Top related persons:
Top related locs:
Top related orgs:

Search resuls for: "National Bureau of"


25 mentions found


BEIJING, July 31 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity fell for a fourth straight month in July while the services and construction sectors teetered on the brink of contraction, official surveys showed on Monday, threatening growth prospects for the third quarter. Construction sector activity for July was its weakest since COVID-19-related workplace disruptions dissipated around February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed. The non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indexes for service sector activity and construction, dropped to 51.5 from June's 53.2. "Meanwhile, we're seeing improvements in inventory levels, suggesting that with destocking nearing its end, China's manufacturing sector bottomed out in the second quarter," he added. "Unless concrete support is rolled out soon, the recent downturn in demand risks becoming self-reinforcing."
Persons: Xu Tianchen, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes, Edmund Klamann Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Communist Party, PMI, Economist Intelligence Unit, destocking, China, State, Capital Economics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
Hong Kong CNN —China is preparing to announce new stimulus for its stumbling economy after the vast factory sector contracted for a fourth straight month, and a gauge of activity in its services sector slipped to a seven month low. The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which measures activity level in the manufacturing sector, came in at 49.3 in July, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. That result was slightly up compared with 49 in June but the index has nonetheless contracted each month since April. The official non-manufacturing PMI, which looks at activities in the services and construction industries, fell to 51.5 from 53.2 in June. “China’s official PMI data provides little encouragement that the economy is turning the corner,” said Robert Carnell, regional head of research for Asia-Pacific at ING Group.
Persons: Stringer, , , Robert Carnell, Xi Jinping, Carnell Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau, Statistics, PMI, Getty, ING Group, National Development, Reform Commission, Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, State, Information, Ministry of Commerce, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, China, Beijing, Hangzhou, China's, Zhejiang, AFP, Asia, Pacific
(Photo by He Shaoping/VCG via Getty Images)Asia-Pacific markets rose on Monday as China's factory activity for July remained in contraction territory for the fourth straight month. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at 49.3, higher than June's figure of 49.0, according to the national bureau of statistics. The PMI for non-manufacturing activity came in at 51.5, a slower rate of expansion compared to the 53.2 in June. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged over 1.71%, while the Hang Seng Tech index saw a larger climb of 4.84%. The country's industrial output for June came in lower than expected, registering a 2% growth month on month compared to the 2.4% expected by economists.
Persons: Hong, HSI, Australia's Organizations: Getty Images, PMI, Hang Seng, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Nikkei, Reserve Bank, Reuters Locations: SHENZHEN, CHINA, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province of China, Asia, Pacific
The sunset glow is seen over buildings and a ferris wheel on May 13, 2022 in Beijing, China. China's factory activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in July, while non-manufacturing activity slowed to its weakest this year as the world's second-largest economy struggles to revive growth momentum in the wake of soft global demand. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index came in at 49.3 in July — compared with 49.0 in June, 48.8 in May and 49.2 in April — according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday. Monday's figures also showed China posting its weakest official non-manufacturing PMI reading this year, coming in at 51.5 in July — compared with 53.2 in June, 54.5 in May and 56.4 in April. A PMI reading above 50 points to an expansion in activity, while a reading below that level suggests a contraction.
Persons: Zhao Qinghe Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, PMI, NBS Locations: Beijing, China
BEIJING, July 27 (Reuters) - China's industrial profits extended this year's double-digit pace of declines into a sixth month as waning demand took a toll on companies' profit margins, bolstering the case for more supportive policy to help the economy. In June alone, industrial earnings shrank by 8.3% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday. Profits dived for 29 of 41 major industrial sectors during the period, with the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry reporting the deepest slump at 97.6%. "Looking ahead, there's a big chance of China's industrial profits logging positive growth in 2024, said Zheng Houcheng, chief macro economist at Yingda Securities Co, attributing the turnaround in part to expectations for ramped-up stimulus. Industrial profit numbers cover firms with annual revenues of at least 20 million yuan ($2.79 million) from their main operations.
Persons: Sun Xiao, there's, Zheng Houcheng, Ethan Wang, Qiaoyi Li, Ryan Woo, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters Graphics, NBS, Yingda Securities, ramped, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING
The U.S. economy showed few signs of recession in the second quarter, as gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-expected pace during the period, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Growth hasn't posted a negative reading since the second quarter of 2022, when GDP fell at a 0.6% rate. That was the second straight quarter of negative growth, meeting the technical definition of a recession. Following the Wednesday rate increase, the Fed characterized growth as "moderate," a slight boost from the characterization of "modest" in June. That phenomenon, called an inverted yield curve, has a near-perfect record for indicating a recession in the next 12 months.
Persons: Dow Jones, Steve Rick, Jerome Powell Organizations: Dow, Commerce Department, Consumer, Federal, National Bureau of Economic Research, of Michigan, Fed, Treasury, New Locations: Dow Jones, U.S, New York
The Earned Income Tax Credit reduced the likelihood of being in poverty, new research shows. Children exposed to the EITC at early ages were less likely to receive public assistance, such as WIC, as adults. It shows how policies that help keep children out of poverty can have benefits for decades after. How the tax credit can be restructured to assist those who need the benefits the most, though, is murky. These findings suggest, though, that the tax credit improves economic outcomes of both the EITC recipients and their children, as the authors found evidence that these effects drive up income mobility.
Persons: Katherine Michelmore, University of Michigan's Gerald R, Michelmore, Nicardo McInnis Organizations: IRS, Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Michigan's, Ford School of Public Policy, Dynamics, California State University Locations: Wall, Silicon, Northridge
China's youth unemployment rate may be severely skewed, a Peking University professor wrote. While official statistics for March cited a 19.7% rate, Zhang Dandan estimated it's closer to 46.5%. According to Zhang Dandan, whose findings were recently published in the financial magazine Caixin, March's youth unemployment rate could have been as much as 46.5% when accounting for 16 million non-students not actively seeking work, Reuters reported. This is more than double that month's official 19.7% rate, as published by the National Bureau of Statistics. To be sure, the US Labor Department's unemployment rate doesn't include Americans who have stopped looking for work.
Persons: Zhang Dandan, COVID Organizations: Peking University, Service, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, US Labor Locations: Wall, Silicon
Construction on a real estate project in Yantai, Shandong province, gets under way on July 8, 2023. Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty ImagesBEIJING — China is changing its tone on the struggling real estate sector, paving the way for policy support. The statement reflects a "much clearer understanding about the seriousness of the situation," said Qin Gang, executive director of China real estate research institute ICR. He expects policies beneficial to the real estate market and consumption will come out in coming days. So far, the biggest real estate policy change has been this month's extension of measures to support developers, which were first revealed in November.
Persons: Larry Hu, Hu, Qin Gang, Ricky Tsang, China's, Tsang, It's, Zong Liang, Zong, Tommy Wu, Wu Organizations: Nurphoto, Getty, CNBC, Macquarie, People's Bank of China, Qin, Seng Property Development, National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of China Locations: Yantai, Shandong province, BEIJING, China
LAUNCESTON, Australia, July 26 (Reuters) - China boosted its stockpiling of crude oil to the highest level in three years in June, taking advantage of cheap Russian crude to bolster inventories and add flexibility to future import requirements. The volume of crude available to refiners was 16.93 million bpd, consisting of imports of 12.67 million bpd and domestic output of 4.26 million bpd. This would have the impact of lowering their import bills, but also of cutting global oil demand and putting some downward pressure on oil prices. What is becoming clearer is that the amount of heavily discounted crude China can buy is reaching a maximum. In addition to discounted Russian oil, China also buys crude from Iran, although this is largely disguised as imports from other nations in official data.
Persons: China doesn't, Jamie Freed Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, International Energy Agency, Brent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: LAUNCESTON, Australia, China, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Ukraine
BEIJING, July 25 (Reuters) - Several Chinese steel mills have received instructions to cap this year's output at the same level as 2022, five people familiar with the matter and analyst reports said on Tuesday, potentially curbing iron ore demand in the world's top steel market. China has mandated zero output growth in its steel sector for the last two years as it seeks to limit carbon emissions by one of its most polluting industries. China's state planner did not respond to a fax seeking comment on the caps issued at some steel mills. Some mills in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin were notified to keep steel output below the 2022 level, according to reports by local consultancies Mysteel and Fubao on Tuesday, which did not specify the number of mills. However, a dozen mills in northern Chinese cities including Tianjin and Handan contacted by Reuters said they had not yet received any instructions to cap their output.
Persons: Dominique Patton, Chizu Organizations: China Baowu Steel Group, Shanghai Metals, Reuters, Shanghai Futures Exchange, National Bureau, Statistics, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin, Fubao, Shanghai, Handan, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNBER Chair John Lipsky: There's good reason to believe inflation will moderate without Fed actionJohn Lipsky, National Bureau of Economic Research chair, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss Lipsky's inflation optimism, what prices will begin to fall with the higher cost of capital, and more.
Persons: John Lipsky Organizations: National Bureau of Economic Research
Income inequality has narrowed in the US, with low-wage workers receiving raises during the pandemic. This trend has been tapering off, though labor market competition has benefited wage growth. This was thanks to pre-pandemic minimum wage legislation, coupled with higher raises for lower wage workers in the tumultuous years that followed. Although low-wage workers have slightly narrowed the gap, corporate profits have boomed, allowing those at the very top to stay separated from the rest. In June 2022, low-wage workers saw 7.2% wage growth from the prior year, falling to 6.5% in June 2023.
Persons: It's, David Autor, Ford, Autor, Harry Holzer, John LaFarge Jr, SJ, Georgetown University's, Holzer, Biden, " Holzer Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank, Dallas, MIT Department of Economics, American Bar Association, Public, Georgetown, Georgetown University's McCourt School of Public, Federal Reserve Bank of, Economic Policy Institute Locations: Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
ReutersBEIJING – International investment firms have changed their China GDP forecasts nearly every month so far this year, with JPMorgan making six adjustments since January. Here are some winners to watch The U.S. investment bank most recently cut its China GDP forecast in July to 5%, down from 5.5% previously. In June, the World Bank raised its forecast for China's growth this year to 5.6%, up from 4.3% previously. The International Monetary Fund in April raised its forecast for China's GDP to 5.2%, up from 4.4% previously. Among the six investment firms CNBC looked at, the highest China GDP forecast so far this year was JPMorgan's 6.4% figure — when the bank adjusted for the second time in April alone.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Nomura, Goldman Sachs, Logan Wright, Shehzad Qazi, Qazi Organizations: Reuters, Reuters BEIJING – International, JPMorgan, CNBC, Citi, Beijing, Citi's, UBS, National Bureau, Statistics, U.S, Chinese Communist Party . Investment, Bank, International Monetary Fund, Monetary Fund Locations: Lianyungang, Jiangsu province, China, Reuters BEIJING, U.S, Beijing, New York
China's youth unemployment problem is the root of its economic woes, according to economist Nancy Qian. That's largely due to a shortage of high-skill, high-paying jobs, which will weigh on its economy. That's largely been driven by the lack of high-skill and high-paying jobs in China's employment market, which have left many college graduates unable to find work. Meanwhile, China's economy has been slowing, with the nation seeing a disappointing economic revival since dialing back its zero-COVID policies at the start of this year. But current patterns raise profound concerns for China's economic outlook, especially considering that the government's policies for addressing them have not worked," Qian said.
Persons: Nancy Qian, That's, Qian, It's, that's Organizations: Service, Northwestern University, Project Syndicate, National Bureau of Statistics, Monetary Fund Locations: Wall, Silicon, China
A new study links anonymous posts on "4chan for economists" to IP addresses at Harvard, Yale, and other top schools. Other snippets of posts with IP addresses at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, University of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research headquarters include: "Rapefugees Welcome!!!!! Other snippets of posts with IP addresses at Harvard, Stanford, Yale, University of Chicago, and the National Bureau of Economic Research headquarters include: "Rapefugees Welcome!!!!! Notre Dame IP addresses made up 3.4% of posts from a research-institution IP address. According to Ederer, it took just 15 minutes to figure out how to connect usernames with IP addresses.
Persons: Anya Samek, Samek, EJMR, Boston University's Florian Ederer, Yale's Paul Goldsmith, Pinkham, Kyle Jensen, Ederer, Christina Romer, Scott Cunningham, Rob Seamans, Merkel, bubba, Trevon Logan, that's, She's Organizations: Harvard, Yale, North American Economic Science Association Conference, University of Chicago, undergrad, National Bureau of Economic Research, American Economics Association, Baylor, Marvel, Stanford, University of Notre Dame, Columbia, Notre Dame, Ohio State University, UMass Amherst, University of California Locations: Tucson , Arizona, Cambridge , Massachusetts, Ederer, Erdogan's Turkey, troon, Samek, San Diego
It's why top researchers are looking to the past as a guide to predict how generative AI could affect workers' jobs in the years and decades to come. "It's possible that in the end, we get better jobs, but in the short term, there's a lot of disruption," Mollick said. But Raymond warned that AI could produce some less-desirable outcomes for customer-service workers, particularly if customer-support chatbots become much more capable and advanced. The extent to which AI displaces jobs will depend on how quickly it scales what Mollick calls the "three levels" of work: tasks, jobs, and systems. Instead, what I would be thinking about is: How do you figure out how to use it to do your job better?"
Persons: Ethan Mollick, Mollick, Carl Benedikt Frey —, Frey, Lindsey Raymond —, , Raymond, that's, chatbots, Oded, There's Organizations: Service, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, MIT Sloan School of Management, White, National Bureau of Economic Research Locations: Wall, Silicon, Oxford, COVID, Columbia
2 oil consumer, while Libya resumed production on the weekend. "The GDP came in below expectations, so will do little to ease concerns over the Chinese economy," said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities research. "Apparent oil demand grew at a strong pace year on year, but the market seems focused on the headline (GDP) numbers," Patterson said. "They are stockpiling crude at low prices, and waiting for recession to hit the West before going full on with stimulus," Grasso said. Reporting by Florence Tan and Mohi Narayan; Editing by Tom Hogue and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: China's, Warren Patterson, ING's, Patterson, Stefano Grasso, Grasso, El, Vandana Hari, Hari, Florence Tan, Mohi Narayan, Tom Hogue, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, National Bureau, Statistics, Shell, Vanda Insights, Thomson Locations: China, Libya, U.S, Beijing, 8VantEdge, Singapore, Nigerian, Russia, Moscow, Saudi Arabia
On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was well below the forecast for growth of 7.3%. "The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. The latest data raises the risk of China missing its modest 5% growth target for 2023, some economists say. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. So I think this does raise greater urgency for more policy support soon."
Persons: Carol Kong, Alvin Tan, Harry Murphy Cruise, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Analysts, Authorities, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, stoke, Moody’s, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Sydney, China, Asia, Singapore
2 oil consumer as Libya resumed production over the weekend. "The GDP came in below expectations, so will do little to ease concerns over the Chinese economy," said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities research. "Apparent oil demand grew at a strong pace year on year, but the market seems focused on the headline (GDP) numbers," Patterson said. "They are stockpiling crude at low prices, and waiting for recession to hit the West, before going full on with stimulus," Grasso said. In Russia, oil exports from western ports are set to fall by some 100,000-200,000 bpd next month from July, a sign Moscow is making good on a pledge for fresh supply cuts in tandem with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, two sources said on Friday.
Persons: Warren Patterson, ING's, Patterson, Stefano Grasso, Grasso, El, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul, Tom Hogue Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, National Bureau, Statistics, Shell, Thomson Locations: China, SINGAPORE, Libya, U.S, Beijing, 8VantEdge, Singapore, Nigerian, Russia, Moscow, Saudi Arabia
"Consumers are not spending, mainly driven by the bleak outlook for the property market. Disappointing retail numbers and property market sales show it doesn't seem that the boost from rate cuts is sufficient. ..the property market is beginning another slowdown - the government will have to come up with more stimulus for property." "Nonetheless, we think more stimulus is required to stabilise and restore confidence in the property market." ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG"Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016.
Persons: CHRISTOPHER WONG, LOUIS KUIJS, CAROL KONG, XING ZHAOPENG, KEN CHEUNG, ALVIN TAN, VISHNU VARATHAN, MARCO SUN, CHEN, TONY SYCAMORE, ZHIWEI ZHANG, JING LIU Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Shanghai, NBS, BANK OF, ANZ, MIZUHO BANK, OF, OF ASIA FX, RBC, MUFG BANK, IG, SYDNEY, Friday's, BANK OF SINGAPORE, HSBC, stoke, Authorities, Reuters, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, SINGAPORE, ASIA, HONG KONG, SYDNEY, CHINA, SHANGHAI, OF ASIA, China
Property sales by floor area declined 28.1% year-on-year, extending a 19.7% fall in May, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). For June, property investment totaled to 1.2849 trillion yuan, falling 20.6% from a year earlier after a 21.5% drop in May, according to Reuters calculations. For January-June, property sales by floor area were down 5.3% year-on-year compared with a 0.9% fall in the first five months. Property investment fell 7.9% in the first six months, after slumping 7.2% in January-May from the same period a year earlier. New construction starts measured by floor area fell 24.3% year-on-year, after a 22.6% drop in the first five months.
Persons: Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Authorities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING
"The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. Most analysts say policymakers are likely to dole out modest supportive measures, instead of embracing any aggressive stimulus due to limited room and worries of growing debt risks, analysts said. For June alone, China's retail sales grew 3.1%, slowing sharply from a 12.7% jump in May, the data showed. Industrial output growth unexpectedly quickened to 4.4% last month from 3.5% seen in May, but demand remains lukewarm amid a bumpy post-COVID economic recovery.
Persons: Carol Kong, Alvin Tan, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Authorities, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, stoke, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Sydney, China, Asia, Singapore
China's June industrial output rises 4.4%, retail sales up 3.1%
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
BEIJING, July 17 (Reuters) - China's industrial output grew 4.4% in June from a year earlier, unexpectedly accelerating from 3.5% seen in May, but demand remains lukewarm amid a bumpy post-COVID economic recovery. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday came above expectations for a 2.7% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts. Retail sales grew 3.1% in June, slowing from a 12.7% jump in May. Fixed asset investment expanded 3.8% in the first six months of 2023 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.5% rise. Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Joe Cash, Ella Cao, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BEIJING
BEIJING — China said Monday that second-quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations. The unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. The 6.3% GDP print for the second quarter marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 7.3% increase in the second quarter GDP. When asked about the outlook for the second half, spokesperson Fu said he expected real estate investment would remain low for the near future.
Persons: Fu Linghui, Fu Organizations: Railway, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Information, Investment Locations: Guangzhou, BEIJING — China, China, Beijing
Total: 25