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"Bank runs have started (and) interbank markets have become stressed," said Damien Boey, chief equity strategist at Sydney-based investment bank Barrenjoey. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also buffeted markets as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be reluctant to hike next week. Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. The prospect of higher interest rates had been "the reason investors have been really excited about Japan bank stocks." After marathon weekend talks, HSBC HSBA.L said it was buying the British arm of SVB for one pound ($1.21).

Traders currently see a 50% chance of no rate hike at that meeting, with rate cuts priced in for the second half of the year. Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) tumbled more than 60% as news of fresh financing failed to reassure investors, and so did Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL.N) and PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O). U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers on Monday who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. Regulators also moved swiftly to close New York's Signature Bank SBNY.O, which had come under pressure in recent days. In China, where SVB was the main go-to foreign bank for the majority of start-ups, entrepreneurs and venture funds were also scrambling for alternative funding.

SVB's meltdown sparked a partisan battle in Washington on Monday, with Democrats arguing that a Trump-era change to bank oversight rules undermined the stability of regional banks. In the money markets, indicators of credit risk in the U.S. and euro zone banking systems edged up. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. On Monday morning, U.S. bank regulators sought to reassure nervous customers who lined up outside SVB's Santa Clara, California, headquarters, offering coffee and donuts. A furious race to reprice interest rate expectations also sent waves through markets as investors bet the Fed will be reluctant to hike next week.

Biden said his administration's actions over the weekend meant "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe", while also promising stiffer regulation after the biggest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. Shares in U.S. banking giants JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) nevertheless weakened. But your second thought is, how big was that crisis, how big were the risks that this step had to be taken?" U.S. regulators stepped in on Sunday after the collapse of SVB, which had seen a run after a big bond portfolio hit. [1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023.

Rising CDS spreads signal investors are hedging bets on a deterioration in credit quality. In money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday. With investors worried about possible bank runs, the Federal Reserve on Sunday unveiled a new program to ensure banks can meet needs of all their depositors. "Hedge funds are probably the ones that are buyers in this case," said Dan Bruzzo, a strategist at Santander US Capital Markets. Other banks with California exposure were taking the brunt of the selloff in the debt capital markets, he added.

March 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields tumbled on Monday as the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) sent investors rushing into safe-haven assets and caused traders to bet on a smaller rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday. SVB's collapse sparked a massive rally in European and global bond markets on Monday. The German 2-year bond yield was last down 34 basis points (bps) at 2.746%, on track for its biggest one-day drop since 1995. Market pricing showed traders thought a 25 bp hike is now the more likely outcome, despite 50 bps appearing almost certain last week. The European Central Bank is not planning an emergency meeting of its banking supervisory board on Monday after the collapse of SVB, a senior source told Reuters.

Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling 15%. Biden said his administration's rapid actions at the weekend should reassure Americans that the U.S. banking system is safe, and promised stiffer bank regulation after the country's biggest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis. "Americans can have confidence that the banking system is safe. But big U.S. banks including JP Morgan Chase (JPM.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and Bank of America (BAC.N) also weakened. In the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone.

Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields dropped more than 50 basis points, much more than a drop of 37 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.

[1/3] U.S. President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the banking crisis after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, in the Roosevelt Room at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S. March 13, 2023. Germany's Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) fell as much as 12.7%, while Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) hit a new record low after falling more than 15%. Dowding said he did not think that a lot of the issues affecting U.S. banks would be present in European lenders. It said Silicon Valley Bank UK had loans of around 5.5 billion pounds and deposits of around 6.7 billion pounds as of March 10. U.S. banks lost more than $100 billion in stock market value late last week following SVB's failure, while European banks have now lost a similar amount, a Reuters calculation showed.

☆ Sell any stock rebound resulting from banking-system intervention, Morgan Stanley CIO says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Sell bounces in the stock market as the impact of SVB's failure plays out, said Morgan Stanley. "We suggest selling any bounces ... until we make new bear market lows, at a minimum," said CIO Mike Wilson. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after the lender faced a $1.8 billion loss on the sale of a bond portfolio whose value was hurt by the Fed's aggressive rate hikes. Wilson said the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and surrounding events serve as "just one more supporting factor" for its outlook for negative earnings growth outlook.

NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - Credit risk indicators flashed red on Monday, as investors worried about contagion risks across corporate debt markets after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York's Signature Bank in the space of 72 hours. Investment grade credit spreads, which indicate the premium investors demand to hold corporate bonds over safer government debt securities, have also been widening. The BlackRock Investment Institute said that after recently trimming its 'overweight' recommendation for investment grade credit, it was reassessing its view due to tighter financial conditions. In money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday. Other banks with California exposure were taking the brunt of the sell-off in the debt capital markets, he added.

Investors reeled in their expectations for global central bank rate hikes, and bank stocks tumbled once again. Reuters GraphicsIn the money markets, a closely watched indicator of credit risk in the U.S. banking system edged up on Monday, as did other indicators of credit risk in the euro zone. The gap between two-year euro swap rates and two-year German bond yields , widened by around 20 basis points to 83 basis points, to the highest since Nov. 11. Reuters GraphicsIn Germany, two-year bond yields were last down over 40 basis points, much more than a drop of 24 basis points on swap rates. Back in late 2008, when failed investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed, this swap rate went as negative as 300 bps.

☆ Analysis: Awaiting key data, some investors fear Fed will overdo tightening
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Some also worry that the Fed's messaging is becoming erratic as it reacts to successively weak then strong economic data. BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, was among the slew of big Wall Street names raising their views for how high policy rates could go, with a forecast of 6%. Reuters GraphicsFor some investors, a return to 50 and 75 basis point rate increases may be a bridge too far. "Investors fear the Fed is going to overdo it," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. A spate of hotter than expected data would soon show that the economy was stronger than the Fed had expected.

☆ TSX set for worst week in five months as rate hike worries mount
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ET (1527 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was down 132.38 points, or 0.66%, at 19,954.34. The rate-sensitive financials sector (.SPTTFS) slumped 1.4% to a two-month low, while banks (.GSPTXBA) fell 1.3%. Across the border, U.S. stock indexes fell on a selloff in bank shares after SVB Financial's efforts to raise capital sparked worries about the sector's health. Among company news, Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) shed 1.2% after it said it would acquire Loyalty Ventures' (LYLT.O) subsidiary's rewards program AIR MILES for an undisclosed amount. Loyalty Ventures fell 54.2% in U.S. trading.

☆ Bank of Canada says it needs more evidence that rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By Steve Scherer and David LjunggrenOTTAWA, March 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada needs more evidence to gauge if interest rates are high enough to tame inflation, in part because the economies of major trading partners are doing better than forecast, senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said on Thursday. She spoke a day after the central bank left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its tightening campaign as inflation eases. "If evidence accumulates suggesting inflation may not decline in line with our forecast, we're prepared to do more." The economic growth and inflation outlooks for both the United States and Europe are higher than the bank had expected in January. (Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Markets start signalling Fed may be going too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.

☆ Bank of Canada and Fed head for historic divergence, in a blow to loonie
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. A lower expected peak for Canadian rates has pressured the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart. ,Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points. "Poring over the national accounts, it's increasingly clear that interest-sensitive demand has wilted in Canada," Warren Lovely and Taylor Schleich, strategists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note after the recent GDP data. Still, there could be a limit to how much interest-rate divergence the BoC will allow, say analysts.

OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. In its statement, the BoC reiterated that it was "prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target." The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the central bank would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast it would stay on hold on Wednesday. Before the announcement, money markets had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged but were pricing in another tightening by September. The central bank said core inflation measures and short-term inflation expectations still needed to fall in order to return inflation to target.

☆ Bank of Canada seen leaving rates unchanged as growth stalls
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem holds a news conference at the Bank of Canada, amid the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Ottawa, Canada, June 22, 2020. "We expect the Bank of Canada to be the first G10 central bank to hold rates," said Jay Zhao-Murray, a forex analyst at Monex Canada. Money markets expect the policy rate to be left on hold on Wednesday but are pricing in another tightening by September. "Look for the Bank of Canada to point to slowing GDP growth and inflation when justifying its decision to maintain the level of rates," said Royce Mendes and Tiago Figueiredo, Desjardins economists, in a note. "The central bank is unlikely to do much to endorse the view that further rate hikes will be necessary," they said.

☆ Analysis: Governments could find avid buyers for record bond sales as ECB rates peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( Stefano Rebaudo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

March 8 (Reuters) - Investors have rapidly revised up their expectations for euro zone interest rates, but with a peak now in sight, governments might find it much easier to allocate record bond sales thanks to a cocktail of attractive yields and available liquidity. Traders are confident the ECB will have a smooth start to unwinding its huge bond holdings, a process known as quantitative tightening (QT). Bond demand is set to accelerate as markets increasingly price in a peak for yields. “The euro area keeps having excess liquidity and is able to fund smoothly the government bond supply expected for this year,” said Erjon Satko, rates strategist at BofA. Some analysts say that no matter what national treasuries do, they will relieve the pressure of record bond supply.

☆ BlackRock sees 'reasonable chance' of Fed raising rates to 6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told U.S. lawmakers on Tuesday that the U.S. central bank could become more aggressive in its rate hike path following recent strong economic data. "We think there’s a reasonable chance that the Fed will have to bring the Fed Funds rate to 6%, and then keep it there for an extended period to slow the economy and get inflation down to near 2%," Rieder said in a note on Tuesday. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday that it had raised its forecast for the so-called terminal rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.5%-5.75%. That data revived fears the Fed may resort once again to the same super-sized interest rate hikes that hammered stocks and bonds last year. Traders had largely expected the central bank to raise rates by 25 basis points at its next rate-setting meeting on March 21 to 22, but after Powell's remarks on Tuesday Fed funds futures were pricing in a 50 basis points hike, CME Group data showed.

☆ Dollar rises ahead of Powell speech; China data knocks commodities
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Beyond China, investor focus remains on the U.S. interest rate outlook and what Powell may say. If a similar message is conveyed by Chair Powell, we could see U.S. Treasury yields rising again and the dollar reversing back to an uptrend," they said. The MSCI All-World index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) edged down by 0.1%, but held near Monday's two-week highs. That pushed the Australian dollar to a more than two-month low of $0.6664, marking a loss of 1% on the day. The dollar pared earlier losses against the yen to trade up 0.2% at 136.19, near last week's 2023 high at 137.10.

☆ Dollar inches up ahead of Powell speech; China data knocks oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Crude shipments into China fell in January and February, stirring concern about demand in the world's largest importer, which weighed on the oil price. Beyond China, investor focus remains on the U.S. interest rate outlook and what Powell may say. The dollar edged up against a basket of major currencies, thanks to gains against the Aussie dollar and the euro, which fell 0.2% to $1.0661. The dollar lost 0.2% against the yen to trade at 135.69, below last week's 2023 high at 137.10. Chinese trade data on Tuesday showed a pickup in crude oil imports - a sign of a likely improvement in energy demand.

☆ Sterling slips after BoE's Mann warns of risks for the pound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 7 (Reuters) - Sterling slipped against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after a Bank of England (BoE) rate-setter warned that the pound could be vulnerable to Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) outlooks. The pound could depreciate if investors have not yet fully priced in hawkish messages from central bank peers, Catherine Mann told Bloomberg Television in an interview. "The important question for me with regard to the pound is how much of that existing hawkish tone is already priced into the pound," she said. Traders are also attaching a 93% chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase when the central bank meets to decide policy on March 23. There's no probability priced in that the bank could raise rates by more than that.

☆ Analysis: Investors revive inflation trades as 6% Fed rate risk grips Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Davide Barbuscia | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Spooked by a flurry of hotter-than-expected U.S. economic and inflation data last month, investors are reviving trading strategies that bet on a higher peak in interest rates. The recalibration in inflation expectations has led some investors to bet on a policy rate of 6% or even higher. Trading platform Tradeweb said it saw average daily volume in inflation swaps - derivatives used to hedge inflation risk - increase by 23% month-on-month in February. With higher inflation expectations lifting short-term bond yields higher than those at the longer end, some investors are wary of committing to debt maturities at the long end of the bond market yield curve. "The momentum in the economy is so strong that we may have to get into 2024 before the Fed funds rate peaks."

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