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The central bank also doesn’t have any incentive to restrict the economy through elevated interest rates if inflation is already under control. The US central bank has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022 to their highest level in 22 years. The US Commerce Department reports new home sales in September. The US Commerce Department reports third-quarter gross domestic product along with September figures on new durable-goods orders. The US Labor Department reports the number of new applications for jobless benefits in the week ended October 21.
Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Gregory Daco, ” Diane Swonk, Donald Trump, Colin Kaepernick’s, Bud Light’s, Elliott Gotkine, , Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, , Satya Nadella, ” Sundar Pichai, ​ ​, Sherwin, Williams, Clark, General, Hess, Rowe Price Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, The Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, KPMG, BlackRock, America, Nike, Yale School of Management, Microsoft, ” Disney, Sonnenfeld, Tottenham Hotspur, Whirlpool, Verizon, General Electric, Barclays, 3M, General Motors, Spotify, Quest Diagnostics, Mobile, Boeing, General Dynamics, Old Dominion, Hilton, Meta, IBM, US Commerce Department, Mastercard, Merck, Comcast, UPS, Myers Squibb, Northrop Grumman, Valero, The Hershey Company, Amazon, Intel, European Central Bank, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Colgate, Palmolive, Phillips, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, EY, Israel, United States, United Kingdom, London, Gaza, Kimberly, Haliburton, Old, Bristol, AbbVie
Despite high prices and mortgage rates, they said homeownership will pay off for many people in the long-run. Many Americans have been left wondering when — if ever — the time will be right for them to enter the housing market. "Many homeowners first bought their home when interest rates were high — the 50-year average rate on a mortgage is 7.8%," he said. Even if cuts to interest rates cause mortgage rates to fall, they're unlikely to return to the near-zero levels they were in 2022. If and when mortgage rates fall, Yun said that some homeowners who have been eager to move — but have been reluctant to give up their low interest rates — will likely decide to sell.
Persons: homeownership, , Andy Walden, homebuyers, Jerome Powell, Alex Wong, Daryl Fairweather, Redfin's, Lawrence Yun, Yun, Selma Hepp, Connolly, Mott aren’t, David Meyer, Redfin's Fairweather, Fairweather, There's, there's, Jenna Stauffer, Hepp, Meyer Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, ICE Mortgage Technology, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Reserve, CoreLogic, Brigade, Homeowners, International Realty Locations: Washington , DC
Housing’s Other Threat to the Economy
  + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Justin Lahart | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +1 min
The limited number of existing homes has prompted some shoppers to purchase new ones. That shouldn’t mask the fact that what is happening in the housing market is utterly and horribly bad and that the economy is worse off for it. This past Thursday, the National Association of Realtors said that 3.96 million previously owned, or existing, homes were sold in September at a seasonally adjusted, annual rate. That was down from 4.68 million a year earlier, and even lower than the levels plumbed right after the pandemic hit. The report showed that there were just 1.13 million homes on the market last month, which is the fewest for a September on record.
Persons: MIKE BLAKE Organizations: Commerce, National Association of Realtors
Why now is actually a good time to buy a house
  + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +5 min
And yet, there's an argument to be made for getting in now if you can find something, even amid 20-year high mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices. Mortgage rates at 8% have sidelined a good portion of the competition. High mortgage rates are the new normalThat message doesn't appear to be getting through to prospective homebuyers, who have made themselves scarce as mortgage rates have continued their steady rise in 2023. AdvertisementAdvertisementFairweather sees mortgage rates staying where they are until the Fed begins to cut rates in mid-2024. That could cause mortgage rates to ease around 100 basis-points next year, dropping as low as 7%.
Persons: , Barbara Corcoran, don't, Lawrence Yun, Daryl Fairweather, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Corcoran, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve
watch nowToday's housing market is a toxic mix of high mortgage rates, high prices, tight supply and strangely strong pent-up demand — and it's scaring off buyers and sellers alike. Now the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate is at 8%, the highest in decades, making things even tougher. The result was record-low mortgage rates for two solid years. That, ironically, made the housing market even more expensive. They have little desire to trade the 3% rate they currently have for an 8% mortgage rate on a new purchase.
Persons: Matthew Graham, MND's Graham, He's, Lisa Resch, What's, Lawrence Yun, Yun Organizations: Mortgage News, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Compass, Washington , D.C, NAR, Buyers Locations: Washington ,, Florida, Tampa, Jacksonville, Orlando, Houston , Texas, Memphis , Tennessee, homebuilders, Horton
It’s no longer “higher for longer,” said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, it’s just “high for long.”What’s happening: 10-year Treasury yields are flirting with 5% for the first time since 2007, before the global financial crisis. It also means more expensive mortgage rates. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on 10-year US Treasuries. When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Fed officials, including Powell, have indicated that rates could be high enough to help lower inflation towards their target goal of 2%.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, Rob Almeida, Powell, they’re, Jerome Powell, Paul McCartney, Darrell Cronk, Anna Bahney, , ” Lawrence Yun, Snapchat isn’t, Snapchat, Clare Duffy, Evan Spiegel Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Interactive, MFS Investment Management, US Treasury, Treasury, Economic, of New, Financial, , National Association of Realtors, NAR, Twitter Locations: New York, Ukraine, of New York, Wells Fargo, Northeast, Midwest, South, homeownership
Home prices could drop as much as 5% next year if mortgage rates stay at this level, Morgan Stanley said. AdvertisementAdvertisementBuyers sidelined from the housing market could find some relief in 2024, as home prices could drop next year if mortgage rates stay close to their current levels, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank's strategists pointed to the recent surge in mortgage rates, with the average 30-year fixed rate climbing to 8% this week. Rising mortgage rates sidelined a good deal of buyers and sellers from the housing market through 2022 and 2023. "Longer term, if mortgage rates were to stay close to 8%, the headwinds this would represent for demand could prove to have a more negative impact on home prices," Morgan Stanley said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Morgan Stanley's, That's Organizations: Service, Treasury, National Association of Realtors
The housing market is facing a combination of elevated mortgage rates and high prices. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty ImagesThursday’s home sales report will show how the housing market is responding to soaring mortgage rates. Home sales have trended sharply lower as mortgage rates rose to the highest level since 2000. The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release the September existing-home sales report at 10 a.m. Eastern time Thursday. High rates are also limiting the inventory of homes on the market because homeowners with low rates are unwilling to sell and move.
Persons: Brandon Bell, Freddie Mac, WSJ's Jeffrey Sparshott Organizations: Wall, National Association of Realtors, Time
US weekly jobless claims hit nine-month low
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
Though the labor market is gradually cooling, conditions remain tight, with claims at the very low end of their range of 194,000 to 265,000 for this year. The Fed's Beige Book report on Wednesday said "labor market tightness continued to ease across the nation" in early October and implied cooling wage pressure. The labor market is driving consumer spending and the overall economy, ultimately keeping inflation elevated. The claims report covered the week during which the government surveyed business establishments for the nonfarm payrolls component of October's employment report. The so-called continuing claims increased 29,000 to a still-low 1.734 million during the week ending Oct. 7, the claims report showed.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, Jerome Powell's, Jay Hawkins, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Financial, Treasury, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, U.S, Economic, of New, National Association of Realtors, realtors, BMO Capital Markets, Philadelphia Fed, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Texas , New York , New Jersey, Georgia, California, Tennessee, Michigan, of New York, Toronto, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware
Sales rose in the Northeast but fell elsewhere, although sales were down year to year throughout the country. Sales are now running at an annual rate of 3.96 million, down 15.4% from 4.68 million a year ago. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales rose by 0.7%, more than twice what had been expected, as consumers flocked to eating and dining establishments and shopped more online. Among middle-income households, 25% plan to spend more, while 16% of low-income households will increase holiday spending. “Despite a lot of the negativity you see everywhere, consumers seem pretty resilient,” Rose says.
Persons: , Lawrence Yun, LEI, Justyna, Monica, TransUnion, Mark Rose, ” Rose Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal, Conference, The Conference Board, , The, Board, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Census Bureau, Labor Department
The median price for existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — was $394,300 last month. That was up 2.8% from a year ago and marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year price increases, setting a record high price for homes in September. Low inventory and high prices contributed to sales of existing homes dropping 2% from August to September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million units, just above analysts’ expectations. More than 90% of homeowners with a mortgage have rates at 6% or lower, according to ICE Mortgage Technology, which recently acquired mortgage data provider Black Knight. Part of this, of course, is because buyers with the means are working to avoid high mortgage rates by purchasing in cash.
Persons: , ” Lawrence Yun, , Yun Organizations: DC CNN —, National Association of Realtors, NAR, Federal, , ICE Mortgage Technology, Black, Homeowners Locations: Washington, Northeast, Midwest, South, homeownership
This is the slowest sales pace since October 2010, during the Great Recession, when the market was in the midst of a foreclosure crisis. As a comparison, just two years ago, when mortgage rates hovered around 3%, home sales were running at a 6.6 million pace. Adding to higher mortgage rates, the median price of a home sold in September was $394,300, up 2.8% year over year. That's because there is more supply at the higher price points and because higher-end buyers can often use cash. Mortgage demand is now at the lowest level since 1995, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Persons: Lawrence Yun, Danielle Hale Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Mortgage News, Federal, Mortgage, Association
US existing home sales drop to 13-year low in September
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Sarah Silbiger/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Oct 19 (Reuters) - U.S. existing home sales dropped to a 13-year low in September as surging mortgage rates and tight supply combined to reduce affordability for many first-time buyers. Existing home sales fell 2.0% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million units, the lowest level since October 2010, the National Association of Realtors said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast home sales slipping to a rate of 3.89 million units. "Higher mortgage rates are really hampering activity." At September's sales pace, it would take 3.4 months to exhaust the current inventory of existing homes, up from 3.2 months a year ago.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Lawrence Yun, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, National Association of Realtors, Reuters, Mortgage, Association, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Midwest, West, U.S
“Clearly, the story of limited inventory and rising and rising mortgage rates continues to hinder the home sales market,” said Lawrence Yun, the NAR’s chief economist. Political Cartoons View All 1211 ImagesYun also said he expects mortgage rates will ease by next spring. Mortgage rates have been climbing along with the 10-year Treasury yield, which lenders use as a guide to pricing loans. That amounts to just a 3.4-month supply, going by the current sales pace. The combination of higher mortgage rates and rising prices has particularly hurt first-time homebuyers who don't have any home equity to put toward their down payment.
Persons: That’s, , , Lawrence Yun, Yun, Freddie Mac Organizations: ANGELES, National Association of Realtors, Sales, Treasury, U.S, Homes, NAR Locations: U.S
The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly index of mortgage application activity fell 6.9% in the week ended Oct. 13 to 166.9, the lowest since May 1995. Applications for loans to buy a home fell 5.6% to the lowest since February 1995 and applications to refinance an existing mortgage tumbled 9.9% to the lowest since January. Residential borrowing costs have risen roughly by half a percentage point since the beginning of September. Barring an about-face in the bond market that brings yields lower, borrowing costs look unlikely to pull back in the near term. In addition to high borrowing costs, sales are being restrained by very low inventory of homes on the market.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, they've, Dan Burns, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Mortgage Bankers, Federal Reserve, National Association of Realtors, Reuters, ARM, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S
Rates on the 30-year fixed mortgage hit 8% on Wednesday, per Mortgage News Daily. It's the first time the interest rate on the most popular US home loan hit that mark since mid-2000. AdvertisementAdvertisementFor the first time since 2000, the rate on the typical 30-year fixed mortgage hit 8% on Wednesday, according to Mortgage News Daily. Mortgage rates are a critical input for the affordability equation for prospective home buyers, and in previous eras of rising rates, home prices have declined as borrowing costs increase. The rise in rates has sent mortgage applications tumbling to their lowest level in almost three decades, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
Persons: Bond, Organizations: Mortgage, Service, Mortgage News, Treasury, Association, National Association of Realtors
The report reflects the uneasy state of new construction, with builders facing the strain of high mortgage rates and increased costs for building materials. “To keep buyers interested, many builders have been offering upgrades or buying down mortgage rates, but rising home prices coupled with mortgage rates approaching 8% means there will be fewer buyers in the market to entice,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said. It is the week’s second report on the state of the new housing market. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index revealed that builder confidence fell for the third consecutive month in October. "Today’s September housing starts report reflects the fragility of the real estate market,” said Travis Hodges, managing director at insurance broker VIU by HUB.
Persons: , , Lisa Sturtevant, Alicia Huey, Travis Hodges Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, MLS, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Realtors Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, Florida, California
Buyers and sellers alike complain of a market that only gets worse the longer they wait. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAdvertisementThe slowed-down market could have impacts across the economy, forcing some potential buyers to continue renting and influencing some potential sellers to stay put. The bank remained hopeful for a turnaround but warned of more turbulence for buyers and sellers brave enough to face the market. AdvertisementAdvertisementSellers are also forced to wait and for decreasing offersMeanwhile, sellers are left waiting as well.
Persons: , Chen Zhao, Redfin, Lawrence Talej, Yonatan Hochstein, they've, We've, Desiree Edgington, She's, Edgington, Zoe Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Wall Street, National Association of Realtors, Bank of America Locations: Richmond , Virginia, New Jersey, Kansas, zrosenberg@insider.com
Adjustable-rate mortgages are making a comeback
  + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
Meanwhile, the average rate for a kind of adjustable rate mortgage — a 5/1 ARM — dropped to 6.33% from 6.49%. (Freddie Mac, which provides an average that CNN covers weekly, does not track interest rates for adjustable rate mortgages). When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Fixed rate vs ARMWhile the overwhelming share of loans are still fixed-rate mortgages, ARMs are becoming more attractive in the current higher-rate environment. Generally, homeowners with higher mortgage rates will pay more in interest rather than principal for a longer time than those with lower interest rates.
Persons: , Freddie Mac, , Bob Broeksmit, Melissa Cohn, Cohn, National Association of Home Builders —, ” Cohn, Kaylin Dillon, Jay Zigmont, ’ ” Zigmont, you’re Organizations: DC CNN, Mortgage, Association, CNN, , ARM, Fed, Federal Reserve, William, Treasury, Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors, National Association of Home Builders, Childfree Locations: Washington, Israel, Kansas, Mississippi
With two wars, a rising price of oil and a shaky bond market, there is plenty of worry for the markets and economists this week, including a slew of corporate earnings reports and data on the state of the housing market and retail spending. Meanwhile, Russia has been pressing its invasion of Ukraine that is now a year and a half old. Last week ended with a surprise increase in consumer’s expectations of inflation in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. Where new home construction a few months ago was holding up the housing market, now it has slumped amid mortgage rates that have brushed 8%. The firm published its monthly economic outlook last week and did not include any more Fed rate hikes in the current cycle.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Sam Bullard Organizations: Hamas, University of, , BCA Research, , National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Association of Realtors, Economic, of New, Wells Locations: East, Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, of New York
Housing is even more unaffordable now than ahead of the 2008 crash, according to Goldman Sachs. But the bank expects limited supply and borrowers being "locked in" at lower mortgage rates to drive prices even higher. "We continue to expect home prices to rise at a slow pace," strategists said in a research note. AdvertisementAdvertisementDon't expect US house prices to slip anytime soon despite record-high unaffordability levels, according to Goldman Sachs. AdvertisementAdvertisementGoldman Sachs noted that one benefit of the current tightness in the housing market is that there won't be a repeat of 2008, when home prices fell around 20% from their peak in the wake of the financial crisis.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, , Goldman's, Lofti Karoui, that's, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Biden Administration, Federal Reserve
MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley YTD We certainly hope Morgan Stanley's numbers are as good as Friday's report from our other bank holding Wells Fargo (WFC). Morgan Stanley is expected to grow revenue by more than 2% year over year to $13.2 billion in the third quarter. During a recent conference, Morgan Stanley executives said that capital markets will likely improve in 2024. Shares of Morgan Stanley have struggled this year, dropping more than 8% compared to the S & P 500's nearly 13% advance in 2023. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Stocks, WTI, Jerome Powell's, There's, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Harker, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, Powell, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Waller, Jefferson, – Morgan Stanley, Gamble –, Morgan Stanley YTD, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, there's, Gamble, Jim, we'll, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Philip Morris, — CNBC's Zev Fima, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Columbus Day, West Texas, Federal Reserve, Club, Fed, Market, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, National Association of Realtors, Procter, Procter & Gamble, Natural Resources, Exxon Mobil, Coterra Energy, of America, United Airlines, Gamble, Housing, Netflix, Alcoa, American Airlines, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Alaska Air, CSX, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Israel, U.S, New, Wells, KBW, Silicon, Manhattan, New York City
US housing affordability has sharply eroded over the last several years. Moody's strategists broke down the repercussions of unaffordability and illustrated it in the chart below. In the last decade, Moody's said, Florida, Idaho, and Nevada saw the steepest declines in affordability, largely fueled by an influx of new residents and housing demand. AdvertisementAdvertisementMeanwhile, extreme weather events, construction inflation, and excessive litigation, Moody's strategists said, have made insurance more expensive. These headwinds to housing market affordability, in Moody's view, will ultimately have negative implications for credit.
Persons: , Moody's Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Moody's, Insurance, Institute Locations: Moody's, Oregon, Washington , Colorado , Florida , Massachusetts, New York, Hawaii, California, Florida , Idaho, Nevada, Florida, Arizona , California , Colorado, Utah
Navigating Today's Housing Market
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Diana Olick | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNavigating Today's Housing MarketWith mortgage rates high and housing inventories low, the market for home buyers and sellers is a tricky one. Advising clients on what might be the biggest sale and purchase decisions they ever make is tough even in the best of times. National Association of Realtors President Tracy Kasper joins CNBC Senior Climate and Real Estate Correspondent Diana Olick to make sense of it all.
Persons: Tracy Kasper, Diana Olick Organizations: National Association of Realtors, CNBC, Real Estate
Prospective buyers visit an open house for sale in Alexandria, Virginia. The housing market is dealing with several "tricky" dynamics, according to Tracy Kasper, president of the National Association of Realtors. That slowdown in home sales comes after "exponential increases year over year" during the Covid-19 pandemic, Kasper said. With fewer people selling their houses, she said, there is now an "inventory crisis." "We've seen a crunch — our first-time homebuyers are struggling," she added.
Persons: Tracy Kasper, Kasper Organizations: National Association of Realtors, CNBC's Locations: Alexandria , Virginia
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