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☆ Americans are less confident in their economic futures than ever before — and the rest of the world is right there with them
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Americans are less confident in their economic futures than ever before, according to a survey. 24 of 28 countries surveyed reported record-low confidence levels about their economic futures. Insider was not able to verify how many times the US, or any other country, was surveyed about their future economic confidence in prior reports. But much of the rest of the world is feeling quite gloomy about their future finances as well — 24 of the 28 countries surveyed posted record lows in economic optimism. The United Kingdom, Germany, and France, for instance, reported only 23%, 15%, and 12% confidence levels respectively.

☆ CEOs Say They Expect a U.S. Recession, but Most Think It Will Be Short
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Theo Francis | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Top executives in much of the world are preparing for an economic downturn that is shorter and milder than usual, so they are focused on weathering the slowdown without widespread job cuts, a new survey found. Significant majorities of corporate leaders outside China and Japan expect growth to return by late 2023 or the first half of 2024, according to an annual survey of more than 1,100 executives by the Conference Board, a not-for-profit business-research organization.

☆ CEOs taking steps to amp up innovation and digital transformation, says Conference Board's Steve Odland
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCEOs taking steps to amp up innovation and digital transformation, says Conference Board's Steve OdlandSteve Odland, The Conference Board president, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss December's CPI report and CEO recession concerns.

☆ Strong U.S. jobs, wages growth expected in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets. Household employment decreased in October and November, leading some economists to speculate that overall job growth was overstated. Yet the household survey tends to be volatile and most economists expect household employment would be revised toward nonfarm payrolls. "We would not be surprised to see an even larger rebound in household employment in December or over the coming months." But the trend in employment growth could slow significantly by mid-year.

☆ A 30-year investing vet who called the latest bear market warns that stocks have another 41% downside with US economy already in recession and the Fed continuing to ratchet up rates
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks the US economy is already in recession. With growth slowing and the Fed still tightening, Wolfenbarger thinks stocks are due for big losses. The S&P 500 is already down around 20% year-to-date. All of that spells further trouble ahead for stocks, Wolfenbarger said, despite the fact that the S&P 500 has already fallen about 20% in 2022. In a recessionary scenario, Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,150, though that is not his base case.

☆ Peterson: If consumers continue to feel good about their jobs, they'll go out and spend, helping to limit the severity of a recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeterson: If consumers continue to feel good about their jobs, they'll go out and spend, helping to limit the severity of a recessionDana Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, expects a short & shallow recession for the U.S. economy next year, marked by negative growth in consumer spending, business capex pulling back and continued weakness in housing.

☆ UBS' Art Cashin says this is the next key level to watch for the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Keep an eye on the 3,800 level as the market sell-off picks up once again and investors put their hopes on a yearend rally, UBS' Art Cashin told CNBC's " Squawk on the Street " on Thursday. "That one-two combination this morning has us down, testing a very important 3,800 level in the S & P," he said. The comments from Cashin come after Tepper, the founder of Appaloosa Management, told CNBC on Thursday that he's bearish on the stock market heading into 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S & P 500 fell more than 1% each, while the Nasdaq Composite was down more than 2% in late-morning trading. The S & P 500 traded around 3,808.

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, (NYSE) in New York, NY, U.S., April 30, 2018. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose about 1.1% on the day, although it is on track for a more than 3% decline in December. This year, the index is set to have fallen for eight out of 12 months, on a par only with 2008 for the number of monthly losses in a calendar year on record. In Europe, shares more than recovered the previous day's 0.4% drop, helped in part by a rally in sportswear stocks. Citi analysts said the calm in equity markets might not last, and thin, year-end trading could lead to volatility.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence rebounds; existing home sales sink
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"The outlook for consumer confidence in 2023 will hinge on the Fed's ability to deliver a soft landing on what could be described as a narrow runway." The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 108.3 this month, the highest reading since April, from 101.4 in November. While the survey places more emphasis on the labor market, the rebound in confidence matched a similar rise in the University of Michigan's sentiment index. The improvement, which mostly reflected lower gasoline prices, was in line with recent data showing consumer prices increasing moderately in November. But with the housing market in the doldrums, economists believe the labor market will loosen and unemployment increase next year.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence rebounds in December
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, Dec 21(Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in December as inflation retreated and the labor market remained strong, but fears of a recession next year persisted, a survey showed on Wednesday. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 108.3 this month from 101.4 in November. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations fell to 6.7%, the lowest since September 2021, from 7.1% last month. The present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, rose to 147.2 from 138.3 last month. The expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased to 82.4 from 76.7.

☆ Dow jumps 526 points as earnings beat from Nike and upbeat sentiment data show resilience of the consumer
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

US stocks surged on Wednesday after data showed a resilient consumer heading into 2023. Consumer confidence rose to its highest level since April, according to data from the Conference Board. Nike soared 13% after it said footwear and apparel sales rose 25% and 4% in the quarter, respectively. Earnings results from Nike also showed that consumers remain relatively resilient to higher interest rates and elevated inflation. Nike rallied 14% in Wednesday trades after the company said footwear and apparel sales rose 25% and 4% in the quarter, respectively.

☆ Consumer confidence improves in December, a hopeful sign for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —American consumers’ confidence in the US economy grew in December as high inflation continued to ease, according to data released Wednesday by the Conference Board. The business think tank’s latest consumer confidence index registered 108.3 this month, a significant jump from the upwardly revised measure of 101.4 in November. Economists were expecting the index to come in at 101, according to consensus estimates on Refinitiv. Consumer confidence, as measured by this and other surveys like the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index, has mostly been on a downward trajectory for much of 2022 as the country grappled with the highest rates of inflation seen in four decades. During 2019, the headline consumer confidence index had an average reading of 128.5.

☆ Dow surges thanks to strong earnings and confident consumers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks surged Wednesday as investors cheered healthy results from two of America’s leading companies and a surprisingly strong reading on consumer sentiment. The Dow was up more than 500 points, or 1.6%, after FedEx (FDX) and Dow component Nike (NKE) each reported earnings that topped analysts’ forecasts. Still, the market could at least finish 2022 on a positive note following strong gains for stocks in both October and November. The jump in sentiment on Main Street came even as more signs point to a continued slowdown in the housing market. But BlackBerry (BB), the former mobile device leader that has since morphed into a cybersecurty company, tumbled 7% to a new 52-week low following a weak outlook.

☆ Take Five: Keeping the lights on
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

1/PICKING A (JAPANESE) PIVOTEven the uber-dovish Bank of Japan has not been spared from investors trying to pick central bank pivot points. France is striving to avert power cuts, and Germany is bleeding cash to keep the lights on. Thursday has meetings scheduled for Indonesia - where the central bank has just seen growth added to its mandate - as well as Egypt, which is in line for support from the International Monetary Fund. Expectations of a softer dollar as the U.S. economy slows have sparked optimism about emerging markets, which should also benefit from China easing COVID-19 restrictions. Emerging markets interest ratesCompiled by Karin Strohecker, Graphics by Sumanta Sen and Vincent Flasseur, editing by Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Didn't get a big raise this year? It could come in early 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Jennifer Liu | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

For workers, that means wage growth will remain strong in the first half of the year but could slow by the middle of 2023. Here's a look at where wages grew throughout the year and where they could be headed in 2023. Wage growth in 2023 will still be higher than pre-pandemic norms of around 3%, says Nela Richardson, chief economist at the payroll processor ADP. Wage growth resulting from shortages and competition does the opposite." Wage growth could stall by the end of 2023

Wage gains are strong and consumption, the mainstay of U.S. economic growth, continues to increase even after adjusting for inflation. Many factors influence when and if the economy falls into recession; but invariably it will involve rising unemployment and falling consumption. They have telegraphed plans to keep raising interest rates for now as they try to cool the economy and keep prices in check. To date, Fed officials do not feel they have overstepped. "The greatest upside risk is also linked to monetary policy actions," if the Fed navigates the economy to its aimed-for "soft landing" that avoids recession.

☆ Here are 5 reasons why the US could be in a recession by March, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy could enter a recession in 10-12 weeks, according to Bank of America. These are the five reasons why Bank of America believes a recession could hit by March 2023. This potential recession has been called the most telegraphed recession in history because everyone seems to be expecting a decline. Bank stocks are down 10% in just four days. Bank stocks are often described as a "canary in the coal mine", and feel the pain of a downturn earlier than stocks in other sectors.

☆ Recession fears have paralyzed Wall Street as 2023 stock market predictions turn unusually bearish
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Wall Street has turned unusually bearish on the stock market as their 2023 predictions arrive. Ongoing fears of an imminent economic recession have paralyzed Wall Street strategists. For the first time in more than 20 years, Wall Street expects a flat year for stocks in 2023. But this year, that's not the case, as more and more 2023 stock market predictions show an unusually gloomy outlook for the S&P 500. Even heading into 2009, when the global financial system was on the brink of collapse, Wall Street strategists expected a 10% annual return for stocks.

☆ 98% of CEOs are expecting a recession, says Conference Board chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email98% of CEOs are expecting a recession, says Conference Board chief economistDana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss why corporate executives expect the U.S. to enter a recession.

The tech industry accounts for about one-quarter of this year's job cuts, Challenger data show. The automotive industry has had 30,669 job cuts announced, compared with 10,277 through November 2021. And real estate has had 7,919 cuts announced this year, compared with 2,762 in 2021 year-to-date. "We've seen a lot of job cuts around mortgage origination and fintech firms in mortgages. U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November alone, more than double the 33,843 cuts announced in October and four-times the number of cuts announced last November, Challenger data show.

☆ The Fed clearly thinks it still has work to do against inflation, says Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed clearly thinks it still has work to do against inflation, says Roger FergusonRoger Ferguson, vice chairman of the Business Council and trustee of the Conference Board and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, and The Wall Street Journal's Greg Ip join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the market's reaction to recent comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

☆ Premarket stocks: Consumers are keeping the economy afloat... for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What’s happening: Americans appear to be indulging in a healthy dose of retail therapy despite stubbornly high inflation and the possibility of a recession ahead. Consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, and the last two months of the year can account for about 20% of total retail sales — even more for some retailers, according to NRF. But when the Federal Reserve is actively trying to squash high inflation rates, they risk becoming a fly in the ointment. “Consumers’ spending is more or less unfazed not only by high inflation, but also the rate hikes intended to get prices under control,” economists at Wells Fargo wrote. The high rate of spending could agitate investors in this good-news-is-bad-news economy because it adds to inflationary pressures.

☆ U.S. consumer confidence at four-month low; house price growth slows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The labor market has remained resilient despite the Federal Reserve's stiff interest rate increases, helping to keep consumer spending and the overall economy afloat. "That tectonic shift in consumer confidence from inflation worries to job concerns is coming though." The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 100.2, the lowest reading since July, from 102.2 in October. Though house prices have came off the record highs reached during the COVID-19 pandemic-driven housing market boom, they remain significantly high. A third report from the Federal Housing Finance Agency showed house prices increased 11.0% in the 12 months through September after advancing 12.0% in August.

☆ There are mixed signals in this month's consumer confidence data: The Conference Board's Odland
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere are mixed signals in this month's consumer confidence data: The Conference Board's OdlandSteve Odland, The Conference Board CEO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the biggest cause for the consumer confidence data falling, what's behind the record spending over Black Friday and his take on Apple's supply chain woes in China.

☆ What protests in China may mean for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN Business —Protests against China’s prolonged and restrictive Covid regulations spread across the country over the weekend. Oil plunged and hit 2022 lows on Monday, while shares of companies that rely on China for production felt the heat. Oil prices dropped sharply, with investors concerned that surging Covid cases and protests in China may sap demand from one of the world’s largest oil consumers. They don’t want to end their covid policy but they also want to ensure that the political unrest doesn’t grow. This week is chock full of important economic data releases, many of which will help guide the Fed’s next interest rate hike decision in December.

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