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Bob Doll thinks a mild recession will hit the US economy sometime in the near-to-mid future. Outside of the stock market, Doll also thinks bonds are relatively attractive compared to last year. Within the bond market, he likes Treasurys most, with 10-year yields offering more than a 4% coupon. A 1.5% 10-year Treasury is a bad deal, and of course bonds have sold off hard," he said. Treasury bonds can be bought via a brokerage or through TreasuryDirect.
Persons: Bob Doll, Bob Doll isn't, Doll, Phillips, refiners Organizations: Conference, BlackRock, Valero, Aaa, Treasury Locations: HMOs, TreasuryDirect
The extraordinary activist-investor interest in Salesforce (CRM) eased further in the second quarter, according to the latest regulatory filings from influential Wall Street pros. His firm still owned about 2 million Salesforce shares as of June 30. Tepper also bought 2.3 million shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and 480,000 shares of Apple (AAPL) during the second quarter. As a result, Appaloosa's holdings as of mid-August may differ significantly from the conclusion of the second quarter. GOOGL YTD mountain Alphabet YTD performance Bets on Google's parent company, Alphabet (GOOGL), varied in the second quarter.
Persons: Dan Loeb's, Jeff Smith's, Salesforce, Jeffrey, Starboard's Jeff Smith, Smith, he's, 13Fs, it's, Marc Benioff, Mason Morfit, Paul Singer's Elliott, Elliott, Elliott —, Nelson Peltz's, Bob Iger, Peltz, David Tepper, Tepper, Bill Ackman's, Seth Klarman, Loeb, Klarman, Stanley Druckenmiller, Druckenmiller, Eli Lilly, That's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Kim Kulish Organizations: Inclusive Capital, CNBC, Paul Singer's Elliott Management, Constellation, Club, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, DIS, Disney, Management, Walt Disney Co, Peltz, Nvidia, Appaloosa Management, Microsoft, Micro Devices, Apple, AMD, Bill Ackman's Pershing, Capital Management, Oracle, Duquesne Family Office, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Corbis, Getty Locations: Salesforce, Tuesday's
Georgia is a rare state that gives pardon power to an independent board instead of the governor. The board also doesn't have the power to grant preemptive pardons, which is bad news for Trump. Unlike in his two federal criminal cases, Trump can't expect a Republican president to pardon him before or after he goes to trial. Nor can he rely on a Republican governor in Georgia to pardon him and get rid of the criminal charges. Georgia is one of five states that doesn't grant pardon power to the governor.
Persons: Trump, Fani, he'll, Ronald Carlson, They're, Carlson, Republicans — Georgia hasn't Organizations: Trump, Service, Republican, Paroles, University of Georgia School of Law, Republicans, Democrat, Brookings Institution Locations: Georgia, Wall, Silicon, Fulton County
A general view of the facade of Banco de la Nacion Argentina (Bank of the Argentine Nation), in Buenos Aires, Argentina December 7, 2021. The official FX rate will be fixed at 350 pesos per dollar until the October elections, the central bank said. The country's sovereign dollar bonds fell as much as 2 cents on the dollar, with the 2038 note leading the slide, according to MarketAxess data. Latin America's third-largest economy has been grappling with a severe economic crisis with sky-high inflation and falling central bank reserves. A candidate needs 45% of the Oct. 22 vote to win outright or 40% and a 10-point lead over second place.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Javier Milei, William Jackson, overvalued, Sunday's, Goldman Sachs, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Ricardo Delgado, Eliana Raszewski, Rodrigo Campos, Jorge Otaola, Medha Singh, Adam Jourdan, Bernadette Baum, John Stonestreet, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: de la Nacion Argentina, Bank of, Argentine, REUTERS, LONDON, Capital Economics, Investment, JPMorgan, Gross, Milei, Peronist, Economy, Analytica, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Qatar, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Agustin Marcarian BUENOS AIRES, MERV, Argentine, refinance, Washington, Rosario
Russian c.bank to hold emergency rate meeting as rouble tumbles
  + stars: | 2023-08-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A Russian rouble banknote is seen in front of a descending and rising stock graph in this illustration taken March 1, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoMOSCOW, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank will hold an extraordinary meeting on Tuesday to discuss the level of its key interest rate, it said on Monday, as the sharply weakening rouble prompted calls for higher borrowing costs. President Vladimir Putin's economic adviser rebuked the central bank on Monday as the rouble slid past 101 per U.S. dollar, blaming loose monetary policy in a sign of growing discord among Russia's monetary authorities. The bank, whose key rate is currently 8.5%, had been scheduled to hold its next meeting on rates on Sept. 15. The rouble pared its losses and firmed back to below 100 per U.S. dollar after the central bank announced Tuesday's meeting.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Vladimir Putin's, Alexander Marrow, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Moscow
A general view of the facade of Banco de la Nacion Argentina (Bank of the Argentine Nation), in Buenos Aires, Argentina December 7, 2021. REUTERS/Agustin MarcarianBUENOS AIRES/LONDON, Aug 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's markets face an election hangover on Monday after a shock primary vote win for far-right libertarian Javier Milei - who wants to axe the central bank and dollarize the economy - shook up the race towards presidential elections in October. Rock-singing, wild-haired economist and lawmaker Milei far outperformed forecasts to win some 30% of the vote, the largest share with over 90% of ballots counted. Latin America's third-biggest economy has been grappling with a severe economic crisis with sky-high inflation and falling central bank reserves. A candidate needs 45% of the Oct. 22 vote to win outright or 40% and a 10-point lead over second place.
Persons: Agustin Marcarian, Javier Milei, Milei, Diego Pereira, Milei's, Goldman Sachs, Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Ricardo Delgado, Eliana Raszewski, Jorge Otaola, Adam Jourdan, Stephen Coates, Bernadette Baum Organizations: de la Nacion Argentina, Bank of, Argentine, REUTERS, LONDON, Investment, JPMorgan, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Gross, Peronist, Economy, Analytica, International Monetary Fund, Qatar, Thomson Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Agustin Marcarian BUENOS AIRES, U.S, Argentine, refinance, Washington, Rosario
The inverted yield curve and The Conference Board's LEI are two indicators that inform his view. Instead, investors should be paying attention to indicators like the Treasury yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and money growth. Here's the yield curve. And the start of a recession typically comes a bunch of of months after the yield curve inverts. The yield curve didn't invert until less than a year ago.
Persons: Bob Doll, LEI, Doll, Wall, — Bank of America's Michael Gapen, Michael Feroli —, we're, Louis, It's, Rosenberg Research's David Rosenberg, Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Greg Boutle, Tom Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, — Bank of America's, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Louis Investors, Deutsche Bank, Bloomberg, BNP, Institute for Supply, Institute for Supply Management, of Labor Statistics Locations: Wells
A man types into a keyboard during the Def Con hacker convention in Las Vegas, Nevada, U.S. on July 29, 2017. REUTERS/Steve Marcus/File PhotoWASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - A U.S. cyber safety body will review issues relating to cloud-based identity and authentication infrastructure that will include an assessment of a recent Microsoft (MSFT.O) breach that led to the theft of emails from U.S. government agencies, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said on Friday. The review by the Cyber Safety Review Board will look at the malicious targeting of cloud computing environments, the DHS said in a statement. Senator Ron Wyden in July asked the Federal Trade Commission, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the Justice Department to "take action" against Microsoft following the hack. The Cyber Safety Review Board's review will provide recommendations to help organizations protect against malicious access to cloud-based accounts , DHS said.
Persons: Steve Marcus, Alejandro Mayorkas, Ron Wyden, Jasper Ward, Ismail Shakil, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Def Con, REUTERS, Microsoft, Department of Homeland Security, DHS, Federal Trade Commission, Infrastructure Security Agency, Justice Department, Thomson Locations: Las Vegas , Nevada, U.S, Washington, Ottawa
REUTERS/Maja Smiejkowska/File PhotoNEW YORK, Aug 8 (Reuters) - A federal judge in Manhattan said the British pop star Dua Lipa must face a lawsuit accusing her of copying her 2021 megahit "Levitating" from a 1979 disco song. The lawsuit, filed in March 2022, claimed that "Levitating" shared "compositional elements" with "Wiggle," most significantly by duplicating its opening melody. Defense lawyers argued that it was implausible to believe that Lipa, 27, heard "Wiggle" before writing "Levitating." Failla's opinion does not cover the plaintiffs' claim that "Levitating" copied another song, "Don Diablo," to which they owned a copyright. The case is Larball Publishing Co et al v Lipa et al, U.S. District Court, Southern District of New York, No.
Persons: Dua Lipa, Maja Smiejkowska, Katherine Polk Failla, L, Russell Brown, Sandy Linzer, Failla, Jason Brown, Don Diablo, Lipa, Bosko Kante, Jonathan Stempel, Leslie Adler Organizations: Dua, REUTERS, U.S, Warner Records, Larball, Court, Southern District of, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, Manhattan, British, Lipa, Los Angeles, Florida, U.S, Southern District, Southern District of New York, New York
The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday is still expected to show a tight labor market, with the unemployment rate steady near multi-decade lows, though wage growth probably moderated. Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 200,000 jobs last month, after rising 209,000 in June, according to a Reuters survey of 80 economists. Still, employment growth would be double the roughly 100,000 jobs per month needed to keep up with the increase in the working age population. Striking Hollywood writers and actors also likely had no impact on employment growth. Though annual wage growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target, it would be the latest indication of wage pressures continuing to subside into the third quarter.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Sam Bullard, Nonfarm, Carl Riccadonna, Sung Won Sohn, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Diane Craft Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor, Fed, BNP, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Supply, Labor Department, Conference, Finance, Loyola Marymount University, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina, New York, Los Angeles
The College Board said that its AP Psych course is "effectively banned" under Florida state law. A Florida law bans talk of sexuality and gender in school — key topics in AP Psych. Ron DeSantis' administration is using an "extremist agenda" to "censor" AP Psychology after the College Board said the course was "effectively banned" through the state's parental rights law critics have called "Don't Say Gay." But, under DeSantis' law, teachers are prohibited from discussing gender identity and sexual orientation in school. "This attempt to censor the AP Psychology course is just one more example of the governor's extremist agenda," Spar said.
Persons: DeSantis, Ron DeSantis, Andrew Spar, , Spar, Colin Sharkey Organizations: Board, Psych, Service, College Board, Florida Education Association —, The College Board, Florida Department of Education, The, Florida, College, International Baccalaureate, Association of American Educators Locations: Florida, Wall, Silicon
Other data from the Labor Department on Thursday showed a marked slowdown in labor costs in the second quarter, thanks to a sharp rebound in worker productivity. That added to reports last month showing a significant moderation in annual inflation in June as well as wage growth in the second quarter. Reuters GraphicsWorkers were more productive in the second quarter, which helped to curb growth in labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.7% annualized rate in the second quarter after declining at a 1.2% pace in the January-March quarter, the Labor Department said in a third report. Unit labor costs - the price of labor per single unit of output - rose at a 1.6% rate in the second quarter.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Bill Adams, Nonfarm payrolls, Sarah House, Lucia Mutikani, Safiyah Riddle, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Labor, The Institute for Supply Management, Treasury, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Workers, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Dallas, California, Ohio, Texas, Georgia, Missouri, Wells, Charlotte , North Carolina
Look at the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, says Rosenberg, who called the 2008 recession. He added: "Even if we could argue about a recession or a soft landing, you have Nirvana priced into the stock market as an asset class right now." 7 places for returns as a recession loomsThe first place Rosenberg said he's bullish on is the Treasury market. Treasury bills have durations of one year or less, while Treasury bonds have durations of 20 years or more. The iShares MSCI Japan ETF (EWJ) is one way to invest in Japanese stocks.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Treasurys, Rosenberg, there's, he's, bullish, underperformance, Warren Buffett Organizations: Treasury, Conference, CNN, Rosenberg Research, Treasury Bond ETF, Regional Banking, Vanguard Utilities, Real, Fidelity MSCI Communication Locations: U.S, Japan
Big US asset managers cool on climate issues -think tank
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( Isla Binnie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Focusing on the world's four largest asset managers, InfluenceMap said Vanguard and Fidelity Investments supported 4.5% and 4.8% respectively of resolutions the think tank describes as "climate-relevant" in 2022. BlackRock (BLK.N) voted for 12% and State Street (STT.N) 15%, the researchers said. In response to the report, State Street said it would continue to engage with companies on material risks and opportunities. InfluenceMap program manager Daan Van Acker mentioned Vanguard's decision to leave a major industry initiative aimed at tackling climate change last year. "This example and others, like the asset managers' drop in climate resolution support, do raise serious questions around the managers' net-zero commitments in the context of the current political climate," he said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, InfluenceMap, BLK.N, BlackRock, Daan Van Acker, Isla Binnie, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Vanguard, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Paris, Republican, Fidelity Investments, BlackRock, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
The lawsuit filed on Monday said Kante is entitled to more than $20 million in profit from the infringing music. Representatives for Kante, Lipa and WMG did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Tuesday. Kante's website said he has played the Talk Box on songs by musicians including rappers Kanye West, Big Boi and J. Cole. The lawsuit said producer Stephen Kozmeniuk approached Kante in 2019 about creating a talk-box track to use on "Levitating." "Levitating" was released on Dua Lipa's hit 2020 album "Future Nostalgia."
Persons: Singer Dua Lipa, Florion, Bosko Kante, Kante, Lipa's, WMG, Lipa, Sandy Linzer, Russell Brown, Kanye, Big, J, Cole, Stephen Kozmeniuk, DJ, Madonna, Missy Elliott, DaBaby, Blake Brittain, David Bario, Richard Chang Organizations: Singer Dua, Skanderbeg, REUTERS, Warner Music Group, Kante, Thomson Locations: Tirana, Albania, Dua Lipa, Los Angeles, British, Lipa, Washington
Woods joins PGA Tour's policy board as player director
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
"Tiger's voice and leadership throughout his career have contributed immeasurably to the success of the PGA Tour, and to apply both to our governance and go-forward plan at this crucial time is even more welcomed and impactful," said PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan. "I am honoured to represent the players of the PGA Tour," Woods, who is recovering from ankle surgery in April, said in a news release. The announcement comes nearly two months after the golf world was left stunned by the announcement of a framework agreement between the PGA Tour and Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, which controls LIV Golf. According to the PGA Tour, the players and Monahan will work together to amend the Policy Board's governing documents to make it clear that no major decision can be made without the involvement and approval of the player directors. Reporting by Frank Pingue in Toronto Editing by Christian RadnedgeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Woods, Mike Blake, Patrick Cantlay, Charley Hoffman, Peter Malnati, Rory McIlroy, Webb Simpson, Jay Monahan, LIV, Monahan, Colin Neville, Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Japan's Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day, Adam Scott, Frank Pingue, Christian Radnedge Organizations: Golf, Reuters, PGA, Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, PGA Tour, PIF, Thomson Locations: Augusta , Georgia, U.S, Toronto
Focusing on the world's four largest asset managers, InfluenceMap said Vanguard and Fidelity Investments supported 4.5% and 4.8% respectively of resolutions the think tank describes as "climate-relevant" in 2022. BlackRock (BLK.N) voted for 12% and State Street (STT.N) 15%, the researchers said. In response to the report, State Street said it would continue to engage with companies on material risks and opportunities. InfluenceMap program manager Daan Van Acker mentioned Vanguard's decision to leave a major industry initiative aimed at tackling climate change last year. "This example and others, like the asset managers' drop in climate resolution support, do raise serious questions around the managers' net-zero commitments in the context of the current political climate," he said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, InfluenceMap, BLK.N, BlackRock, Daan Van Acker, Isla Binnie, Gerry Doyle Organizations: Vanguard, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Paris, Republican, Fidelity Investments, BlackRock, Fidelity, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
David Rosenberg is sticking with his recession call, despite many other experts backing down. In a client memo, he shared some of the extreme pushback he's received for his gloomy forecasts. David Rosenberg, a leading economist who called both the dot-com and housing crashes, remains fully convinced the US economy is headed for a recession. Recession indicators including the inverted yield curve, The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, and the New York Fed's recession model are still flashing red. "The impatience and tempestuousness out there do not surprise me, either, having called the markets and the economy for nearly 40 years," he continued.
Persons: David Rosenberg, he's, Michael Burry, Warren Buffett, Merrill, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Internet, Conference, Biden, North Locations: Wall, Silicon, Houston, York, North American
Economist David Rosenberg told Insider that Fed employees laughed at his recession call in 2007. On October 9, 2007, shortly before the global economy plunged into recession, David Rosenberg delivered a presentation to economists and members of the research team at the Federal Reserve detailing why a downturn was coming. The Treasury yield curve is near its most inverted levels since the early 1980s. Here's the spread between the 3-month and 10-year Treasury yields. Then there's The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index, which is in recessionary territory, marked by the red lines below.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch, Mr, Louis Organizations: Federal Reserve, North, Conference, Fed, Federal, Rosenberg Research, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St Locations: North American
Davies said he intended to stay on at the bank for now - after also facing calls to resign - and confirmed for the first time that political pressure forced the board's hand in Rose's exit. "The political reaction to that was such... that her position was then untenable," he told reporters. Britain's finance ministry said the decision for Rose to depart was made by her and the bank's board. "The NatWest board is responsible for the bank's strategic and operational management," a Treasury spokesperson said. ($1 = 0.7820 pounds)Reporting by Iain Withers and Lawrence White, editing by Sinead Cruise and Tomasz JanowskiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Davies, Nigel Farage's, Rose, Howard Davies, Alison Rose, Nigel Farage, Coutts, Peter Flavel, We've, Alison, Travers Smith, Paul Thwaite, Iain Withers, Lawrence White, Sinead Cruise, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: NatWest, Rose NatWest, BBC, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Britain's, Rose's, Britain
A judge on Friday denied Disney 's bid to dismiss or pause a state court lawsuit related to its bitter feud with Florida Gov. Soon after, DeSantis and his allies in the state's GOP-led Legislature moved to dissolve Disney World's special district. The board voted in April to void those deals, and Disney sued in federal court, accusing DeSantis of orchestrating a "relentless campaign to weaponize government power." The CFTOD board countersued days later in state court. In May, Disney asked the court to dismiss that case, arguing in part that it was moot after DeSantis signed additional legislation that voided the company's development contracts.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Disney's, Disney, Margaret Schreiber, Donald Trump's Organizations: Disney, Florida Gov, GOP, Improvement, Central Locations: Orlando, Disney's Orlando, Florida, Central Florida
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. Mortgage Rates for Buying a Home30-year Fixed Mortgage Rates Decrease (-0.10%)The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.40%, down 10 basis points since this time last week. 20-year Fixed Mortgage Rates Go Up (+0.20%)The average 20-year fixed mortgage rate is up from last week and sits at 6.25%. Mortgage Refinance Rates30-year Fixed Refinance Rates Inch Down (-0.07%)The average 30-year refinance rate is 6.76%, which is just 7 basis points lower compared to last week. 15-year Fixed Refinance Rates Fall (-0.22%)The average 15-year fixed refinance rate is 6.20%, a bit lower than it was last week.
Persons: Freddie Mac, homebuyers, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's, you'll, refinance, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Conference, Zillow Locations: Chevron
Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.6% in the most recent month. In many states, unemployment is at or near record lows, with the unemployment rate in South Dakota at just 1.8%. Construction spending on manufacturing is soaring, while manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level in 15 years. And the dream scenario for the economy, to get inflation down without a sharp spike in unemployment or a recession, is looking more likely by the day.
Persons: It's Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, South Dakota
Experts say bias in the appraisal process is the reason for the gap, but change may be coming. That's not surprising, considering 95% of appraisers in Philadelphia — a majority nonwhite city — are white, a report by the Philadelphia Home Appraisal Bias Task Force found. "It's like a flight simulator for appraisers," Swinney said. Right now, Pennsylvania is among the 42 states that have signaled PAREA is an acceptable model for training appraisers. As a City Council member, she formed the Home Appraisal Bias Task Force, which produced a report with recommendations for and data on appraisal bias in the city.
Persons: Deborah Spence, Laura Eaton, Philadelphia Spence, That's, Brad Swinney, Swinney, you've, they're, Appraisers, Cherelle Parker, Philadelphia's, she's, Parker, Spence, we've, We've Organizations: Service, , Brookings, Federal Reserve Bank of, Data USA, Pennsylvania Department, State, Democratic, Council, Force Locations: Pennsylvania, Wall, Silicon, Philadelphia, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, America, appraisers, Philly
On Thursday, new GDP data will show just how much the US economy grew between April and June. The US has also been experiencing a factory boom, with construction spending on US manufacturing nearly doubling from May 2022 to May 2023. Manufacturing employment recently hit its highest level since 2008, and since Biden took office, around 800,000 manufacturing jobs were added. In the first two quarters of this year, applications to start a business likely to hire employees grew 7% year-over-year. Sectors leading likely employer business applications include accommodation and food services, construction, health care and social assistance, and retail trade.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Joe, Biden, Ellen Zentner, Julia Coronado Organizations: Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, Service, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Congressional, Investments, Economic, Sectors, National Association for Business Economics, Conference, CPI, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon, , Philadelphia, frastructure, Mississippi, North Carolina
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