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☆ Shares and bonds chastened as Fed, ECB urge care
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Meanwhile dovish comments from European Central Bank policymaker Fabio Panetta saw European bond yields ease, but short-dated rates remained within striking distance of multi-year highs. Panetta said the ECB needs to avoid overtightening as that could destroy productive capacity and deepen a recession. The benchmark European STOXX index rose 0.26% (.STOXX), and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.6%, after jumping 7.7% last week. The dollar index was last seen on Monday at 106.86, still well short of last week's 111.280 top , while the euro eased a touch to $1.032 , after climbing 3.9% last week. The firming dollar also dragged down oil prices, despite the hopes of a demand boost from China's hints at reopening.

☆ U.S. dollar surges as traders say markets overreacted to U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But Governor Christopher Waller flagged on Sunday that the inflation print was "just one data point" and that other similar readings would be needed to show convincingly that inflation was slowing. Waller did add, however, that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. The euro fell 0.6% against the dollar to $1.0284 at 1130 GMT, after rising to a three-month high during Asian trading hours. The dollar index, which gauges the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies including the euro, yen, and sterling, rose 0.4% to 107.14. The risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped, giving up some gains made after China moderated its zero COVID strategy.

☆ Shares and bonds chastened as Fed urges caution
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Lawrence White | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The benchmark European STOXX index rose 0.15% (.STOXX), and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.5%, after jumping 7.7% last week. EYES ON CHINAChinese stocks gained on reports that regulators have asked financial institutions to extend more support to stressed property developers. The support for China's property sector, which consumes a vast amount of metals, boosted copper towards a five-month high. The dollar index was last seen on Monday at 107.15, still well short of last week's 111.280 top , while the euro eased a touch to $1.02875 , after climbing 3.9% last week. The firming dollar also dragged down oil prices, despite the hopes of a demand boost from China's hints at reopening.

A modest miss on U.S. inflation on Thursday put pressure on the dollar , which declined almost 4% in a week, marking its worst week in more than two and half years. But Waller said on Sunday that the inflation print last week was "just one data point" and that other similar readings would be needed to show convincingly that inflation was slowing. Waller did add, however, that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. U.S. inflation will likely remain high and keep the Fed on its monetary tightening path, Kong said. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen weakened 0.9% versus the greenback to 140 per dollar, while the euro was down 0.2% at $1.0324.

☆ Goldman Sachs expects "significant" decline in U.S. inflation in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 14 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said it expects a "significant" decline in U.S. inflation next year due to easing in supply chain constraints, a peak in shelter inflation and slower wage growth. The U.S. lender on Sunday forecast core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) –– the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation –– falling to 2.9% by December 2023 from 5.1% currently. Surging inflation and the Fed's battle to control it has sent Treasury yields and the dollar soaring this year, knocking stocks. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is down around 16% so far this year, on track for its worst year since a financial crisis of 2008. Reporting by Subhadeep Chakravarty; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil reverses gains, falls on China COVID surge, firmer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Emily Chow | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Summary Brent, WTI prices ease after Friday's gainsMajor China cities report record number of COVID-19 casesU.S. Fed not "softening" fight against inflation - Gov. "USD strength appears to be weighing on oil and the broader commodities complex this afternoon," said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING. But COVID cases climbed in China over the weekend, with Beijing and other big cities reporting record infections on Monday. China's demand for oil from world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, also remained weak as several refiners have asked to lift less crude in December. A firm dollar after comments from U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also weighed on oil.

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaMarkets have got all excited after last week's rip-roaring rally in global equities, a big tumble in U.S. Treasury yields and a bruising sell-off in the mighty dollar. But don't pop the champagne just yet. While U.S. consumer prices rose less than expected in October, pushing the annual increase below 8% for the first time in eight months, Waller said the markets shouldn't get carried away over just one "data point." This week, U.S. retail sales will dominate the data calendar, while markets will also pay attention to euro zone flash Q3 GDP estimates. In the crypto world, after Friday's shocking collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Bahamas authorities said they were scrutinising the demise of the exchange, co-founded by 30-year-old Sam Bankman-Fried.

☆ Shares mixed on Fed warning, China acts on property
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreWaller added the markets were well ahead of themselves on just one inflation print, though he did concede the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 1.1%, after jumping 7.7% last week. read moreThe news on COVID rules had stoked a short-covering bounce in the yuan, which added to broad pressure on the dollar as yields dived. The dollar index was up a fraction on Monday at 106.920 , but still well short of last week's 111.280 top. Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Kenneth MaxwellOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Monday, extending gains from the previous session, after China eased some of its strict COVID-19 protocols, fuelling hopes of a recovery in economic activity and demand at the world's top crude importer. Contracts for Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate edged up nearly 1% earlier in the session but later pared some gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were also up 23 cents, or 0.3%, at $89.19 a barrel after closing Friday's session 2.9% higher. "Moreover, it will take some time from the release of the policy to its implementation, so China's full liberalisation may have to wait until the first quarter of next year, which means that the rebound of oil prices last Friday is unsustainable." China's demand for oil from world's top exporter, Saudi Arabia, also remained weak as several refiners have asked to lift less crude in December.

☆ Oil prices extend gains on China demand hopes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Florence Tan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose nearly 1% on Monday, extending gains from the previous session as China eased some of its strict COVID-19 protocols, fuelling hopes of a recovery in economic activity and demand at the world's top crude importer. Brent crude futures rose 87 cents, or 0.9%, to $96.86 a barrel by 0041 GMT after settling up 1.1% on Friday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were at $89.76 a barrel, up 80 cents, or 0.9%, after closing Friday's session 2.9% higher. Commodities prices rallied on Friday after China's National Health Commission adjusted its COVID prevention and control measures. China's demand for oil from world's top exporter Saudi Arabia remained weak as several refiners have asked to lift less crude in December.

☆ Asia shares pause as Fed warns against exuberance
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read moreWaller added the markets were well ahead of themselves on just one inflation print, though he did concede the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.2%, after jumping 7.7% last week. read moreThe news on COVID rules had stoked a short-covering bounce in the yuan last week, which added to broad pressure on the dollar as yields dived. The dollar's recent retreat provided a much-needed fillip to commodities, with gold up at $1,768 an ounce after jumping over $100 last week. Oil futures extended their gains with Brent up 86 cents at $96.85, while U.S. crude rose 80 cents to $89.76 per barrel.

☆ Futures decline on cautious Fed tone on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Futures down: Dow 0.24%, S&P 0.35%, Nasdaq 0.60%Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Monday as hawkish comments from a U.S. Federal Reserve official tempered hopes of a less aggressive pace of monetary policy tightening. Traders now expect the Fed to hike interest rates in December by a half point, and expect terminal rate in the range of 4.75%-5.0% in May 2023. ET, Dow e-minis were down 82 points, or 0.24%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 14 points, or 0.35%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 71.5 points, or 0.60%. read moreIn the week ahead, investors will closely monitor a slew of economic data, including retail sales numbers on Wednesday. Reporting by Shubham Batra, Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Most Gulf bourses fall after Fed warning
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Ateeq Shariff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 14 (Reuters) - Most Gulf stock markets ended lower on Monday after a top U.S. central banker warned investors not to get carried away over one inflation number, while falling oil prices compounded concerns. Saudi Arabia's benchmark index (.TASI) fell 0.4%, hit by a 3% slide in the country's biggest lender Saudi National Bank (SNB)(1180.SE). The lender has agreed to invest 1.5 billion Swiss francs ($1.59 billion) in the Swiss bank and is set to take a stake of up to 9.9%. Since the October announcement, SNB has lost 39.94 billion riyals ($10.63 billion) from its market value. The kingdom's Public Investment Fund sold a 10% stake in the firm through a secondary share offering, raising 2.3 billion riyals ($612 million).

☆ Morning Bid: Don't get carried away
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The rupee is tipped to open at around 80.65-80.70 per dollar, up from the previous session's close of 80.7950. The local currency jumped 2% last week in its best gain in almost four years. The rupee has already corrected more than 3% from record lows and "then you have to consider oil prices", the trader said. Asian currencies began the week on a positive note, keeping up the momentum fuelled by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The data has prompted traders to calibrate again the pace of Fed rate hikes.

☆ Dollar steadies as Fed cautions on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Global equities soared as investors poured into risky assets on hopes that peaking inflation means less aggressive rate hikes from the Fed. Waller, however, did add that the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. U.S. inflation will likely remain high and keep the Fed on its monetary tightening path, Kong said. The Japanese yen weakened 0.24% versus the greenback to 139.12 per dollar, having strengthened 5.4% last week against the dollar. The offshore Chinese yuan fell 0.23% versus the greenback to stand at $7.0723 per dollar on the day.

☆ US stocks fall after last week's big rally as investors digest Fed messaging on rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks ended lower on Monday, losing steam after last week's huge rally. Investors digested comments from Fed officials. Vice chair Lael Brainard said the pace of rate hike could soon slow. Meanwhile, markets were absorbing comments from Fed governor Christopher Waller over the weekend, stating it was too early for investors to get excited about easing monetary policy. That message conflicted slightly with comments on Monday from Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who suggested the central bank could soon start slowing its pace of rate hikes.

☆ Asia shares mixed on Fed warning, China hopes
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read moreWaller added the markets were well ahead of themselves on just one inflation print, though he did concede the Fed could now start thinking about hiking at a slower pace. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) added 0.8%, after jumping 7.7% last week. read moreThe news on COVID rules had stoked a short-covering bounce in the yuan last week, which added to broad pressure on the dollar as yields dived. The euro eased a touch to $1.0324 , after climbing 3.9% last week, while the dollar firmed to 139.27 yen following last week's 5.4% drubbing. The dollar's recent retreat provided a much-needed fillip to commodities, with gold holding at $1,763 an ounce after jumping over $100 last week.

The nature and nuance of that debate was highlighted in the past 48 hours by Fed heavyweights Governor Christopher Waller and Vice Chair Lael Brainard. Wall Street closed in the red on Monday - not surprising given the extent of the rally Thursday and Friday - but investors are likely to gravitate towards Brainard. This was effectively a warning to investors not to get too carried away, as they had done on Thursday and Friday. chartWaller's caution helped push Wall Street lower at the open on Monday. Japan's output is expected to slow sharply from the April-June period, while on balance China's numbers are expected to weaken from September.

☆ Major Gulf markets fall after Fed warning
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 14 (Reuters) - Major stock markets in the Gulf retreated in early trade on Monday after a top U.S. central banker warned investors against getting carried away over one inflation number. Saudi Arabia's benchmark stock index (.TASI) dropped 1.3%, dragged down by a 4.1% slide in Retal Urban Development Co (4322.SE) and a 1.3% decline in Al Rajhi Bank (1120.SE). The kingdom's Public Investment Fund sold a 10% stake in the firm through a secondary share offering, raising 2.3 billion riyals ($612 million). The fund sold 12 million shares through an accelerated bookbuild offering at 191 riyals each, a 9% discount to Thursday's closing price. Dubai's main share index (.DFMGI) fell 0.4%, hit by a 0.9% fall in blue-chip developer Emaar Properties (EMAR.DU).

☆ The Lehman Brothers of Crypto: Here's how the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX compares to the collapse that sparked the Great Financial Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

It gives maybe the clearest, most entertaining breakdown of how many, many very bad bets on subprime mortgages kickstarted the 2008 Financial Crisis. The most serious domino to fall 14 years ago was Lehman Brothers, the classic too-big-to-fail behemoth that did in fact go under. All this is a roundabout way of saying the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange, FTX, is severe and dramatic enough to warrant its own movie in a few years. Reminisce with me for a moment: In the years leading up to 2008, Lehman Bros loaded up its balance sheet with huge amounts of subprime mortgage debt. Lehman went under, and the world sunk into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

☆ Fed vice chair Brainard: More deliberate, slower rate increases coming 'soon'
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —It could soon be time for the Federal Reserve to ease up on its super-sized rate interest hikes, according to the central bank’s number-two policymaker, Vice Chair Lael Brainard. “I think it will probably be appropriate soon to maintain a slower pace of increases,” Brainard said Monday at an event hosted by Bloomberg News in Washington, DC. The Fed has taken the unprecedented step of issuing a series of massive rate hikes in its battle to tame decades-high inflation. At each of its past four meetings, the central bank approved a rate hike of three-quarters of a percentage point, raising its benchmark lending rate by 4 percentage points in just nine months. “It makes sense to move through a more deliberate and data-dependent pace as we continue to make sure that there’s restraint that will bring inflation down over time,” she added.

☆ FTSE 100 rises on Informa boost; pound weakens
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Media stocks lead sectoral gainsIndivior up on deal to buy Opiant PharmaUK budget, due later in the week, in focusFTSE 100 up 0.4%, FTSE 250 falls 1.2%Nov 14 (Reuters) - UK's export-oriented FTSE 100 climbed on Monday, lifted by events organiser Informa's over 5% jump and a weaker pound. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) was up 0.4% by 0941 GMT. The company's announcement of raising its full-year earnings outlook pushed the broader FTSE 350 media index (.FTNMX403010) 1.0% higher. Among other stocks, Indivior (INDV.L) gained 0.9% after it said it would acquire Opiant Pharmaceuticals for approximately $145 million in cash. The domestically-focused FTSE 250 midcap index (.FTMC) dropped 1.2% after marking its biggest weekly gain in almost two years on Friday.

☆ Gold prices ease as U.S. dollar, yields gain
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

One kilo gold bars are pictured at the plant of gold and silver refiner and bar manufacturer Argor-Heraeus in Mendrisio, Switzerland, July 13, 2022. Gold prices slightly retreated on Monday from a three-month peak hit in the previous session, as the dollar and U.S. bond yields rose after a top U.S. central banker warned that the Federal Reserve is not "softening" fight against inflation yet. Gold prices posted their biggest weekly percentage gain since March 2020 last week after signs cooling U.S. inflation lifted hopes that the Fed could be less hawkish on rate hikes. The dollar index rose 0.4% against its rivals after falling to a near three-month low on Friday, making gold more expensive for other currency holders. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields edged up from a one-month low, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.

☆ Fed may cut size of rate increases, but is not 'softening' inflation fight, Waller says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve may consider slowing the pace of rate increases at its next meeting but that should not be seen as a "softening" in its commitment to lower inflation, Federal Reserve Gov. Until we get inflation down, that endpoint is still a ways out there." The 7.7% annualized increase in inflation recorded in October is still "enormous," Waller said, noting that even if the Fed scaled back from three quarter point increases to a half point increase at its next meeting, "you're still going up." The Fed has raised rates a total of 3.75 percentage points this year beginning in March, including four three quarter point increases, a rapid shift in monetary policy aimed to cool the worst surge of inflation since the 1980s. Analysts and economists have warned that the monetary tightening will further the risk of recession, impacting employment.

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