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☆ A housing economist shares estimates of where mortgage rates will be by the end of this year and next — and lists the states that may see the most price corrections.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The majority of forecasters estimate mortgage rates will peak at 6.8 to 6.9%. Idaho, Utah, Nevada, Arizona, and Texas may see the most price corrections in housing prices. The hawkish approach has significantly increased anticipated mortgage rates for this time of year, she noted. The good news is, there's a low probability that mortgage rates will peak above 7%, she said. So I think that is always the one segment of the housing market one has to be a little bit more cautious about."

☆ Strategist says she does not anticipate a large credit crunch in the U.S. housing market
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStrategist says she does not anticipate a large credit crunch in the U.S. housing marketUma Moriarity of CenterSquare Investment Management says the U.S. labor market is still very strong and consumers are in a fairly good place.

☆ U.S. Q3 GDP overshot IMF forecasts, but growth volatile -official
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The IMF in its Oct. 11 World Economic Outlook had cut its U.S. growth forecast by 0.7 percentage point, based on the weak Q2 output earlier in the year. Along with other factors, such as rising food and energy costs prompted by Russia's war in Ukraine and tighter monetary policy, the U.S. reduction offset upside surprises in Europe, leaving the IMF's 2022 global growth forecast unchanged at 3.2%. Going forward into next year, the U.S. is slowing and that's never good for the global economy," Chalk said. "In addition to slowing, it's shifting away from goods, and that's sort of exacerbating that effect on the global economy." The IMF has forecast that U.S. growth will decline further to 1.0% in 2023, with global growth falling to 2.7% next year.

☆ Opendoor Technologies lays off about 18% of workforce
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 2 (Reuters) - Property-selling platform Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN.O) is laying off about 550 employees, Chief Executive Officer Eric Wu said on Wednesday. The job cuts will result in an 18% reduction of Opendoor's workforce. Opendoor had already reduced its workforce by more than 830 positions, according to Wu. The company, which was earlier backed by SoftBank Group (9984.T), went public via a reverse merger with a SPAC in 2020. (This story has been refiled to correct grammatical error in paragraph 2)Reporting by Chavi Mehta in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wells Fargo mortgage staff brace for layoffs as U.S. loan volumes collapse
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Hugh Son | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Mortgage volumes at Wells Fargo slowed further in recent weeks, leaving some workers idle and sparking concerns the lender will need to cut more employees as the U.S. housing slump deepens. The bank had about 18,000 loans in its retail origination pipeline in the early weeks of the fourth quarter, according to people with knowledge of the company's figures. Homebuyers have been squeezed and the pace of refinancing has plummeted as borrowing costs surged to more than 7% for a 30-year loan from about 3% a year earlier. And rates may climb further as the Fed is expected to boost its benchmark rate again Wednesday. Among the six biggest U.S. banks, Wells Fargo has historically been the most reliant on mortgages.

☆ Buy these ETFs if you believe the Fed will pivot to a slower tightening pace
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

That means that market rates could fall, even if the Fed continues to hike for the next few months. Bond yields move opposite of price, so the ETFs should go up in value. There are several large ETFs on the market focused on Treasurys, including the iShares' 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) and 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) . Similarly, Vanguard offers the Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT) , which has a fee of just 0.04%. Corporate bonds carry more risk than Treasurys, but should rally if Treasury yields fall.

☆ Rents are starting to drop, but the way we measure inflation means that we could still end up in a nasty recession next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | Alcynna Lloyd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Rent prices are falling across the country. It could be a lifesaver for not only Americans' bank accounts but also the entire US economy as a recession looms. The issue is that it takes time for lower rent prices to filter into the consumer-price index and other widely watched measures of inflation. "The faster those things show up in consumer-price inflation, the faster the inflation steps down, the sooner the Fed will back off." Sahm said the Fed was well aware of the way rent inflation is measured, adding that it "knows this data better than anyone in the world."

☆ The US economy came back to life this summer, but things are still likely to suck next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Mike Schenk, chief economist of Credit Union National Association, said in a statement that the "healthy economic growth will not last." CEOs are pessimistic about the future and the hot labor market is coolingCEOs, for one, aren't feeling too good about the economy. "The labor market continues to be hot, even if it's cooled a little bit since the beginning of this year," Bunker told Insider. "Where we're seeing it does signal that it is sectors normalizing, rather than dramatically pulling back postings because they are concerned about short term economic growth." He noted that excess labor demand "gives you a lot of running room here before the labor market actually gets soft."

☆ The Fed could lay the groundwork for a year end rally in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The coming week is also the busiest of the corporate earnings season, with about a third of the S & P 500 companies releasing results. "Historically, the market waits for the last Fed rate hike to be introduced and then the market climbs higher. The S & P 500 was up more than 8.8% for the month. The Dow was up 5.7% on the week, the S & P 500 was up 5.7% and the Nasdaq was up 2.2%. The 50-day moving average is 3,841 for the S & P 500, and it was well above it Friday afternoon for the second time in the past week.

☆ Premarket stocks: The Fed is killing the housing market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

This ultra-resilient economy stands in the face of the Federal Reserve’s aggressive attempts to quell inflation by slowing growth through aggressive interest rates. Those higher rates, fueled by the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented campaign of hiking interest rates to tame soaring inflation, are beginning to choke the housing market. “The surge in mortgage rates and extremely high housing prices has led to massive pullback in first time home purchasing and has pushed investors to the side. But housing is a bellwether for the rest of the economy, and these contractions will inevitably weigh on broader US growth. Alphabet (GOOG) and Facebook parent Meta Platforms (META) fell short of earnings expectations last quarter, citing a slowing digital ad market.

☆ Home prices cooled at a record pace in August, S&P Case-Shiller says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Prices in August were 13% higher nationally compared with August 2021, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. "The forceful deceleration in U.S. housing prices that we noted a month ago continued in our report for August 2022," wrote Craig Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI in a release. These data show clearly that the growth rate of housing prices peaked in the spring of 2022 and has been declining ever since." Leading the price gains in August were Miami, Tampa and Charlotte, with year-over-year increases of 28.6%, 28% and 21.3%, respectively. He also noted that higher home prices combined with higher interest rates are keeping would-be sellers from listing their homes.

☆ 2-year Treasury yield tops 4.6% as recession fears grow louder
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 4.18% on Thursday, reaching level last seen over 14 years ago in mid-2008. It was last up by 3.8 basis points to 4.167%. The yield on the policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury was last at 4.612% after rising by six basis points to levels last noted in 2007. The yield on the German 10-year bund was last up by around 8 basis points to 2.448%, levels last seen in 2013. Meanwhile, the British 10-year gilt yield was up 9 basis points to 3.964% amidst economic turmoil in the U.K.

☆ What Cramer is watching Thursday — Tesla slides, IBM surprises, Danaher rolls on
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-20 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

IBM — A truly good quarter with excellent numbers when it comes to mainframe and hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence. Club holding Danaher (DHR) beat and raise ... no slowdown, all systems go ... company says growth was broad-based across all segments of the company. Company beat top and bottom line estimates as travel demand remains strong. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

The U.S. central bank is likely to raise rates by 75-basis points for the fourth straight time this year in November. "That probably won't be coming until we start to see some weakness in the labor market, which is helping fuel inflation pressures." Dow components Procter & Gamble Co and Travelers Companies Inc (TRV.N) rose 3.4% and 2.6%, respectively, after the companies posted better-than expected quarterly profit. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.56-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.92-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded two new 52-week highs and five new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 18 new highs and 100 new lows.

☆ U.S. housing starts fall in September; building permits rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Housing starts dropped 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.439 million units last month. Data for August was revised down to a rate of 1.566 million units from the previously reported 1.575 million units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast starts would come in at a rate of 1.475 million units. Permits for future home construction rose 1.4% to a rate of 1.564 million units in September. Residential fixed investment declined at its steepest pace in two years in the second quarter, contributing to the second straight quarterly drop in gross domestic product during that period.

☆ A curious rally is occurring Tuesday in one of the hardest hit stock groups
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The bond market splashes some cold water on the stock market's attempt at upside follow-through to Monday's strong but familiar one-day pop. It happened just as the S & P 500 revisited the "island" left by its early-October rally. The October high of 3,806 remains an initial mile-marker with tests all the way up to the 200-day average around 4,150. This is a precondition for a serious rally that challenges the entrenched downtrend, but not in itself enough to make one happen. It's good to have a high wall of worry for stocks to climb, barring serious market instability.

☆ October's wild trading could give way to a new stock rally, as earnings roll out in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

But Emanuel sees the chance for a 17% to 20% rally in the S & P 500. The S & P 500 was down about 0.9% for the week, as of Friday afternoon, and it was hovering just above 3,600. S & P 500 earnings are expected to grow by 3.6% for the third quarter, based on actual reports and estimates, according to Refinitiv. Without the boost from more than doubling profits from energy companies, S & P earnings would decline by 3.1%. Week ahead calendar Monday Earnings: Bank of America , Bank of NY Mellon, Charles Schwab 8:30 a.m.

☆ Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel warns the Fed will drive the economy into a depression if they wait for core inflation to fall back to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Not even September's stubbornly high CPI report could change Jeremy Siegel's view that the Fed needs to stop hiking interest rates. "If the Fed waits for the core to get down to 2% year-over-year, it will drive the economy into a depression," Siegel warned. "If the Fed waits for the core [inflation] to get down to 2% year-over-year, it will drive the economy into a depression," Siegel told CNBC on Thursday. Housing, which is almost 50% of the core rate, is the most distorted of all," Siegel explained. Now they're over correcting with interest rate hikes as inflation is high, but is leading indicators show signs it is falling.

☆ Goldman Sachs favors Tesla and another big automaker even during an economic slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for electric car sales and believes Tesla and General Motors will benefit from the trend. The Inflation Reduction Act , signed by President Joe Biden in August, will benefit carmakers such as Tesla and GM with $7,500 worth of tax credits per car, according to Goldman. Goldman said it now expects Tesla to make 2.4 million cars worldwide in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 2.275 million. According to the report, the tax credits will also benefit GM and Ford , although only "slightly." Housing sales figures, which are also strongly correlated to vehicle sales, point toward a gloomy picture , according to Goldman.

☆ Key inflation measure climbs to 40-year high as Fed efforts ring futile and shoppers brace for more pain
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — rose to a one-year rate of 6.6%, the highest since 1981. Housing counts for roughly one-third of the average household's spending and counts for an even larger slice of core inflation. While gas and food inflation has generally eased up from levels seen earlier in 2022, housing costs are taking their place. Accelerating core inflation signals the Fed's rate hikes aren't yet weighing on overall price growth, and that it's more than gas and food prices that are keeping inflation elevated. Yet rising core inflation underscores just how hard it will be for the US to put historic price growth behind it.

☆ How Freddie Mac is helping renters use their on-time rent payments to build credit and achieve homeownership
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Sponsor Post | Created Insider Studios With Freddie Mac | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In this challenging economic environment, Freddie Mac has implemented two new initiatives that can help strengthen renters' ability to build credit and achieve homeownership using their history of on-time rent payments. Yet, unlike homeowners who make regular mortgage payments, renters generally do not see their on-time rent payments reflected in their credit scores. Worse yet, the most common way rent payments impact credit scores are when missed rental payments go into collection. After enrollment, the renter's on-time rent payments are reported to the credit bureaus each month. Since Freddie Mac began this initiative last year, 86,000 households across more than 900 multifamily properties have enrolled.

☆ U.K. Housing Market Heads for Mortgage-Rate Shock
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Josh Mitchell | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON—The U.K. is about to sustain the biggest shock to its housing market since the 2008 financial crisis, economists say, with hundreds of thousands of British homeowners about to see monthly mortgage payments soar in the coming months. The U.K. is vulnerable to rising mortgage rates because unlike in the U.S., where the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage prevails and is typically backstopped by government-backed lenders, most mortgages carry rates that reset after two or five years.

☆ UK mortgage rates are soaring: Here's what you need to know as a first-time buyer
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Uncertainty around the U.K. housing and mortgage market has spread among first-time buyers. Unfortunately, a number of other factors are simultaneously making their lives harder: namely, inflation, interest rates and mortgage market disruption," he told CNBC Make It. However, what they have saved on SDLT [stamp duty] will likely be eaten up on higher mortgage rates pretty quickly," he said. So, what about mortgage rates? This could go up even further, Nicholas Mendes, a technical mortgage manager at mortgage broker and advisor John Charcol, believes.

☆ Fed's preferred gauge shows inflation accelerated even more than expected in August
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

On a year-over-year basis, core PCE increased 4.9%, more than the 4.7% estimate and up from 4.7% the previous month. Including gas and energy, headline PCE increased 0.3% in August, compared with a decline of 0.1% in July. Personal income rose 0.3% in August, the same as July and in line with the estimate. After-tax income increased just 0.1% after rising 0.5% the previous month, while inflation adjusted spending rose 0.1%. Food prices rose 0.8% while energy prices slid 5.5%.

☆ Mortgage Rates Rise to 6.7%, Highest Since 2007
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Charley Grant | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Existing-home sales have dropped for seven months in a row through August. Mortgage rates rose to their highest level in more than 15 years, a new high since the 2008-09 financial crisis that adds pressure to the already cooling U.S. housing market. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.7%, according to a survey of lenders released Thursday by Freddie Mac . lt was the highest rate since July 2007 and marked the sixth week in a row of rising rates. A year ago, rates were 3.01%.

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