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"The beginning of bull markets has this really incredible trajectory," Demmert said in a recent interview. AdvertisementA slew of catalysts, including investors' fear of missing out, will drive the S&P 500 to 6,000 by year's end, Demmert predicted. "This whole thing ends, eventually, very ugly, but I think that's years away — not months," Demmert said. So we start a new business cycle; new bull market. AdvertisementEconomic cycles usually go for seven to eight years, Demmert said, and this bull market began two Octobers ago.
Persons: , James Demmert, Demmert, I'm, inflation's, there's, We're, that's, Scott Organizations: Service, Main, Research, Business, Federal Reserve, Bears Locations: Wall, Japan, India, China
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Investors cheered the broadening of a 2024 stock-market rally that has been largely concentrated with mega-cap tech names associated with the AI trade. Behind the rally in encouraging data that's paving the way for a rate cut in September. Consumer prices rose less than expected last month, while wholesale inflation was hotter, though only slightly and not enough to derail a coming rate cut, market pros said Friday. The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note has dropped by about 14 basis points in a week and the 10-year bond is down over eight basis points in that time.
Persons: Dow, Russell, , Stocks Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Investors, Reserve, Nvidia Locations: Here's
Pressures faced by lower-income consumers have been smoothed over by robust spending from the middle- and higher-income cohort. 'A shift in priorities' Even with cracks emerging in the consumer, many investors anticipate a soft landing for the economy. "They are spending, but they're being more particular than they were before in terms of what they're spending on," she added. "As more consumers shift their meal preferences to eating at home as opposed to eating out, that could provide a catalyst to lift these stocks valuations," he wrote. Sekera also noted travel as one area where consumers are continuing to spend, even as they pull back on other purchases.
Persons: Bill Merz, They're, Lindsay Rosner, there's, Dave Sekera, Morningstar, Kraft Heinz, Kellanova, Sekera, Goldman Sachs, Rosner Organizations: PepsiCo, U.S, Bank Asset Management, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, HSBC, Viking Holdings, Worldwide Holdings, Marriott International, Walmart, Target, Kraft Locations: U.S, delinquencies
Wall Street’s expectations for a September rate cut rose to roughly 93% on Thursday from 73% the day before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “A September rate cut should be a done deal at this point,” wrote Ron Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, in a Thursday note. Some economists worry that if the Fed doesn’t cut rates by then, cracks could begin to deepen in the labor market. A September rate cut “may not be the magic elixir some investors are seeking,” wrote Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, in a Monday note. On an annual basis, consumer prices are increasing at their slowest pace since June 2023, matching the lowest annual rate since early 2021.
Persons: , Ron Temple, Jerome Powell didn’t, Brent Schutte, Alicia Wallace, , Elisabeth Buchwald, McDonald’s, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Lazard, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Bureau of Labor Statistics ’, Taco Bell Locations: New York, Burger
Carson Block told Bloomberg TV that the stock market needs short sellers "more than ever." AdvertisementThe market needs to embrace short sellers if it wants to free itself of fraud, Carson Block told Bloomberg TV. He added: "The market needs short sellers more than ever, given the amount of games that are being played. AdvertisementMeanwhile, some companies have taken to trying to turn investors against short sellers, Block added. "It's easy to demonize short sellers, as part of the populist messaging, and somehow call us suits," Block said.
Persons: Carson, , Carson Block, Jim Chanos, Chanos, David Einhorn, Elon Musk Organizations: Carson Block, Bloomberg, Service, Muddy Waters, JPMorgan, US Securities, Exchange, Tesla's, Trump Media, Technology Group
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Friday issued another warning about inflation despite recent signs of easing in price pressures. "Therefore, inflation and interest rates may stay higher than the market expects." His comments came after this week's data showed the monthly inflation rate dipped in June for the first time in more than four years, which fueled bets that the Federal Reserve could cut rates soon. Dimon joined many economists in sounding the alarm on the U.S.' burgeoning debt and deficits. The federal government has so far spent $855 billion more than it has collected in the 2024 fiscal year.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Jerome Powell Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, U.S Locations: U.S
Gold eases, but set for weekly gain on Fed rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but were headed for a third straight week of gains as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but were headed for a third straight week of gains as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. "Inflation outlook and interest rate picture have moved in favor of gold this week. As we move closer to a lower interest rate environment, conditions could be ripe for gold to set new record highs before the year is out," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Tim Waterer, KCM, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed Bank, Chicago Fed Bank Locations: U.S
Tech stocks tumbled Thursday, weighing on the broader market after the June CPI report. AdvertisementUS stocks slid on Thursday, weighed down by tech names like Nvidia and Microsoft as the Nasdaq tumbled 2%. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:Inflation clocked in at 3% last month, cooler than expected and marking the second month of encouraging data after a tough first quarter. AdvertisementCommentators were quick to call a September rate cut as all but assured, and the odds of a cut at this month's policy meeting crept up slightly as well. "A September rate cut should be a done deal at this point.
Persons: , Russell, Ed Yardeni, Ron Temple Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Lazard, Fed
Dollar adrift ahead of U.S. inflation test; sterling firms
  + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar fell a touch on Thursday although moves were largely subdued ahead of a U.S. inflation report due later in the day, while sterling firmed on receding expectations for an August rate cut from the Bank of England (BoE). The dollar fell a touch on Thursday although moves were largely subdued ahead of a U.S. inflation report due later in the day, while sterling firmed on receding expectations for an August rate cut from the Bank of England. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill on Wednesday said price pressures in Britain's economy were persistent and that the timing of a first rate cut was an "open question". His colleague Catherine Mann signalled she is unlikely to vote for an interest rate cut in August. Against the greenback, the euro gained 0.04% to $1.0834, and the Aussie dollar rose 0.01% to $0.6754.
Persons: BoE, Huw Pill, Catherine Mann, Carol Kong, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of England, Monetary, ANZ, MPC, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Federal Reserve, U.S, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of New, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Asia, Japan
For passive investors, it's the best of times: They're seeing new highs on the two major cap-weighted indexes — S & P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite — with low volatility. One example is the Invesco S & P 500 Momentum ETF (SPMO) , which tracks the S & P 500 Momentum Index. That index follows the performance of stocks in the S & P 500 that have a high "momentum score." Momentum ETFs in 2024 S & P 500 up 18.1% Invesco S & P Momentum ETF (SPMO) up 39.9% iShares USA Momentum Factor (MTUM) up 28.5% Both ETFs also have concentrated bets. Why momentum is a risky strategy Let the buyer beware: Everyone looks like a genius holding on to winners in up markets.
Persons: Staples, Invesco, Eli Lilly, it's, It's, rebalanced, Rebalancing Organizations: Nasdaq, Tech, YTD Technology, Energy, Services, Momentum, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Broadcom, Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, Costco Locations: rebalancing
Financial experts, however, don't encourage making investment decisions for political reasons as markets tend to react to economic factors that politicians have no control over . Presidential election outcomes don't significantly affect market performance, but many investors still feel nervous about what this year's presidential matchup between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump could mean for their money. "We've got a very stable market," Curtis said. That could make your next trip pricierStill, clients visiting Curtis have expressed concerns about the idea of Trump winning the election. Dating back to 1928, the S&P 500 has returned an average 7.5% in presidential election years, compared to an average 8% in nonelection years, according to an analysis in March from J.P. Morgan Private Bank.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Cathy Curtis, Curtis, We've, Biden, Zers, pricier, Trump, Dan Egan, Egan Organizations: Republican, Democrat, Curtis Financial, Financial, CNBC, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Finance, Trump, Morgan Private Bank, Federal Reserve Locations: Atlanta , Georgia, Oakland , California, J.P
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks climbed higher on Wednesday and were poised to notch another fresh record. Traders were feeling upbeat after Fed Chair Powell delivered slightly dovish guidance on rate cuts before Congress on Tuesday. Investors are pricing in around two rate cuts by the end of the year, though bets on three rate cuts by December rose slightly, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:AdvertisementHere's what else happened today:In commodities, bonds, and crypto:Advertisement
Persons: , Powell, Hogan, Riley Wealth Organizations: Fed, Service, Traders Locations: Here's
US stocks climbed Wednesday, with the S&P 500 closing at a record high. Traders are waiting on the June inflation report, which will be a key input for Fed policy. Investors are anticipating two rate cuts from the central bank by year-end, per the CME FedWatch tool. AdvertisementUS stocks rose on Wednesday as traders waited for upcoming inflation data and took in Powell's testimony before Congress. Still, the outlook for Fed rate cuts was little changed.
Persons: , Powell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq
Read previewThere is perhaps no better example of the hedge fund industry's maturation than Brevan Howard. The $35 billion firm has changed considerably since 60-year-old Alan Howard stepped back from running its day-to-day operations in 2019. Now, Howard — the firm's majority owner — no longer manages money at Brevan. The firm's two biggest funds — the long-running, $11.9 billion Master Fund and the younger, $12.2 billion Alpha Fund — each manage more money now than the entire firm did five years ago. Advertisement"The real challenge is keeping the trading talent," said Nagi Kawkabani, a former Brevan Howard co-CEO told Institutional Investor in 2019.
Persons: , Brevan Howard, Alan Howard, Howard, Howard —, Rishi Shah, Fash, Minal Bathwal, Trifon Natsis, Aron Landry, James Vernon, Jean, Philippe Blochet, Chris Rokos —, Natsis, Landry, Brevan, Nagi Kawkabani, Shah, Shaw, He's, he's Organizations: Service, Business, Fund, Alpha, Credit Suisse, Alpha Fund, Citadel, Bloomberg, Investor, United Arab, Winton Group Locations: Brevan, Ville, Natsis, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Federal Reserve officials use government data to help determine when to raise or lower interest rates. Congress and the White House use it to decide when to extend jobless benefits or send out stimulus payments. But a new study says the integrity of that data is in increasing jeopardy. But that could soon change, the study warns, citing factors including shrinking budgets, falling survey response rates and the potential for political interference. “We’re not there yet, but if we don’t do something, that threat could become a reality, and in the not-too-distant future.”
Persons: , , Nancy Potok, “ We’re Organizations: Federal, American Statistical Association, George Mason University, Urban Institute Locations: United States
Financial markets are slowly starting to absorb the possibility that what was once a toss-up presidential election campaign has taken a notable turn. That has put investors in a quandary of how to handicap what a Trump presidency would look like from an economic and market standpoint. .SPX mountain 2024-06-28 S & P 500 performance since the debate However, the bond market has had a bit more of a reaction. The first Trump presidency and some of his campaign rhetoric nevertheless has led to guesswork about what could be ahead. "This particularly favors financials and there will be an expectation of more M & A approval in a Trump presidency.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, specter, Biden, Trump, Mark Malek, Siebert AdvisorNXT, Handicapping, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Kamala Harris, Harris, Chris Krueger, TD Cowen, Krueger, ABC's George Stephanopoulos, , Sarah Min Organizations: Republican, Trump, Treasury, Bank of, White, Reading, New York Times, Biden, Democrat Locations: Washington
Gold eases from May peak on profit taking
  + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A view of ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold, which are placed in a workroom, at Novosibirsk Refining Plant, Russia's leading gold refining and bar manufacturing plant, in Novosibirsk, Russia on Sept. 15, 2023. Spot gold fell 0.4% at $2,382.17 per ounce as of 0346 GMT, after rising to its highest level since May 22 on Friday. Traders are also pricing in a rising chance of a second rate cut in December. Elsewhere, top consumer China's central bank refrained from gold purchases to its reserves for a second consecutive month in June. "China may have paused their gold purchases, but it remains in demand overall.
Persons: We're, Kyle Rodda, CME's, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Matt Simpson, bullish, Simpson Organizations: Novosibirsk Refining Plant, Capital.com, Federal, Fed Locations: Novosibirsk, Russia, China
The euro slipped on Monday after projections from France's election pointed to a hung parliament amid an unexpectedly strong showing for a left-wing alliance, spawning fresh uncertainty over the country's fiscal outlook. The euro slipped on Monday after projections from France's election pointed to a hung parliament amid an unexpectedly strong showing for a left-wing alliance, spawning fresh uncertainty over the country's fiscal outlook. The yen headed for a third day of gains after rebounding from last week's nearly 38-year trough to the dollar. The euro was 0.06% lower at $1.0827, and earlier slid as much as 0.4% as investors weighed the consequences of a hung French parliament. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 160.70 yen, down from as high as 161.96 on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Emmanuel Macron's, Chris Weston, Macron, Weston, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labour, Conservative, New Popular Front, Le, Traders Locations: Gox
Paramount Agrees to Merge With Skydance
  + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Benjamin Mullin | Lauren Hirsch | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
Paramount’s board on Sunday signed off on a deal to merge with Skydance, according to two people familiar with the negotiations, ushering in a new era for CBS, Nickelodeon and the film studio behind the “Top Gun” and “Mission: Impossible” franchises. Ms. Redstone, Paramount’s board chair, is cashing in much of her ownership in the company she fought to preserve and control. David Ellison, the tech scion behind Skydance, will become the top power broker at Paramount. The Ellisons’ considerable resources was a major selling point for the Redstones, who were seeking to fortify Paramount for the long-term. Paramount has tried to replace its fading cable TV enterprise with streaming businesses like Paramount+, but those efforts are still nowhere near as profitable as traditional TV operations.
Persons: David Ellison, Ellison, Larry Ellison Organizations: Sunday, CBS, Nickelodeon, Paramount, Oracle, Netflix Locations: Hollywood
Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal
Investors have been drawn to Microsoft for its early leadership in the fast-growing artificial intelligence space. Year-to-date Microsoft stock is up roughly 24%, compared to the S & P 500's 15% advance. Excitement for Microsoft as an AI play, along with demand for its cloud computing business, show no signs of slowing. Copilot subscriptions Finally, the company can generate a nice recurring revenue stream from Microsoft 365′s Copilot AI add-on. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella speaks during the Microsoft Build conference at Microsoft headquarters in Redmond, Washington, on May 21, 2024.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Copilot, Satya Nadella, Piper Sandler, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Jason Redmond Organizations: Microsoft, Management, Revenue, . Enterprise, Wall Street, CNBC, AFP, Getty Locations: OpenAI, Microsoft's, Redmond , Washington
Gold inches up after weak data fuels U.S. rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Gold prices drifted higher on Thursday after softer-than-expected U.S. economic data fueled hopes that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as soon as September. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $2,362.10 per ounce, as of 0200 GMT after hitting a near two-week high in the previous session. U.S. economic data on Wednesday, including a weak services and ADP employment reports, showed a slowing economy. "A softer-than-expected ISM services report was the gift that Fed doves have been waiting for ahead of a NFP. Markets are now pricing in a 74% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates at its September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Matt Simpson Organizations: Federal, Traders, NFP, U.S Locations: U.S
Here are a handful of them:1) CampaignsBy the time a presidential election takes place in the United States, the electorate will have already endured months of seemingly endless electioneering — with the entire election campaign process from candidacies and the campaign trail to the actual presidential election and inauguration taking up to two years. In the U.K., the time frame between a prime minister calling a general election to the actual vote is just six weeks. It sounds simple, and usually is, unless there's a "hung parliament" in which no political party wins a majority of seats. In the U.K., political advertising on TV and radio is not allowed, so U.K. voters are subjected to the somewhat quaint "party political broadcasts" during election campaigns. 6) 'Absurd' diversionsBritish political experts note that, unlike in the U.S., where broad political debates tend to remain the key focus, U.K. election campaigns can see more minor or fringe issues dominate the short election campaign.
Persons: Rishi Sunak, Joe Biden, Paul Ellis, Sir Keir Starmer, Stefan Rousseau, Bobby Duffy, Donald Trump, Tom Brenner, , Britain's, Tony Blair, Alastair Campbell, Ben Curtis, Blair, Dan Stevens, Joe Biden's, Trump, Brian Snyder, Keir Starmer, Institute's Duffy, Duffy, Biden, Rodin Eckenroth, Rodin, John Curtice, it's, Ludovic Marin Organizations: Britain's, North Atlantic Council, NATO, South Derbyshire College, Trent, Commons, King's College London, CNBC, Brit, Republicans, U.S, Federal, Former U.S, Republican, Reuters, Electoral Commission, Inverness Royal Academy, Labour, of, Exeter University, Trump . Democratic Party, Reuters Incumbent British, Labour Party, Trump, European, Conservative Party, U.K, UK Ministry of Defence, Royal British, Afp, Getty Locations: Vilnius, Lithuania, United States, Burton, U.S, Britain, Philadelphia, Great Britain, England, Wales, Scotland, British, America, Western Europe, Atlanta , Georgia, Hollywood , California, European Union, Normandy, Ver, Gold, France
The rise of the internet and of Yahoo pushed SoftBank's stock to a peak closing price of 10,111.1 yen on Feb. 18, 2000. After lingering near then-record highs in March 2021, SoftBank's stock fell sharply, alongside other global tech stocks. "Softbank Vision Fund had to write down various investments due to a combination of equity values declining and a tougher private financing environment. Dan Baker, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said a lot of SoftBank's price appreciation comes down to Arm. Baker said the SOTP valuation remains just under 50% this year, meaning SoftBank's stock does not truly reflect the value of its various businesses and investments.
Persons: Kosuke Okahara, Masayoshi Son, Softbank, SoftBank, Son, Oliver Matthew, Paul Golding, Golding, Dan Baker, I'm, Baker, " Baker, . Organizations: ARM, SoftBank, Bloomberg, Getty, Yahoo, Vision, Vision Fund, Beijing, CNBC, Macquarie U.S, Morningstar, Nikkei Locations: Tokyo, British, Japan, U.S, Alibaba
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewNatCap, a UK startup that helps businesses understand their sustainability risks, has raised $10 million in Series A funding. The startup provides businesses with a tech platform to help them understand their risks and opportunities regarding natural issues, from water risk to biodiversity. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers. NatCap CEO Sebastian Leape told Business Insider that a "culture change" in recent years meant sustainability issues were "now top of mind" for businesses.
Persons: , Sebastian Leape, André Hoffmann, David Craig, Leape Organizations: Service, Oxford University, Business, Sustainable Finance, Tesco, Carbon, Norinchukin, Yeo Ventures, Pelican, Oxford Science Enterprises Locations: Europe, Japan
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