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☆ Why Trump should be worried about what the stock market is saying
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s why Trump, who closely follows the stock market and obsessed over it as president, should be nervous about the recent trend on Wall Street. If the market goes down, the incumbent party gets replaced,” Stovall told CNN in a phone interview Monday. Market indicator was right in 2016 and 2020Vice President Kamala Harris should feel relieved the market has seen solid gains. In 2016, the S&P 500 dipped 2.2% in the lead-up to Trump’s matchup with the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. Yet there’s another market indicator that offers a reason for hope for the Harris camp.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, CFRA Research’s Sam Stovall, Trump, ” Stovall, ”, Stovall, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, Dwight Eisenhower, Adlai Stevenson, Hillary Clinton, Clinton, Obama, Joe Biden, Hubert Humphrey, Richard Nixon, Harris, Humphrey, Jimmy Carter, Carter, “, Doug Ramsey, Dow, We’re, ” Ramsey Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, “, CNN, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Trump, Democratic, State, Democratic Party, Investment, Federal, Dow Jones Locations: New York, Chicago, Vietnam, Iran, Monday’s

Election officials across the US – particularly in swing states – have pledged to uphold the integrity of the vote and urged voters not to be misled by conspiracy theories. “Here in Georgia, it is easy to vote and hard to cheat,” Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said Monday. He has alleged that voting by noncitizens is a widespread problem, that there’s no verification for overseas or military ballots, that election officials are using early voting to commit fraud and that massive swaths of mail-in ballots are illegitimate. However, supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris are far more confident, with 90% saying the election will be run smoothly, compared to 57% of Trump supporters. Harris supporters are also more confident than Trump supporters that it will be clear who won the election after all the votes are counted, by an 85% to 58% split.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, –, Brad Raffensperger, ” Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris Organizations: CNN, American, Trump, noncitizens, of Columbia, Pew Research Center Locations: Georgia

☆ U.S. Senate Election Live Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Tracking the most competitive statesDemocrats will have to defend several key seats to have a chance of keeping the Senate. The win targets below are based on what each party needs to reach 51 seats, assuming they win the races they are expected to win most easily.

Organizations: Senate

☆ Nevada Presidential Election Results 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The most diverse battleground state, Nevada has more registered nonpartisan voters than Democrats or Republicans, and Democrats have been winning presidential elections here by smaller and smaller margins. The relatively small number of electoral votes make it less likely to be decisive.

Organizations: Democrats, Republicans Locations: Nevada

☆ Moreno will defeat Brown in Ohio, CNN projects, in key pickup for GOP
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Simone Pathe | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Republican Bernie Moreno will defeat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, CNN projects, a key pickup for the GOP in a state that’s been trending its way and putting the GOP one step closer to securing the Senate majority. Moreno emerged as the GOP nominee earlier this year after Democrats helped prop him up in the primary, believing he’d be the weakest opponent. Moreno’s GOP allies also tried hitting Brown over transgender athletes in an effort to cast the senator as too liberal for the state. (Brown and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee went up with a response ad on the issue that says the senator agrees with GOP Gov. But Moreno had significant outside firepower from GOP groups that helped boost his candidacy in the fall.

Persons: Bernie Moreno, Democratic Sen, Sherrod Brown, Moreno, Donald Trump, he’d, Brown, —, Kamala Harris, Mike DeWine, ”, Ohioans Organizations: CNN, Democratic, GOP, Buckeye State, Republican, Senate, Democratic Senatorial, Gov Locations: nonjudicial, Buckeye, Cleveland

☆ Wisconsin U.S. Senate Election Results 2024: Baldwin vs. Hovde
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( June Kim | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, has been a low-key fixture in Wisconsin politics for decades. Republicans nominated Eric Hovde, a banker with money to finance his own campaign. A late advertising blitz by Mr. Hovde narrowed the race, surprising Democrats.

Persons: Tammy Baldwin, Eric Hovde, Hovde Organizations: Democrat Locations: Wisconsin

☆ Michigan Eighth Congressional District Election Results 2024: McDonald Rivet vs. Junge
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Leanne Abraham | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

With the retirement of Representative Dan Kildee, Democrats face a tough battle to hold this swing district in central Michigan. Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet has stressed that she would protect abortion rights, while Republican Paul Junge has emphasized a crackdown on the border. Mr. Junge has previously made two unsuccessful runs for Congress.

Persons: Dan Kildee, Kristen McDonald, Republican Paul Junge, Junge Organizations: Republican, Congress Locations: Michigan

☆ What top financial advisors are telling investors about the market impact of the U.S. presidential election
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Early in-person voting for the 2024 US presidential election began in Virginia, South Dakota and Minnesota. - | Afp | Getty ImagesMany investors worry their investments may be affected by the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. Forward four-year returns were positive for Democrats in 11 out of 12 terms, compared to Republicans who had positive returns in nine out of 12. watch nowHowever, the presidential contest could usher in short-term volatility, particularly if a winner is not declared right away. Yet even with deregulation, record production and higher oil prices, the energy sector was down 8.4% during Trump's presidential term, according to Adam's research.

Persons: Mark Motley, Jimmy Carter, George W . Bush, Motley, Joseph Veranth, Veranth, Larry Adam, Raymond James . Long, Adam, Donald Trump Organizations: Bozeman Government, Afp, Getty, U.S, Morningstar, Democrats, Foster & Motley, Dana Investment, CNBC, — Locations: Arlington , Virginia, Virginia , South Dakota, Minnesota, Cincinnati, Waukesha , Wisconsin, U.S

☆ Goldman's election scenario probabilities and how the S&P 500 will react
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Goldman Sachs has modeled out some election outcomes, along with how the S & P 500 will react, ahead of the results. Trump wins and Republicans sweep A 25% likelihood, with the S & P 500 set to rise 3%. Trump wins, but the government is divided A 30% likelihood, with the S & P 500 set to gain 1.5%. This scenario will still be positive for markets, with the S & P 500 set to gain 1.5% afterward, the note read. However, investors could step in and buy the dip on the S & P 500, the firm said.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Harris Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Trump, Republican, Nasdaq, Democratic Locations: Wednesday's, cyclicals

☆ Maryland U.S. Senate Election Results 2024: Alsobrooks vs. Hogan
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

Reliably blue Maryland should not be in play. But this race is one to watch because Larry Hogan, the moderate former Republican governor, is running. Democrats nominated Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County Executive who is a former state’s attorney.

Persons: Larry Hogan, Angela Alsobrooks, Prince George’s Organizations: Republican Locations: Maryland

☆ 40% of investors are considering this money move after the election: It may cost them 'really great gains,' says market strategist
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If this week's presidential election has you nervously eyeing your finances, you're not alone. Consider research published earlier this year from Carson Research Group, which tracked the performance of the S&P 500 under every presidency since 1953. If you followed the same strategy, but only invested with Democrats, you'd have about $60,000. "If you got out of the market because you didn't like the person who was in office, you gave up some really great gains," says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group. "However, the anxiety and fear that's coming from it — it's still worth thinking about addressing that directly."

Persons: Ryan Detrick, Dan Egan Organizations: Ottawa Hills High School, —, Carson Research Group, Republican, you'd, Carson Locations: Grand Rapids , Michigan

S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures were flat. Goldman Sachs predicts that a Trump win and Republican sweep of Congress would spark a 3% pop in the S&P 500. Even a Trump win and a divided Congress would cause about a 1.5% gain, the bank predicts. On the other hand, a Harris win with a divided Congress would cause a 1.5% drop in the S&P 500, the bank told its clients. The stock market staged a broad rally Tuesday before the election results were in with the S&P 500 gaining 1.2%, bringing the benchmark's 2024 gains to more than 21%.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Goldman Sachs, Harris, Trump, Jason Trennert, Dow Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, America, Investors, Republican, Democratic, Trump, Traders Locations: Kentucky, Indiana

☆ As Americans head to the polls, social media companies are in the spotlight
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Ashley Capoot | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +15 min

Beata Zawrzel | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesWith Americans heading to the polls on Election Day, social media companies like Meta , TikTok, X and YouTube are under intense pressure to handle what's expected to be a flood of disinformation, heightened by the rise of artificial intelligence. The video amassed hundreds of thousands of views within hours after it was posted on Elon Musk's social media platform X. And TikTok failed to catch ads containing false election information despite its ban on political advertising, according to an October report from Global Witness. On Facebook and Instagram, Meta said it's adding fact-check labels to election content that's been debunked. In sharing dozens of posts a day on X, Musk regularly amplifies false election information to his more than 200 million followers.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald J, Beata Zawrzel, It's, Hillary Clinton, Meta, it's, aren't, Mark Zuckerberg, Celal, that's, Adam Mosseri, Mosseri, we've, National Intelligence Avril Haines, TikTok, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Tesla, Elon Musk, Carlos Barria Carlos Barria, Reuters X, Musk, Trump, YouTube Omar Marques, Evan Spiegel, Joe Scarnici, Brendan Mcdermid Organizations: Trump, Twitter, Nurphoto, Meta, YouTube, Russian, Democratic, Infrastructure Security Agency, FBI, National Intelligence, Elon, stoke, CNBC, NBC News, Global, Washington DC, Anadolu, Getty, Reuters, USA, Associated Press, Facebook, Instagram, Election, Democracy Works, TikTok's, AP, Republican, U.S, Madison, REUTERS, Lightrocket, Google, Snap Inc, Barker, Vote.org, NBC, Poynter Institute, Traders, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Russia, Iran, China, Pennsylvania, CISA, North Carolina, Dirksen, Washington, United States, U.S, PolitiFact, New York, Santa Monica , California, New York City

☆ Google and Meta are blocking political ads to combat misinformation. Some experts say it’s too late
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Clare Duffy | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +11 min

Meta last week began blocking advertisers from creating or running new ads about US social issues, elections or politics across its platforms, including Facebook and Instagram. But experts say that previous moves by social media companies — such as cutting their own internal safety teams — could undercut their current efforts. Former President Donald Trump and many of his supporters have already made repeated false claims that Democrats are cheating in the election. But since then, those companies have made cuts to those teams and walked back policies designed to restrict false claims about politics and elections. Last year, they said they would no longer remove false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

Persons: TikTok, Elon Musk, Donald Trump, What’s, Twitter, Musk, we’ve, ”, Sacha Haworth, ” Imran Ahmed, “ It’s, —, Trump, Helene, Harris, Ahmed’s CCDH, Ahmed, ” Ahmed, Leslie Miller, ” Mann, X, Biden, Kamala, Kamala Harris Organizations: New, New York CNN, Facebook, Google, Meta, Capitol, Tech, Center, CNN, Biden, Trump, YouTube, ” Meta, Associated Press, Integrity Locations: New York, Milton, U.S

☆ Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will win reelection and defeat Democrat Colin Allred, CNN projects
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Eric Bradner | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Texas Sen. Ted Cruz will win reelection to a third term, CNN projects, defeating Democratic challenger Rep. Colin Allred and denying Democrats one of their best chances to mitigate potential losses elsewhere. The Longhorn State has long been a Republican stronghold, with the GOP winning every statewide election there since 1994. Allred, a former NFL linebacker who defeated GOP Rep. Pete Sessions to win his House seat in 2018, was seen as a viable challenger. He attacked Cruz for voting against the bipartisan border deal and featured testimonials from border law enforcement officers in his own ads. This year, he tried to tie Allred to the Biden-Harris administration on inflation, the border wall and transgender issues.

Persons: Texas Sen, Ted Cruz, Colin Allred, Allred, Pete Sessions, Cruz, Kate Cox, Beto O’Rourke, Harris, ”, defund, Barack, Donald Trump’s, Trump Organizations: CNN, Texas, Democratic, Longhorn State, Republican, GOP, NFL, GOP Rep, Republicans, Democrat, Biden Locations: Texas

☆ European markets set for lackluster open as traders focus on U.S. Election Day
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

European stocks are heading for a lackluster start to the trading day as global markets gear up for the U.S. presidential election Tuesday, with the vote too close to call between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index is expected to open 15 points lower at 8,177, Germany's DAX down 12 points at 19,149, France's CAC down 1 point at 7,374 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 73 points at 34,358, according to data from IG. Earnings are set to come from Saudi Aramco, Adecco, Schaeffler, Deutsche Post DHL, Zalando, Hugo Boss, Bouygues, Ørsted, Vestas Wind and Fresenius Medical Care. Market attention will be focused on which party dominates Congress as a result of the U.S. election, given that a sweep by Republicans or Democrats could contribute to drastic spending changes or a big revamp of tax policy. Follow CNBC's 2024 election live blog here.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Germany's DAX, Hugo Boss, Bouygues, Ørsted Organizations: U.S, France's CAC, IG, Saudi Aramco, Adecco, Deutsche Post DHL, Zalando, Fresenius, Republicans Locations: Saudi

☆ 10-year yield to 4.5%? Rates could also see a big move on the election outcome
▼ + stars: | 2024-11-05 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bond market, which has already seen dramatic moves leading up to the U.S. presidential election, could see even bigger price action depending on the outcome. One big theme investors are considering is the possibility of a Donald Trump win and higher bond yields that could follow. "I expect them to be worried that Trump would enact all those tax cuts, and I think bond yields would rise." US10Y 3M mountain 10-year Treasury The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield surged 50 basis points in October, marking the biggest monthly increase since September 2022. "There is room for rates to move in either direction depending on [the] election outcome."

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Jeremy Siegel, Kamala Harris, Stephanie Roth, Roth, Siegel Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, White, Republican, Senate, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Trump, Wolfe Research

Members of the Proud Boys rally against vaccination mandates in New York City on Nov. 20, 2021. The Proud Boys of Columbus recently posted a claim that they had enrolled members as poll watchers and poll workers. But Proud Boys members are clearly active. The Proud Boys chapters are decentralized, but they've spent the time since Jan. 6 wedging themselves into other right-wing issues. The Proud Boys messages were sent over Telegram, which has become the preferred platform of far-right groups, where they can spread their content freely.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, ”, Donald Trump’s, Enrique Tarrio, Stephanie Keith, Marjorie Taylor Greene, they've, Stewart Rhodes, Rhodes, —, Mitt Romney's, Tucker Carlson, Liz Cheney wouldn’t, “ Organizations: PHILADELPHIA, U.S, Capitol, Trump, Proud, Advance Democracy, NBC News, Columbus, NBC, U.S . Capitol, Trump —, Fox News Locations: ”, New York City, Ohio, American

“I just believe that.”It’s a belief Vance has articulated at his rallies ahead of Election Day. “Even when I was not a Trump guy back then … that really pissed me off.”For Vance, the sentiments are personal. Feels kind of weird, but here we are.”Reflecting at the end of his campaign, Vance said he most enjoyed the opportunity to travel with his children and with Usha, who sat beside him paying household bills. Win or lose Tuesday, Vance, 40, is positioned to be a leading figure in the party for years to come. But I really, really, really don’t want us to lose, and it’s hard to even think about anything post that.

Persons: — Sen, JD Vance, Donald Trump, “, Kamala Harris, ” Vance, Vance, Trump, ” Harris, we’re, Harris, ”, Tony Hinchcliffe, Harris ’, Tim Walz, Joe Biden, “ I’ve, We’re, ’ ” Vance, “ That’s, Hillary Clinton, Usha, I’m, Bernie, Sanders, Biden, ’, “ It’s, ” Scott Olson, Europe’s, Andy Surabian, Jai Chabria, Luke Thompson, ‘, ’ ”, Harris —, —, we’ve, it’s, It’s, “ We’re, Donald Trump Jr, Bernie Moreno, podcaster Joe Rogan, you’ve Organizations: Democratic, Trump, New, Garden, Minnesota Gov, White, Senate, The Washington Post, Fox News, Washington Post, Republican Locations: FLINT, Mich, R, Ohio, ”, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Wisconsin , Michigan, Georgia, Cincinnati, La Crosse , Wisconsin, La Crosse, Flint, Vance’s, New Hampshire, “ New Hampshire, America

An ‘embellished’ closing argumentTrump’s and Harris’ closing messages have seemingly been playing through a bullhorn on loop around Pennsylvania these final weeks. “No matter who wins, it will be narrow,” said Eugene DePasquale, the Democratic nominee for Pennsylvania attorney general. “If Harris wins, I think you’re going to say we offered a different vision for the country moving forward. And there was finally … a wanting to turn the page from Trump.”“If it goes the other way,” he continued. Her advertising has been heavily focused on her proposal to combat price gouging and cost increases that Pennsylvanians could face because of wide-ranging tariffs Trump wants to impose.

Persons: Harris, ” Trump, Sen, Bob Casey, ”, Abbott, ” Harris, Trump, Richard Perini, Eugene DePasquale, Donald Trump’s, Clinton, Luis von Ahn, “, she’s, “ I’m, Josh Shapiro, ” Shapiro Organizations: Trump, Democratic, Trump’s State College, Republicans, ”, Carnegie Mellon University Locations: Pennsylvania, Lititz, U.S, Harrisburg, Westmoreland County, Pittsburgh

Elon Musk’s posts on his social media platform X get far more attention when they cast doubt on the integrity of the electoral process, an NBC News analysis has found. The difference in reach was vast: 5.2 times more likes, 4.2 times more comments and 9.1 times more reposts, when comparing the median election-doubting post to the median election post that didn’t cast doubt on the process. In addition to owning X, Musk is its biggest account, with more than 202 million followers, according to the app’s tally of his following. X has developed a clear tilt in favor of far-right users and posts since Musk bought it two years ago, according to researchers. Musk told an editor at The Atlantic in July that he would “of course” accept the results of the presidential election, according to the magazine.

Persons: Elon Musk’s, Musk’s, —, It’s, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, he’s, Musk, “ Organizations: NBC, SpaceX, Trump Locations: United States, U.S

As the campaign enters its final days, Harris and Trump use starkly different messages to woo voters. Harris and Trump appeal to voters with starkly different tones in final campaign daysSipa via AP; Getty ImagesFormer President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris spent the final weekend of their campaigns bouncing between battleground states, hoping to ramp up last-minute support. More on the election:➡️ The final national NBC News poll of the 2024 presidential election finds the contest is neck and neck between Harris and Trump. ➡️ In an interview with NBC News' Dasha Burns Trump didn’t rule out banning vaccines if he becomes president. ➡️ Here’s why election night vote counts can make it hard to tell who will win the presidency.

Persons: Harris, Trump, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, “, ”, ” Trump, NBC’s, Dasha Burns Trump, ➡️, ➡️ Trump, Oklahoma Bryan Terry, Kevin Stitt, Stitt, NFL Jeffrey Becker, Greg Rosenstein, 💪, arnold, alf, 🏃, Ari z, Bea, ove, gad Organizations: NFL, Trump, AP, Getty, NBC, ➡️, NBC News, Senate, Imagn, Oklahoma Gov, Oklahoma City Fire Department, Video, National Weather Service, Oklahoma, Minnesota Vikings, Detroit Lions, dow Locations: Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Lititz , Pennsylvania, Oklahoma City, Arkansas, Missouri, Ste l

Former President Donald Trump's campaign spent the final Sunday of the 2024 election on all-too-familiar turf: responding to the reaction to the candidate. Just hours earlier, Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, made a very traditional — and politically safe — appearance on NBC's "Saturday Night Live." Trump campaign aides did not respond to a request for comment. Rob Godfrey, a South Carolina-based Republican strategist, said Trump has handed Harris gifts by playing into her strategy. Last week, Democrats had to perform clean-up duty on a surrogate who has largely been absent from her campaign: President Joe Biden appeared to say Trump's supporters are "garbage."

Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Steven Cheung, Kamala Harris, Harris, Maya Rudolph, —, Rob Godfrey, ” Godfrey, ” Trump, Faiz Shakir, Sen, Bernie Sanders, He's, Shakir, Joe Biden, Virginia —, Deshaun, “, ” Hall Organizations: Sunday NBC, Democratic, White, Electoral College, NBC News, — Trump, Trump Locations: Lancaster, Pennsylvania, Tuesday's, South Carolina, Puerto Rico, Washington, New Mexico, Virginia

As the battle for Congress comes to a close, here are five things to watch:1. Republicans have long been concerned about Democrats’ massive fundraising advantage in House and Senate races. Nearly $1.6 billion has been spent on ads in Senate races since Labor Day, with Democrats spending $803 million and Republicans spending $758 million, according to AdImpact. More than $1 billion has also been spent on ads in House races since Labor Day, with Democrats spending $615 million to Republicans’ $448 million, according to AdImpact. In the Maryland Senate race, Republicans have tried to pull off an upset by recruiting former GOP Gov.

Persons: Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Jon Tester, Ohio’s Sherrod Brown, Brown, Tim Sheehy, Bernie Moreno, Jim Justice, Sen, Joe Manchin, Joe Biden, Harris, Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey, Wisconsin’s Tammy Baldwin, Nevada’s Jacky Rosen, Maine Republican Susan Collins, Biden, Casey, Dave McCormick, Rosen, Roe, Wade, ’, That’s, Dan Osborn, GOP Sen, Deb Fischer, Fischer, Osborn, Colin Allred, Ted Cruz, they’re, Debbie Mucarsel, Powell, Rick Scott, Allred, Larry Hogan, Hogan, Angela Alsobrooks Organizations: White, Republicans, House, Republican, Navy, West Virginia Gov, Democratic, Trump, GOP, Maine Republican, Senate, Freedom Caucus, Democrats, Labor, ’, Republicans ’, PAC, Maryland Senate, GOP Gov, Hogan Locations: California, New York, Arizona, Michigan, Maine, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Allentown, Harrisburg, Nebraska, Cornhusker, Texas, Florida, Maryland

Let’s get one thing straight: The polls can’t tell us who is going to win the presidential election. The race is that close and uncertain, and polls in previous election cycles have been that far off the mark. With those caveats out of the way, let’s not ignore the consistent storylines in the polls that have defined the political forces shaping the election. It's not the -33 net rating he had heading into his first presidential election in 2016, but it's not what successful presidential candidates have typically enjoyed, either. And whether he was running against Biden or against Harris, Trump's biggest issue advantage has long been on the border and controlling immigration.

Persons: Let’s, let’s, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Harris, What’s, Roe, Wade, Trump, they’ve, Joe Biden, —, It's, Trump's, they've, Biden, — Harris ’, Trump’s, Harris ’ Organizations: NBC News, Trump, October’s NBC, NBC, Telemundo, CNBC, Black, Electoral College, Biden, Democratic Locations: October’s

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