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☆ Hedge fund manager Boaz Weinstein bets market is wrong on Credit Suisse
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The curve trade in Credit Suisse reflects my view that one way or the other, in the next two years the drama around Credit Suisse will resolve for better or for worse. Weinstein led a proprietary trading fund at Deutsche Bank which was spun out to start Saba Capital Management in 2009. Credit Suisse's CDS surged in price through late November after the bank's $2.4 billion rights issue and the stock of the company fell to the lowest level in its 166-year history. While bearish bets against Credit Suisse mounted in late 2022, Weinstein says he watched Credit Suisse's CDS price curve make less and less sense: the 2-year protection on the bank cost about the same as the 10-year. Credit Suisse declined to comment.

☆ Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley both hit hard by deal drought
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Earnings for Goldman Sachs (GS) missed by their widest margin since the third quarter of 2011. Revenue tumbled 16% for Goldman Sachs (GS) in the fourth quarter, and profits plunged 66%. Morgan Stanley was hit by the slowdown too, with investment banking revenue dropping 49% from a year ago. Morgan Stanley’s overall revenue and earnings topped analysts’ forecasts though, while Goldman Sachs posted revenue also missed Wall Street’s targets. Goldman Sachs disclosed in a regulatory filing last week, however, that this division has lost more than $3 billion since 2020.

Companies Coal India Ltd FollowSINGAPORE/NEW DELHI, Jan 17 (Reuters) - India's power utilities will likely boost coal imports this year to cope with surges in demand, made worse over the past year by extreme temperatures, and with freight bottlenecks that are disrupting domestic coal supplies, analysts and officials said. Coal imports by Indian utilities more than doubled to 42 million tonnes during the first eight months of this fiscal year from April, compared with the year-ago period, despite an 11.9% increase in domestic coal supplies to utilities. Reuters GraphicsExtreme weather conditions have put an additional strain on power supplies. Disruptions to coal supply lines due to rail car shortages have compounded the problem, limiting the effectiveness of increased domestic coal production. Reuters GraphicsTrains made available by the Indian Railways to Coal India (COAL.NS), which produces 80% of India's coal, have fallen short of monthly targets for at least 21 months, government data shows.

☆ Companies’ Capital Spending Forecast to Slow in 2023 Amid Recession Fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kristin Broughton | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +8 min

Companies are expected to tap the brakes on capital investments this year as they assess the risk of a downturn and contend with higher financing costs. Capital spending in 2021 rose by 9% compared with 2020, the first year of the pandemic, EY said. After two years of spending heavily, some companies want to take a pause to digest the investments they’ve made, advisers said. FedEx Corp. last month lowered its capital spending forecast for the current fiscal year by $400 million, to $5.9 billion. The remainder said they don’t finance their capital spending plans through borrowing, or their borrowing isn’t sensitive to changes in interest rates.

☆ Economists say BOJ's Amamiya is top governor candidate, tightening this week unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Kantaro Komiya | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Of the 24 economists who replied to the Jan 5-12 poll, 16, or 67%, chose Amamiya as the most likely candidate to become the next BOJ governor. Four economists in the poll, or 17%, chose Nakaso, who is seen less dovish than Amamiya, as the most likely candidate. In a September poll that asked the same question, Amamiya and Nakaso received 61% and 33% of economists' votes, respectively. Five analysts expected the unwinding of easing to start in April, at the first BOJ meeting under the new governor. Elsewhere in the poll, 83% of economists said Japanese nominal wages were unlikely to outpace rising consumer prices in 2023.

☆ Markets think the Fed is about to deliver a smaller rate hike, but here's one big reason the central bank could stay aggressive on its next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-14 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors are locking in expectations that the Fed will downshift its interest rate hike in February. The December core rate was 0.3% on a monthly basis, up from 0.2% in November. Shelter inflation that monitors costs for renters and homeowners climbed 0.8%. "Bond yields moving lower, the VIX moving lower and the dollar moving lower suggests that the iceberg of fear that we've seen for the last year almost is easing," Russell said. "The market looks out and they see a scenario of lower inflation … they see that we're getting to the end of this aggressive rate hiking."

☆ TSMC Warns of Possible Revenue Drop, Spending Cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Yang Jie | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. said that its revenue could drop as much as around 5% in the current quarter and that it could cut this year’s capital expenditures compared with last year, citing weak demand. TSMC , which reported record full-year revenue in 2022, said Thursday that it expected to post between $16.7 billion and $17.5 billion in revenue in the January-to-March quarter, compared with the $17.57 billion from a year earlier. The last time TSMC’s quarterly revenue declined year-over-year was in the first quarter of 2019, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The Fed's aggressive monetary policy tightening to curb decades-high inflation hammered U.S. equities in 2022, with the three main indexes logging their steepest annual declines since 2008. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Tuesday the U.S. central bank will have to raise interest rates further to combat high inflation. Healthcare stocks (.SPXHC) rose 0.5% and were also a major boost to the benchmark S&P 500 index. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners for a 1.17-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 1.62-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded one new 52-week high and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 37 new highs and 20 new lows.

☆ Triller missed its target for going public again, as it waits for the SEC to OK its confidential filing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Dan Whateley | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Triller is in a holding pattern on its path to becoming a public company. A spokesperson said that once its registration statement is declared effective, it will make the filing public for the required time ahead of its public listing. The long slog toward becoming a public company as lawsuits pile upTriller has been pursuing a public offering for over a year. In December 2021, Triller announced it instead planned to go public via a reverse merger with the video-tech company Seachange International. "After much deliberation, Triller has determined that the best course of action is a direct listing for Triller."

☆ Save, don't spend, warns Intuit's CEO, as he notices 'good behavior' around money habits eroding
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Jason Lalljee | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

That's partially due to inflation woes, but spending on travel and recreation still remains high. That's largely due to an unprecedented boon in cash from stimulus checks and other pandemic aid along with reduced spending amid the pandemic. Inflation has been eating into Americans' wallets for the last two years, but it's not the only reason savings are falling. Spending has remained strong overall, especially for in-person services that were especially constrained during the worst of the pandemic, said Goodarzi. Credit bureau Experian defines a score of 580 to 669 as "fair," and most Americans fall somewhere between 600 and 750.

☆ How Samsung Could Climb Out of the Chip Price Pit
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Jacky Wong | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

South Korea’s Samsung Electronics has recorded an unexpectedly steep profit plunge as the memory-chip market wilts. How long the market slump lasts also depends on how quickly—or whether—the South Korean electronics giant changes its tune on its ambitious output growth plans. Samsung’s operating profit for the quarter ending in December dropped 69% from a year earlier to its lowest level since 2014, according to the company’s preliminary results released Friday. That was also much lower than analysts’ estimates on S&P Global Market Intelligence. The company will report full earnings later this month.

☆ S&P Global Market Intelligence: Fears of soaring inflation and energy crunch alleviating
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P Global Market Intelligence: Fears of soaring inflation and energy crunch alleviatingChris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, discusses the latest euro zone PMI data, consumer demand, and business sentiment in the face of loosening Covid restrictions in China.

☆ Euro zone recession may not be as deep as expected -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity contracted less than initially thought at the end of last year as price pressures eased, according to a survey which suggested the bloc's recession may not be as deep as expected. S&P Global's final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the euro zone, seen as a good gauge of economic health, rose to 49.3 in December from November's 47.8, above a preliminary estimate of 48.8. "Nevertheless, there is little evidence across the survey results to suggest the euro zone economy may return to meaningful and stable growth any time soon." Overall demand declined for a sixth straight month, albeit at a shallower pace than initially thought. The PMI new business index bounced to 47.0 from 45.8, comfortably above the 46.5 flash estimate.

☆ India's services growth at 6-month high on robust demand - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Anant Chandak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Rupak De ChowdhuriBENGALURU, Jan 4 (Reuters) - India's services industry saw activity increase at the fastest pace in six months during the final month of 2022 amid robust demand, fuelling business optimism despite high costs, a private-sector survey showed. The S&P Global India services purchasing managers' index (PMI) (INPMIS=ECI) rose to 58.5 in December from 56.4 in the previous month, confounding expectation in a Reuters poll for a fall to 55.5. The index was above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for the 17th straight month - the longest stretch of growth since June 2013. Hiring hit a five-month low, albeit in expansionary territory, even though the new business sub-index rose to a four-month high due to strong demand. Thanks to the growth in services as well as in manufacturing, the composite index rose to 59.4 in December, the highest since January 2012, from 56.7 in November.

☆ Canada factory sector posts longest slowdown in 7 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a seasonally adjusted 49.2 in December from 49.6 in November. It was the fifth straight month that the index was below the 50 threshold that marks contraction in the sector. That's the longest sequence of declines since a seven-month stretch from August 2015 to February 2016, S&P Global said. "The Canadian manufacturing economy turned in another relatively subdued performance as 2022 closed," Paul Smith, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement. After declining for five straight months, the input price index was higher in December, rising to 61.5 from 60.9 in the prior month.

☆ Fading supply problems ease downturn in German manufacturing -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Fading supply chain problems helped ease the downturn in Germany's manufacturing sector in December, although weaker demand continues to weigh on sentiment, a survey showed on Monday. S&P Global's final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany's economy, rose to 47.1 from November's 46.2. While it was the third month-on-month increase in a row, the index is still below the 50 mark, meaning activity continues to shrink, albeit at a slower pace. A Reuters poll of analysts had pointed to a December reading of 47.4, in line with an earlier flash reading. makers of components for other businesses), with high stocks being just one of the factors weighing on demand," said Smith.

☆ Turkish factory activity contracts in Dec but shows improvement -PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ISTANBUL, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Turkish factory activity contracted for the 10th month running in December but showed some signs of improvement from previous months as output and new orders fell more slowly, a survey showed on Monday. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for manufacturing stood at 48.1 in December, up from 45.7 in November, the Istanbul Chamber of Industry and S&P Global said. While December's reading was the highest since June, it remained below the 50-point line that separates contractions from expansions in activity. "There were some tentative signs of improvement in the latest PMI survey, which if continued into the new year could see the Turkish manufacturing sector gaining some ground," said Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence. Reporting by Ezgi Erkoyun; Writing by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Darkest days likely over for euro zone factories, December PMIs show
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity has likely passed its trough as supply chains begin to recover and inflationary pressures ease, a survey showed on Monday, leading to a rebound in optimism among factory managers. S&P Global's final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) bounced to 47.8 in December from November's 47.1, matching a preliminary reading but still below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction. "Prospects have brightened amid signs of healing supply chains and a marked softening of inflationary pressures, as well as a calming of concerns over the region's energy crisis, thanks in part to government assistance." With inflationary pressures easing, supply chains healing and an energy crisis likely averted purchasing managers turned optimistic and the future output index jumped to 53.8 from 48.8. Reporting by Jonathan Cable; Editing by Hugh LawsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ South Korea December factory activity weakens on demand slump, trucker strike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SEOUL, Jan 2 (Reuters) - South Korea's factory activity shrank for a sixth consecutive month in December, a business survey showed on Monday, as the global economic downturn and a local truckers' strike led to the worst slump in demand in 2-1/2 years. The S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for South Korea manufacturers fell to a seasonally-adjusted 48.2 last month from 49.0 in November. Sub-indexes showed output contracted for an eighth straight month, new orders declined for a sixth month, and new export orders shrank for a 10th month. Meanwhile, suppliers' delivery times were their worst since June, as South Korean truckers went on a strike for the second time in 2022. "Low levels of client demand, on both a domestic and international scale, were central to the latest deterioration."

☆ French manufacturing contraction not as deep as forecast in Dec - final PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, Jan 2 (Reuters) - France's manufacturing sector contracted less than first thought in December, a survey showed on Monday, even though inflationary pressures continued to weigh on the euro zone's second-biggest economy. S&P Global's final December purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.2 points, just below the 50 mark that denotes growth in activity. The final December reading was nevertheless above the December flash PMI figure of 48.9. It also marked a recovery from November's final reading of 48.3. "However, the strength of the downturn continued to ease, with output and new orders falling at their slowest rates since May and June respectively.

☆ Companies Spend Record Amounts on Dividends, Despite Looming Downturn
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +7 min

They usually review their cash flow expectations for at least the next 18 months when determining whether or how much to pay in dividends, Mr. Silverblatt said. Of the S&P 500, 373 companies raised dividends in 2022 through Dec. 15, compared with 353 in 2021, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Five S&P 500 companies decreased their dividend in 2022 through Dec. 15, compared with four in 2021. It paid $7 billion in cash dividends for the year ended Oct. 30, up 13.2% from the prior-year period. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $505.5 million as of Sept. 30, down from $673 million a year earlier, filings showed.

☆ Companies Strengthen Collections, Aim to Get Cash in the Door as Threat of Downturn Looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Kristin Broughton | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +6 min

Companies are stepping up efforts to collect on their bills and get cash in the door, aiming to limit future write-offs ahead of a potential downturn. The company’s days of sales outstanding during the latest quarter declined to 67.3 days from 70.4 days during the prior period, according to S&P. Early in the pandemic, some companies extended payment terms to customers that needed funds to shore up liquidity to help navigate temporary lockdown measures. Everbridge said it aims to provide customers with payment terms that are mutually beneficial. ServiceNow’s days of sales outstanding during the third quarter fell to 44 days from 47.4 days a year earlier, according to S&P.

☆ Main Street is buying stocks while Wall Street sells: What gives?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But not all traders are on the same ride — the large, institutional investors on Wall Street have shuffled away from markets while Main Street’s retail investors are still strapped in. But despite this year’s lackluster market, investors bought $800 billion of Exchange Traded Funds which are baskets of stocks typically purchased by retail investors. However, Main Street is holding on to its stocks while Wall Street is running for the hills. One simple explanation is that institutional investors are responsible for vast amounts of money that belong to other people. “Respect, for retail investors, is in short supply,” wrote Azalea Micottis at Informa Financial Intelligence, in a recent note.

☆ Elon Musk asked Twitter users whether he should stay on as CEO, but he'd already made up his mind to go
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Rebecca Knight | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Elon Musk ran a poll asking Twitter users if he should step down as CEO and the majority said yes. Musk said that he'd abide by the results of the poll, though he's so far not commented on the outcome. By posing the stay-or-go question in an online poll, Musk is able to to portray himself as a magnanimous chief who listens to his constituents. In resigning his post by virtue of a vote, Musk can boost his personal wealth and return to his beloved car company under the guise of democratic leadership. Shares of Tesla rose on Monday after the Twitter poll results, though they ended the day largely unchanged, trading at just below $150.

☆ Japan Dec factory activity contracts at fastest pace in 26 months
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Japan's manufacturing activity shrank at the fastest pace in more than two years in December on soft demand and persistent cost pressures, a corporate survey showed on Friday. The au Jibun Bank Flash Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was down to a seasonally adjusted 48.8 in December from a final reading of 49.0 in the previous month. Output and new orders extended their contraction for a sixth month in December, although at slower paces than last month. The au Jibun Bank flash services PMI rose to a seasonally adjusted 51.7 in December, from the previous month's 50.3 final, the survey showed. With subdued manufacturers and robust services, the au Jibun Bank Flash Japan composite PMI stood on the break-even line of 50.0, up from a final 48.9 last month.

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