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The S & P 500 rallied more than 1% on Friday, above both its closing and intraday records that it last reached in January 2022. "Meaning that when a major index like the S & P 500, like the Nasdaq 100, reaches a new all time high, what it does is, it clears the charts of resistance." For 2024, Wald anticipates the S & P 500 will end the year at the 5,400 level, representing a roughly 12% rise from Friday's close of 4,839.81. Inflation data, earnings ahead Next week will also bring the Fed's preferred inflation gauge for December, which is expected to confirm the recent trend of easing inflation. Leading Indicators Tuesday Jan. 23 10 a.m. Richmond Fed Index (January) Earnings: General Electric , Synchrony Financial , D.R.
Persons: it's, Katie Stockton, we've, Oppenheimer's Ari Wald, Wald, Dow Jones, That's, Dave Sekera, Sekera, Jan, Johnson, Lockheed Martin, Lockheed Martin Wednesday Jan, Kimberly, Clark, Northrop Organizations: Fed, Nasdaq, Morningstar Research Services, Richmond Fed, Synchrony, Raytheon Technologies, Verizon Communications, Halliburton, Johnson, Procter, Gamble, Lockheed, Lockheed Martin Wednesday, PMI, SA, PMI Manufacturing SA, PMI Services SA, Abbott Laboratories, Chicago, New, . Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Northrop Grumman, Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Comcast, PCE, Norfolk, American, CNBC Locations: Stockton, U.S, Horton, Freeport, McMoRan, . Kansas
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch audio feature in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Goldman Sachs, Wells, bioprocessing, Estee Lauder, Gamble, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, CME, Broadcom, Nvidia, Meta, Procter, PCE, Jim Cramer's Charitable
December's inflation data provided just enough evidence to show that the pace of price increases is continuing to cool while also serving up a reminder that the war isn't won yet. One is that regardless of the headline numbers, the parts of inflation that don't fluctuate as much have been fairly stubborn. So-called sticky inflation, which includes things such as housing costs, auto insurance, medical care services and household furnishings, are indeed holding higher. On a one-month annualized basis, the measure also was at 4.6%, but that's up a full percentage point from the previous month. Fed policymakers also are attuned to the relationship between wages and inflation.
Persons: isn't, Disinflation, Jamie Dimon, cautioning, Krishna Guha, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Ian Shepherdson, Dan North Organizations: Separate Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Nomura Global Economics, JPMorgan Chase, Evercore ISI, PPI, Citigroup, Commerce, Fed, Pantheon, Atlanta, Allianz Trade Locations: Red
The small-cap Russell 2000 has dropped close to 4% against a fractional gain in the S & P 500 year to date. In broad terms, the S & P 500 could retreat to 4600 or so – about 4% down from here – and still be in a routine technical check-back to its latest launch point in early December. Todd Sohn of Strategas notes that the Invesco S & P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) saw inflows go vertical last year to $13.5 billion, 30% above its prior 12-month record. Betting on 'peacetime' Fed cuts Right or wrong, the market debate right now can never get far before turning into a Fed-policy-path discussion. Last week's CPI and PPI data added to the market's collective conviction that inflation's downside momentum is strong, opening the way for "peacetime" Fed rate cuts.
Persons: that's, Russell, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, Tony Pasquariello, Goldman Sachs, Henry McVey, KKR's, McVey, Morgan Stanley, Todd Sohn, Strategas, they're, Jerome Powell Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Goldman, Nasdaq, Apple, CPI, PPI Locations: U.S
After spending the past two years trying to get inflation under control by raising interest rates, the Fed is inching toward cutting rates soon. Setting interest rates should be about weighing costs and benefits for everyone, not engineering outcomes for a favored constituency. When people (usually those with a vested political interest) try to accuse the Fed of being biased, it erodes confidence. The real reason for the accusationsThe entire conspiracy theory about a political Fed is weak on its face and baseless on its merits. What makes anyone so sure they'll fare better in 2024 with the rate of inflation slowing, interest rates falling, and stocks rising?
Persons: there's, it's, Joe Biden's, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Biden, It's, Trump, Ro Khanna, Powell, Taylor, Bill Dudley, Dudley, Dudley's, Chris Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Democratic, Trump, Biden, New York Fed Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan
Economists were expecting the annual overall inflation rate to tick higher, to 3.2% from the 3.1% headline reading the month before, according to FactSet consensus estimates. Despite the acceleration, the annual rate of consumer-level inflation is down considerably from December 2022’s rate of 6.5%; additionally, a closely watched measure of underlying inflation slowed further. In December, core goods prices were flat, an apparent stalling out after six months of declines. Rising shelter costs have kept core services elevated. The central bank has a target inflation rate of 2%, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, which has its latest reading due out later this month.
Persons: , ” Wendy Edelberg, ” “, , Brian Coulton, Fitch, ” Scott Anderson, Jerome Powell, Joe Brusuelas, Organizations: New, New York CNN, of Labor Statistics, BLS, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, CNN, Federal, BMO, CPI, PCE, RSM Locations: New York, November’s
CNBC Daily Open: Inflation goal in view
  + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Brown | AFP | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
Persons: Frederic J, Brown, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, , Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, AFP, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: Rosemead , California
CNBC Daily Open: Inflation mission accomplished?
  + stars: | 2023-12-26 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The personal consumption expenditures price index measures how much consumers spend on goods and services. By contrast, the consumer price index tracks the price of goods and services — not actual consumer behavior. For the week, the S&P was up 0.8%, the Dow 0.2% and the Nasdaq 1.2%.
Persons: Justin Sullivan, That's, Andrew Hunter, Russell, bode, Greg Bassuk, , Jeff Cox Organizations: HK, Getty, CNBC, Capital Economics, CPI, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nike, Dow, AXS Investments Locations: San Anselmo , California
A gauge the Federal Reserve uses for inflation rose slightly in November and edged closer to the central bank's goal. On a six-month basis, core PCE increased 1.9%, indicating that if current trends continue the Fed essentially has reached its goal. "The slowing in core inflation opens the door for fed funds rate cuts in 2024; the timing will depend on core PCE numbers over the next few months." Though policymakers watch both measures, they are more concerned with core prices as a longer-run inflation gauge. A 2.7% slide in energy prices and a 0.1% decrease in food helped hold back inflation for the month.
Persons: Dow Jones, Andrew Hunter, Gus Faucher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Capital Economics, Markets, PNC Financial Services, Fed, PCE, Federal, CNBC PRO
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, November 1, 2023. The Federal Reserve dialed back its inflation projections on Wednesday, seeing its favorite gauge falling to 2.4% in 2024. These new forecasts suggest a softer inflation picture in the next two years than that from the last update in September. The Fed had foreseen the core PCE hitting 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025. While the public more closely watches the consumer price index as an inflation measure, the Fed prefers the core PCE reading.
Persons: Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, Fed, Market Committee Locations: Washington
Central bank blunders undermine tough rate talk
  + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Francesco Guerrera | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +8 min
Comments by central bankers underline their desire to keep interest rates high until price growth quiesces. Policymakers’ recent mistakes mean they will struggle to convince investors their tough talk is real. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell says his fellow policymakers are “not thinking about rate cuts at all”. In May, after another U.S. regional bank failure, markets concluded that the Fed’s rate hike at the beginning of that month would be its last. Respected central bankers might be able to convince markets that these numbers don’t portend imminent rate cuts.
Persons: Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Powell, backtrack, , Lagarde, Treasuries, BoE, Bailey, Ben Bernanke, Jacob Frenkel, Peter Thal Larsen, Oliver Taslic, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Traders, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of England, titans, Deutsche Bank, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, LSEG, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, ECB, Bank of Israel, Federal Reserve, European, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Bailey, United States, Ukraine, Central
The price of durable goods is deflating, though many Americans may not feel the impact. AdvertisementEven though inflation is still higher than ideal, many things are actually getting cheaper. The prices of durable goods, meaning long-lasting items such as used cars or appliances, have fallen year-over-year for each of the last five months. That decreased demand has helped push down goods prices. AdvertisementTo be sure, most items Americans are purchasing on the daily are still inflating.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley, durables, HENRYs Organizations: Service, Commerce Department, Street, Federal Reserve, Consumer, Sporting, Services
US economic growth will remain resilient next year, making the Fed cautious about rate cuts, Barclays said. The central bank will likely cut by 100 basis points in 2024 and another 100 points in 2025. AdvertisementUS economy will remain resilient next year, making the Federal Reserve cautious about rate cuts, Barclays said in a Monday note. AdvertisementThat implies the Fed will make four 25-basis-point rate cuts next year. Meanwhile, analysts at ING have predicted the Fed will deliver six rate cuts next year as the economy slows, amounting to 150 basis points.
Persons: , they're Organizations: Barclays, Service, Federal Reserve, ING, UBS, White House, Congress
Historically, November is the best month of the year for the stock market, and December is third, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac. Under the surface this week, we also saw signs of a possible market rotation in the works. Rotation watch : We must look to next week's trading for confirmation that we're in the grips of a rotation or simply a head fake. Signs of the former were on display this week as the two of the biggest sector winners of the year, communication services and technology , trailed the market. Jobs, jobs, jobs : The most important release of the week comes Friday in the form of the November nonfarm payrolls report.
Persons: Jerome Powell, That's, Locker, it's, Hock Tan, We'll, Joann, JOAN, JM Smucker, OLLI, Campbell Soup, Brown, Forman, LULU, Smith, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Wall, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Broadcom, Marvell Technology, Cisco Systems, VMWare, Club, PMI, Labor, Signet Jewelers, SIG, Brands, Toll, Thor Industries, Natural Foods, GameStop, Vail Resorts, MTN, Smith & Wesson, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Asana, ASAN, New York City
Asia shares start Dec on cautious note, oil nurses losses
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.5% after a surge of 7.3% last month, the most since January. The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - stood unchanged for October, while consumer spending also pulled back. Fed funds futures imply rate cuts of 115 basis points. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes slipped 3 basis points in Asia to 4.3264%, on top of a plunge of 52.2 basis points for the month. Two-year Treasury yields fell 4 basis points to 4.674%.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, sharemarkets, HSI, Rodrigo Catril, Jerome Powell's Q, Waller, Robert Carnell, Christopher Waller, Treasuries, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Tyrone, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank . Regional, Federal, Traders, ING, Fed, South Korean, Philippine, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Europe, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, South
Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, , Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S
A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain
Gold set for 3rd weekly gain as cooler data cements Fed cut bets
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices were set to mark a third straight weekly rise on Friday, after data showing cooling inflation cemented bets for a rate cut in the U.S., with traders looking forward to comments from Federal Reserve's Chair Powell later in the day. Spot gold rose 0.2% at $2,039.42 per ounce by 0427 GMT, after marking an over $60 rise in November — its second straight monthly rise. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "However, month-end flow may have also been a factor, and seasonality tends to favor gains for gold between November and December," City Index's Simpson added.
Persons: Powell, Matt Simpson, CME's, Index's Simpson, Hugo Pascal Organizations: Aurum, Traders, U.S Locations: U.S, InProved
Spot gold rose 0.3% at $2,042.58 per ounce by 0621 GMT on Friday, and is up about 2% for the week so far. The metal rose $60 in November in its second straight monthly gain. Data on Thursday showed U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in October, while the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 2-1/2 years. "However, month-end flow may have also been a factor, and seasonality tends to favour gains for gold between November and December," City Index's Simpson added. Spot silver and platinum edged up 0.1% to $25.29 and $927.44 per ounce, respectively, while palladium rose 0.4% to $1,011.65.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Powell, Matt Simpson, CME's, Index's Simpson, Hugo Pascal, Harshit Verma, Nivedita Bhattacharjee, Mrigank Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Traders, U.S, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, Bengaluru
Treasury yields are flat ahead of Powell comments
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The 10-year Treasury yield was last at 4.322% after declining by around 2 basis points. Powell could throw some cold water on that notion, maintaining that the central bank had to remain vigilant against inflation. Investors digested inflation data released Thursday in form of the personal consumption expenditures price index for October, which was in line with expectations. The central bank is set to meet later this month for the last time in 2023. Markets are pricing in an over 98% chance of interest rates being left unchanged then, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Spelman College, Fed
The stock market is boring right now, and that is not a bad thing. There's a strong backdrop going into December. The S & P 500 was up 8.9%, its best month since July 2022, and the fourth-best November since 1950. If it doesn't seem that way, it's because the S & P has been flat for the past week and a half. There will be lots of complaints about high valuations, and the cynics will be right: The S & P is approaching 19-times 2024 earnings.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, let's Organizations: Triple Witching, Treasury, Atlanta, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, BMO Capital Markets, Capital Markets, Bank of America, Barclays, Goldman, UBS Global Wealth, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, JPMorgan, Dow, Revenue Locations: Wells Fargo
Traders' confidence was reinforced earlier this week when Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish policymaker, flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead. SOFR FUTURESBond investors also look to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures to gauge expectations of Fed rate moves. The June 2024 SOFR futures have priced at least one Fed cut, while the probability of two 25-basis-point rate reductions was at 76%. An OIS transaction involves exchanging an overnight rate such as the federal funds rate for a fixed one. For instance, in a U.S. two-year OIS transaction, one party receives a fixed two-year rate in exchange for paying the fed funds rate daily over the next two years.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, It's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Alden Bentley, Paul Simao Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Dakota Wealth Management, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Atlanta
Gold holds ground ahead of US inflation test
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Harshit Verma | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
An employee casts ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold at the Novosibirsk precious metals refining and manufacturing plant in the Siberian city of Novosibirsk, Russia, September 15, 2023. Spot gold was flat at $2,044.30 per ounce by 0728 GMT, trading in a range of about $6. It hit its highest since May 5 on Wednesday, and was poised for its second straight monthly gain. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.1% to $2,045.40 per ounce. Reporting by Harshit Verma in Bengaluru; Editing by Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Dhaniwala and Sonia CheemaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Yeap Jun Rong, Jerome Powell, Harshit Verma, Rashmi Aich, Mrigank Dhaniwala, Sonia Cheema Organizations: REUTERS, PCE, U.S, Fed, Traders, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, Bengaluru
All eyes are now on the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index- the Fed's preferred inflation gauge- for October, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show inflation eased in the previous month. The PCE index is expected to rise 0.1% on a monthly basis in October, moderating from a 0.4% increase in September. Data cloud company Snowflake (SNOW.N) added 8.2% after it forecast fourth-quarter product revenue above Street estimates on artificial intelligence driven demand. Reporting by Shristi Achar A and Amruta Khandekar in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini GanguliOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Russ Mould, AJ Bell, Jefferies, Shristi Achar, Shinjini Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Federal Reserve, Dow e, Ford Motor, Inc, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Chicago, Bengaluru
Dollar drifts near three-month low, focus on inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The index is down 3.7% in November on growing expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. The dollar clawed back some of its losses on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. economy grew faster in the third quarter than initially reported. "Markets will continue to play to focus on what FOMC officials say about the prospect of the upcoming rate-hike cycle." Two of the best-performers are at the polar opposite ends of the "carry" spectrum — the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen . On Thursday, yen strengthened 0.09% to 147.11 per dollar, remaining close to two and half month high of 146.675 per dollar it touched on Wednesday.
Persons: Carol Kong, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Goldman Sachs, Sterling Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S
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