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☆ Stock markets today: Indexes slip as jobless claims rise ahead of highly anticipated jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Indexes edged lower Thursday as investors assessed jobless claims and geopolitical tensions. On Friday, investors will get a fresh labor market update from the September nonfarm payrolls report. AdvertisementUS stocks inched lower on Thursday, fueled by an uptick in jobless claims ahead of a key jobs report and continued tensions in the Middle East. Analysts say the report will likely have a big influence on both markets and the Fed in the coming weeks. Advertisement"We think a soft employment report is likely to generate a larger market response vs a strong labor report," Bank of America analysts said in a Wednesday report.

Persons: —, Israel Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Israel, Federal, Bank of America, Trump, RBC Locations: Iran

☆ Stock market today: Indexes fall, oil surges on Middle East turmoil ahead of jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Traders are watching rising risks to oil supplies as tensions in the Middle East escalate. US oil spiked 5.5% to $73.98 a barrel and Brent prices rose more than 5% to trade at $77.86. If the conflict destroys Iran's oil infrastructure, oil prices could surge 161% to over $200 a barrel, according to SEB's chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop. AdvertisementInvestors are eagerly awaiting the September jobs report, due Friday, for further signs of labor market health. Markets are pricing in a 65% chance of a smaller 25 basis point cut in November, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Persons: Friday's nonfarm, Biden, —, Joe Biden, retaliating, Biden's, Brent, Bjarne Schieldrop, Economists, Jensen Huang, Blackwell Organizations: Traders, Service, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Israel, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Costco Locations: Israel, Iran

☆ Active bond funds put up a strong performance — and they may be poised to stand out as rates fall
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Over the 12-month period ending June, about 2 of 3 active bond managers trounced their average passive counterpart, according to a recent analysis from Morningstar . There were a few tailwinds in active managers' favor. With the Fed recently cutting rates by a half point — and Chair Jerome Powell noting that two more quarter-point cuts could be in the cards this year — a new challenge awaits these active bond funds. As interest rates fall, active managers can position accordingly, said Roger Hallam, global head of rates at Vanguard. "We expect active managers to make a little more, and they should be because they're doing more trades and it costs more to manage active portfolios," said Olmsted.

Persons: —, Ryan Jackson, Jerome Powell, it's, Jackson, Paul Olmsted, Roger Hallam, wouldn't, Hallam, Morningstar, Olmsted Organizations: Federal Reserve, Morningstar, Vanguard, Bond Fund, SEC

☆ Why China's massive stimulus effort might not have any effect until next year
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The direct effects of China's latest stimulus may not kick in until 2025, one researcher says. That's because Beijing needs to ramp up spending in addition to monetary stimulus measures. Lower interest rates, for one, may not entice households and businesses to borrow, or banks to ramp up lending, given China's already-sluggish economic environment. In particular, Beijing needs more fiscal stimulus to go alongside its monetary stimulus measures, Huang said. Experts have warned that China's economic problems could stick around for the long term given some of the nation's deep-rooted issues, like its population decline.

Persons: —, Tianlei Huang, Huang Organizations: Service, Peterson Institute for International Economics, National, Terry Locations: Beijing

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☆ Modelo brewer Constellation falls despite an earnings beat. Here's why we're not concerned
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kevin Stankiewicz | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Modelo and Corona brewer Constellation Brands is a tale of two businesses. Constellation Brands Why we own it : Constellation Brands' beer franchise, which includes popular Mexican brands Modelo, Corona and Pacifico, is the growth engine and by far the most attractive part of the business. And, the profitability of its beer business — operating margins were an impressive 42.6% in the quarter — puts Constellation in a position of strength. Still, raising an anchor is always welcome news, and talk of its booming beer business would, at last, no longer need the wine-and-spirits caveat. Looking ahead, its beer business should continue grabbing market share and its hard to imagine the wine-and-spirits unit getting much worse.

Persons: Bill Newlands, Thursday's, Newlands, Kim Crawford, There's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Corona, Constellation Brands, LSEG, Modelo, Anheuser, Busch Inbev, Molson Coors, Investors, Constellation, National Football League, Bloomberg, Brier, Modelo Especial, CNBC Locations: Corona, Pacifico, Wednesday's, U.S, Campo, West Coast, San Rafael , California

☆ Champions League Wednesday: Prince William watches Aston Villa, Real Madrid suffers shock defeat
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( George Ramsay | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Prince William watches Aston Villa stun Bayern MunichAston Villa fan Prince William was in the stands to celebrate his team’s memorable win against Bayern Munich. 15-time Champions League winner Real Madrid suffered its first defeat of the season with a 1-0 loss against Lille, an early setback in the team’s European title defense. Kylian Mbappé, hoping to win a first Champions League of his career, was left frustrated against Lille. With that, Salah stretched his run of scoring at home in the Champions League to five matches – the first player in the club’s history to do so. Salah celebrates Liverpool's second goal.

Persons: Mohamed Salah, Here’s, Prince William, Aston, Jhon, Villa, Pau Torres ’, Durán, Manuel Neuer, Mike Egerton, Emi Martínez, Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, “, ”, Unai Emery, ‘, Eduardo Camavinga’s, Jonathan David, Andriy Lunin’s, Tiago Santos, Antonio Rüdiger’s, Lucas Chevalier, Jude Bellingham’s, Kylian Mbappé, Stephanie Lecocq, Arda Güler, Les Dogues, Carlo Ancelotti, Alexis Mac Allister, Dan Ndoye, Salah, Liverpool's, Paul Ellis, Arne, Michele Di Gregorio, Vlahović, Benjamin Šeško, Di Gregorio, Douglas Luiz, –, Šeško, Signora, Francisco Conceição, David Raum’s, Lisi Niesner, Germain Organizations: CNN, Aston Villa, Bayern Munich Aston Villa, Bayern Munich, Bayern, Press Association, Villa, Champions League, Dinamo Zagreb, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund –, ’, Lille, Real Madrid, League, France’s, Sporting CP, Bologna, Reds, Italian, Milan, Liverpool, Getty, Champions League –, ” Juventus, Juventus, RB Leipzig, Juve, Reuters, Salzburg, Brest Stuttgart, Sparta Prague Arsenal, Paris Saint, Germain Barcelona, Young Boys Bayer Leverkusen, Milan Borussia Dortmund, Celtic Internazionale, zvezda, Red Star Belgrade, PSV, Sporting Clube de Portugal Slovan Bratislava, Manchester City Shakhtar Donetsk, Atalanta Girona, Feyenoord Benfica, Madrid Liverpool, Bologna RB Leipzig, Juventus Lille, Real Madrid SK Sturm Graz, Brugge Aston Villa, Bayern Munich Dinamo Zagreb, AS Monaco Locations: Europe, Manchester, Barcelona, underwhelm, France’s Ligue, Matchweek, Bologna, AFP, Paris

☆ $100 oil could be the October surprise no one wanted
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN —The Middle East is in chaos, and the oil market is remarkably calm about it. The chill reaction in the oil market reflects a boy-who-cried-wolf mindset that has set in. Even just two years ago, oil prices skyrocketed to $130 a barrel in March 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Oil prices skyrocketed in 2019 when Saudi oil facilities were damaged in an attack that US officials blamed on Iran. A disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could send oil prices above $100 a barrel, according to ClearView.

Persons: ”, Bob McNally, “, It’s, McNally, George W, Bush, Israel, ” Helima, Joe Biden, Croft, internationalize, Kevin Book, ClearView, it’s, Biden Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Rapidan Energy Partners, Israel, RBC Capital Markets, CNN, CIA, ClearView Energy Partners, International Energy Agency, RBC, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Citigroup, Citi Locations: New York, Iran, China, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, United States, ” Helima Croft, Ukraine, Israel, Saudi, Strait, Hormuz, Riyadh, Persian

☆ Gold rangebound as investors brace for key U.S. economic data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Gold prices were trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of a key U.S. economic data that may provide clues about the size of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected later this year. Investors are watching out for the ISM services data and the initial jobless claims, due later in the day, along with the U.S. non-farm payroll data expected on Friday. Gold tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment and political turmoil. Elsewhere, Perth Mint's gold product sales touched a 10-month high in September, while silver sales hit a seven-month high.

Persons: Brian Lan, —, CME's, Lan Organizations: GoldSilver Central, Investors, U.S . Locations: Singapore, Israel, Beirut, Iran, Perth

☆ New Century's Claudia Sahm talks what to expect from the September jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew Century's Claudia Sahm talks what to expect from the September jobs reportClaudia Sahm, New Century Advisors chief economist and former Fed economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk Friday's jobs data and how it will impact the Federal Reserve's next rate hike decision.

Persons: Claudia Sahm Organizations: Claudia Sahm , New Century Advisors, Fed, Federal Locations: Claudia Sahm ,

☆ Oil market is short, says Carlyle Group's chief strategy officer
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailOil market is short, says Carlyle Group's chief strategy officerJeff Currie, the chief strategy officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group, discusses how the impact of the U.S. Federal Reserve, China stimulus measures and conflict in the Middle East is impacting oil and commodity markets.

Persons: Carlyle Group's, Jeff Currie Organizations: Email, Carlyle Group, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: China

☆ Friday’s jobs report could be the last normal one for a while
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

CNN —September’s jobs report, due out Friday morning, is expected to show that the US labor market has slowed somewhat but remains on solid footing. While September’s employment data is expected to stay relatively tame, the same can’t be said for the October jobs report, which is set to be released on November 1, just days before the presidential election. The strikes and hurricane-related effects “are not going to permanently alter the trajectory of the labor market; but September is probably our last clean reading on the labor market for a while,” Ryan Sweet, chief US economist at Oxford Economics, told CNN earlier this week. The August jobs report, which showed better-than-expected estimated 142,000 payroll gains and a drop in the unemployment rate, went a long way to quell those fears. It showed that the jobs market is in “stasis,” Wells Fargo economists wrote in a note issued Tuesday.

Persons: bode, Lydia Boussour, ” Ryan Sweet, Helene, ”, Erica Groshen, They’ve, “, Andrew Challenger, Wells, Noah Yosif, ’ Sweet, Ejindu Ume, “ We’re, ” Ume Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Boeing, Gulf Coasts, Oxford Economics, of Labor Statistics, Cornell University School of Industrial and Labor Relations, Employers, Challenger, Labor Department, Pantheon, Labor, BLS, “, American Staffing Association, Oxford, Miami University in Locations: EY, Hurricane, East, Gulf, Miami University in Ohio

☆ Treasury yields rise as attention shifts to jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over two basis points to 3.8056%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.6539% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Thursday as investors looked to the latest labor market insights and considered the state of the economy. Investors assessed the state of the economy as attention turned to the latest jobs data. Figures from ADP on Wednesday showed that private payrolls grew by more than expected in September, with private companies adding 143,000 jobs.

Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, Investors, U.S . Labor, Federal Reserve

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☆ Americans are able to bet on the US elections again after a legal fight
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Americans can bet on the outcome of US elections following a legal fight. Last month, Kalshi briefly listed bets on congressional election outcomes before the CFTC shut them down. On Wednesday, prediction market Kalshi got the go-ahead to take bets on congressional elections after a months-long legal battle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That makes it one of the only options for Americans to bet on election outcomes, and the only legal one for Americans to wager large amounts of money. The court's decision comes just five weeks before the elections, and follows years of legal battles between prediction markets and the CFTC.

Persons: Kalshi, —, CoinDesk, Harry Crane Organizations: CFTC, Service, Futures Trading Commission, Federal, Kalshi, Senate, Rutgers University Locations: New York, New Zealand

☆ Dollar hits one-month peak to yen as Fed seen taking time with rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The euro languished not far from a three-week trough reached in the previous session, after normally hawkish European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel took a dovish tone on inflation, cementing bets for a rate cut this month. Currently, traders lay 34.6% odds of another 50 basis-point U.S. rate cut on Nov. 7, after the Fed kicked off its easing cycle with a super-sized reduction last month. "I do think that if the payrolls report overall is not too shabby tomorrow night, then we will see that pricing (for a 50 basis-point cut) coming in quite significantly." The dollar added 0.09% to 146.575 yen after earlier reaching 146.885 for the first time since Sept. 3. The euro was little changed at $1.10455, sitting not far from Wednesday's low of $1.10325, a level last seen on Sept. 12.

Persons: European Central Bank policymaker Isabel Schnabel, Ray Attrill, Attrill, Asahi Noguchi, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Private U.S, ADP, Fed, National Australia Bank, Dovish Bank of Japan Locations: U.S, Iran, Israel

☆ Sterling plunges 1% against dollar after Bank of England governor's comments on rate policy
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-03 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, gestures as he addresses the media during a press conference at the Bank of England in London on Aug. 1, 2024. The British pound tumbled more than 1% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday after a The Guardian report that Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested more positive inflation data could lead the central bank toward a more aggressive approach to interest rate cuts. He also said he was encouraged that cost of living pressures had not been as persistent as previously thought, according to the Guardian. The central bank held its key rate in September, after cutting it by 25 basis points in August to 5%. During the September meeting, the institution expressed concerns about services inflation and the labor market, despite headline inflation hovering near its 2% target.

Persons: Andrew Bailey, Sterling, Bailey, BOE Organizations: Bank of England, U.S, Guardian, U.S . Federal, CNBC Locations: London, British

☆ A TV celebrity’s 15-year-old son went traveling in Europe without an adult. Cue the outrage
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Blane Bachelor | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +16 min

“My little boy has returned from 3 weeks inter-railing,” Allsopp wrote on X, referring to a popular European train pass called Interrail. There are additional requirements for French residents, and passengers under 16 are not allowed to travel unaccompanied by an adult on direct trains to or from the Netherlands. However, as the employee also noted, different member hostels may have their own rules about age requirements. The Netherlands-based Stayokay hostels, for example, require a minimum age of 16 years for travelers unaccompanied by an adult at their 21 locations. chekyfoto/iStock Editorial/Getty ImagesProponents of allowing eager young travelers to explore the world at ages that might raise a few eyebrows say the benefits can outweigh the risks.

Persons: CNN —, Kirstie Allsopp, ” Allsopp, Oscar, Allsopp, Lenore Shenazy, ’, Joe Maher, couldn’t, ” Carolyn Pearson, ” Pearson, Pearson, “, there’s, ” Mark Smith, ” Smith, Hilton, Cole Robinson, –, Robinson, ” Robinson, ”, Peter Austin, Jenny Rankin, Rankin, ” Rankin, Jonathan Alder, Jonathan’s, ” Alder, Alder, Carolyn Pearson, Michelle Couch, Friedman, Couch, “ I’ve, they’ve, it’s, ” Couch Organizations: CNN, CNN Travel, ”, Union, Eurostar, European Union, EU, Amtrak, Hostelling International, Resorts, South America, Filmit, “, –, Consumer Locations: Europe, Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, Berlin, Barcelona, Madrid, US, Netherlands, Hyatt, Manchester, Eixample, South, California, Japan, – Japan

☆ The big catalyst for the week: How to trade Friday’s job report
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The best-case scenario for stocks is if Friday's jobs report comes in slightly above consensus, according to JPMorgan. Here are the bank's five scenarios: Above 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 trades flat or as much as 0.5% higher. Between 160,000 to 200,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 gains between 1% and 1.5%. Between 140,000 to 160,000 jobs added: The S & P 500 rises by 0.75% to 1.25%. Between 110,000 to 140,000 jobs added: JPMorgan traders see the S & P 500 sliding between 0.5% and 1.5%.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, JPMorgan's, Michael Feroli, nonfarm Organizations: JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Locations: U.S

☆ Rates won't fall back to pre-pandemic levels as geopolitical conflict and supply chain issues create problems for world economies, BofA exec says
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's led the market to assume rates will fall to pre-pandemic lows, BofA's Bernard Mensah says. Yet, inflationary risks will likely keep rates elevated, Mensah says. Before the pandemic, in the decade following the Great Financial Crisis, interest rates remained at historical lows. Despite the Fed's apparent confidence that pricing pressures have eased, Mensah says a variety of inflationary risks will keep interest rates higher. Other analysts have also pointed to inflation risks from geopolitical conflicts.

Persons: That's, BofA's Bernard Mensah, Mensah, —, Bank of America's Bernard Mensah, Rowe Price, Tomasz Wieladek Organizations: Fed, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America's, Bloomberg Locations: US, China, England, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Mexico

☆ The East and Gulf Coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

President Biden said on Tuesday that his administration will be "monitoring for any price gouging activity" that benefits foreign ocean carriers, including those on the USMX board. He also said "foreign ocean carriers have made record profits since the pandemic, when Longshoremen put themselves at risk to keep ports open." UBS forecast that 20% of Maersk's total volume would touch a U.S. port that would be impacted by the strike. Acting Secretary Julie Su lashed out at the idea that labor wage increases would be passed onto U.S. exporters and importers. I know they understand, just as consumers and American workers understand, that foreign companies who profit from our economy and who employ American workers and have an impact on American consumers should do the right thing, and in that battle, we are always going to stand with American workers, American businesses and American consumers."

Persons: Biden, Longshoremen, majeure, Daggett, Harold Daggett, Lars Jenson, Pete Buttigieg, Julie Su, Taft, Hartley, Buttigieg, Larry Lindsey, Su, Peter Friedmann, I've, nonfarm, Helene, switchers, they're, Jim Bianco, CNBC's, Peter Boockvar, Alan Baer, Steve Lamar, Taft Hartley, Lamar, CNBC's Jeff Cox Organizations: CMA, U.S, United States Maritime Alliance, Vespucci, Federal Reserve, Transportation, Labor, International Longshoremen's Association, UBS, Maersk, Federal Maritime Commission, ILA, Boeing, The Lindsey Group, Agriculture Transportation Coalition, Bianco Research, Bleakley Financial, USA, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Biden Administration, — Locations: East, Gulf Coast, U.S, autoworkers

☆ Here's how to position your fixed income portfolio for lower rates, according to strategists
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Over time, riskier assets have outperformed cash and cash alternatives, said Brian Rehling, its head of global fixed income strategy. Different types of fixed income Investors can benefit from different types of fixed income in their portfolios, Citi said. But since then, both stocks and high-yield fixed income have increased in price. "Investors should consider taking advantage of any pullbacks in these asset classes to reposition overallocations to short-term fixed income," it said. Meanwhile, it likes U.S. intermediate term taxable fixed income, as it prefers bonds with maturities of between three and seven years.

Persons: Steven Wieting, Brian Rehling, Wells Fargo, overallocations Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Fed, Citi, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Securities . Investment Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells

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☆ These 3 indicators are pointing to a healthy labor market similar to the pre-pandemic boom, according to Goldman Sachs
▼ + stars: | 2024-10-02 | by ( Christine Ji | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are worried that labor market weakness could thwart a soft landing. AdvertisementAs inflation creeps downward, investors are increasingly turning their attention to the labor market to look for clues of a soft landing. Labor market fundamentals remain strong, according to Joseph Briggs, co-lead of Goldman Sachs' global economics team and a former Federal Reserve senior economist. "If we take a broad assessment across a number of different labor market indicators, they are still roughly where they were from 2017 to 2019, and that was a pretty healthy labor market," Briggs said. AdvertisementIn Briggs' view, the following three indicators point to a normalizing late-cycle labor market, and in turn, a strong economy.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joseph Briggs doesn't, Briggs, —, shouldn't, Joseph Briggs, We're Organizations: Service, Labor, Federal Reserve, Real

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