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Eli Lilly has jumped almost 27%, building on its 59% gain in 2023. The long-term outlooks for Nvidia and Eli Lilly — both longtime Club holdings — brightened in recent weeks, leading to additional gains for the stocks. This leaves Club members who own Nvidia, Eli Lilly, or both, wondering how to proceed with their investments. Right now, we feel good about the timing of our most recent sales in Nvidia and Eli Lilly. Eli Lilly's stock is currently up about 24% from our Sept. 12 sale level, based on Thursday's close.
Persons: Eli Lily, Eli Lilly, Eli Lilly —, Eli Lilly's, Zepbound, Lilly's, Jim Cramer, Jim, There's, they're, Colette Kress, Goldman Sachs, FactSet, Lilly, Novo, Nordisk's Wegovy, tirzepatide, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Nvidia, Club, Apple, Microsoft, Web Services, Nordisk's, CNBC, Reuters Locations: Wall
That left Fed officials bracing for the latest batch of revised CPI data, released Friday morning, which some feared could take away the inflation progress they observed last year. Instead, officials got some good news: December’s monthly inflation wasn’t as bad as initially reported, according to newly revised figures from the BLS. And for other months last year, initial data was either unchanged or revised by no more than one-tenth of a percentage point up or down. Recent data revisions have complicated the Fed’s monetary policy decisionsFed officials have been complaining about data revisions to key economic reports lately. But if revised data indicates that job gains didn’t actually slow that much in a month, cutting rates could move the inflation rate further from their target.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Friday’s, Kieran Clancy, ” Clancy, , ” “, Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, , Pantheon Locations: New York
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewMany young Americans are hitting up their parents for cash because they can't afford the basics following historic inflation, Kevin O'Leary said. A recent Pew survey found that 59% of parents with children aged 18 to 34 said they helped their kids financially. The O'Leary Ventures chairman, nicknamed "Mr Wonderful," underlined the painful impact of historic inflation in recent years. "This has been a particularly tough jolt" for young Americans over the last three years, O'Leary said.
Persons: , Kevin O'Leary, O'Leary, " O'Leary, Chris Kempczinski, they've, they're Organizations: Service, Business, Fox News, O'Leary Ventures Locations: America
A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.
Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S
China's deflation problem keeps getting worse
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
In the latest sign of the country's worsening deflation problem, fresh data showed consumer prices in China tumbled in January at the sharpest rate in 14 years. AdvertisementOn an annualized month-over-month basis, consumer prices fell 4.3%, with particular weakness in food prices. Measured year-over-year for January:Pork prices fell 17.3%Vegetable prices fell 12.7%Fruit prices fell 9.1%The producer price index, too, dropped 2.5%, while service prices climbed at 0.5% on the year, half the rate seen in December. The more consumer prices fall, the more difficult it will be for Beijing to reverse. Foreign investors have already fled Chinese markets in droves over the last year, and ongoing deflation could spell trouble for earnings of Chinese companies.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs Organizations: Service, National Bureau, Statistics, Bloomberg, Institute of International Finance Locations: China, China's, Beijing
Read previewThe US commercial real estate market saw a steep drop in investment last year, with capital flows into the market plummeting by more than 50% to the lowest level since 2012. That brought the full-year investment total to $348 billion, a 52% decline from 2022, according to CBRE. CBRE noted a 91% year-over-year drop in direct real estate company investments to $1.4 billion in Q4, citing increased financing costs. New York took the lead with $33 billion in investment, followed by Los Angeles at $30 billion. AdvertisementThe dimming outlook for commercial real estate —offices in particular — is linked to the tighter financing conditions that many commercial landlords now face.
Persons: , CBRE, Barry Sternlicht Organizations: Service, Business, New York, Los, Starwood Capital, Capital Locations: Los Angeles
That's what makes the upcoming proxy battle between Disney and the activist investor Nelson Peltz so compelling. Peltz's Trian Partners investment firm oversees about $3 billion worth of Disney stock, including shares held by former Marvel Entertainment Chairman Ike Perlmutter. For its fiscal second quarter, Disney expects net additional subscribers to Disney+ between 5.5 million and 6 million, with domestic adding 7.5 million due to its agreement with Charter Communications, while international core subs decline modestly. Disney is getting closer and closer to achieving its first profitable DTC quarter, which it continues to expect in its fiscal fourth quarter. In the Experiences segment, Disney delivered record revenue, operating income, and operating margin in its fiscal first quarter.
Persons: Bob Iger, Iger, Hugh Johnston, Nelson Peltz, Jay Rasulo, Peltz's, Ike Perlmutter, Taylor, Taylor Swift, , Johnston, Disney, WBD, That's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Gabby Jones Organizations: Disney, Revenue, LSEG, Peltz's Trian Partners, Marvel Entertainment, Entertainment, Hulu, Netflix, Charter Communications, Networks, Walt Disney World, Disneyland, Cruise, Sports, ESPN, Fox, Warner Bros Discovery, CNBC, Management, Epic Games, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Disney's, Florida, California, buybacks, Brooklyn , New York
New York CNN —Americans — particularly Millennials and those with lower incomes — are becoming increasingly overextended financially: Credit card and auto loan delinquencies have not only surpassed pre-pandemic levels, they’re the highest they’ve been in more than a decade. Debt balances increased across the board, with credit card balances rising $50 billion to hit a new nominal high of $1.13 trillion (when adjusting for inflation, balances have yet to surpass the levels seen in 2008). “Credit card and auto loan transitions into delinquency are still rising above pre-pandemic levels,” Wilbert van der Klaauw, economic research adviser at the New York Fed, said in a statement. “The delinquency numbers are pretty eye-opening, especially when it comes to credit cards,” Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, told CNN via email. Student loan delinquencies will not be reported to the credit bureaus until later this year.
Persons: ” Wilbert van der, Matt Schulz, , delinquencies Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Fed, New York Fed, CNN Locations: New York
Revenue : $1.36 billion vs. $1.38 billion expected, according to LSEG. : $1.36 billion vs. $1.38 billion expected, according to LSEG. Global Daily Active Users : 414 million vs. 412 million expected, according to StreetAccount. : 414 million vs. 412 million expected, according to StreetAccount. Daily active users for the first quarter will be 420 million, Snap said, slightly topping analyst estimates of 419.3 million.
Persons: Evan Spiegel, Porte, Debra Aho Williamson, Mark Zuckerberg, Linda Yaccarino, Shou Zi Chew, Jason Citron, Pinterest Organizations: Inc, Viva Technology, Porte de, CNBC, Meta Locations: Paris, Israel
Credit card delinquencies surged more than 50% in 2023 as total consumer debt swelled to $17.5 trillion, the New York Federal Reserve reported Tuesday. The quarterly increase at an annualized pace was around 8.5%, New York Fed researchers said. Credit card debt, however, jumped 14.5% from the same period in 2022. Credit card debt as a share of income is still below pre-pandemic levels. Mortgage debt increased 2.8% in 2023, while the delinquency rate increased to 0.82%, up a quarter percentage point from the previous year.
Persons: Delinquencies, delinquencies, Wilbert van der, Joe Biden Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Auto, Federal Reserve, Washington
Mortgage rates have been on a wild ride since the summer, briefly crossing to a 20-year high of 8% in October. Mortgage rates do not follow the Fed directly, but they follow loosely the yield on the 10-year Treasury, which is heavily influenced by the central bank's impression of the economy at any given time. As mortgage rates fell over the past two months, buyers seemed to be returning to the market. Mortgage applications to purchase a home had been rising steadily, but fell back in the last few weeks, as mortgage rates edged higher. "If we see more data like last Friday's jobs report, rates will have a hard time getting back below 7%.
Persons: Li Jianguo, Matthew Graham, Michael Fratantoni, Graham Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Getty, Mortgage News, Federal, Treasury, Fed, Mortgage, Association . Mortgage, CNBC PRO Locations: Millbrae , California, United States, Xinhua
US stocks are heavily overvalued, a recession is coming, and AI is overhyped, Jeremy Grantham said. Stocks would have plunged another 20% or 30% in 2023 if not for the AI craze, the investor said. Grantham said he's worried about foreign wars, especially when asset prices are at record highs. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy .
Persons: Jeremy Grantham, Stocks, Grantham, he's, Organizations: Service, Nasdaq Locations: Grantham, Ukraine, Japan
Carvana over the last 18 months aggressively restructured its operations and debt amid bankruptcy concerns to pivot from growth to cost-cutting. Carvana puts each vehicle it intends to sell through a lengthy inspection, repair and sale preparation process. A Ford F-150 is prepped for a painting booth at Carvana's vehicle reconditing center outside Phoenix. The Wall Street Journal in December 2021 detailed a network of Garcia companies that do business with DriveTime, Carvana or both. Carvana sells such warranties or other service-related protections to customers, and DriveTime takes them over, giving Carvana a commission.
Persons: Michael Wayland, Ernie Garcia III, Ernie Garcia II, Garcia, Carli, Carvana, There's, Richard, Dick, Nixon, there's, Ernie Garcia, pathing, Rajat Gupta, Doug Guan, we've, CNBC Guan, Coldplay, Neil Diamond, Teresa Aragon, DriveTime, Duckling, Garcia II, Charles Keating's Lincoln, hasn't, Organizations: CNBC PHOENIX, CNBC, Ford, Ford Motor, Nissan, State, Charles Keating's Lincoln Savings & Loan, Street Journal, DriveTime Locations: Tempe, Ariz, Tempe , Arizona, Phoenix, Carvana, Florida, reconditioning, Silicon Valley, Aragon, DriveTime, Drivetime
Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 353,000 for the month, much better than the Dow Jones estimate for 185,000, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. Job growth was widespread on the month, led by professional and business services with 74,000. The report also indicated that December's job gains were much better than originally reported. The January payrolls count comes with economists and policymakers closely watching employment figures for direction on the larger economy. The fourth quarter saw GDP increase at a strong 3.3% annualized pace, closing out a year in which the economy defied widespread predictions for a recession.
Persons: Dow Jones, Jerome Powell Organizations: Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Labor, Gross, Atlanta, Fed Locations: U.S
That's big enough to still rank 31st in the S & P 500. Meta's dividend is also big enough to have a small impact on the S & P yield, increasing the overall yield 0.74%, to 1.4609% from 1.4501%, according to S & P Global. And it's large enough to push the total payout for the S & P 500 to $600 billion for the first time. In paying a bonus, Meta joins the majority About 80% of S & P 500 companies pay a dividend. Since 1926, the S & P 500 has returned an annualized total return (price plus dividends) of 10.37% a year.
Persons: Meta, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Howard Silverblatt, Dow, Silverblatt Organizations: Meta Platforms, ExxonMobil, Apple, JPMorgan, Verizon, P, Dow Jones, Microsoft, CNBC
Generative AI, as expected, was a big focus of the earnings call. He also noted the company's advanced virtual assistant, Meta AI, was made fully available in the U.S. by the end of 2023, and the firm is testing more than a dozen other generative AI features. But investors across the tech industry are increasingly wondering when all the spending on generative AI will translate to revenue – and that's no different for Meta. Nevertheless, Li said Meta's suite of generative AI tools for advertisers is its biggest near-term monetization opportunity. Further down the road, Li indicated that business messaging is another compelling opportunity to make money from generative AI.
Persons: Mark Zuckerberg's, Meta, Zuckerberg, Susan Li, Mark Zuckerberg, Li, EssilorLuxottica, Jim Cramer, Ray, Meta's, it's, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Revenue, LSEG, Meta, Reality Labs, Daily, Facebook, Management, Quest, VR, Apple, Vision, UBS, Pro, CNBC Locations: , Instagram, U.S, Menlo Park , California
New York CNN —Earnings season is in full swing, and that means investors get a chance to hear from multinational companies about the state of the global economy. Some of the United States’ biggest companies are in the hot seat to answer questions about the economy, and where it could be headed. Like the rest of the US, companies are watching whether the economy could still tip into a recession as interest rates hover around a 23-year high. Achieving a soft landing, or a situation in which inflation comes down without an economic downturn, looks likely, some companies said. According to the UK government’s own estimates, the checks — including physical inspections from April — will cost British businesses about £330 million ($419 million) annually and increase food inflation by about 0.2 percentage points over three years.
Persons: it’s, , Michael Hsu, Kimberly, Clark, Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman, Christophe Le Caillec, Jim Vondruska, We’re, Robert Isom, Lorenzo Simonelli, Baker Hughes, Alan Schnitzer, Elisabeth Buchwald, , Christopher Waller, Waller, Hanna Ziady, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United States ’, American, O'Hare Airport, Travelers Companies, , European Union Locations: New York, Chicago , Illinois, United Kingdom, Britain
Los Angeles Times, eBay, and UPS are three companies that have made recent layoff announcements. Despite cuts at big household names, the nation's layoffs and discharges rate has been steadily low. AdvertisementEmployees at the Los Angeles Times, eBay , Microsoft , and UPS are some of the workers impacted by recent layoff announcements in January. That sector had a layoffs and discharges rate of 0.8% in December, which is actually a small dip from the 0.9% in November. Zhao noted that "the scale here" means that this number probably isn't really going to change because of the recent layoff announcements.
Persons: , Nick Bunker, Bunker, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's, Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor, Zhao, that's, Kory Kantenga, isn't Organizations: Los Angeles Times, eBay, UPS, Service, Microsoft, Bureau of Labor Statistics, North America, Labor, LinkedIn
Washington, DC CNN —The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady Wednesday for the fourth consecutive meeting, leaving them at a 23-year high as policymakers likely discuss the timing of rate cuts. That’s because, if inflation drifts lower but interest rates remain elevated, it causes “real” interest rates to rise, unnecessarily squeezing the economy and risking job losses. A rapidly weakening economy threatening mass job losses is an obvious reason to cut rates, which most economists aren’t currently forecasting. But another concern that has gained some traction is the rise of inflation-adjusted interest rates, which is an argument for rate cuts. The Fed is set to announce its latest policy decision at 2 pm ET on Wednesday, followed by a press conference from Chair Powell at 2:30 pm ET.
Persons: Jerome Powell’s, , ” Sarah House, , , Christopher Waller, it’s, Mary Daly, they’re, aren’t, Austan Goolsbee, Subadra Rajappa, Générale, Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, ” San Francisco Fed, Fox Business, Chicago Fed, CNBC, PCE, Labor Department Locations: Washington, Wells, ” San
The Federal Reserve is fed up with data revisions
  + stars: | 2024-01-31 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +11 min
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said large revisions in data are tainting his assessments of how the economy is doing. Al Drago/Bloomberg/Getty ImagesThat’s well above the average month-over-month revised change in job totals from 1973 to the latest available revision data, according to the BLS. The official summary of what Fed officials said and discussed during their September meeting — also known as the Fed minutes — stated: “A few participants observed that there were challenges in assessing the state of the economy because some data continued to be volatile and subject to large revisions.”Spokespeople from the Federal Reserve declined to answer which data Fed officials were referring to. Frequent and large revisions to economic data are weighing on Federal Reserve decision-making, Governor Michelle Bowman said. “We want to be data dependent, but not data point dependent,” Williams said.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, it’s, Al Drago, ” Waller, , Michelle Bowman, , Spokespeople, he’s, don’t, Erica Groshen, David Wilcox, Laura Kelter, Kelter, Groshen, Wilcox, John Williams, ” Williams, Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal Reserve, , of Labor Statistics, BLS, Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Fed, Ohio Bankers League, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Department, Census, Labor, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Employment, CNN, Wilcox . New York Fed Locations: New York, Wilcox . New
US recession calls are still on the table, but the economy is still outpacing other rich nations. US GDP grew at a surprise 3.3% rate in the fourth quarter, beating estimates for 2.0%. The trend has held steady over the last several years, with the US leading in economic growth since the pandemic. Among countries that use the euro, the combined GDP grew at a 0.1% annualized rate in the third quarter of 2023. US GDP growth reflected increases in consumer spending, state and local government spending, and exports, among other increases, according to the BEA.
Persons: , Russell Price, That's Organizations: Service, OECD, BEA, International Monetary Fund, Fed Locations: Canada, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, France, Germany
The median asking rent was $1,713, which was down $4 from November and down $63 from the July 2022 peak. However, median rent is still $309 higher than the same time in 2019, before the pandemic. What’s more, 12 million of those renters are severely cost burdened, which means they are paying more than half of their income on housing. Following changes in housing needs during the pandemic and an already existing low supply of multifamily housing in some markets, rents surged in 2021 and 2022. Without continued new supply in addition to enhanced rental support, the Harvard report concludes affordability will remain a critical concern for many renters.
Persons: Chris Herbert, , Whitney Airgood, Douglas Elliman, Miller Samuel Real, , Anthemos Georgiades, ” Georgiades Organizations: DC CNN, Harvard University’s, for Housing Studies, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, Harvard, Census Bureau, Builders, National Association of Home Builders, Baby Boomers Locations: Washington, United States, Manhattan
Donald Trump claimed credit for the stock market's surge to record highs this month. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "THIS IS THE TRUMP STOCK MARKET," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday. The benchmark S&P 500, tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite, and venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average have notched record highs in recent days. AdvertisementTrump is presumably aware of the key drivers fueling the stock market's advance, and knows they probably don't include his possible reelection.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Biden, , Joe Biden, you've, Stocks, joblessness, Bob Michele, Ray Dalio, Jamie Dimon Organizations: Service, TRUMP, BIDEN, WIN, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Reserve
U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks at the St. John Baptist Church in Columbia, South Carolina, on Jan. 28, 2024. The White House cheered the Conference Board report on Tuesday showing consumer confidence rising to its highest level in more than two years. Consumer confidence reached its highest level since December 2021, and was up more than 30% since its April 2020 low of 85.7. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index rose for a third straight month to 114.8 in January, up from a revised 108 in December 2023. Despite the increasing consumer sentiment, just 33% of voters approve of Biden's handling of the economy, according to CNBC's All-America Economic Survey in December.
Persons: Joe Biden, Lael Brainard, Donald Trump, Biden's, Trump Organizations: St, John Baptist Church, Economic, Biden Administration, America Economic Survey, CNBC, Biden, Trump, CNBC PRO Locations: Columbia , South Carolina
That’s the Fed’s latest attempt at giving Wall Street a reality check on rate cuts. Fed officials have been communicating that sentiment for weeks now, and Wednesday’s statement is yet another signal from the Fed that investors need to rethink their bets. In early January, futures showed that rate cuts were very likely going to happen in March, but those odds have since crumbled, and they may continue to dip. There are consequences if the Fed cuts rates too soon and if it cuts too late. Fed officials have said they likely need to see “below-trend growth” to be assured that inflation is on its way to 2%.
Persons: Price, , , Jerome Powell, Subadra Rajappa, Générale Organizations: DC CNN, Federal Reserve, CNN, Fed Locations: Washington
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