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☆ Bitcoin could soar 266% to $250,000 next year if ETF inflows stay strong, Standard Chartered says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2025, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick predicted. That's as long as spot ETF inflows remain strong, and reserve managers begin buying crypto. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementBitcoin could surge to as high as $250,000 in 2025, propelled by the success of spot ETFs and growing interest from reserve managers, Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick forecast in a note on Monday. Such a stellar rise is likely if fund inflows remain as strong as they are, the firm said.

Persons: Geoff Kendrick, That's, —, Bitcoin Organizations: Service, FX, Business

☆ China's economic plans make a trade war likely whether Biden or Trump wins the presidency
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's surge in exports means a trade conflict is likely under either presidential candidate, Capital Economics said. The nation now makes up 15% of global manufacturing exports, which it will have to unload onto US consumers. He sees it as a consequence of the pandemic, when outsized lockdown demand ignited China's manufacturing sector, and output has jumped over 25% since 2019. Miller estimated that a trade war could start as soon as next year. During his tenure in the White House, he led a tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing, with many of its policies still in place under President Joe Biden.

Persons: —, Mr Trump, Neil Shearing, Shearing, Leland Miller, it's, They're, they're, Miller, Donald Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, White, Washington, Capital, Democrat, CNBC Locations: China, Beijing, Europe

☆ The housing market's inventory crisis is finally easing
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Read previewUS home-sellers are finally getting accustomed to higher mortgage rates. "The housing market is nothing like it was two years ago during the pandemic homebuying frenzy, but it's better than it was last year. Mortgage-purchase applications declined through February, as rates rose from early 2024. While mortgage rates are moving back down from last month's 6.78% average, they are likely to remain elevated for longer, Redfin said. AdvertisementBetween mortgage rates and higher prices, the median US monthly housing payment stood $2,686 through February, just $30 below last year's all-time high.

Persons: —, Redfin, It's, David Palmer, Sellers Organizations: Service, Business, Mortgage, White

☆ Rising unemployment poses the biggest threat to a soft landing, Nobel economist Paul Krugman says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A US soft landing looks likely, but rising unemployment is cause for worry, Paul Krugman wrote in The New York Times. AdvertisementThe US economy is comfortably in soft landing territory, but Paul Krugman says it isn't altogether clear that it will stay that way. February's jobs report triggered these concerns, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9% from 3.7%. Krugman notes that on other fronts, however, soft landing advocates have a stronger case. While consumer price index inflation data has outpaced expectations two months in a row now, these recent reports are not completely in line with reality, Krugman wrote.

Persons: Paul Krugman, —, He's, Krugman, David Rosenberg, That's, Biden, we're Organizations: The New York Times, Service, New York Times

☆ A majority of strategists no longer think the most famous recession indicator is reliable, new survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters say an inverted yield curve has diminished as a reliable recession indicator. The yield curve has been inverted for 20 months without a recession striking. Any recession the curve is predicting has been stalled by resilient US economic strength. AdvertisementProlonged economic momentum may have snapped the inverted yield curve's spot-on precision in forecasting recessions, as a majority of strategists polled by Reuters now see its reliability diminished. An inverted curve — when the spread between 2- and 10-year US Treasurys is negative — has successfully preceded almost every recession since 1955.

Persons: — Organizations: Reuters, Service, Business

☆ The majority of altcoins launched since 2020 are dead, but bitcoin's latest rally could spark a revival
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

72% of crypto projects have died since 2020, a report from Alphaquest and Storible said. On Friday, crypto market capitalization hit a record high of $2.58 trillion. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Since 2020, 72% of crypto projects have died, according to a report published by Alphaquest and Storible. On Friday, the crypto market hit a new record, with capitalization reaching $2.58 trillion, Kuptsikevich wrote in a market update.

Persons: Storible, —, Alphaquest, FTX's, bitcoin, Geoff Kendrick, Alexander Kuptsikevich, Liquid Investments Seth Ginns, Kuptsikevich, Kendrick Organizations: Service, Standard, BTC, Business, CoinFund, Liquid Investments Locations: Alphaquest, altcoins

☆ Biden wants to make it easier for people to buy their first home. But there aren't enough houses.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. But I'm not waiting," President Joe Biden said during Thursday's State of the Union address. The White House is stepping up as homeownership costs keep mounting, with over 90% of the market overvalued. AdvertisementIn order to unlock supply, Biden called for a one-year tax credit of $10,000 to families selling a starter home. Ahead of the speech, Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen noted that the supply crunch is worse than the White House has laid out.

Persons: —, Biden, I'm, Joe Biden, homebuyers, David Dworkin, Skylar Olsen, unspent Organizations: Service, Biden Administration, Business, National Housing, CNBC, Treasury Department Locations: homebuyers, Thursday's State

☆ Why June is the best time to sell your home
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-07 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

May is traditionally the best time to sell, but high mortgage rates have shifted this. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . In pre-pandemic years, early May had stood out as the best time to list, with search activity peaking by the end of the spring season. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Zillow, — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ China's focus on boosting exports will disrupt global politics and start a new trade war next year, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China wants to transition its growth model, with a bigger role for manufacturing, China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller told CNBC. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementAs China looks to transition towards a healthier growth model, its strategy could spark a head-to-head with other global economies, China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller told CNBC. Because the Chinese economic growth model is not sustainable considering the political sensitivities of the rest of the world." Meanwhile, a flood of Chinese solar panels to Europe has sparked warnings that one of the region's biggest production sites could close.

Persons: Leland Miller, —, Miller, they're, They're, BYD, Tesla Organizations: CNBC, Service, Beijing Locations: China, Beijing, Europe

☆ The US wants to boost affordable housing by using billions in unspent COVID aid
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US Treasury Department is making unused COVID funds available to support housing projects. The State and Local Fiscal Recovery Funds has around $40 billion in unspent money, Reuters said. The Treasury will also step up efforts to understand the impact of climate risks on housing supply. AdvertisementBillions of unspent pandemic dollars have been made available for housing projects as the federal government steps up efforts to tackle the shortage of affordable homes. The department also indefinitely extended backstop financing for a risk-sharing program between the Department of Housing and Urban Development and local financing agencies.

Persons: —, Wally Adeyemo Organizations: US Treasury Department, Reuters, Treasury, Service, US Treasury, of Housing, Urban Development Locations: State

☆ The Fed is 'held hostage' by data and risks sparking financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's over-dependence on data risks financial instability, Mohamed El-Erian wrote in a recent op-ed for Bloomberg. He says the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve's strict adherence to data is sapping it of policy alternatives, economist Mohamed El-Erian wrote for Bloomberg on Friday. Many central bank officials want to see a clear disinflationary trend in the data before cutting rates. He expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged through 2024, citing that neither inflation nor the US economy is sufficiently cooling.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Torsten Slok Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Fed

☆ The 3 states where 'Big Short' investor Kyle Bass is buying real estate to capitalize on migration trends
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-03 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Kyle Bass is investing in Texas, Florida, and Tennessee, he said in a recent interview with the Investor's Podcast Network. These states should benefit from migration to lower-cost states, a trend that's already happening. Bass has been buying rural land to capitalize on demand for environmental credits. By then, the price-per-acre of rural land had appreciated 123% over the decade, the outlet cited. "When I think about gold versus rural land again, I have the population demographic in my tailwind," he said in 2022.

Persons: Kyle Bass, Bass, he's, isn't Bass Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Hayman Capital, Equity Management Locations: Texas , Florida, Tennessee, Florida , Tennessee, Texas, West Coast, California, New York, China

☆ The US housing market is slowly thawing, but 91% of homes are still overvalued, Fitch says
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Homes in 91% of US metro areas were overvalued in the third quarter, Fitch Ratings reported. Home prices are 11.1% overvalued, an uptick from prior quarters, as wage growth lagged. AdvertisementThe US housing market is seeing some signs of loosening amid an uptick in sales and inventory, but last year's price growth has only intensified the overvaluation in the market, Fitch Ratings highlighted on Friday. Homes were 11.1% overvalued as of the third quarter, a trend extending to 91% of US metro areas. Given that prices kept rising into the fourth quarter, Fitch expects overvaluation to have continued through the end of last year.

Persons: —, Fitch, overvaluation Organizations: Fitch, Global, Service, Homes, Business

☆ How China can rescue itself and restore confidence, according to a UBS economist
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Market confidence can rebound if Beijing is less hesitant about implementing solutions, specifically those targeting its spanning property sector and domestic consumption. Lower rates would depreciate the yuan, some fear, but this risk would diminish alongside an economic support package, Wang said. Advertisement"The benefit of rate cuts is likely to far outweigh the negative impact of modestly widening the US-China rate gap," she noted.

Persons: Tao Wang, —, Wang Organizations: UBS, FT, Service, Financial Times Locations: China, Beijing, Shanghai

☆ 'If you see a home you love, don't wait': How homebuyers should react to falling mortgage rates, according to Realtor.com
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-27 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Gradually falling mortgage rates will create a more challenging market, Realtor.com wrote in a new report. They said homebuyers shouldn't wait for lower rates, and buy a home when they're financially ready. Homebuyers shouldn't hold out for lower mortgage rates, as the gradual decline will only encourage other market challenges. Instead, it's best that financially prepared buyers move forward on properties that fit their needs, Realtor.com wrote in on Tuesday. Mortgage rates have been on the decline since peaking at a near-8% level last October, a high not reached since 2000.

Persons: Realtor.com, homebuyers, they're, Homebuyers shouldn't Organizations: Business

☆ Homebuyers are flocking to areas most exposed to extreme weather risk and pushing prices higher, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But the firm says rising insurance costs could eventually dampen demand. The researchers then gave each county a composite climate risk score, measured against each area's house price index. AdvertisementA positive relationship also emerged between higher climate risk and population growth, indicating that more people were migrating in than leaving these areas. Others may simply have no intent on selling, and consider themselves too old to experience these rising costs. But changes to property insurance may force prospective buyers to give more attention to climate risks, JPMorgan noted.

Persons: Alexander Wise, Jan Loeys, Risks, Redfin Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Foundation Locations: Florida

☆ Solar power could drive more than half of new electricity generated in the US this year, EIA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. Utility-scale solar projects will account for 58% of added US capacity in 2024, boosting the amount of electric output across the country. An expected 36.4 gigawatts of new utility-scale solar are to be added to the grid this year — a record addition that will nearly double last year's 18.4 GW of installations. Over half of new solar capacity will be added in Texas, California, and Florida. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Organizations: Service, US Energy Information Administration, Business Locations: Texas , California, Florida

☆ China rolled out a new measure of youth unemployment. It shows the nation's labor market is still a mess, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: 1 min

AdvertisementChina's youth unemployment rate is once again available to the world, after a six-month blackout period where no new figures were published. Joblessness looks to have dropped considerably since the data was last released in June. But the new figure isn't exactly comparable to previous months — it now excludes full-time students from the calculation. On its face value, youth unemployment in December stood at 14.9%, whereas it touched 21.3% in the summer. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Organizations: Business

☆ The risk of a recession could flare up if the Fed waits too long to cut rates, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

At this point, only a disorderly financial adjustment or a central bank policy mistake could tip the balance, such as if the Fed hesitates to cut rates when the time comes. AdvertisementJanuary's inflation data did give the central bank reason to hold for longer, as Tuesday's report came in hotter than investors anticipated. Failure to come through with three cuts would also be a policy mistake. Generally, the US economy is suffering a "stock problem," as the market's rally been built on excessive Fed cut expectations. Instead, the CPI data provided a wake-up call for carried-away investors, El-Erian said, which explains Tuesday's market overreaction to the report.

Persons: —, Mohamed El, Erian, they've, Dow Jones Organizations: Service, Federal, CNBC, Business, Queens ' College

☆ A hot economy isn't a good reason for the Fed to 'drag its feet' on rate cuts, former central bank economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed adds to recessionary risk if it stalls rate cuts, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. AdvertisementStrong labor and inflation conditions shouldn't stall interest rate cuts, and a higher-for-longer policy only compounds distress in the US economy, Claudia Sahm wrote in the Financial Times. We are so close to unwinding the final Covid disruptions," the former central bank economist wrote. "Now it is not the time for the central bank to drag its feet on rate cuts. But the world has changed with notable disinflation, and the Fed is not changing its policy," she wrote.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, —, It's, Sahm Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Federal, Fed

☆ China's economy is 'booming,' but it's being held back by a lack of confidence, Standard Chartered CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's economy is transitioning from an old to newer one, Standard Chartered Bill Winters told CNBC. The country's new economy is actually booming into double-digit growth rates, though confidence doesn't reflect this. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . "I think China is going through a major transition from old economy to new economy. Since the pandemic, domestic consumers have focused aggressively on saving, weighing down on the country's growth and the world's only deflationary economy.

Persons: Bill Winters, —, Winters, it's, we've Organizations: CNBC, Service Locations: China, Beijing

☆ The number of new commercial mortgages plummeted 47% last year
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Mortgage originations in commercial real estate fell 47% through 2023, Mortgage Bankers Association said. AdvertisementMortgage originations for commercial properties dropped 47% in 2023, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported. The drawdown came as weak confidence bears down on commercial real estate. Despite these obstacles, MBA previously anticipated that commercial mortgage lending would climb into 2024, gaining 29% to an expected volume of $476 billion. Advertisement"2023 is likely to go into the record books as the slowest year for commercial real estate borrowing and lending in roughly a decade," MBA Head of Commercial Real Estate Research Jamie Woodwell said in January's report.

Persons: —, Jamie Woodwell, Woodwell, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Mortgage Bankers Association, Service, Healthcare, Real

☆ DraftKings and FanDuel are set to be the big Super Bowl winners amid record betting activity fueled by Taylor Swift
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-10 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewSports betting companies are set to score big at this weekend's Super Bowl, with DraftKings and FanDuel leading the rush, Bank of America said in a Friday note. Sunday's game will see the Kansas City Chiefs play against the San Francisco 49ers, paving the way for blowout betting activity. DraftKings and FanDuel stand to benefit the most from this weekend of big betting, BofA equity strategists led by Shaun Kelley wrote. AdvertisementSports betting industry players are also positioned to benefit from the expected attendance of Taylor Swift, whose presence may kick betting activity into a higher gear, BofA wrote. Some examples of these proposition bets — wagers not tied to the game's outcome — include DraftKings' "how you get the girl," where Kelce scores a touchdown in each half.

Persons: —, FanDuel, Shaun Kelley, Kelley, Taylor Swift, BofA, Travis Kelce's, Swift, FanDuel isn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, Research Ben Andrews, Jim Chanos Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Business, 49ers, Chiefs, NYSE, Leisure, Research

☆ China's market crash could be the last straw for many foreign investors who leave permanently, think tank says
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-09 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

China's crashing stock market could be the breaking point for foreign investors, Atlantic Council's Jeremy Mark said. AdvertisementThe decline of China's stock market may have scarred it for the long-term, as foreign investors likely aren't coming back, the Atlantic Council wrote on Friday. China's property market is the leading concern, considering the sector accounts for around a quarter of the nation's GDP. Foreign investors have been disenchanted by Beijing's slow response, while the government's 2020 crackdown on the tech sector provided another incentive to move out of Chinese markets, Marks noted. "Even if the economy and property market bottom out in 2024, there are worrying signals about the government's intentions for stock investors.

Persons: Jeremy Mark, —, Mark, Beijing's, Marks, It's Organizations: Service, Atlantic Council Locations: Atlantic, China, Beijing

☆ Mortgage payments have reverted back near all-time highs as the Fed delays rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

AdvertisementRising mortgage rates are inflating mortgage payments, which are now roughly $110 under October's all-time peak, Redfin reported. With the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaging 6.63% in the four weeks through January, the median monthly payment hit $2,607. As mortgage rates loosely follow interest levels, renewed signals that interest rates will stay higher for longer are instead leading to a mortgage rate rebound. Redfin expects mortgage rates to remain elevated near current levels until the Fed cuts interest rates, which may be months away from happening. "I'm advising buyers — especially first-timers — that the mortgage rates they see in the news aren't the be-all and end-all.

Persons: Redfin, —, Luis Rojas, hasn't, Rojas, Fannie Mae's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Locations: It's

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