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The investment case for India is hard to argue with, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley — but they warn that upcoming elections with "potential binary outcomes sets the market up for volatility." "Government policy remains supportive, and the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) executes a calibrated exit from its current hold stance. For Morgan Stanley, the downside, or bear case, to its forecast would see India's elections result in a change in government. Focus list of overweight-rated stocks Looking ahead to India in 2024, Morgan Stanley is overweight on companies in the financials, consumer discretionary, industrials and technology sectors. From the financial services sector, Morgan Stanley is overweight on ICICI Bank and insurer SBI Life Insurance .
Persons: Morgan Stanley —, Ridham Desai, Narendra Modi, Morgan Stanley, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bombay Stock Exchange, Reserve Bank of India, International Monetary Fund, Maruti Suzuki, Hindustan Aeronautics, Infosys, ICICI Bank, SBI Life Insurance Locations: India, U.S, Government, F2026E
The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped 0.1% to 103.37 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance since November 2022. The market is also eyeing a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. In other currencies, the euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0937 . Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.4% to 148.885 yen . The dollar extended losses after data showed U.S. new home sales fell more than expected in October, dropping 5.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units.
Persons: ECB's Lagarde, Helen, Christine Lagarde's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Monex USA, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of New, Australian, greenback, New, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, China, New York, London, Singapore
The pound was on track for a roughly 3.8% gain for the month, its largest monthly gain in a year. Elsewhere, the dollar fell 0.32% to 148.97 yen , while the euro gained 0.2% to $1.0952. The dollar index slipped 0.12% to 103.31 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance in a year. In China, the yuan slipped after the official midpoint snapped five straight sessions of strengthening, with the onshore yuan last at 7.1550 per dollar. Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Gerry Doyle and Christopher CushingOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Jane Foley, Rae Wee, Gerry Doyle, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of New, PMI, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Traders, Rabobank, ", Fed, New, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, China, Beijing
[1/4] Andrew Hauser, who has been appointed the next Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, is seen in this undated handout photo distributed on November 27, 2023. Australian Government/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsSYDNEY, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Australia on Monday appointed the Bank of England's (BoE) Andrew Hauser as the new deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), filling a position that had been vacant since Michele Bullock was elevated to the top role in late September. Hauser, who currently serves as the executive director at markets at the BoE, is expected to start before the first RBA board meeting next year. Governor Bullock welcomed the appointment. "I warmly congratulate Andrew on his appointment...He has great experience and will bring a welcome external perspective to the Bank and the Reserve Bank Board."
Persons: Andrew Hauser, BoE, Michele Bullock, Hauser, Governor Bullock, Andrew, Lewis Jackson, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Government, REUTERS Acquire, Rights, Monday, Bank of England's, London School of Economics, Bank, Reserve Bank Board, Thomson Locations: Australia
Andrew Hauser, executive director of markets at the Bank of England, has been appointed the new deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. Australia on Monday appointed the Bank of England's, or BoE, Andrew Hauser as the new deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, or RBA, filling a position that had been vacant since Michele Bullock was elevated to the top role two months ago. Hauser, the executive director of markets at the BoE, is expected to start his five-year term before the first RBA board meeting next year. "I am humbled and deeply honored to be asked to serve as the RBA's next Deputy Governor," said Hauser, who is British and has 30 years of experience at the BoE. Hauser has a master's degree in economics from the London School of Economics and a degree from Oxford University.
Persons: Andrew Hauser, BoE, Michele Bullock, Hauser Organizations: Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Monday, Bank of England's, British, London School of Economics, Oxford University Locations: Australia
In this photo illustration, a old British £1 note is pictured with a one Dollar bill note on November 05, 2023 in Bath, England. The Australian dollar likewise stood near a roughly three-month high and last bought $0.6578, ahead of domestic inflation data on Wednesday. The weakening greenback provided some respite for the Japanese yen , which sat on the stronger side of 150 per dollar and last stood at 149.52 per dollar. The New Zealand dollar eased 0.1% to $0.6076, but was likewise hovering near Friday's more than three-month high of $0.6096. "I think the issues in the Middle East have definitely become more of a background risk," said CBA's Kong.
Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Jane Foley, CBA's Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of New, PMI, Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S ., U.S, Rabobank, Fed, New Zealand, Israel Locations: Bath, England, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Friday's, U.S, East, Gaza
A man looks at an electric monitor displaying the Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan October 4, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. Volatility across major asset classes is low - implied volatility on Wall Street is at its lowest in almost four years, global currency implied vol is the lowest since early last year, and U.S. bond vol is at a two-month low. China's markets, especially, have lagged, although Japanese stocks have outperformed thanks to the weak yen and a historic loosening of wider financial conditions. The Aussie on Monday rose above $0.66 for the first time since Aug. 10 and was one of the biggest winners among major currencies along with the Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar.
Persons: Issei Kato, Goldman Sachs, Michele Bullock, Bullock, Philip Lowe, Bullock's, Fed's Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee, Barr, Jamie McGeever Organizations: U.S ., Nikkei, REUTERS, Reserve Bank of Australia, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Bank for International, New Zealand, Bank of, RBA, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, Bank of Japan, Australia
The pincer movement of these two policy actions drove the Fed to start losing money in September 2022. The central bank captures the net negative income situation in an accounting measure called a deferred asset, which as of Nov. 22 stood at $120.4 billion. As the Fed sees it, the deferred asset is what must be covered before the central bank can again return excess earnings to the Treasury. The Fed has repeatedly stressed that losing money in no way impacts its ability to operate and conduct monetary policy. The research from the St. Louis Fed estimates it will cover the deferred asset by mid-2027.
Persons: Louis, Joseph Wang, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal, U.S . Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Fed, Treasury, Louis Fed, Treasury Department, Reuters, New York Fed, Thomson
A smartphone with the Apple Pay logo is placed on a displayed Google Pay logo in this illustration taken on July 14, 2021. Digital wallets from the likes of Apple (AAPL.O), Google (GOOGL.O) and WeChat developer Tencent (0700.HK) have exploded in popularity but are not captured by Australian payments law. "We are modernising Australia's payments system to ensure it meets the needs of our economy now and into the future," Treasurer Jim Chalmers said in a statement. "We want to make sure the increasing use of digital payments occurs in a way that helps promote greater competition, innovation and productivity across our entire economy." Regulators are responding to the rapid growth of digital wallets, especially among the young.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Lewis Jackson, Jamie Freed Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Rights, Google, HK, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson
A worker is reflected in a wall of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) head office in central Sydney, Australia, March 1, 2016. The bill would implement the recommendations of a review of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released in April that requires legislation enacted by parliament, Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday. "We want to ensure Australia's central bank remains world class with a monetary policy framework fit to meet our current and future economic challenges," Chalmers said in a statement. The Treasury Laws Amendment (Reserve Bank Reforms) Bill 2023 will reinforce the RBA's independence from government, including by repealing the power of the treasurer to overrule monetary policy decisions, he said. Chief among them was to split the RBA's board into one for monetary policy and one for governance.
Persons: David Gray, Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Bill, Renju Jose, William Mallard Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, REUTERS, Rights, Australian, Policy Board, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia
TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares retreated Monday as investors awaited updates on consumer spending and inflation in the U.S. and other nations. While analysts expect them to stand pat on policy, attention remains relatively high, given concerns about inflation. Wall Street ended last week mixed with a half-day trading session that capped a fourth straight winning week. The holiday shopping season kicked off with Black Friday amid concerns that spending may slow under pressure from dwindling savings, rising credit card debt and inflation. The major stock indexes’ latest weekly gains reflect a turnaround in the market’s sentiment in November following a three-month slide.
Persons: ” Yeap Jun Rong, Hong, Hang Seng, Brent, Yuri Kageyama Organizations: TOKYO, Nikkei, IG, Shanghai, Reserve Bank of New, Bank of Korea, Bank of, Black, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Google, CF Industries, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Benchmark, New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S Locations: U.S, China, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Bank of Thailand
The government may fall short of its divestment goal by 300 billion rupees ($3.60 billion) in 2023/24, two government sources told Reuters. New Delhi had targeted 510 billion rupees from divestment proceeds for the current fiscal year that ends March, 2024. So far this year, the government has received 80 billion rupees through stake sales, according to government data. The government expects to surpass its 430 billion rupees dividend target and has so far received 203 billion rupees from state-run firms. "As long as the government is meeting its fiscal targets and there isn't a shortfall, missing divestment targets is fine," said Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays Investment Bank.
Persons: Niharika Kulkarni, Narendra Modi's, Subhash Chandra Garg, Rahul Bajoria, Nikunj Ohri, Sam Holmes Organizations: IDBI, REUTERS, Reuters, IDBI Bank, NMDC Steel, Reserve Bank of India, NMDC, Barclays Investment Bank, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, DELHI, New Delhi, Chhattisgarh
New Zealand's Foreign Minister Winston Peters arrives at a news conference after he attended an emergency meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in Istanbul, Turkey, March 22, 2019. The role of deputy prime minister, a key sticking point in the discussions, will be split between the populist NZ First party leader Winston Peters and ACT party leader David Seymour, the group announced in a statement. National Party deputy leader Nicola Willis will be finance minister and Peters will be foreign minister, the parties said. The coalition plans to repeal a ban on offshore oil and gas exploration and a ban on the sale of cigarettes to future generations introduced by the previous Labour government, according to coalition documents. "Foreign affairs does matter to this country.... all relationships do matter to this country," Peters said in a joint news conference in the capital Wellington after the announcement.
Persons: Winston Peters, Murad Sezer, David Seymour, Nicola Willis, Peters, Christopher Luxon, Luxon, ” Luxon, Jacinda, Helen Clark, Lucy Craymer, Praveen Menon, Diane Craft Organizations: Zealand's, of Islamic Cooperation, REUTERS, ACT NZ, National Party, NZ First, ACT, Party, Reserve, New Zealand, Bank of New, Labour, , New Zealanders, Police, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, WELLINGTON, Bank of New Zealand, Wellington, Niue
Asia stocks slip as dovish Fed cheer fades
  + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
But it fell 0.2% in early trade on Wednesday. Nasdaq futures (.IXIC) were down 0.2% and S&P 500 futures fell 0.1% early in the Asia day. They have fallen about 50 basis points since the Fed held rates steady early in the month. It was broadly steady at $1.0921 to the euro and 148.17 yen in early trade on Wednesday. In commodity markets Brent crude futures held just above their 50-day moving average at $82.64 a barrel.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, Naka, Rabobank's, Philip Marey, Jonathan Petersen, Michele Bullock, Changpeng Zhao, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Nasdaq, Thursday's, Federal Reserve, Fed, Capital Economics, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Wednesday Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, United States, U.S, Singapore
Overall, Adobe estimates one in five Americans plan to use buy now, pay later plans to purchase holiday gifts. Retailers have found that customers offered a buy now, pay later option are more likely to have bigger cart sizes or to convert from browsing to checking out. In its report, the Fed cites research that finds that customers spend 20% more when buy now, pay later is available. LexisNexis Risk Solutions provides many buy now, pay later lenders with alternative credit scores for assessing consumers seeking loans, including those who may not have a traditional credit score. In the past two years, Williams has used buy now, pay later plans at stores including Target, BoxLunch, EyeBuyDirect, and Skims.
Persons: Vivek Pandya, Demishia Alford, Alford, , , she’ll, I’ll, I’m, ” Kevin King, Kevin, ” Alford, Jessica Sarceda, ” Sarceda, Sarceda, Allison Williams, Williams, , ” Jinal Shah, Charles Schwab Organizations: , Federal Reserve Bank of New, Adobe, Adobe Digital, , Retailers, Fed, Consumers, Walmart, LexisNexis, Solutions, Nike, Target, Zip, Associated Press, Charles, Charles Schwab Foundation, Inc, AP Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Greensboro , North Carolina, Santa Monica , California, Amelia , Ohio
The typical Swiftie is spending $1,300 to go to the Eras Tour but might make under $50,000. And if there's one thing that Taylor Swift fans were ready to do this year, it was flashing their dollars at the singer. Additionally, while Swift fans skew female, 48% of those Swift fans are male. What's more, even as many Swift fans are spending thousands on the Eras Tour, most are not high-earners. And Briggs noted that TikTok has been a big driver of the culture of the Eras Tour, from friendship bracelets to showing off outfits.
Persons: Taylor Swift, , Archer, Ellyn Briggs, they're, Jaime Toplin, Swift, Briggs, Toplin, TikTok Organizations: Democratic, Service, Swift, Morning, Washington Post, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
Industry practice suggests that a large share of hedge funds trading in repo markets put up zero collateral, meaning they are fuelling activity using enormous amounts of cheap debt. A looming rule by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission would expand the use of central clearing in the cash Treasury and repo market. SEC chair Gary Gensler recently promoted the benefits of central clearing and pointed to data showing high levels of repo trades transacted at zero haircuts. James Tabacchi, CEO of South Street Securities, called zero haircuts a "race to the bottom" and not healthy for markets. However, some market participants have voiced concerns that some of the proposed reforms could be a hurdle for some investors, potentially undermining the goal to improve liquidity and resilience in the Treasury market.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Christopher Clarke, Gary Gensler, James Tabacchi, Richard Chambers, Goldman Sachs, Davide Barbuscia, Megan Davies, Paritosh Bansal, Sonali Paul Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Industry, repo, North America Sovereign Financing, Morgan Securities, Treasury, Federal Reserve Bank of New, U.S . Securities, Exchange, Corporation, SEC, . Federal Reserve, South Street Securities, Goldman, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Treasuries, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Carolina
Wall Street is keenly focused on what officials will do next. Fed policymakers had predicted one more 2023 rate move as of their September economic projections, but investors think that there is little chance they will raise rates at their final meeting of the year on Dec. 12-13. Those, together with remarks from Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell, could provide important clues about the future. As of now, market pricing suggests that Wall Street expects policymakers to begin lowering interest rates at some point in the first half of 2024. Several central bankers have been clear in recent weeks that they aren’t sure they are done raising interest rates.
Persons: Jerome H, Powell, ” Susan Collins Organizations: , Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, CNBC
U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S
People walk by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in the financial district of New York City, U.S., June 14, 2023. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Demand for new credit in the U.S. over the last year has declined and will likely stay soft in the future, according to a survey released on Monday by the New York Federal Reserve. But even as the overall application rate for new credit declined among those surveyed, interest in applying for more credit card debt rose. The survey said that reading had hit 29% as of October and was 26% for 2023, compared to a 27.2% credit card application rate in 2019. The report noted that expected decline in applications for credit extended to new credit cards, auto loans, mortgages and home refinancing.
Persons: Shannon Stapleton, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Federal Reserve, Fed, Consumer, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S
The Canadian central bank expects that the economy will avoid a recession, and last month forecast growth of 0.8% for both the third and fourth quarters. Since then, preliminary data has indicted a shallow economic contraction for a second straight quarter in the third quarter. Analysts say that if U.S. activity slows, then the Canadian economy could shrink in the current quarter as well. BMO projects that U.S. growth will slow to 0.9% in the fourth quarter and that Canada's economy will shrink 1%. The potential for further weakening in the Canadian economy is already evident in money markets.
Persons: Chris Helgren, Karl Schamotta, Sal Guatieri, Stephen Brown, Brown, Fergal Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Roberts Bank, REUTERS, Rights TORONTO, Bank of, BoC, BMO Capital Markets, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta's, BMO, North, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: Delta, British Columbia, Canada, United States, Bank of Canada, Canadian, U.S, sniffles, North America
Morning Bid: Thanksgiving starters of AI and oil
  + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. Thanksgiving may make for a clipped U.S. markets week, but there's plenty to chew on around the world before then - and a feast of intrigue in the artificial intelligence space. His plans include shutting the central bank, ditching the peso and dollarizing the economy and slashing spending with potentially painful reforms. The risk premium between German and Italian 10-year yields tightened to 170 bps - the lowest since Sept. 21.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Sam Altman, That's, thrall, Javier Milei, Milei, Jeremy Hunt, Andrew Bailey ,, Francois Villeroy de, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Big Tech, Nvidia, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Bank, Bayer, Federal Reserve Bank of England, Andrew Bailey , Bank of France, Bank of Spain, Technologies, Keysight Technologies, Holdings Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, OPEC, Tokyo, Europe, Canada, Francois Villeroy de Galhau
“Any time we’ve had a serious cut to the inflation rate, it’s come with a major recession," Goolsbee said in an interview with The Associated Press. “And so the golden path is a ... bigger soft landing than conventional wisdom believes has ever been possible. Last week, the government reported that inflation cooled in October, with core prices — which exclude volatile food and energy prices — rising just 0.2% from September. The year-over-year increase in core prices — 4% — was the smallest in two years. The Fed tracks core prices because they are considered a better gauge of inflation's future path.
Persons: Goolsbee, we’ve, ” Goolsbee, , Susan Collins, ” Collins, hasn't Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Associated Press, Wall, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Passersby wait at a crossing in front of an electronic board showing Japan's Nikkei average outside a brokerage, in Tokyo, Japan, March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNov 21 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Alden Bentley, U.S. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) is now less than 2% away from its highest level this year that was reached in July. There are few potential U.S. market moving events this week, besides Tuesday's day early release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's last meeting. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Androniki, Alden Bentley, Satya Nadella, Sam Altman Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, Breaking, Finance, Markets, Reuters, Microsoft, Treasury, Fed, Federal, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia, Kuaishou Technology, Tongcheng Travel, Alden Bentley Our, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Alden, U.S, Asia
Nov 20 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. China's latest interest rate decision will be the main focus for Asian markets on Monday, with investors also eyeing third-quarter GDP from Thailand, and trade figures from Malaysia and Taiwan. On Monday, the People's Bank of China is widely expected to leave lending benchmark rates unchanged. All 26 market watchers in a Reuters poll expect the one-year and five-year loan prime rates to be held steady at 3.45% and 4.20%, respectively. It is why Beijing's policy decisions are so important: as long as the interest rate spread remains heavily against the Chinese yuan, these outflows will likely persist.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Japan's Nikkei, Equity, People's Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank Indonesia, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Thailand, Malaysia, Taiwan, Asia, Japan, People's Bank of China, Bangkok, Bank of Japan, China
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