DIRS.INFO The most relevant business & tech news

☆ Here's the inflation breakdown for June, in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The CPI is a key barometer of inflation, measuring prices of anything from fruits and vegetables to haircuts and concert tickets. Hourly earnings increased 0.2%, on average, from May to June after accounting for inflation, according to BLS data. 'Encouraging' inflation signals moving forwardThe inflation slowdown has been broad-based, Zandi said. watch nowGrocery price inflation is also down significantly from its peak around 14% last summer, which had been the highest rate since 1979. Economists say it's a near certainty that housing prices will continue to fall through the second half of the year.

Persons: Michael M, Mark Zandi, Zandi, we're, Mark Hamrick, Andrew Hunter, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Stephanie Roth, Roth Organizations: Lincoln Market, Santiago, Getty, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Moody's, BLS, Capital Economics, Finance, U.S . Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Morgan Private Bank Locations: Brooklyn , New York, U.S, Ukraine

☆ UK wage growth matches record high, keeping BoE under pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The labour market became less tight in May and there are some signs of momentum in wage growth slowing a bit," Ashley Webb, an economist with Capital Economics, said. "But with wage growth still well above the levels consistent with the 2% inflation target, this won't ease the Bank of England's inflation fears significantly." The BoE is monitoring pay growth closely as it assesses how much inflationary pressure remains in Britain's economy even after its 13 back-to-back interest rate increases. "But it always has taken a little time for changes in labour market slack to influence wage growth and some leading indicators remain encouraging." Annual pay growth including bonuses sped up to 6.9%, the fastest on record excluding the coronavirus pandemic period when government job subsidies distorted the data, the ONS said.

Persons: Sterling, Ashley Webb, BoE, Andrew Bailey, Samuel Tombs, William Schomberg, Sachin Ravikumar, Kate Holton, Christina Fincher Organizations: Reuters, of England, Sterling, Bank of England, National Statistics, Capital Economics, of, Pantheon, MPC, Thomson

☆ China's producer prices sink again in June in latest sign of stalled recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Producer prices sank 5.4% in June from a year earlier and slipped 0.8% from a month ago, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This was weaker than a Reuters poll that had expected a 5.0% annual decline, compared with the 4.6% annual decline in May. The annual decline in June was China's ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015. Monthly consumer price inflation in June was weaker 0.2%, weaker than expectations for flat growth and tracking the 0.2% decline in May. But this would still be soft and won't constrain the People's Bank of China's ability to loosen policy further."

Persons: Zhichun Huang, —, Huang, PBOC Organizations: Visual China, Getty, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, Bank, People's Bank of China Locations: China, Ukraine

☆ China PPI: Factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

China’s factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in over seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. That was the slowest pace since February 2021 and missed the 0.2% rise expected in the Reuters poll. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. Prices rose 2% year-on-year in 2022. Core CPI, excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year, slowing from 0.6% in the previous month.

Persons: China’s, ”, “ Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, CPI Locations: China, Beijing

☆ China's factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China's factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. The consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with the 0.2% gain seen in May, driven by a faster fall in pork prices. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. China last month cut policy rates to boost liquidity and vowed to take measures to promote household consumption. Reuters GraphicsFor producer prices, the biggest year-on-year declines were seen in energy, metals and chemicals as domestic and foreign demand weakened.

Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Pang, Hu Yuexiao, COVID, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics, PPI, Jones, Shanghai Securities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China

☆ The Fed has rolled out a new index for gauging the economy that could have big implications
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is changing the way it looks at "financial conditions," a move that could have important ramifications for policy ahead. The Fed has been using a series of interest rate increases to tighten financial conditions and, ultimately, to bring down inflation. Essentially, the move allows the Fed to distance itself from other financial conditions models, such as those formulated by Goldman Sachs and the Chicago Fed . By contrast, the Chicago Fed index's current reading is -0.28, implying relatively loose conditions. Capital Economics noted that the FCI-G "does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures."

Persons: they've, Krishna Guha, Jerome, Powell, Guha, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal, Evercore ISI, Fed, Chicago Fed, Treasury, Dow Jones, U.S, FCI

☆ Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 3.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Employment growth eased in June, taking some steam out of what had been a stunningly strong labor market. A more encompassing unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons rose to 6.9%, the highest since August 2022. "This is a strong labor market where demand for higher paying jobs is clearly the trend," said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. The June report "suggests labor market conditions are finally beginning to ease more markedly," wrote Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Persons: Nonfarm, Dow, downwardly, payrolls, Seema Shah, Joseph Brusuelas, Andrew Hunter Organizations: Labor Department, Dow Jones, Asset Management, ADP, Blacks, of Labor Statistics, RSM, Capital Economics

☆ Commercial real estate values are set to crater as much as 40% by 2025 in these 6 cities
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Commercial real estate values will crater as much as 40% in some cities, Capital Economics said. The research firm highlighted cities it dubbed "major markets": San Francisco, Chicago, New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, and Washington, DC. San Francisco is expected to suffer the largest decline, with commercial property values in the city plummeting 40%-45% from 2023-2025. Other experts have been warning of trouble for the commercial real estate sector amid struggling post-pandemic demand for office properties and the anticipated crunch in credit conditions, which could spark more trouble for commercial real estate assets. Morgan Stanley sees a 40% crash in commercial real estate prices, meaning the sector would suffer an even more severe downturn than it did in 2008.

Persons: —, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Capital Economics, Service Locations: San Francisco, Chicago , New York City, Los Angeles, Boston, Washington, DC, Chicago, New York, LA, Seattle, Portland, Denver, Southern, Miami, Dallas, Atlanta

BENGALURU, July 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar will hold its ground against most major currencies for the rest of the year despite expectations of narrowing interest rate differentials as the U.S. economy stays resilient, according to FX strategists polled by Reuters. "The tightness of the U.S. labour market may help the economy and the dollar in the very short term," said Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale. "Even if we see (interest) rate convergence, it seems unlikely a new major euro uptrend will start without stronger growth." Indeed, a majority of common contributors showed the dollar view against most major currencies for the coming six months has been either upgraded or kept unchanged from a month ago. "The dollar is getting a tailwind from the Fed ... the current strength is on a repricing of the Fed (rate) higher," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kit Juckes, Jonas Goltermann, Sterling, John Hardy, Indradip Ghosh, Shaloo Srivastava, Sarupya Ganguly, Anitta Sunil, Veronica Khongwir, Hari Kishan, Ross Finley, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England, Societe Generale, Futures Trading Commission, Capital Economics, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Europe, Asia, Britain, Bengaluru

☆ US commercial real estate probably won't recover from crisis until 2040, thanks to out-of-fashion office buildings, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US commercial real-estate values aren't likely to recover until 2040, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist. Kiran Raichura said office values are unlikely to rebound to their peaks until 2040 thanks to the strengthening work-from-home trend, and high interest rates. The commercial real estate (CRE) industry has been under stress since the US regional-banking sector faced a bout of turmoil earlier this year. Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh recently warned that the pain is just beginning for commercial real estate – and tumbling prices could fire up the banking crisis again and hurt the US economy. Furthermore, rising distressed commercial real-estate assets is adding to concerns a crisis may be brewing in the sector.

Persons: we've, Kiran Raichura, —, Raichura, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Columbia Business School

☆ Australia's central bank holds rates, signals more hikes might be required
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY, July 4 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday held interest rates steady saying it wanted more time to assess the impact of past hikes, but reiterated its warning that further tightening might be needed to bring inflation to heel. Reuters GraphicsIn Tuesday's policy statement, RBA Governor Philip Lowe said that higher interest rates are working to establish a more sustainable balance between supply and demand in the economy. "In light of this and the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, the Board decided to hold interest rates steady this month." Global policymakers are still grappling with relatively high inflation despite sweeping rate increases for more than a year. Both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are almost certain to hike by a quarter-point this month, which could pressure an already soft Australian dollar.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Lowe, Stephen Smith, Marcel Thieliant, Reuters Graphics Lowe, Stella Qiu, Wayne Cole, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reuters, Deloitte, Capital Economics, Global, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Thomson

LONDON/HONG KONG, July 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks held steady on Tuesday, as investors balanced the inflationary force of rising oil prices with hopes that central banks would not over-tighten monetary policy into a potential recession. Earlier in the session, Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 4.1%, saying it needed time to assess the economic impact of its rate hikes so far. Complicating the outlook for inflation, oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent crude futures climbed 0.6% to $75.09 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate crude adding the same amount to $70.23. "At least the improved supply-demand imbalance seems to be having an effect on price pressures," Capital Economics global economist Ariane Curtis said.

Persons: Europe's, Brent, Ariane Curtis, Curtis, Manishi Raychaudhuri, Raychaudhuri, Schatz, Paul Volcker, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Himani Sarkar, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Wall, West Texas, Institute of Supply Management, Economics, Asia, BNP Paribas, Treasury, Independence, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Singapore

☆ US manufacturing slump deepens, factory gate price pressures subdued
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Shrinking activity left factories resorting to layoffs, the survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore described the practise as happening "to a greater extent than in prior months." At face value, the ISM survey is consistent with an economy that is in recession. The ISM survey showed that transportation equipment was the only one of the six biggest industries reporting growth last month. ISM manufacturing PMIWEAK DEMANDThe ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index climbed to a still-subdued 45.6 from 42.6 in May amid increased caution from businesses and consumers alike.

Persons: Timothy Fiore, payrolls, Andrew Hunter, Jonathan Millar, José Torres, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing Business Survey, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, PMI, Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Manufacturers, Machinery, Commerce Department, Interactive Brokers, Thomson Locations: homebuilding WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Miami

The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed 1.2% higher. European shares still advanced 8.7% in the first six months of the year. Miners (.SXPP) were a big drag this quarter, down 9.2% as worries around top metals consumer China weighed heavily on metal prices. The real estate sector (.SX86P) rose 1.7%, buoyed by 4.3% gains in shares of LEG Immobilien (LEGn.DE) after the German firm raised its 2023 outlook. Shares in Adidas (ADSGn.DE) and Puma (PUMG.DE), which had fallen earlier on Nike's (NKE.N) dour forecast, reversed course to rise 2.5% and 3.3%, respectively.

Persons: Melanie Debono, Hubert de, Amruta Khandekar, Matteo Allievi, Varun H, Eileen Soreng, David Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Pantheon, ECB, Capital Economics, MIB, Miners, Adidas, Puma, Thomson Locations: Europe, U.S, Hubert de Barochez, China, Bengaluru, Gdansk

☆ UK economic growth unrevised at 0.1% in first quarter of 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File PhotoLONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Britain's economy grew 0.1% in the first quarter of this year, unrevised from an initial estimate published last month, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday. "The final Q1 2023 GDP data confirms that the economy steered clear of a recession at the start of 2023. Friday's figures showed that households' real disposable income was 0.8% smaller than the previous quarter, reflecting higher costs for electricity, gas and food. There were also signs that people were saving less in response to the increased cost of living, as the savings ratio fell to 8.7% in the first quarter from 9.4% in the quarter before, its lowest level since the second quarter of 2022 though well above its pre-pandemic average. Stripping out volatile trade in precious metals, the ONS's preferred measure, the underlying current account deficit narrowed to 2.6% of GDP from 3.3% of GDP in the final quarter of 2022.

Persons: Henry Nicholls, Ashley Webb, David Milliken, Andy Bruce, Sarah Young Organizations: REUTERS, Office, National Statistics, ONS, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Germany, Ukraine

The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".

Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing

☆ Inflation in Europe falls again in June
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

London CNN —Inflation in Europe slowed for the second straight month in June. Economists polled by Reuters had expected slightly higher inflation of 5.6% this month. However, core inflation — which strips out volatile food and energy prices — edged up. The increase was because of a statistical anomaly, Christoph Weil, a senior economist at Commerzbank, wrote in a note. Food prices still highFood, alcohol and tobacco prices remained the main driver of inflation, rising 11.7% in June, down from 12.5% the month before.

Persons: That’s, Christoph Weil, Price, ” Weil, Jack Allen, Reynolds, ” Allen Organizations: London CNN, Reuters, Commerzbank, Capital Economics, European Central Bank Locations: Europe, Germany, Europe’s, European

It is not the end of our relationship with the IMF though, as the SBA is a short-term bridging operation. GARETH LEATHER, SENIOR ASIA ECONOMIST AT CAPITAL ECONOMICS, LONDON"The agreement of a loan deal between Pakistan and the IMF should put the economy back on a more secure footing and limit the biggest downside risks. There is a strong risk that Pakistan reneges on the deal once the immediate crisis has passed. Our target shall be that the next IMF programme should be the last one and it would be a great opportunity to correct our fiscal account once and for all." "Things would have been much better if successive governments would have invested in completing the IMF programme.

Persons: MURTAZA SYED, GARETH, Shehbaz Sharif, ABDUL ALEEM, SHERANI, SHAHBAZ ASHRAF, MAHA RAHMAN, ZAFAR MASUD, MUSTAFA PASHA, SHAHID HABIB, ARIF HABIB, ZULQARNAIN, MOHAMMED SOHAIL, AHFAZ MUSTAFA, ISMAIL IQBAL, SAJID AMIN JAVED, Ariba Shahid, Shilpa Jamkhandikar, Raju Gopalakrishnan Organizations: Monetary Fund, South, IMF, BANK OF PAKISTAN, SBA, State Bank, EFF, Capital, UL HAQ, OF PUNJAB, Pakistan, ARIF, Thomson Locations: Pakistan, ASIA, KARACHI, ISLAMABAD, LAHORE, PAKISTAN

☆ Squeezed UK households tap into savings at record pace
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Andy Bruce | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Unsecured lending to consumers rose by 1.144 billion pounds ($1.45 billion) in net terms last month after a 1.513 billion-pound increase in April. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to net consumer credit lending of 1.5 billion pounds in May. Thursday's data pointed to mixed signals from the housing market, with mortgage rates for new borrowers soaring past 6% this month in many cases. The value of net mortgage lending contracted in May by 92 million pounds, following a 1.466 billion-pound fall in April. It marked the first back-to-back falls in net mortgage lending since records began in 1986.

Persons: BoE, Ashley Webb, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Paul Heywood, Andy Bruce, William Schomberg, Emelia Organizations: Bank of England, Savings and Investment, Consumer, Capital Economics, Reuters, Equifax, Thomson

☆ Italy may have dodged a ‘pasta strike’ but food inflation is still high. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But it shelved the plan, citing “noticeable” falls in pasta prices. Pasta prices dipped in May compared with April, though provisional official data released Wednesday showed that they ticked up again this month. Broader food price inflation, albeit slowing, is still high in Italy and elsewhere. Concerns have grown that retailers and food producers are deliberately keeping prices high to boost profit margins — claims they strenuously deny. That meant they had “locked in higher prices” for longer, he told a gathering of central bankers in Portugal.

Persons: Danni Hewson, AJ Bell, Pasta, Remo Casilli, Andrew Bailey, “, Mintec, Andrew Woods, ”, Jack Allen, Reynolds, That’s, Christine Lagarde, ” Nestlé, ” Lagarde, Jeremy Hunt, —, Cristiano Laurenza, ” — Valentina Di Donato, Hanna Ziady Organizations: London CNN, CNN, ”, Bank of England, Labor, European Union, Capital Economics, European Central Bank, Wednesday, Competition, Markets Authority, Unione Italiana Food Locations: Italian, Italy, United Kingdom, United States, France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, Cecco's, Fara San Martino, Portugal, Europe, European, “, Sweden

☆ Australia's consumer inflation hits 13-month low, adding to rate pause case
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, June 28 (Reuters) - Australia's consumer inflation slowed to a 13-month low in May, driven by a sharp pullback in fuel, while a measure of core inflation also cooled in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 5.6% in the year to May, marking the smallest increase since April last year. That was down from 6.8% the previous month and well below market forecasts of 6.1%. The core trimmed mean measure of CPI rose by an annual 6.1%, a seven-month low and again down from 6.7% in April. Wednesday's data showed the most significant drivers were an 8.4% jump in housing and a 7.9% increase in food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Persons: Tony Sycamore, Marcel Thieliant, Stella Qiu, Sam Holmes Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia, IG, Bank, Capital Economics, Thomson

☆ Analysis: Nigeria's Tinubu faces daunting hurdles after reform sprint
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Macdonald Dzirutwe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Nigeria today faces record debt, unemployment is worryingly high, and power shortages have contributed to years of anaemic growth. "The path to political power in Nigeria, over time, has always been through these vested interests," said Bismarck Rewane, CEO at Financial Derivatives Company in Lagos. ENTRENCHED NETWORKSTinubu's ambitions to build a $1 trillion economy in eight years could come unstuck in part due to chronic power shortages. Getting the lights on would be a major win, but to do so some say Tinubu must remove grid subsidies and cut red tape. Tinubu suspended the head of the financial and economic crimes agency, but has yet to outline an anti-graft plan.

Persons: Bola Tinubu, Jason Tuvey, Bismarck Rewane, Tinubu, Tunau Taiwo, Nnamdi Obasi, Prince Ojeabulu, Muhammadu Buhari, jihadists, beholden, Joe Bavier, Conor Humphries Organizations: New, Capital Economics, Financial Derivatives Company, International, Rensource Energy, Nigeria Delta, Observers, Thomson Locations: Nigeria, LAGOS, New Nigerian, Lagos

☆ Analysis: Latin America, after record tightening, could lead way on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Marion Giraldo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The small South American country of Uruguay has already cut rates, by 25 basis points in April. Chile's central bank kept its key interest rate on hold at 11.25% last week, but said if recent positive trends continue, it could begin cutting the rate in the short term. Forecasts are pointing to a rate cut next month, said Cesar Guzman, macroeconomic analyst at Santiago-based Grupo Securities. Even there, however, the central bank opted to hold rates steady in June as monthly inflation slowed for the first time in half a year. "Colombia and Mexico will be the last ones to cut rates, possibly in the fourth quarter."

Persons: Joan Domene, Reuters Graphics Goldman Sachs, Alberto Ramos, Cesar Guzman, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Kimberley Sperrfechter, Andres Pardo, Marion Giraldo, Natalia Ramos, Fabian Cambero, Nelson Bocanegra, Anthony Esposito, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: MEXICO CITY, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, America, Oxford, Reuters Graphics, Grupo Securities, Reuters, Capital Economics, XP Investments, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Chile, Brazil, Mexico, American, Uruguay, Santiago, COLOMBIA, America, Argentina, Colombia, Bogota

☆ Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Summary Business climate index fell to 88.5 in June from 91.5 in MayBoth business expectations and current business conditions fellProbability of longer recession risesBERLIN, June 26 (Reuters) - German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe's largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. "Sentiment in the German economy has clouded over noticeably," Ifo's president Clemens Fuest said. Indeed, expectations were much more pessimistic, with the related Ifo index falling to 83.6 from May's 88.3. "The probability has increased that gross domestic product will also shrink in the second quarter," he said. "We feel confirmed in our forecast that the German economy will shrink again in the second half of the year," Commerzbank's chief economist Joerg Kraemer said.

Persons: Clemens Fuest, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Urban, Franziska Palmas, Joerg Kraemer, Maria Martinez, Rene Wagner, Friederike Heine, Matthias Williams, Hugh Lawson Organizations: ING, Companies, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, U.S, Germany, German, Europe

☆ UK shoppers boost spending again despite inflation's squeeze
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But Friday's retail sales figures showed that, at least for now, British consumers were weathering the cost-of-living storm. "But our view is still that the growing drag on activity from higher interest rates will eventually tip the economy into recession, generating a 0.5% peak to trough fall in real consumer spending." The statistics agency said the one-off holiday to celebrate the king's coronation was not factored into its seasonal adjustments, meaning it helped to boost the sales volumes reading. Retail sales volumes in May were 2.1% lower than a year earlier. The Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a fall of 2.6% in sales volumes on an annual basis.

Persons: Sterling, King Charles, Ruth Gregory, Samuel Tombs, Heather Bovill, William Schomberg, William James, Catherine Evans Organizations: Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Office, National Statistics, Capital Economics, ONS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Britain

Search resuls for: "Capital Economic"

25 mentions found