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What investors found most unsettling in the January consumer price index, which came in hotter than expected , is the core inflation reading. "The most troubling thing to me is that the core inflation rate in the last three months has shot up," said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies. Economists polled by Dow Jones were anticipating a 0.2% monthly gain and a 2.9% annual increase. Economists were anticipating respective increases of 0.3% and 3.7%, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. Stocks tumbled Tuesday following the report, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 500 points, or 1.3%.
Persons: Kumar, Dow Jones, Dow, Stocks Organizations: Sri, Kumar, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.64% last week, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 5.90% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a four-basis-point decrease from the previous week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which is likely to happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow, Fed Locations: Chevron
The Fed can still break markets. Here’s how
  + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Those gains came even as Federal Reserve officials attempted to reduce investors’ lofty expectations for a plethora of interest rate cuts this year. It is now signaling that interest rates could come this year but not until spring or summer. That means they think the Fed is keeping interest rates too high and could potentially slow down economic growth too much and risk a recession. That makes the NFL and the Super Bowl all the more valuable to advertisers trying to reach a mass market. Li-Lac Chocolates, which calls itself the oldest chocolate shop in Manhattan, told CNN that their raw chocolate prices are up 13% this February compared to a year ago.
Persons: Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Olivier Darcy, Sunday’s, CNN’s John Towfighi, , Michele Buck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Investors, Nasdaq, Federal, Apollo Global Management, National Association for Business, Atlanta Fed, CNN, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, CBS, Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles, NFL, Allegiant, NFC, Fox, AFC, Super Bowl, Companies, Hershey Co Locations: New York, There’s, Las Vegas, West Africa, North America, Manhattan
JPMorgan traders expect the S & P 500 could rise 0.5% to 1%. The S & P 500 may gain 1% to 1.5% here. In this scenario, JPMorgan traders anticipate a 1% to 1.5% decline in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 could rally 2% to 2.25%. Traders expect the S & P 500 could lose 1.75% to 2.25% in this scenario.
Persons: Dow Jones, disinflation, Jerome Powell's, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CPI, Investors, Reserve, JPMorgan, Traders Locations: U.S
Investors now expect that the Fed will begin easing back rates in May or June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Before the Bell: What does the Fed’s signal that it won’t cut rates in March mean for markets? I think what’s important for the markets themselves is the fact that the Fed has signaled they’re going to cut rates. So, they’re going to cut rates at some point this year, probably May or June is going to be the first cut that we get. There’s a lot of areas where your earnings … start to reaccelerate higher, and that’s a good thing.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, Bell, Matt Orton, I’ve, We’re, it’s, Matt Egan, Read, Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Investors, Fed, Raymond James Investment Management, The Conference, Conference, Avis Budget Group, Hasbro, Cola, Molson Coors, The, Labor Statistics, Kraft, Heinz, The Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, University of Michigan Locations: New York, Wells Fargo
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. Mortgage Rates for Buying a Home30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Jump Up (+0.43%)The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.48%, up 43 points from where it was this time last week. 20-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Increase (+0.39%)The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is up quite a bit from last week, and is sitting at 6.22%. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Up (+0.37%)The average 15-year mortgage rate is 5.78%, up 37 points from last week. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-Year Fixed Refinance Rates Tick Up (+0.19%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 6.26%, just 19 basis points higher than last week.
Persons: you'll, It's, refinance Organizations: Investors, Federal Reserve, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
The dollar is back. It’s not all good news
  + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —The greenback is strengthening again after a bumpy 2023, as Wall Street accepts that interest rate cuts are coming later than previously expected. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the dollar against the British pound, euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar and Swedish krona, is up 2.8% for the year as of Friday morning. “All of a sudden the interest rate differential kicks in — if that is slower than the Fed or faster,” said Krosby. Higher interest rates tend to garner more international capital to flow into a country, raising demand for the currency and thus its value. Still, Todd Jones, chief investment officer at Gratus Capital, says he expects the dollar to trend lower eventually as the Fed gets closer to cutting rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Quincy Krosby, , Neel Kashkari, Todd Jones, Jones, Anna Cooban, Richard Meade, Janet Yellen, Alicia Wallace, Yellen, ” Yellen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Swiss, Canadian, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, LPL, Treasury, Minneapolis, Gratus, Fed, Hamas, Lloyds, CNN, Banking Committee Locations: New York, Swedish, Iran, Suez, Asia, Europe
Macquarie economist Danny Doyle said he now expects just two interest rate cuts this year and no recession in 2024 or 2025. Doyle had previously expected as many as nine interest rate cuts just two months ago. One such economist is Danny Doyle, Macquarie's head of economics, who pulled a U-turn on Thursday when he slashed his 2024 interest rate forecast to just two rate cuts of 25 basis points a piece. That's fewer than the Federal Reserve's own forecast of three interest rate cuts this year. Doyle expects the Fed's first interest rate cut to happen at the July FOMC meeting, while the market expects the first interest rate cut to happen in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Danny Doyle, Doyle, Macquarie's Organizations: Macquarie, Federal, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed's
In spite of some fluctuations from day to day or week to week, mortgage rates have overall been holding relatively steady since mid-December. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.63% last week, according to Freddie Mac. 15-year Fixed Mortgage RatesLast week, average 15-year mortgage rates were 5.94%, a two-basis-point decrease from the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data. Once the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: Adriana Kugler, Kugler, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Brookings Institution, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
Hot economic data pushed mortgage rates back up at the end of last week, and they've inched even higher this week. Mortgage rates aren't directly impacted by Fed rate changes, but investor expectations of how Fed policy decisions will impact the overall economy can push mortgage rates up or down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates were 5.94% last week, according to Freddie Mac data, which is a two-basis-point decrease from the previous week. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit.
Persons: they've, Jerome Powell, Powell, Freddie Mac Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Fed, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
The "zombie economy" is haunting the stock market and stoking uncertainty, Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist told Bloomberg. AdvertisementThe stock market has been jittery lately. One strategist says they've created a "zombie economy" that's contributed to volatility as interest rates have risen. "We kind of still have the zombie economy," Tony Dwyer, the chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, told Bloomberg on Wednesday. It's that uncertainty that is bleeding into the stock market.
Persons: Canaccord, , they've, that's, Tony Dwyer, Genuity, It's, That's, Dwyer, haven't, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bloomberg, Service Locations: New York
Dollar firms near 3-month high as rate cut bets dwindle
  + stars: | 2024-02-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The U.S. dollar was perched near a three-month peak on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated Treasury yields, on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates aggressively this year. The U.S. dollar was perched near a three-month peak on Tuesday, buoyed by elevated Treasury yields, on growing expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates aggressively this year. The string of robust U.S. economic data has quashed any lingering hopes of early and steep interest rate cuts by the Fed, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers also pushing back against the notion. Figures showed that the unemployment rate was likely much lower late last year than previously thought, which could push out rate cuts there, too. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.07% to 148.56 per dollar, hovering around a two-month low of 148.90 it touched on Monday.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Christopher Wong, Michele Bullock, Kristina Clifton Organizations: U.S, Federal, Investor, Reserve Bank of Australia, Investors, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia Locations: Singapore, Asia
Mortgage rates are expected to go down this year, but it may be a few months before we see them fall sustainably. Right now, average 30-year mortgage rates are up near last month's levels, when rates averaged around 6.34%, according to Zillow data. This means we could see mortgage rates start to trend down right as the homebuying season is heating up. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. This is good news for mortgage rates — as inflation slows and the Federal Reserve is able to start cutting the federal funds rate, mortgage rates are expected to trend down as well.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Fannie Mae Organizations: Investors, Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
In today's big story, we're looking at why investors are eyeing an even better outcome for the market than a soft landing . The big storyMarket's sweet spotPiotr PowietrzynskiForget about a soft landing, some market watchers want something just right. For months, investors hoped the Fed's tightening policy would culminate in a soft landing: lowering inflation while avoiding a full-blown recession. But why settle for a soft landing when you can get it all? Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty ImagesA Goldilocks economy still hinges on the Fed cutting rates, which has proved fleeting for investors.
Persons: , hasn't, Piotr Powietrzynski Forget, Matthew Fox, Solita, Marcelli, Jerome Powell, Liu Jie, we'll, Powell, Banks, Kenneth Rogoff, Jensen Huang, Rick Wilking, Goldman, Goldman Sachs, Savita Subramanian, Gen, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Fintechs, VCs, Sam Altman, Altman, didn't, Scott Winters, Alyssa Powell, Travis Kelce, Experian, It's, EVs, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Apple, Business, Getty, Bank of America, Harvard, Nvidia, CES, Kansas City Chiefs, US Treasury, New York Times, UBS, FAA, Boeing, Max Locations: Americas, Washington ,, Xinhua, Jensen, Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, China, New York, London
Dollar scales fresh peaks as Fed cut bets recede
  + stars: | 2024-02-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
"A one-two punch from Jay Powell's FOMC presser and a very strong nonfarm payrolls report have essentially closed the door on a March rate cut," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. The Japanese yen was last 0.15% lower at 148.58 per dollar, having hit a trough of 148.82 earlier in the session. Treasury yields also jumped on expectations of higher-for-longer U.S. rates, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term interest rate expectations, last up nearly seven bps at 4.4386%. That did little to help the yuan, with the offshore yuan last marginally lower at 7.2182 per dollar, pressured by a stronger greenback. "So far we've just seen speculation and some media reports talking about further support for the equity market or the property market.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Jay Powell's FOMC presser, Chris Weston, Powell, Carol Kong, CBA's Organizations: Federal Reserve, New, Traders, Fed, CBS, Sterling, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Treasury Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, New Zealand
Before the Bell spoke to Joe Mazola, director of Schwab Trader Education, about the growing importance of retail investors in markets, where Main Street is investing and why people are still enamored with Elon Musk. Why is it so important to single out retail investors and track where they’re putting their money? Is there a big difference between what retail investors and institutional investors are doing right now? That means the Fed is due to cut rates in 2024, which officials themselves projected in December. We just want some more confidence before we take that very important step of beginning to cut interest rates,” he told “60 Minutes” correspondent Scott Pelley.
Persons: Elon Musk’s, Tesla, Charles Schwab, Schwab, Bell, Joe Mazola, Elon Musk, Joe Mazzola, it’s, they’re, there’s, They’ve, Powell, Jerome Powell, “ We’ve, ” Powell, , Price, , Scott Pelley, Read, 23andMe, Anne Wojcicki, ” Wojcicki, they’ve, Wojcicki Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Tesla, Big Tech, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Devices, Schwab Trader Education, Elon, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Investors, CBS, Fed, Nasdaq, CNN Locations: New York, Street, Silicon Valley
New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the time is coming for interest rate cuts, but asked Americans for a bit more patience in the central bank’s fight against inflation. That means the Fed is due to cut rates in 2024, which officials themselves projected in December. But the central bank’s January policy statement pushed back on expectations of the first rate cut coming at their next meeting in March. Still, financial markets see a 20% chance the Fed will cut rates in March and a 71.3% chance they cut in May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. But that hasn’t stopped Congress from pressuring Powell to cut rates.
Persons: Jerome Powell, “ We’ve, ” Powell, , Price, Powell, , Scott Pelley, can’t, hasn’t, Democratic Sen, Sherrod Brown, ” Brown, Brown, Elizabeth Warren, we’re Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, CBS, Fed, Federal Reserve, Governors, Democratic, Banking, New York Community Bancorp, New York Community Locations: New York, Street, Ukraine, Asia,
New York CNN —US stocks rose on Friday as investors continued to parse strong tech earnings and a searing jobs report, leading shares of Nvidia, Meta Platforms and Microsoft to close at fresh highs. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to reach a record-high close. Tech stocks were the winners of Friday’s session, following strong earnings reports from Meta Platforms and Amazon the prior evening. Amazon shares rose 7.9% after the e-commerce giant reported solid earnings for its latest quarter. Microsoft shares rose 1.8% to a fresh record-high close of $411.22.
Persons: market’s, Jerome Powell, , Louis Navellier, Russell, Janet Yellen Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Dow, Nasdaq, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Fed, Navellier, Associates, Traders, Banking Committee, New York Community Bancorp Locations: New York
Dollar poised for weekly decline; US jobs data up next
  + stars: | 2024-02-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The dollar index was last at 103.02 and on track for its first weekly decline for the year. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.07% to $0.6149 and was on track for a weekly rise of nearly 1%, its best performance in over a month. It was poised for a weekly gain of nearly 1.3%, its best week in over a month. That highlighted a growing view within the board that conditions were falling in place to soon pull short-term interest rates out of negative territory, which would be Japan's first interest rate hike since 2007. Data on Thursday showed euro zone inflation eased as expected last month but underlying price pressures fell less than forecast, likely boosting the European Central Bank's argument that rate cuts should not be rushed.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ray Attrill, Raf Choudhury, BoE, Thierry Wizman Organizations: Federal Reserve, New Zealand, National Australia Bank, Friday's, Analysts, Bank of Japan's, Bank of England, Monetary, European Locations: Abrdn, U.S
Growing hope for an economic soft landing is misplaced, economist Ken Rogoff wrote this week. The Harvard economist sees the runway for the economy in an "earthquake zone" in 2024. AdvertisementThere's little reason to be optimistic about a soft-landing, as the economy is set to land in an "earthquake zone" in 2024, according to top economist Ken Rogoff. Advertisement"Despite the widespread belief that the global economy is headed for a soft landing, recent trends offer little cause for optimism. The US also faces trouble as the national debt continues to surge and interest rates look poised to stay higher-for-longer.
Persons: Ken Rogoff, , Doom, Rogoff Organizations: Harvard, Service, Syndicate, International Monetary Fund, Fed, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Cleveland Fed Locations: China, Europe, Ukraine, Russia
The first Fed rate cut probably isn't coming until June, according to Bank of America. Central bank chief Jerome Powell pushed back on hopes for a March rate cut on Wednesday. AdvertisementThe Fed's first rate cut is now unlikely to come in March after the central bank struck a surprisingly hawkish tone at Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting, according to Bank of America. Investors still see an aggressive pace of rate cuts by the end of the year, despite lowered hopes for a March cut. AdvertisementExperts have warned that Fed rate cuts could be a double-edged sword for the economy, particularly if the Fed cuts interest rates rapidly.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Jerome Powell's presser, aren't, Powell, Jeff Gundlach Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Fed
This week's question: CNBC guests often say six Fed cuts are priced into the 2024 market. – Mike H. When you hear about the number of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts being priced into the market, the data comes from the CME FedWatch tool . The overnight fed funds bank lending rate is the rate that everyone is referring to when talking about Fed rate moves. You may have heard us say things like, the market is trading on Fed rate cuts. This week's question: CNBC guests often say six Fed cuts are priced into the 2024 market.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Mike H, Jerome Powell, Jim Organizations: Federal, CME, That's, CNBC
NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. 3 things in marketsJim Esposito, Goldman Sachs' head of global markets and banking, is set to retire from the bank, the firm said Monday. Jim Esposito is leaving Goldman Sachs after nearly 30 years. While he didn't share his next move, he told peers he'd "bleed Goldman Sachs forever." Goldman Sachs says rate cuts need to be on the menu in March.
Persons: , Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy, Keyur Khamar, Marc Lasry, Steve Cohen, Aaron Mok, LeBron James, — Arthur Blank, Gerry Cardinale, Goldman Sachs, who's, Lasry, Cohen, Point72, it's, Patrick Smith, Peacock, David Tepper, Jim Esposito, We've, he'd, Jean Boivin, David Mericle, NurPhoto, Getty, Javier Zayas, Kevin Winter, Tyler Le, Critics, Dan DeFrancesco, Hallam Bullock, Jordan Parker Erb Organizations: Service, Costco, Getty, PGA Tour, Fenway Sports Group, NFL's Atlanta Falcons, Capital Group, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Mets, NFL, Denver Broncos, Washington, Washington Post, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers, BlackRock, Spotify, Apple, Google, Entertainment, Netflix, Studios, HBO, Disney, Walmart, Microsoft, Business Locations: Vegas, BlackRock, New York, London
Futures tied to the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell Tuesday night after a pair of mega-cap tech companies posted their quarterly results. Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.4%, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded near the flatline. In after-hours trading, shares of Alphabet dropped 5.3%, while Microsoft shed 0.3% after the tech giants posted quarterly earnings. The fed funds futures market has priced in a nearly 98% probability that the central bank will leave rates unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Chipmaker Qualcomm is scheduled to announce its quarterly earnings after the close.
Persons: Sam Stovall, , Stovall, Dow, Jerome Powell's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Fed, Dow, Boeing, Qualcomm Locations: New York City, U.S
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch audio feature in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Stay patient: Jim Cramer on Tuesday expressed concern that if investors try to act amid this market volatility, they're going to end up being wrong, which is why we're staying patient. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jerome Powell, Danaher, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Wynn, Estee Lauder, Ming Chi Kuo, we're, Jim, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Federal, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Ford, General Motors, Costco, Constellation Brands, Diageo, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Amazon
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