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☆ Canada exports rose in October helped by weak dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Exports rose 1.5%, helped by higher exports of medicinal products as well as gold bars and coins to the United States, Statscan said. "Canada's merchandise trade surplus widened in October, with a weaker Canadian dollar providing a helping hand. When expressed in U.S. dollars, Canadian exports were down 1.3% in October, and imports decreased 2.2%, Statscan said. Exports of farm, fishing and intermediate food products rose 10.2% in October to a record-high C$5.5 billion, helped by canola and wheat. The Canadian dollar was trading at 1.3625 to the greenback, or 73.39 U.S. cents, down 0.3% on the day.

☆ Dollar gains broadly as upbeat U.S. data muddles Fed rate hike views
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( John Mccrank | Seher Dareen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The survey followed on the heels of stronger-than-expected job and wage growth data for November released last Friday. "The ISM services PMI data highlighted a U.S. economy that's still showing some strength, despite tighter financial conditions," said Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, an economist at BMO Capital Markets. "While that's good news for the growth outlook, it's not so great for the Fed trying to dampen demand and ease inflation." Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the U.S. central bank could scale back the pace of its rate increases "as soon as December." "I think this issue about 'peak inflation, peak rates, peak dollar' - I think - is slowly turning into a 'persistence of inflation, a persistence of higher-for-longer interest rates," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist at Rabobank.

☆ Russian oil just got hit with sanctions and a price cap after months of lead up. Here's what it means and what happens next.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

If you take anything away from today's newsletter, let it be this: As of today, Russian oil faces a new European Union embargo, as well as a price cap. EU leaders have been debating a price cap for months, but on Friday agreed to a $60-a-barrel level. Some analysts predict Russian oil exports could drop by 1 million barrels per day, or about 20% of its seaborne volume. She told me over a video call from London that, ultimately, oil markets probably won't react dramatically in either direction. What do you think is the most likely outcome of the new sanctions on Russian oil?

☆ U.S. services industry regains steam; factory orders accelerate
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Economists shrugged off a survey from S&P Global confirming its services PMI was stuck in contraction territory in November. Thirteen services industries including construction, healthcare and social assistance, retail trade as well as professional, scientific and technical services reported growth last month. But information, wholesale trade and management of companies and support services reported a decline. Factory ordersIn November, the ISM's measure of services industry employment increased to 51.5 from 49.1 in October. The survey's measure of services industry supplier deliveries fell to 53.8 from 56.2 in October.

☆ The top strategist at BMO Capital Markets says stocks are ready for a multi-year recovery in 2023 after a recession strikes — and these 11 names look attractive right now
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

BMO Capital Markets isn't changing its S&P 500 price target of 4,300 heading into 2023. Here's a look at BMO's 2023 market outlook as well as 11 US stocks to buy now. That environment means active stock-picking — not passive index investing — is now the key to outperformance, Belski wrote. In Belski's base case, S&P 500 earnings will fall 5% in 2023, which would be the biggest decline in corporate earnings since 2015 (excluding 2020). A recession in the US is "almost inevitable" in 2023, Belski wrote.

☆ BMO's Brian Belski sees modest stock-market gains in 2023 on hopes of a tame recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BMO set its S & P 500 base case target for 2023 at 4,300, a little more than 5% above Wednesday's close of 4,080.11. Belski assumes the U.S. suffers a modest economic downturn and that the Fed ends its hiking cycle by May, at the latest. "We think any potential recession this time around will be much tamer," Belski said in a note to clients. The S & P 500 fell into a bear market, and today stands more than 14% lower on the year. He noted that the S & P 500 has averaged a 5.8% gain during years coinciding with a recession while its earnings per share averaged only a 2.7% decline.

Nonetheless, they fueled investor concerns about the future of the REIT, which makes up about 17% of Blackstone's earnings. "People are taking profits at the value Blackstone says their REIT shares are at," said Snyder. As a result, the REIT allowed investors in November to redeem $1.3 billion, equivalent to approximately 43% of investors' repurchase requests. Some analysts said Blackstone's REIT runs the risk of getting caught in a spiral of selling assets to meet redemptions if it cannot regain the trust of its investors. On Blackstone's third-quarter earnings call in October, Gray blamed REIT redemptions on market volatility, which he said had driven away individual investors from active equity and fixed income funds.

☆ The era of liquidity-induced gains is over, and the S&P 500 will just eke out a modest gain next year as the market struggles against Fed messaging, BMO says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

BMO Capital Markets sees a modest gain for the S&P 500 in 2023 but investors will likely travel a rough road to get there. BMO said investors are likely seeing the days of liquidity-induced gains behind them. The firm's 2023 market outlook published this week said investors are likely seeing the days of liquidity-induced gains behind them. The firm put a target of 4,300 on the S&P 500 next year, representing 5% upside from Thursday's level. Earnings for S&P 500 companies may contract by roughly 5% to $220 a share in 2023 from this year given the macro circumstances.

Adobe Analytics expects consumers to spend between $11.2 billion and $11.6 billion on Cyber Monday. Overall, Black Friday sales topped $8.9 billion last year, versus $10.7 billion on Cyber Monday 2021. Meanwhile, e-commerce giant Amazon said sales on Black Friday broke a record, underscoring the appeal of shopping online. Sarah Hymer, a mother of two in Utah, said she hadn’t planned on any in-store Black Friday shopping. Rega, holding multiple bags, said Black Friday prices struck her as “comparable” to a year ago.

[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/Illustration/File PhotoLONDON/SINGAPORE, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The dollar fell sharply against Japan's yen on Monday as investors focused on rare protests in China, which pushed the yuan to a two-week low. China's onshore yuan finished the domestic session around 0.5% lower at 7.199 per dollar, the lowest close since Nov. 10. The offshore yuan fell to a more than two-week low in Asian trading and was last down 0.28% at 7.214. The Australian dollar , often used as a proxy for the yuan, slid 0.67% to $0.671.

[1/2] Banknotes of Chinese yuan and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 29, 2022. China's onshore yuan finished the domestic session around 0.5% lower at 7.199 per dollar, the lowest close since Nov. 10. The offshore yuan fell to a more than two-week low in Asian trading and was last down 0.1% at 7.201. The Australian dollar , often used as a proxy for the yuan, slid 0.7% to $0.671. China's stringent COVID restrictions have taken a heavy toll on its economy, and authorities have implemented various measures to revive growth.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts: Reuters Poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. (Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlook: )That was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. “In more ‘normal’ times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Canada house prices to tumble 17.5% peak to trough, say analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

House prices need to fall 25% from peak to trough in order to make them affordable, according to the median response to an additional question. Reuters Poll - Canada housing market outlookThat was in line with BoC Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers who said this week house prices needed to fall to restore balance to the housing market. A majority of property market experts said the risk of a crash in house prices was low. During the financial crisis, U.S. house prices crashed as much as around 40% but the Canadian market fell only 9% then. "In more 'normal' times before the pandemic, a 30% drop in house prices would be considered a crash.

☆ Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Abercrombie & Fitch, Disney, Best Buy, Zoom and more
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Abercrombie & Fitch – Shares of the retail stock jumped 19% after the apparel retailer beat Wall Street's revenue forecasts for the third quarter and posted unexpected quarterly profit. Deutsche Bank reiterated the stock as buy and said it doesn't see any meaningful changes coming to its direct-to-consumer strategy. Best Buy – Best Buy's stock surged 11% after the consumer electronics retailer beat Wall Street's estimates and maintained its outlook for the holiday period. Demand remains below its pandemic heights, but Best Buy indicated its faring well even as inflation weighs on consumers' pockets. The stock slipped even after the company beat top and bottom line estimates for its latest quarter and better-than-expected comparable store sales.

☆ Nordstrom says sales slowed in past two months; shares fall 9%
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Granth Vanaik | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 22 (Reuters) - Nordstrom Inc (JWN.N) said on Tuesday net sales at its eponymous retail stores fell 3.4% in its third quarter, and overall sales for the company slowed down in the past couple of months, "particularly in geographies with unseasonably warm weather." The company also trimmed its net profit forecast for the fiscal year ending January 2023. In the third quarter, sales in its off-price division — Nordstrom Rack — fell 2%. Nordstrom's adjusted earnings of 20 cents per share topped estimates of 13 cents. It expects an annual profit of $2.13 and $2.43, excluding share repurchase activity, trimmed from $2.45 to $2.75 previously.

☆ Markets are watching for more clues on Fed hikes and the economy in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Investors may be a bit more cautious in the week ahead, with stocks seeking direction in quiet trading and the bond market's warnings about recession getting louder. "That's going to cause its own pressure on markets because markets never look through a profit recession." In the past week, Fed officials maintained their tough tone and some even sounded more hawkish. A rallying stock market is a sign of looser financial conditions. "The stock market is complicating the Fed's objective," said Lyngen.

☆ BMO downgrades Target, citing persistent inventory challenges ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BMO Capital Markets is losing faith in Target 's growth story given the challenges it faces ahead. Bania also lowered BMO's price target on the stock to $165 from $190 a share, suggesting a slight 6% advance from Wednesday's close. Bania views dwindling market share as one of the biggest risks for Target ahead, estimating that the company is on pace to lose more than $3 billion in market share this year and headed for more potential losses long term. Katai slashed the bank's price target to $144 a share from $183, suggesting a 7% downside from Wednesday's close. Year to date, the stock has lost nearly 33%, sitting nearly 40% off its 52-week high.

☆ High interest rates bring winter gloom to Canada's housing market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-15 | by ( Julie Gordon | Megan Rowling | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A for sale sign is displayed outside a home in Toronto, Ontario in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio/File PhotoOTTAWA, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Canada's housing market has gone cold, with buyers sidelined by soaring borrowing costs and sellers holding off listing in hopes of a spring rally, while higher interest rates mean prices need to fall more before any rebound materializes, experts say. "We do have quite a bit of fundamental demand still out there ... but the market just can't clear at current prices because of where interest rates have gone," said Robert Kavcic, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Variable rate mortgages - home loans in which the interest rate fluctuates based on market conditions - have more than tripled since March, with strict stress tests making qualification even tougher. "If investors aren't interested in buying condos, the whole market starts to slow down," he said.

Farmers in both are fighting a losing battle to save the soil that produces our food. By contrast, there's not enough water in the vast Yangtze basin, which produces a third of China's crops. Soil erosion could lead to a 10% loss in global crop production by 2050, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Similarly, other measures such as digging thousands of new wells and encouraging farmers to switch crops to boost yields have limited impact. Options include not tilling soil to reduce erosion, and planting off-season cover crops to prevent erosion and nutrient loss.

[1/4] A signage is seen in the offices of Tapestry, Inc., in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 19, 2021. Accessible luxury brands such as Michael Kors and Ralph Lauren are likely to feel a bigger pinch than higher-priced brands, as their young core customer base looks for deals at the lower end of the fashion spectrum. Ralph Lauren said its holiday quarter revenue would be hit by slowing demand in North America and Europe, where soaring energy costs are also pinching consumer wallets. Tapestry and Ralph Lauren also warned a stronger dollar would hit their earnings. Ralph Lauren shares, which have lost almost a quarter of their value this year, rose about 5% in premarket trading after the company beat second-quarter sales and profit expectations.

☆ Private equity firm TPG reports 60% drop in earnings as asset sales plummet
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( Chibuike Oguh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies Fee-related earnings beat estimatesTPG's stock rises nearly 8%NEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Private equity firm TPG Inc (TPG.O) said on Wednesday its after-tax quarterly distributable earnings fell more than 60% due to a plunge in asset sales across its private equity, growth, real estate and impact businesses. However, TPG's fee-related earnings, a closely watched measure that captures income from management fees, was flat at $121 million. "What we're seeing is that investors don't care so much about performance fees but about fee-related earnings and its growth trajectory," said BMO Capital Markets analyst Rufus Hone. "Fee-related earnings is predictable; every dollar of fee-related earnings is worth $2 of performance fees," Hone added. During the quarter, TPG said its private equity funds appreciated by 2.3%, growth funds rose by 3.8% and impact funds were up 2.9%, though real estate funds depreciated by 0.4%.

Instead, "the onus is still squarely, fully, 100% on the Bank of Canada to tighten," he said. The BoC's policy rate is seen peaking at 4.5% in early 2023. "I think they're going to struggle to see any improvement in the coming fiscal year," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, adding that the fiscal measures were working at a slight crosscurrent to monetary policy. The fact that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government depends on the left-leaning New Democrats to pass legislation like the fiscal update helps explain the new spending, said Jimmy Jean, chief economist at Desjardins. ($1 = 1.3499 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ VIEW Canada cuts 2023 GDP forecast but says economy to avoid recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

TORONTO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Canadian Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland on Thursday unveiled an economic update, slashing 2023 real GDP forecast to 0.7%, but said the economy would avoid a recession, while announcing C$11.3 billion ($8.2 billion) in new spending this fiscal year and next. The so-called Fall Economic Statement also proposes a refundable tax credits for clean technologies, a 2% tax on share buybacks, among others. STORIES: read more read moreLINK:https://budget.gc.ca/fes-eea/2022/report-rapport/FES-EEA-2022-en.pdfCOMMENTSRANDALL BARTLETT, SENIOR DIRECTOR OF CANADIAN ECONOMICS AT DESJARDINS"As expected - big windfall to revenues coming from higher inflation and a stronger economy, tighter labour market." We know that once you add in provinces we're up closer to C$23 billion (in affordability measures)." Reporting by Fergal Smith, Ismail Shakil Editing by Denny ThomasOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Nov 1 (Reuters) - Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) on Tuesday raised its forecast for 2022 sales of its COVID-19 vaccine by $2 billion to $34 billion, and said new deals and drugs in development should help replace future declining vaccine sales and lost revenue from patent expirations. Sales of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID vaccine are down from pandemic highs as many countries have neared the end of their primary vaccination campaigns. Third-quarter sales of the COVID vaccine came in at $4.40 billion, blowing past estimates of $2.60 billion. However, $7.51 billion in sales of Paxlovid, the company's COVID-19 antiviral treatment, fell short of estimates of $7.66 billion. Pfizer reported adjusted earnings of $1.78 per share in the third quarter, beating analysts' estimates by 39 cents.

☆ Pfizer boosts COVID vaccine sales forecast by $2 bln
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Manas Mishra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Nov 1 (Reuters) - Pfizer Inc (PFE.N) on Tuesday raised its forecast for annual sales of its COVID-19 vaccine by $2 billion to $34 billion on demand for Omicron-targeted boosters, helping allay some investor worries over growth for the vaccinations. The U.S. drugmaker's shares rose 2.4% to $447.67 in morning trading as its third-quarter profit beat estimates, mainly due to better-than-expected sales of the vaccine. The upbeat earnings also sent shares of rival COVID-19 vaccine makers higher. Sales of the COVID-19 vaccine have eased from pandemic highs on soft demand for the original shots, sparking concerns over demand over the next few years. Third-quarter sales of the COVID-19 vaccine came in at $4.40 billion, blowing past estimates of $2.60 billion.

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