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☆ P&G, Constellation Brands see solid U.S. demand, even as prices rise — a key reason we're shareholders
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Constellation Brands "Consumer demand for our products remains strong even in a challenging macro environment," Newlands said. Procter & Gamble Inflation continues to weigh on consumers and impact global sales volumes at P & G, CFO Andre Schulten said Thursday. P & G last month delivered solid fiscal second-quarter results , in part through raising prices by as much as 10% on some products. Constellation Brands, meanwhile, continues to demonstrate sustained demand for its leading beer brands. Trucks with Constellation Brands Inc. Corona and Modelo beer sit during a delivery in the Zona Rosa neighborhood in Mexico City, Mexico.

Regional rival Air New Zealand Ltd (AIR.NZ) also reported a swing to profit in the first half ended Dec. 31 on Thursday, along with a muted outlook. Qantas Chief Executive Alan Joyce said cost of living pressures would hit discretionary spending "at some point" but so far the airline expected robust demand into mid-2024 at least. Qantas said it was facing delays of up to six months in new aircraft deliveries from Airbus SE (AIR.PA) alongside other airlines around the world. The Australian carrier said it would bolster its fleet by acquiring some older Airbus planes and exercising nine options for A220 purchases to help meet travel demand growth. "Outlook for RASK is to reduce, however off what we estimate were elevated levels," said Citi analysts in a client note.

☆ North Korea paper calls outside aid 'poisoned candy', urges self-reliance
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Hyonhee Shin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SEOUL, Feb 22 (Reuters) - North Korea's official newspaper said on Wednesday that relying on external aid to cope with food shortages would be equal to taking "poisoned candy", urging economic self-reliance despite deepening hardships amid sanctions and coronavirus lockdowns. Most U.N. agencies and Western relief groups have since left North Korea, with China remaining one of the few sources of external food assistance. "It is a mistake to try to boost the economy by accepting and eating this poisoned candy," the commentary said. "Food production dropped from last year, and there is a possibility of distribution issues due to a change in their food supply and distribution policy," a ministry official told reporters. Unification Minister Kwon Young-se has said Pyongyang had asked the U.N. food agency, the World Food Programme, to provide support but there was no progress because of differences over monitoring issues.

☆ Lloyds full-year profit flat as bad loan charge weighs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) reported flat annual profit for 2022 on Wednesday, as a jump in income driven by higher interest rates was offset by mounting bad loan provisions. Britain's biggest mortgage lender reported pretax profit of 6.9 billion pounds ($8.4 billion), unchanged on the prior year and in line with analyst forecasts compiled by the bank. The bank announced it would pay a 1.6 pence per share final dividend and a share buyback of up to 2 billion pounds, taking total shareholder returns for 2022 up to 3.6 billion pounds. Lloyds set aside 1.5 billion pounds over the year to cover potential defaults, compared to a 1.4 billion pound release of provisions in 2021 as the economy rebounded from COVID-19 lockdowns. Lloyds' revenue leapt 14% to 18 billion pounds and it raised its medium and long-term outlook for returns.

☆ Another Stock Market Crash Coming, Wall Street's Top Investors Warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +12 min

This elation has lulled Wall Street into a false sense of security, according to the investing world's elite who I've spoken with over the past few weeks. It's like all the good little boys and girls on Wall Street asked for a rally for Christmas and got it. He added that nonprofessional retail investors' strong return to the market indicated an unsustainable rally. Anytime Wall Street has forgotten that over the past year, it has gotten punished. And that means Wall Street will eventually have to open its eyes, take its fingers out of its ears, and watch this bear-market rally fall apart.

☆ Supply-Chain Headaches Ease for Many Companies
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Paul Berger | Liz Young | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +4 min

Supply-chain snarls are fading from among the top challenges facing some U.S. companies as freight congestion eases, shipping costs fall and factories in Asia are freed from Covid-19 lockdowns. The rising costs and lengthy transit times pushed some companies to cut back on slower-selling products and raise prices. Today, freight congestion has cleared and ocean shipping costs have fallen close to prepandemic levels. Mr. Bergman said the decline was “partially offset by 40 basis points of favorable supply-chain impact driven by lower freight costs, which more than offset product cost headwinds during the quarter.”Some companies said they still have a way to go before supply-chain challenges are resolved. And Ford Motor Co. Chief Executive Jim Farley told a virtual town hall on Feb. 9 that supply-chain problems were continuing to hamper the company’s progress.

Woolworths and smaller rival Coles Group Ltd (COL.AX) have experienced wild swings in Australian consumer behaviour since COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020 sparked grocery stockpiling. As with Coles' interim result reported on Tuesday, the Woolworths profit gain was helped by a sharp decline in COVID-19 related expenses. Woolworths shares were up 2% by midsession, against a 0.3% dip in the broader benchmark(.AXJO), as analysts cheered the prospect of profit margin growth at a company exposed to rising supply costs. "Momentum in the key Australian Food business remains solid, with sales growth rates better than expected in early 2H23," E&P Financial retail analyst said Phillip Kimber in a client note. Woolworths declared an interim dividend of 46 Australian cents per share, compared with 39 Australian cents a year earlier.

Warburg has approached a number of Chinese investors including local government-backed entities and state-backed financial institutions for the new yuan fund, the people with knowledge of the matter said. The U.S. private equity (PE) firm plans to primarily focus on the healthcare and industrial technology sectors in China with the yuan fund, one of the people said. "RMB (yuan) funds are relatively independent and self-sustainable," he said. Sensitive sectors will remain closed to global private equity groups even if they raise yuan funds, she added. Emerging markets-focused Affirma Capital is also targeting a 2 billion yuan raising in its debut fund and reached first close at 1.5 billion yuan by end-2022, a person close to the situation said.

☆ G20 watchdog says commodity market concentration poses threat to wider economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The FSB, which coordinates financial rules for G20 economies, said that forced governments to offer liquidity to some cash-strapped market participants. But fallout from the surge in nickel prices echoed concerns over large, concentrated positions and opacity in commodities more generally. The commodities market adapted to stress by switching to opaque over-the-counter (OTC) or off-exchange contracts where margin requirements are less strict, making ties between commodities and banks more complex, the report said. FSB Commodities Graphic 1The FSB said vulnerabilities in commodities are similar to those in non-bank financial intermediaries as economies went into COVID-19 lockdowns, and are now being addressed. FSB Commodities Graphic 2Reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Kirsten DonovanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Oil Demand to Hit New Record This Year as China Reopens, IEA Says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Will Horner | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A resumption of international travel across Asia was largely behind the increase in oil demand this year, the International Energy Agency said. The world will burn more oil than ever this year, the International Energy Agency forecast, as China’s emergence from Covid-19 lockdowns returns global crude demand to its upward, prepandemic trajectory. The Paris-based energy watchdog said in a monthly report that it expects oil demand to grow to a record 101.9 million barrels a day this year, propelled almost entirely by booming demand in Asia. The figure is 200,000 barrels a day more than the IEA was forecasting last month.

Feb 15 (Reuters) - Finnair (FIA1S.HE) reported a second straight quarterly operating profit on Wednesday as the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns eases on its key Asian business, and said it looked forward to potentially "huge" demand from the Chinese market. In the fourth quarter, 31.2% of its passenger revenue came from Asian traffic, versus 41.1% in the same period in 2019. Finnair said it expects to significantly increase its 2023 revenue compared with the previous year, but not yet to reach pre-pandemic levels. Its comparable operating profit reached 17.9 million euros ($19.2 million) in the fourth quarter, against a loss of 65.2 million a year earlier. Finnair shares were up 1.1% at 0.5345 euros by 1506 GMT, after rising as high as 0.5520, their highest since February 2022.

☆ U.S. home builder confidence extends rebound in February, NAHB says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 15 (Reuters) - Confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a second straight month in February - and by much more than economists had anticipated - in a fresh signal the housing market was turning a corner after last year's huge slump. The reading - the highest since September - was also higher than all 33 projections in a Reuters survey of economists, which had a median estimate of 37. A reading below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor rather than good. Moreover, it appears that the peak in mortgage rates has passed, said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. NAHB said all four regions saw improved sentiment and the index tracking expectations for future sales rose for a third month.

☆ Fund managers rush into emerging stocks and cut cash - BofA survey
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The survey of 299 fund managers, with a combined $847 billion in assets under management, found investors were still broadly cautious, but less so than been in recent months. Just 24% predict a recession compared to 77% who did in November, according to the survey conducted in the week to Feb. 9. Investors remain net overweight cash and underweight equities, but a combined index that measures growth expectations, cash allocations and equity allocations improved to its highest level in a year. "(Fund manager survey) investors remain pessimistic in February but to a lesser degree, with all key measures of sentiment improving (month on month) and shift in positioning highlighting stronger risk appetite," BofA analysts said in a note. It also found that "long China stocks" was now the most crowded trade along with long investment grade bonds, replacing long US dollar cash.

☆ The worst is over for stocks but the bull market is 'stuck in traffic', Wells Fargo says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks have rebounded in 2023, with the benchmark S&P 500 advancing almost 8%. "We see neither a bull nor a bear market, just a market," analysts said. "We see neither a bull nor a bear market, just a market," a team of analysts led by Chris Harvey wrote in a Monday research note titled "Bear Exits, but Bull Stuck in Traffic". Wells Fargo pointed to a narrowing in investment-grade credit spreads as one sign that the bear market is coming to an end. Read more: Stocks are back in a bull market as global economic outlook is improving, says market veteran Ed Yardeni

Surging Shanghai metal stocks have injected an element of doubt into the bull narrative and the LME Index is now showing year-to-date gains of only 3% after a February pull-back. Shanghai Futures Exchange stocks of aluminium, copper and zincSEASONAL SURGEMetals bulls have been nervously watching the fast build in Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) stocks over the past few weeks. Copper stocks have grown equally dramatically, from 69,268 tonnes to 242,009 tonnes over the same period. It is currently assessed by Shanghai Metal Market at a bombed-out $22.50 a tonne, down from an October high of $152.50. WAIT AND WATCHIt's difficult to say until China's seasonal stocks pattern plays out in full.

☆ Analysis: Oil rebound more likely this year, $100 a barrel possible, OPEC sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

OPEC and OPEC+ do not publish oil price forecasts and do not have a price target. Officials and ministers from OPEC and OPEC+, are often reluctant to discuss the direction of prices on the record. Reuters spoke privately to five more OPEC country officials about the prospect of $100 oil. The IEA, which represents 31 countries including top consumer the United States, did not immediately reply on Friday to a request for comment on what $100 oil would mean for its members. In November, Birol said $100 oil was a real risk for the global economy.

Citi's economic surprises index for China is now at its highest level since May last year. This may surprise no one, given how beaten down expectations were before Beijing's sudden 180 degree turn on its zero-COVID policy in December. Inflation and inflation expectations around the world may be moderating, but policymakers continue to talk tough. India's central bank on Wednesday raised rates as expected, but surprised markets by leaving the door open to further tightening, following Australia's example on Tuesday. Meanwhile, lending figures in the coming days are expected to show a significant increase in activity in January.

☆ The outlook for Wynn Resorts hasn't been this good since the pandemic started
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wynn Resorts (WYNN) reported promising fourth-quarter results Wednesday and even better guidance as the casino operator looks to profit from China's reopening. Along with a rebounding Macau, the casino operator's Las Vegas and Boston operations posted strong results that have continued into the current quarter. The near-term outlook for Wynn is as bright as it's been since the start of the pandemic. For the full year, Las Vegas generated $816 million of normalized adjusted property EBITDA, and management said it's "confident that this is an all-time record for a standalone Las Vegas Strip property". Wynn Las Vegas remains closed as a result of the statewide shutdown due to the continuing spread of the coronavirus on April 27, 2020 in Las Vegas, Nevada.

☆ Volkswagen boosts earnings in 2022, high inventory drags down cash flow
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( Victoria Waldersee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Earnings of 22.5 billion euros ($24.11 billion) put Volkswagen at the higher end of the 7-8.5% margin it had forecast in March of last year, with sales beating 2021 figures at around 279 billion euros compared with 250.2 billion the year prior. Still, net cash flow came to only around 5 billion euros, under the target of matching 2021's 8.6 billion euros, which the company blamed on an unstable supply chain leaving it sitting on high inventories of unfinished goods, supplies and materials. "Current planning for 2023 suggests that this year-end 2022 increase in working capital will largely reverse during the year," it added in its statement. Volkswagen also warned in January that the outlook for 2023 remained clouded by weak economies and supply-chain shortages. ($1 = 0.9331 euro)Reporting by Victoria Waldersee in Berlin Editing by Thomas Escritt and Matthew LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Volkswagen earnings meet forecast, inventory weighs on net cash flow
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) reaped an 8.1% earnings margin in 2022, at the upper end of its outlook, but net cash flow was far lower than hoped as supply chain issues left the carmaker weighed down with unfinished goods and raw materials, it said on Tuesday. Volkswagen, which is due to report full-year results on March 14, said in a preliminary announcement that sales over the year were around 279 billion euros ($298.95 billion), up from 250.2 billion in 2021, with operating profit at 22.5 billion euros. Net liquidity in the automotive division was around 43 billion euros, including around 16 billion euros in cash inflows from the IPO of sportscar brand Porsche in September 2022. Volkswagen had warned in October that supply chain troubles were the new norm after reporting stagnated earnings in the third quarter. ($1 = 0.9334 euros)($1 = 0.9333 euros)Reporting by Victoria Waldersee, editing by Thomas EscrittOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Swiss to vote on preventing cashless society, pressure group says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Feb 6 (Reuters) - Swiss citizens will get the chance to try to ensure their economy never becomes cashless, a pressure group said, after collecting enough signatures by Monday to trigger a popular vote on the issue. There is no evidence of moves towards a cashless society by Swiss authorities. FBS said it had garnered over 111,000 signatures in support of the measure, above the 100,000 needed to trigger a popular vote. Under Switzerland's system of direct democracy, the proposal would become law if approved by voters, though government and parliament would decide how that law was implemented. Reporting by John Stonestreet; Editing by Emelia Sithole-MatariseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ North Korea ruling party meeting to address 'urgent' agricultural needs
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SEOUL, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Leading members of North Korea's ruling party will meet this month to discuss the "urgent" task of improving the country's agricultural sector, as international experts say food insecurity has worsened amid sanctions and COVID-19 lockdowns. Last month the U.S.-based 38 North programme, which monitors North Korea, said in a report that "food availability has likely fallen below the bare minimum with regard to human needs," with food insecurity at its worst since the famines of the 1990s. "Resolving North Korea’s chronic food insecurity would require, among other things, strengthening property rights, opening and revitalising the industrial and service sectors of the economy, and embracing an export-oriented model," the 38 North report said. North Korea is under strict international sanctions over its nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programmes. Those lockdowns have partially eased in recent months, with some trade resuming between North Korea and Russia and China, though at still limited levels.

☆ Blackouts, currency dives and corruption: Pakistan's economy is on the brink of collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Sajjad Qayyum | Afp | Getty ImagesPakistan's economy is on a cliff-edge. These are just the latest shocks amid months of crisis as endemic government corruption, depleted foreign reserves and crippling debt have sent Pakistan's economy spiraling. More than 30% of Pakistan's total foreign debt is owed to China, according to the IMF. An aerial view of the commercial district of Pakistan's port city of Karachi on January 27, 2023. Asif Hassan | Afp | Getty Images

☆ Estée Lauder Sales Hit Again by China’s Covid Lockdowns
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Dean Seal | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Estée Lauder tempered its outlook for the second half of its fiscal year. Estée Lauder Cos. reported declining sales for a third consecutive quarter as Covid-19 lockdowns in China and retailers tightening their inventories continued to weigh on its business. The New York-based cosmetics company, with brands from Clinique to M.A.C., on Thursday also tempered its outlook for the second half of its fiscal year amid a slower-than-expected rebound in travel-related retail sales.

☆ Okta to Lay Off 5% of Staff After Pandemic Hiring Spree
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Will Feuer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The spread of Covid-19 led to a surge in demand for Okta’s identity-verification technology. Business-software provider Okta Inc. said it is laying off about 300 employees, or 5% of staff, joining the spate of technology companies that are cutting costs following a pandemic-fueled growth spurt. Chief Executive Todd McKinnon said Okta made decisions last year that were based on demand trends experienced in 2021.

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