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☆ Dollar slips as Fed outlook shifts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That's a contrast to Europe where markets see another 50 bp or so to go, and the gap sent the euro surging. Dollar/yen fell 0.7% overnight and was edging lower in the Asian morning at 131.19. "From the foreign exchange perspective, we think that argues for further dollar weakness as the ceiling for the Fed cycle has clearly come down." The risk-sensitive Australian dollar recoiled sharply from a two-week high of $0.6759 to be back at $0.6707 on Thursday morning. The New Zealand dollar also gave up overnight gains, but was firm in morning trade at $0.6238.

☆ Club meeting recap: Tech leads Wall Street higher post-Yellen drop; shares in Pioneer, Wynn jump
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. Macau data helps Wynn Wynn Resorts (WYNN) shares rose more than 2% Thursday, following a positive travel update from the Macao Government Tourism Office. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ London stocks fall ahead of BoE rate decision, banks down
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) fell 0.7%, after recording its highest closing level in more than a week on Wednesday. The focus now shifts to the BoE, which is widely expected to also raise its lending rate by 25 bps at 1200 GMT. "It's highly unlikely that the BoE would diverge from other central banks," said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank. Ahead of its decision on interest rates, the BoE said in a letter to lawmakers that more sharp moves in asset prices could expose weaknesses in parts of Britain's financial system. Informa (INF.L) dropped 2.7% after Morgan Stanley cut its rating on the events organizer's stock to "equal-weight" from "overweight".

☆ First Republic's marginal gains keep stock close to record-low levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 23 (Reuters) - Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) rose 5% on Thursday as they drew the attention of bargain-hunting retail investors, but still hovered near record-low levels on lingering fears about the future of the U.S. regional lender. The stock was the second most traded by retail punters in Wednesday's session and the fifth most popular trade by 10:00 a.m. First Republic's shares have lost nearly 90% of their value this month, the worst performing stock among the members of S&P 1500 regional banks index (.SPCOMBNKS), which has fallen 30.2% during the same period. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday dashed all hopes that U.S. regulators would insure all consumer deposits through the end of the banking crisis, sending First Republic's stock down 15% on the day. Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Citizens, one of the largest U.S. regional banks, is preparing to submit an offer in the auction of the business, which is called SVB Private, the sources said. The FDIC, which now controls the Silicon Valley Bank assets, and Citizens Financial declined to comment. It has since asked for separate offers for SVB Private and Silicon Valley Bank by March 24. SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O), the former parent of Silicon Valley Bank which filed for bankruptcy protection last week, is not part of the process. A big part of it comprises Boston Private, a wealth manager acquired by Silicon Valley Bank in 2021.

☆ Futures climb as hopes of a Fed pause gain steam
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, as expected, on Wednesday but its policy statement no longer said "ongoing increases" would likely be appropriate. ET, Dow e-minis were up 158 points, or 0.49%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 27.5 points, or 0.69%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 123.25 points, or 0.97%. Those pre-market gains helped boost futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq. ET is expected to show a rise in jobless claims last week, hinting at some cooling in labor demand. Reporting by Amruta Khandekar; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ We're 'hands off' on most U.S. regional banks, says investment advisory firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're 'hands off' on most U.S. regional banks, says investment advisory firmJulie Biel of Kayne Anderson Rudnick says the "biggest question" is what the regulatory backlash from the Silicon Valley Bank crisis will be.

ET (1800 GMT), with investors keenly awaiting Chair Jerome Powell's conference at 2:30 p.m. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 16, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidHowever, a scramble by troubled regional U.S. lender First Republic Bank (FRC.N) to secure a capital infusion has kept alive some worries about the banking sector. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.13-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.44-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and six new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 27 new highs and 75 new lows.

The U.S. central bank's two-day policy meeting will end at 2 p.m. ET to gauge the central bank’s rate-hike trajectory. U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the yield on the two-year note, which best reflects interest rate expectations, last at 4.212%. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.56-to-1 ratio on the NYSE a 1.75-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded no new 52-week high and four new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 13 new highs and 34 new lows.

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not yet over, and a significant number of banks will fail within two years, the CEO of hedge fund Man Group (EMG.L) told a Bloomberg conference in London on Wednesday. Asked whether the crisis in the sector was over, Man Group's Luke Ellis told delegates he did not think so. "I think we will have significantly more banks that don't exist in 12-24 months," Ellis said, adding that he thought smaller and regional banks in the United States and challenger banks in Britain could be at risk. Many hedge funds have made money from the banking sector volatility in recent days by betting against banks. Central banks globally have responded to the turmoil with coordinated measures to ensure the flow of cash between banks around the world.

LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not yet over, and a significant number of banks will fail within two years, the CEO of hedge fund Man Group (EMG.L), Luke Ellis, told a Bloomberg conference in London on Wednesday. Asked whether the crisis in the sector was over, Ellis told delegates at the event he did not think so. "I think we will have significantly more banks that don’t exist in 12-24 months," he said, adding that he thought smaller and regional banks in the United States and challenger banks in Britain could be at risk. Ellis said technology such as social media had accelerated the timescale at which concerns about banks could circulate. Many hedge funds have made money from the volatility in the banking sector in recent days by betting against banks, although Ellis said he had no positions in U.S. regional banks.

Last year it breached liquidity requirements at some of its entities after an unsubstantiated social media report sparked client exits. In the U.S., the decision to insure all bank deposits after SVB was shuttered surprised many. QUICKLY DISAPPEARSome in the banking industry play down the risks of another SVB-style downfall spurred by social media. Regulators will also need to monitor social media and develop a set of protocols to guide how they respond, according to Patricia McCoy, a law professor at Boston College. "They need to be looking for any signs of unsubstantiated rumors, panic starting to mount on social media, and they've got to do it around the clock," she said.

The Fed's relentless rate hikes to rein in inflation have been partly blamed for sparking the biggest meltdown in the banking sector since the 2008 financial crisis. For now, Credit Suisse's rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. regional lenders. The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) rallied 3.6%, its largest one-day gain since November. Still, Australia's prudential regulator has started asking the country's banks to declare their exposure to startups and crypto-focused ventures following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, according to the Australian Financial Review. Market cap of US regional banks included in the S&P 500 regional bank indexDeputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo said a review of the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and rival Signature Bank was in order.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Janet Yellen's guarantee to banks comes with a catch
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. But investor confidence is currently so low that any reassuring comment, vague as it might sound, will sound like a promise. Tomorrow, we'll hear from the Federal Reserve and find out whether it's hiking interest rates even amid the turmoil in banks. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Regional banks popped — but can the rally last?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Asia shares bounce gingerly as bank fears linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.4%. Japanese markets were closed for a holiday, which left Treasuries untraded in Asia and lightened currency trade. S&P 500 futures were flat and European futures rose 0.5%. The tense calm follows a Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS that seems, for now, to have cauterised concerns over European financial stability. The broader path for rates, meanwhile, is set to become clearer later in the week when the Fed and Bank of England set policy levels.

NEW YORK, March 21 (Reuters) - Worries over the banking crisis are boosting disparate assets, with traditional safe-havens such as gold, Treasuries and money markets seeing high demand along with more speculative instruments such as tech stocks and bitcoin. The gains have come alongside big moves in assets traditionally perceived as safe-havens during uncertain times. Yields on shorter-dated Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, saw a historic drop last week, while money market funds notched their biggest inflows since April 2020 in the week to March 15, Refinitiv Lipper data showed. Well, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down about 60 basis points from early March,” said Keith Lerner, chief market strategist at Truist Advisory Services, in a Monday report. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

March 21 (Reuters) - Investors on Tuesday took some heart from the rescue of troubled lender Credit Suisse by its Swiss rival UBS (UBSG.S), though concerns lingered about the risk of shockwaves further damaging credit markets and smaller U.S. banks. "The current situation in U.S. regional banks and Credit Suisse has raised concerns about contagion risk," said Grace Tam, chief investment advisor Hong Kong at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. Credit Suisse CEO Ulrich Koerner, who was expected to attend the conference, however, dropped out and the event was closed to media after the weekend rescue. Shares in First Republic Bank (FRC.N) halved on Monday on worries that last week's $30 billion infusion of capital would not be enough. The regulators said owners of this type of debt would only suffer losses after shareholders have been wiped out - unlike at Credit Suisse, whose main regulators are in Switzerland.

☆ Asia stocks bounce gingerly but bank fears lurk
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. futures rose 0.2% in early Asia trade. A Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS has cauterized the immediate concern over European financial stability. But the wipeout of some Credit Suisse bondholders has sent a shockwave through bank debt, and persistent signs of stress at U.S. regional lenders has investors on high alert. Bond markets whipsawed overnight as traders seek to figure out what the bank stress means for rates policy. U.S. interest rate futures have priced in just one more 25 basis point hike before a series of cuts beginning as soon as June.

☆ The End of Market Discipline for Banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( The Editorial Board | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Financial regulators have ignored their post-2008 rule book to contain the latest banking panic. And on Tuesday Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen tore it up by announcing a de facto guarantee of all $17.6 trillion in U.S. bank deposits. Regional bank stocks rallied, but it’s important to understand what this moment means: the end of market discipline in U.S. banking. “Our intervention was necessary to protect the broader U.S. banking system,” Ms. Yellen told the American Bankers Association convention. “And similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the risk of contagion.”

☆ Goldman Sachs expects commodities supercycle
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Julia Payne | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LAUSANNE, Switzerland, March 21 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the U.S. bank's head of commodities said. "As losses mounted, it spilled into commodities," Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday. Currie emphasised the hit was to the supply side rather than demand and he remains very bullish on copper. We have peak supply occuring in 2024...Near term we put (the copper price) at $10,500 and longer term our price target is $15,000 a tonne." Copper hit a record high $10,845 in March 2022.

Unrealized mark-to-market losses in First Republic's loan book and investment portfolio have been an obstacle to clinching an investment, Reuters has reported. A sale of loans to other parties, including private equity firms, is one option under consideration, two of the sources said. While a sale of the entire bank remains possible, First Republic is still currently focused on a capital raise, the third source said. The sources cautioned the situation remained fluid and asked not to be identified because the deliberations are confidential. Shares in First Republic extended gains following the news, up 60% to $19.44.

☆ The S&P 500 is acting as though the bank crisis 'never happened.' 'Fast Money' traders urge caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Those worries eased Tuesday following comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen saying the government will step in if needed to guard the banking sector against further crises. Regional bank stocks surged, and all three of the major indexes notched their second consecutive day of gains. Regardless, "Fast Money" traders were skeptical of the rally, noting the Fed will have to navigate battling higher inflation against a weaker economic outlook. The S & P 500 seems to be trading as if the shakeup in the banking sector "never happened," said Guy Adami of Private Advisor Group. "Because I will tell you, as much as you think these bank problems are over, I don't necessarily think they are."

☆ BlackRock's Rieder says more volatility could 'play through the financial system'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

"My sense is there's still some volatility that's going to play through the financial system." "You've got clearly some additional economic contraction coming from a banking system that is going to pull back on some lending." I think spreads got too tight and I think the market was a little overzealous in all assets," Rieder said. Prior to the failure of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank, Rieder had anticipated the yield would range between 3.50% and 4.25%. Rieder expects the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point and could hike again by another 25 basis points before stopping.

☆ U.S. bank crisis 'unlikely' to spill over to Canada, analyst says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Divya Rajagopal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

read more"The U.S. contagion is unlikely to spill over to Canadian banks as the issues in U.S. are unique and specific to certain business models or lending activities," said James Shanahan, banking analyst with Edward Jones to Reuters. REGIONAL BANK SCRUTINYCanadian banks emerged stronger from the 2008 global financial crisis due to prudent regulations and since built a reputation for financial stability. The Canadian banks have kept their focus on domestic lending and majority of their earnings come from serving local clients. But in recent years, Royal Bank, BMO, TD Bank and CIBC (CM.TO) have expanded into the United States by buying regional lenders to benefit from strong growth in second-tier U.S. cities. However, last week the regional bank's stock was hit after the SVB collapse.

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