDavid Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, and Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO and CIO, join CNBC's 'Closing Bell Overtime' to discuss market outlooks.
Persons: Bob Elliott David Zervos, Bob Elliott, CNBC's Organizations: Jefferies
Fed fund futures rally on November jobs report
  + stars: | 2024-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed fund futures rally on November jobs reportCNBC's Rick Santelli joins 'Power Lunch' with the latest news from the bond market.
Persons: Rick Santelli
The job market's strength in October was clouded due to hurricanes and strikes impacting data collection. AdvertisementThe new jobs report gives the Federal Reserve better information about the state of the labor market after October's report was hampered by the effects of hurricanes and strikes. Friday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed October's preliminary gain was revised up — from 12,000 jobs to 36,000. AdvertisementThe Fed's two most recent interest-rate decisions were both cuts, a 50-basis-point cut in September and a 25-basis-point cut in November. Americans will know if there will be one more rate cut this year on December 18.
Persons: Ernie Tedeschi, Tedeschi Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Yale
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will likely cut 25 bps in December then be in a wait-and-see mode, says Roger FergusonFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the November jobs report, impact on the Fed's inflation fight, rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Roger Ferguson Former Federal
Next week's inflation data could derail a market that appears to be priced for perfection, ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting later this month. To be sure, with some more risky parts of the market rallying, some investors worry the market is getting too frothy. Productivity final (Q3) Earnings: AutoZone Wednesday Dec. 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (November) 8:30 a.m. Initial Claims (12/07) 8:30 a.m. Producer Price Index (November) Earnings: Broadcom , Costco Wholesale Friday Dec. 13 8:30 a.m. Import Price Index (November)
Persons: it's, Jay Woods, Oppenheimer, , Tom Lee, CNBC's, Capital's Woods, Woods, Cathie, Price Organizations: Fed, CPI, Freedom Capital, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Oracle, Adobe, Broadcom, Innovation, American Association of, Investors, Labor, Costco, Price Locations: Santa Claus
AdvertisementTrump's choice of NASA Administrator suggests he wants to shake up the agency's status quo. More importantly, though, he's on the cutting edge of the new commercial space age, where private companies are becoming the biggest actors in space. AdvertisementThe nomination, which still has to be confirmed by the Senate, suggests that Trump wants to shake things up at NASA. That's the slow-moving status quo that Trump might aim to shake up. In places like Alabama and Southern California, a status quo NASA fuels the work of legacy aerospace contractors like Boeing and Northrop Grumman.
Persons: Jared Isaacman, Donald Trump, Trump, Jared Isaacman —, he's, Jim Bridenstine, Bill Nelson, Leroy Chiao, It's, Elon Musk, Isaacman, Artemis, Steve Seipel, Chiao, Abhi Tripathi, Tripathi, Northrop Grumman, Jared Organizations: NASA, SpaceX, Senate, Space, Trump, Orion, Kennedy Space Center, UC Berkeley Space Sciences, Boeing, Northrop, Trump White House Locations: Hawthorne , California, Isaacman, Florida, Alabama, Southern California
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 for the month, compared to an upwardly revised 36,000 in October and the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 214,000. The unemployment rate, however, edged higher to 4.2%, as expected. The unemployment rate rose as the labor force participation rate edged lower and the labor force itself declined. The survey of households, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, painted a similar picture as the establishment survey that provides the headline payrolls count. According to the BLS, household employment rose by 174,000 on the month even as the labor force contracted by 193,000.
Persons: Nonfarm, Dow Jones, Job, Jerome Powell Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Stock, Traders
ET, The yield on the 10-year Treasury was higher by less than one basis point to 4.1857%. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield was up more than two basis points to 4.1683%. It's expected to show that the U.S. economy added 214,000 jobs in November, a step up from the 12,000 jobs added in October. "The labor market is better, and the downside risks appear to be less in the labor market. So the good news is that we can afford to be a little more cautious as we try to find neutral," Powell said.
Persons: Milton, Kathy Jones, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boeing, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNovember jobs report shows hiring and consumers are in 'good shape,' says PNC's Gus FaucherGus Faucher, chief economist at PNC, joins CNBC's 'Power Lunch' to discuss the latest jobs report, economic outlooks, and more.
Persons: Gus Faucher Gus Faucher Organizations: PNC
Meanwhile, the S & P 500 and the blue-chip Dow notched more record highs this week, powered by continuous strength from technology shares. Hartnett, a Bank of America investment strategist, said "froth" is gathering in crypto as bitcoin now exceeds a $2 trillion market value. The strategist said the risk of an "overshoot" is now "high" as the S & P 500 "melts" toward 6,666, around 10% from current levels. The Wall Street firm's Savita Subramanian had set her 2025 S & P 500 target at 6,666. The S & P 500 hit a new record again on Friday even as a better-than-expected jobs report could call into question whether the Federal Reserve should continue lowering rates in 2025.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Dow, Hartnett, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed should not cut rates this month, says JPMorgan's Bill EigenBill Eigen, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO of Absolute Return Fixed Income Group, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the Fed's inflation fight, what to expect from the November jobs report, and more.
Persons: Bill Eigen Bill Eigen Organizations: JPMorgan, Management
Gold heads for second weekly fall; focus on U.S. payrolls data
  + stars: | 2024-12-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold U.S. dollar bullion coins are seen in this photo illustration taken in Moscow, Russia, August 4, 2017. Gold prices edged higher on Friday but headed for a second straight week of decline, while market participants braced for the U.S. payrolls data that is expected to provide cues on the interest rate cut trajectory. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,638.66 per ounce by 0346 GMT after hitting its lowest since Nov. 26 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,661.00. Both metals are set for second straight weekly losses.
Persons: Jigar Trivedi, Jerome Powell Organizations: U.S, Reliance Securities Locations: Moscow, Russia, U.S
“Which suggests that the labor market is still doing quite well,” Faucher said. That beat economists’ expectations of 7.5 million job openings for October, according to consensus estimates from FactSet. Layoff announcements, jobless claims tick higherThe weekly jobless claims data also is telling another story about the labor market: Employers have pulled back on hiring. “Overall, we still have got a tight labor market and we see that layoffs are historically low right now,” Faucher said. However, the coming weeks and months could shift the narrative for the labor market, inflation and the overall economy.
Persons: CNN —, , , Dan, Gus Faucher, , ” Faucher, they’re, Claudia Sahm, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, ” Brett Ryan, Organizations: CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Statistics, Dan North, Allianz Trade’s, North, PNC Financial Services Group, Labor, Department of Labor, Employers, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, BLS Locations: North America, FactSet
Retirees report lower levels of well-being than they did four years ago, according to a recent survey from the Employee Benefits Research Institute. As rampant inflation has eaten into retirees' spending power, for instance, a much larger portion of them, 68%, report having outstanding credit card debt. But in many cases, retirees are realizing that they didn't plan as well as they could have. Enroll in your workplace retirement account and stay thereHigh standard of living and satisfaction in retirement are both highly correlated with participation in workplace retirement plans, EBRI's data shows. None of which is to say that changing jobs will hurt your chances at a happy retirement.
Persons: program's, Bridget Bearden, you've, Jack VanDerhei, Bearden Organizations: Research, Social Security, Morningstar, CNBC
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin took a breather after catapulting above $100,000 for the first time a day earlier, and even sceptics now expect a crypto-friendly Trump administration to feed an extended rally. "So long as the unemployment rate doesn't fall back to 4.0%, markets should be comfortable about leaning towards a rate cut this month." For now, the European Central Bank isn't expected to react to heightened political turmoil in Europe when it meets next week. The euro bloc currency was on track to post a loss this week, the fourth in the last five weeks. But comments from typically dovish policymaker Toyoaki Nakamura that he's not opposed to rate hikes helped push the currency higher on Thursday.
Persons: bitcoin, Trump, Sean Callow, Emmanuel Macron, Michel Barnier, Donald Trump's, Toyoaki Nakamura, he's, Yoon Suk Yeol Organizations: steadied, U.S ., InTouch, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Traders, Bank of Japan's, South Korean, Australian Locations: South Korea, payrolls, France, Europe, Asia
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