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The biggest contribution to the sharp rise in the 2023 forecast came from forecasts deviations and a change in forecasting approach. "The central bank did not only provide an inflation forecast that is in line with economists predictions but... the emphasis in the report very much matched those of the market. We had not seen this from the central bank in many years. CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCEEconomists expect the policy rate to rise further to 25% by year-end, still leaving real rates negative. "Defining interest rate hikes as sufficient or insufficient can only be done after inspecting the intricacies of this holistic approach," she said.
Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Nilufer Sezgin, Sahap Kavcioglu, Erdogan, Ali Kucukgocmen, Daren Butler, Andrew Heavens, Bernadette Baum Organizations: Wall Street, CENTRAL, Ece Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Ankara
PARIS, July 27 (Reuters) - BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) is set to resolve a U.S. probe into employees' use of unapproved messaging platforms, its mid-year earnings report showed on Thursday, which could see the French bank face a fine. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) later also examined the issue, bank disclosures showed. BNP set aside 125 million euros ($139 million) for an unspecified litigation in its earning report. "The proposed resolutions are subject to finalisation by the CFTC and SEC," BNP, the euro zone's biggest bank, added. French rival Societe Generale (SOGN.PA) said earlier this year that it, too, had been drawn into the probe.
Persons: Mathieu Rosemain, Jason Neely Organizations: BNP, Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, Societe Generale, Britain's HSBC, Thomson Locations: U.S, French
NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - Evercore (EVR.N) has hired veteran Morgan Stanley (MS.N) banker Seth Bergstein as a senior managing director to drive dealmaking in the global services sector, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday. Bergstein, who served as head of Morgan Stanley's global services group for about two decades, held the title of vice chairman of investment banking prior to his departure from the bank. In June, Evercore hired veteran technology banker Tammy Kiely and top aerospace & defense banker Michael Tarulli from Goldman. Earlier this month, it recruited Neil Wolitzer, a partner in real estate investment banking at Goldman, according to people familiar with the matter. Morgan Stanley declined to comment.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Seth Bergstein, Bergstein, Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Wall, Evercore, Tammy Kiely, Michael Tarulli, Neil Wolitzer, Paul Taubman, Brendan Panda, Panda, Aerojet, David Carnevali, Sonali Paul Organizations: YORK, Global, Goldman, PJT Partners, PJT, Thomson Locations: Dealogic, Goldman, Evercore, New York
NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - Joe Lewis, the British billionaire and owner of the Tottenham Hotspur soccer team, has been criminally charged in New York for orchestrating a "brazen" insider trading scheme. Joe Lewis is a wealthy man," U.S. Attorney Damian Williams said in a video on the X social media platform, formerly known as Twitter. Insider trading has long been a focus of Williams' office, dating to 2009 when a crackdown began under one of his predecessors, Preet Bharara. Prosecutors said that in some insider trading cases, Lewis lent money to recipients of his tips, including in Oct. 2019 when he wired $1 million to two pilots so they could buy more Mirati shares. Reporting by Jonathan Stempel and Luc Cohen in New York; Editing by Chris Reese and Lincoln Feast.
Persons: Joe Lewis, Lewis, Damian Williams, " Williams, Williams, Preet Bharara, Mirati, Boss, Marty, JPMorgan Chase, Jonathan Stempel, Luc Cohen, Chris Reese, Lincoln Organizations: YORK, Tottenham Hotspur, Prosecutors, U.S, Tavistock Group, Forbes, Therapeutics, Biosciences, Australian Agricultural, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: New York, Tavistock, Bear Stearns
"We believe India's electricity sector is going through a generational shift as the country looks to balance the economic growth with decarbonization," Goldman Sachs analyst Nikhil Bhandari told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia". Bhandari also told CNBC that India has a unique opportunity in green hydrogen thanks to the viability of round-the-clock renewable electricity. "This is unlike China, where we feel around the clock renewable electricity will be more economical towards the end of the decade." Goldman has a 12-month price target of 265 Indian rupees ($3.24) on NTPC, representing more than 30% upside from the current share price. Shares of SJVN have already risen past Goldman's price target of 55 Indian rupees and now carry a downside risk of 6%.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, NTPC, Nikhil Bhandari, CNBC's, Bhandari, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CNBC, Tata Power Locations: India, China, NTPC
What to expect from the Fed’s decision on rates
  + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. The Commerce Department releases the June reading of the Fed’s favorite inflation measure Friday. The Fed held rates steady for nine straight meetings over the span of a year the last time it paused a rate-hiking campaign in 2006. Nearly all of the Fed’s decisions have been unanimous since the central bank began lifting rates in March 2022, with the exception of two meetings early in the Fed’s current inflation battle.
Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
If history is any guide, expect a positive setup for Apple shares should the company raise expectations for the September quarter when it reports earnings Aug. 3, Morgan Stanley said. "History would show that June quarter earnings is a positive stock catalyst for Apple, and Sept quarter guidance matters most for Apple's stock," he added. Apple has beaten June earnings estimates every time in the last decade by 9% on average, and Morgan Stanley expects the company to do it again. "With our September quarter revenue and EPS 4-9% above current Consensus, and a shade above buyside expectations, we expect earnings to be a positive catalyst for Apple shares next week," Woodring said. Apple shares have rallied nearly 49% since the start of 2023.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Erik Woodring, Woodring, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Apple, Management Locations: Apple's
What to expect from this week’s Fed meeting
  + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
After the Fed’s July monetary policy meeting, which concludes on Wednesday, investors will be looking for more details around that potential hike. That’s why the Fed is trying to retain the option of another rate increase in case inflation proves to be more resilient than expected. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks during an annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Wyoming next month could shed more light on what to expect for the September decision. There are three possibilities for what the Fed might do moving forward, according to economists: a second consecutive rate hike in September, one in November, or no more rate hikes after July. Whatever the Fed decides to do won’t come without a vigorous debate, and perhaps even a dissent, though the Fed has a tradition of collegiality.
Persons: , it’s, Jerome Powell’s, It’s, haven’t, inflation’s, Ben Bernanke, Raphael Bostic, there’s, hawkish, “ Powell, ” Seema Shah, Powell, Christopher Waller, you’re, , José Torres, ” Powell, Jerome Powell Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Commerce Department, Market Committee, Atlanta Fed, Asset Management, CNN, , The Labor Department, Interactive Locations: Washington, Wyoming,
The Wall Street bank's Conviction List comprises its top buy-rated stocks that it expects to outperform. Goldman gave Baidu's U.S.-listed shares a 12-month price target of $197, and its Hong Kong-listed shares a price target of 193 Hong Kong dollars. Shift4 Payments American payment processing company Shift4 Payments is also on Goldman's conviction list. "Its refreshed, modern restaurant POS [point of sale] platform and new verticals should drive market share growth," Goldman analysts wrote. Goldman gave Warner Bros Discovery, which is on its conviction list, a price target of $20, or potentially more than 50% upside.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Baidu Goldman, Goldman, Johnson, Warner Bros Discovery Goldman, WBD, Solar Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Baidu, Baidu's U.S, Hong, Johnson Controls, Warner Bros Discovery Locations: China, Hong Kong
China property stocks tumble on renewed debt fears
  + stars: | 2023-07-24 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
Country Garden shares tumbled to fresh eight-month lows Monday, extending losses on renewed debt fears for the Chinese property sector. Future Publishing | Future Publishing | Getty ImagesStock Chart Icon Stock chart iconCountry Garden is seen as one of the largest property developers in the mainland. JP Morgan's analysts slashed target prices for Country Garden by more than 60% to HK$0.90 and Country Garden Services by nearly 70% to HK$6.70. The country's property sector is struggling to emerge from a credit crisis after the government cracked down on its debt levels in August 2020. Stock Chart Icon Stock chart iconYears of exuberant growth led to the construction of ghost towns where supply outstripped demand, as developers looked to capitalize on the desire for home ownership and property investment.
Persons: JP, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Future Publishing, Getty, Reuters, HK, Garden Services Locations: Wall
Bank of America believes Europe's oil majors are about to hit an inflection point. This trend reflects investor anticipation for a long-awaited turn in earnings momentum, according to analysts at Bank of America. It named Shell as its "Big Oil top pick." The below table shows European Big Oil companies, the earnings release dates, and Bank of America's 12-month price target and upside potential. Shell As its top pick, Bank of America expects Shell to report strong second-quarter earnings and cash flows.
Persons: Christopher Kuplent, Shell, BofA, TotalEnergies Organizations: of America, Big, Bank of America, Shell, Oil, Big Oil, Bank of America's, BP, outflows, TotalEnergies Bank of America Locations: London , New York, Amsterdam, London, New York, Paris, Norwegian, Oslo
Commodity and energy trader Vitol Group made net profits of $15.1 billion in 2022, per Bloomberg. Its 3,300 employees were paid an average of $785,000 – nearly double the sum for the previous year. The salary and bonus figure dwarfs the average earnings of staff at big Wall Street banks. Staff at Vitol Group received huge raises this year after the oil trading firm posted a record profit of $15.1 billion. It and rival traders Cargill, Glencore and Trafigura made combined profits of nearly $50 billion for 2022, per Bloomberg.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Vitol, Cargill, Trafigura Organizations: Vitol, Bloomberg, Morning, Staff, Vitol Group, Wall, Glencore, Financial, Reuters Locations: Ukraine, London, Geneva, Singapore, Houston, Rotterdam, Switzerland
CME Group to lay off 3% of its workforce, reallocate positions
  + stars: | 2023-07-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
July 21 (Reuters) - CME Group (CME.O), the world's largest derivatives exchange, eliminated about 100 positions, or 3% of its workforce, this week while reallocating some positions, a spokesperson said on Friday. "The company plans to reallocate the majority of those positions to new, cloud-focused technology roles," the spokesperson said in an emailed statement, adding that the overall headcount will remain the same. The spokesperson declined to comment on how many people would be reallocated or whether CME will hire additional people to maintain headcount. Chicago-based CME operator is to announce second-quarter results on Wednesday. Reporting by Yana Gaur and Urvi Dugar in Bengaluru; Editing by William MallardOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Terry Duffy, Yana Gaur, Urvi, William Mallard Organizations: CME, Thomson Locations: U.S, Chicago, Bengaluru
PARIS, July 20 (Reuters) - France's post-Brexit success in attracting banks from London to Paris has exceeded expectations and is increasingly showing up in the country's balance of payments, the central bank said on Thursday. Those efforts are paying off as a number of Wall Street banks like Bank of America or JPMorgan have bulked up in Paris, setting up regional trading hubs in the French capital. "Paris' post-Brexit success has been spectacular, it's recently been picking up and exceeds our expectations," Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told journalists as he presented an annual report on France's balance of payments. The trend is even showing up in balance of payments data with financial firms relocated from London to Paris contributing 1.5 billion euros ($1.7 billion) to France's financial services surplus last year, the central bank said. Reuters Graphics($1 = 0.8921 euros)Reporting by Leigh Thomas; Editing by Angus MacSwanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Leigh Thomas, Angus MacSwan Organizations: Bank of America, JPMorgan, Bank of France, Financial, CMA, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: London, Paris, Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Dublin, France
The US Treasury curve has been inverted for quite a while now – but Goldman Sachs says things are different this time. But it's different this time, according to Goldman Sachs. The US Treasury yield curve has remained inverted for a year now, fueling fervent predictions for a recession. Breaking with consensus, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note Monday, per Bloomberg: "We don't share the widespread concern about yield curve inversion." "So the argument that the inverted curve validates the consensus forecast of a recession is circular, to say the least," he said in the note, according to Bloomberg.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius Organizations: Treasury, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Business
HONG KONG, July 18 (Reuters) - China's CITIC Securities (600030.SS) plans to move dozens of bankers from its offshore platform CLSA in Hong Kong to the mainland to cut costs and meet Beijing's call to bridge income inequality in the financial sector, people with knowledge of the matter said. The move comes weeks after CITIC cut pay across its investment banking division, lowering base salaries of mainland-based bankers by up to 15%. The move would result in a 25% to 50% base salary reduction because dealmakers in Hong Kong are normally offered higher pay than mainland peers, according to the second person. Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs (GS.N), JPMorgan (JPM.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) have cut some investment banking jobs in China over the last 12 months. ($1 = 7.1729 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Selena Li and Xie Yu in Hong Kong; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: CITIC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Selena Li, Xie Yu, Jamie Freed Organizations: CITIC Securities, CLSA's, Bankers, JPMorgan, Australian, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Hong Kong, China, CLSA's China, Beijing, Canadian
Major U.S. stock indexes rose Tuesday as investors eyed fresh earnings from Wall Street banks to see if the financial sector’s strong run would continue. Bank stocks moved higher, with an index of regional banks advancing. In non-financial stocks, shares of Microsoft jumped about 4% after the company made announcements about artificial-intelligence-related products. Brent crude oil rose 1.4%, halting two days of declines prompted by concerns about China’s economy. The international oil benchmark last week breached $80 a barrel for the first time since April; it settled just below that level today.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Dion Rabouin, Seng Organizations: U.S, Bank, Bank of America, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Microsoft Locations: Wall, Brent
(Reuters) -J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup trimmed China’s growth forecast for 2023 after the country’s economy grew at a weaker pace in the second quarter, with its post-COVID momentum unravelling rapidly. “Market scepticism on China’s growth outlook is on the rise,” said Morgan Stanley economists led by Robin Xing. JPM cut China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 5% from 5.5%. Citi, meanwhile, expects a 20 bps cut in the policy rate and 25 bps in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by the end of the third quarter. Goldman Sachs, however, maintained its 2023 full-year GDP growth forecast at 5.4%, even as they cut their current-quarter growth forecast to 5.5% on a quarter-on-quarter basis from 6.5% previously.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Robin Xing, China’s, JPM, , Xiangrong Yu, ” Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Lisheng Wang Organizations: Reuters, Citigroup, Citi Locations: China, Beijing
Chewy — Shares jumped more than 5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded them to buy from neutral. Paramount Global — Shares of the entertainment company fell 2.8% in premarket trading after the latest installment in the "Mission: Impossible" franchise underperformed expectations at the box office. State Street — The financial giant slipped about 2% in premarket trading. The stock was downgraded by JPMorgan to underweight from neutral following State Street's earnings release Friday. Figs — Shares of the apparel company fell 4.6% in premarket trading after Raymond James downgraded Figs to market perform from outperform.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Yelp, Goldman, Tesla, Raymond James, , Jesse Pound, Hakyung Kim, Michael Bloom Organizations: Activision, Warfare, Microsoft, Sony, PlayStation, Activision Blizzard, PepsiCo, Paramount, Variety, Citi, JPMorgan, State Street's
July 14 (Reuters) - Citigroup's (C.N) profit tumbled 36% in the second quarter as weakness in the Wall Street bank's trading business blunted gains from its personal banking and wealth management unit. Wall Street traders have hit a rough patch, joining investment bankers whose businesses have been weighed down for months by a slump in dealmaking. While its Wall Street operations dragged, the lender's consumer business helped partly offset some of the weakness. Revenue from its personal banking and wealth management division climbed 6% to $6.4 billion, including an 8% gain for branded cards to $2.4 billion. Net income sank to $2.92 billion, or $1.33 per share, in the three months to June 30, the bank reported on Friday.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Wells, Mehnaz Yasmin, Sriraj Kalluvila, Lananh Nguyen Organizations: Wall, JPMorgan, First Republic Bank, Thomson Locations: dealmaking, Bengaluru
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWall Street banks are very interested in selling the China rally: China Beige Book InternationalShehzad Qazi, managing director of the research firm, says "but when it's based on faulty numbers, you end up in a problem [you see] today, where the economy goes into a completely different direction."
Persons: Shehzad Qazi, it's Organizations: China Locations: China
Wall Street has suffered severe layoffs amid a dealmaking drought and shaky economic outlook. Headcount is up in every division, not including thousands of First Republic employees onboarded in July. Jobs have grown in every division despite the non-stop news about industry layoffs (think Goldman) and consolidation (think Credit Suisse). It has also cut about 40 high-paying investment banking jobs, and about 1,000 jobs from its home lending unit. The bank also beat Wall Street's expectations and has again become a challenger to Goldman Sachs' spot as No.
Persons: JPMorgan Chase, Jobs, Goldman, It's, headcount, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, May, JPM, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan's, Jeremy Barnum Organizations: JPMorgan, First Republic, onboarded, Suisse, JPMorgan Headcount, Bank Division, Consumer, Community Bank, Investment Bank, Bank, Wealth Management, First, Republic, Wall, Credit Suisse, UBS, Reuters, Global, Basel III Locations: Louis , Missouri, First Republic, San Francisco, China, Ukraine, Basel
According to JPM's circular, the shares currently unaccounted for are estimated to be less than 1% of the shares held in custody at another financial institution. This meant Deutsche was unable to reconcile the company shares held at another custodian bank with the depositary receipts on its own books. The Bank of Russia did not immediately respond to a request for comment on JP Morgan's search for the potentially missing Magnit shares. More than 60% of Magnit's shares are free-float, with shareholders including major global asset managers, Refinitiv data shows. When first announcing the plans, Magnit said its voluntary tender offer was also addressed to JPM, regarding shares held in its DR program custody account.
Persons: Morgan Chase, Mike Segar, Morgan, JPM, Deutsche, Russia's, Magnit, Sinead Cruise, Alexander Marrow, Jane Merriman Organizations: Co, New York City, REUTERS, Reuters, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Bank . Lawyers, Deutsche, Bank of Russia, Settlement Depository, NSD, Kremlin, Thomson Locations: New York, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Krasnodar, Russia, Uzbekistan, Euroclear
Strategists expect profit at S&P 500 (.SPX) companies to have dropped 6.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv data. Morgan Stanley:Much of the stock market rally this year has been driven by a price-to-earnings expansion, signaling investors likely remain unconcerned about near-term earnings pressure. Still, "better-than-feared" earnings are not going to be good enough in Q2 considering stocks have become more expensive, the strategists say. Goldman Sachs:Companies will likely be able to beat or surpass "the low bar" set for the second quarter. This suggests a "muted market reaction" to Q2 earnings is likely, given robust gains in stocks since the first quarter and an "overweight" equity positioning, the bank says.
Persons: Mike Segar, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Laura Cooper, Cooper, Scott Wren, Amruta Khandekar, Shreyashi Sanyal, Sriraj Organizations: Citibank, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Companies, GS, Nvidia, iShares EMEA, BlackRock, Deutsche Bank, Investors, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: New York , New York, U.S, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Bengaluru
REUTERS/Ralph OrlowskiSummaryCompanies U.S. CPI data for June shows inflation slowdownWall Street stocks gainDollar, Treasury yields dropOil and gold gainJuly 12 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks advanced on Wednesday and the dollar and Treasury yields fell after new U.S. inflation data showed a slowdown in the seemingly relentless rise of consumer prices. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) gained just 0.2% last month, the Labor Department said on Wednesday, lifted by rises in gasoline prices as well as rents, which offset a decrease in prices of used motor vehicles. Shares of big tech-related companies, which tend to be sensitive to higher interest rates, gave the S&P 500 its biggest boost. /FRXU.S. Treasury yields also dropped, with the 10-year Treasury yield now at 3.865%, down 11.9 basis points . Wall Street banks overall are expected to report higher profits as rising interest payments offset a downturn in deal making.
Persons: Ralph Orlowski, Alexandra Wilson, Elizondo, Bryce Doty, Australia's, Wells, Scott Wren, Wren, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Marc Jones, Ankur Banerjee, Jan Harvey, Chizu Nomiyama, Will Dunham, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, Companies U.S, Treasury, Index, Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, CPI, Bank of England, U.S, Sit Investment, Fed, Japan's Nikkei, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells, Investment Institute, Brent, Wednesday, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, U.S, Minneapolis, Asia, Wednesday ., Boston, London, Singapore, Carolina, New York
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