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That hawkish change in market expectations has helped boost the U.S. dollar to its highest level since March. Just over 25% of economists in the poll, 23 of 86, forecast at least one Fed rate cut by the end of 2023, but that is down from 28% in the last poll. The U.S. Labor Department is due to release consumer price inflation data on June 13, the first day of the Fed meeting. "If most Fed officials feel at least another 25-basis-point hike will be necessary, it seems simplest to deliver that hike in June rather than 'skip'." Inflation as measured by core PCE was forecast to remain above 2% at least until 2025.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Philip Marey, Janet Yellen, Andrew Hollenhorst, Oscar Munoz, Prerana Bhat, Indradip Ghosh, Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan, Maneesh Kumar, Ross Finley, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S . Federal, Reuters, U.S, Rabobank, Treasury, Bank of Canada, U.S . Labor Department, Citi, National Bureau of Economic Research, TD Securities, Thomson Locations: BENGALURU, U.S, Canadian

☆ Markets are making a bet that inflation is finally starting to ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

There is "good news for both inflation and growth," Evercore ISI Chair Ed Hyman said in a client note Tuesday. Fed officials already had been largely discounting shelter prices that they expect to recede through the year. Core services inflation "is likely to slow significantly for the rest of this year and next," Hyman wrote. To be sure, inflation is likely to remain a problem ahead, and Fed officials have stated multiple times that the current level is too high . Both increases "should also be an important reminder to markets and Fed officials," Citigroup economist Andrew Hollenhorst wrote Wednesday.

Persons: bank's, Ed Hyman, Hyman, —, Christopher Waller, Andrew Hollenhorst, Janet Yellen, Yellen, we're Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, PMI, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Citigroup

☆ Treasury Secretary Yellen says she wouldn't be surprised to see more bank consolidation
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

WASHINGTON — Given the overall environment in the industry, it's likely for some smaller banks to consolidate, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday morning. "There is motivation to see some consolidation and it wouldn't surprise me to see some of that going forward," Yellen said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box." Yellen said she wouldn't want to see the diverse banking system threatened by further consolidation, but it would be understandable given the pressure on earnings some banks are experiencing,

Persons: WASHINGTON —, Janet Yellen, Yellen

☆ Yellen urges new World Bank chief to 'get the most' from balance sheet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( David Lawder | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday told incoming World Bank Group President Ajay Banga to "get the most out of the bank's balance sheet" and mobilize more private capital for climate finance and global development objectives, the Treasury said. That includes continuing to implement recommendations from last year's G20 report on capital adequacy, which argued that changes to multilateral development banks could unlock hundreds of billions of dollars in new lending. She also said the World Bank needed to work more closely with its sister development banks. Banga, 63, was elected to a five-year term as World Bank president by the lender's board of governors on May 3. The U.S., the World Bank's largest shareholder, has traditionally chosen an American to run the World Bank, while Europe has chosen the head of the International Monetary Fund.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Ajay Banga, David Malpass, Yellen, Joe Biden, Malpass, David Lawder, Richard Chang, Chris Reese Organizations: . Treasury, World Bank, Treasury, Mastercard, AAA, U.S, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Banga, Ukraine, U.S, American, Europe

☆ Debt Ceiling Senate on Brink of Passing Debt Limit Bill
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Carl Hulse | Catie Edmondson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

The wrangling over the nation’s debt limit raises a lot of questions, including what it actually is and why the United States has one. What is the debt limit? Why does the United States have a debt limit? While the debt limit was created to make government run more smoothly, many policymakers believe that it has become more trouble than it’s worth. What happens if the debt limit is not raised or suspended?

Persons: Janet L, Yellen, Ms Organizations: Congress, United, Treasury Department, Treasury, Liberty Bond Act, Wall Street, Social Security Locations: United States

The House Rules Committee voted to advance a bill dealing with the federal debt ceiling to the full House. Raising the debt limit, now $31.4 trillion, would allow Treasury to continue borrowing to pay the US's bills. Earlier, he said on "Fox and Friends" that "There's nothing in the bill for" Democrats — hardly a helpful statement for Biden. Top administration officials are heading to Capitol Hill to brief Democrats privately ahead of Wednesday's planned vote. "It is my expectation that House Republicans would keep their promise and deliver at least 150 votes as it relates to an agreement that they themselves negotiated," Jeffries said.

Persons: —, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden, McCarthy, Democrats —, Biden, Wednesday's, Hakeem Jeffries, Jeffries, Scott Perry, Chip Roy, Nancy Mace, Pramila Jayapal, it's, Sen, Joe Manchin, Raul Grijalva, Chuck Schumer, McConnell, Schumer, Democratic Sen, Tim Kaine, Virginia, Janet Yellen, Aamer Madhani, Seung Min Kim, Farnoush Amiri, Darlene Superville, Mary Clare Jalonick Organizations: Treasury, Service, WASHINGTON, Republicans, Democrats, Caucus, Republican, Capitol, Fox, Office, Social Security, Democratic, Freedom Caucus, Liberal, Appalachia ., Congressional Progressive Caucus, Democrat, Natural Resources Committee, Senate, Senators, House, Associated Press Locations: Washington, Texas, Appalachia, Arizona, That's

☆ Debt Ceiling Live Updates: House Prepares for Vote on Debt Limit Deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Catie Edmondson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +4 min

Which raises a lot of questions, including what the debt limit actually is and why the United States has one. Here’s everything you need to know about the debt limit. What is the debt limit? Why does the United States have a debt limit? While the debt limit was created to make government run more smoothly, many policymakers believe that it has become more trouble than it’s worth.

Persons: Biden, Kevin McCarthy, Janet L, Yellen, Ms Organizations: Congress, United, Treasury Department, Treasury, Liberty Bond Act, Wall Street, Social Security Locations: United States

☆ Dollar eases as deal over US debt ceiling lifts risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose a deal to raise the United States' $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. "Still, a higher debt ceiling and some reduction in spending in the FY24 budget are the middle ground." "Outside of any volatility generated by the debt ceiling issues, expectations for Fed rate hikes are likely to keep the dollar bid in the near term." Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied in Asia on Tuesday on the debt ceiling deal. Until then, higher U.S. Treasury yields and weak expectations for BoJ tightening can push USD/JPY higher."

☆ Treasury yields stumble as investors anticipate debt ceiling deal vote
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by 10 basis points to 3.719%. The 2-year Treasury was trading more than 7 basis points lower at 4.514%. U.S. Treasury yields fell on Tuesday as markets reopened after being closed for Memorial Day on Monday and investors braced themselves for a vote on a debt ceiling deal ahead of the June 5 deadline. Over the weekend, President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement to raise the debt ceiling. A vote on the deal is expected to take place Wednesday in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and later in the week in the Senate, which is controlled by the Democrats.

☆ Dollar eases as deal over U.S. debt ceiling lifts risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Asian shares rise as investors cheer US debt ceiling agreement
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Hong Kong CNN —Asian stocks mostly rose on Monday as investors cheered an agreement in principle between the White House and House Republicans to raise the US debt ceiling that could avert a cataclysmic default. The index has rallied more than 20% this year, outpacing global benchmark indexes including the S&P 500 and the Stoxx 600. WTI crude, a US benchmark, rose 0.9% to $73.32 a barrel. The agreement seems to mark “a significant progress in the US debt ceiling situation,” said Jun Rong Yeap, an analyst at IG. China and Japan are the largest foreign holders of American debt, owning a combined $2 trillion in US Treasuries.

☆ Don’t expect the stock markets to rejoice about the debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

New York CNN —You’d expect the stock market to surge after the White House and House Republicans reached a tentative deal to raise the debt ceiling, But markets may have other plans. The stock market, for the most part, has been ignoring the serious risks associated with the United States defaulting on its debt. Even if Congress passes a bill to raise the debt ceiling and President Joe Biden signs it, it could take months before stocks and other financial markets move on. That will temporarily suck some liquidity out of the stock market, he said. A look back at the 2011 debt ceiling crisisIn 2011, lawmakers came to an agreement on raising the debt limit just hours before the United States would have defaulted.

☆ Breakingviews: Biden gives little, gets less in debt ceiling deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

WASHINGTON, May 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - For President Joe Biden, a debt-ceiling victory comes with a bittersweet taste. The White House and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached a tentative deal for lifting the government’s borrowing limit on Saturday night. After months of negotiation, Biden and McCarthy reached an agreement just nine days before U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the country was expected to run out of cash. The deal lifts the debt ceiling about $4 trillion from its current level of $31.4 trillion, extending the government’s borrowing power for two more years. Follow @BenWinck on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe Biden administration and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy reached an agreement in principle on May 27 for raising the U.S. government’s debt ceiling.

☆ Biden and McCarthy race to sell their debt ceiling deal to lawmakers before the government runs out of money
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Kevin Liptak | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

“No one claiming to be a conservative could justify a YES vote,” wrote Rep. Bob Good, Republican of Virginia, on Twitter. Biden spoke Saturday with the top Democrat in the House, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, who will be responsible for marshaling his members. He said he hopes the House will vote as soon as Wednesday, allowing precious little time for each party’s leaders to secure sufficient support. As part of the deal, the White House has also appeared to have made concessions to House Republican negotiators on work requirements for people receiving food stamps. The current work requirement for the program, formally called the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP, only applies to certain adults between the ages 18-49.

☆ Biden, GOP reach debt-ceiling deal, now Congress must approve it to prevent calamitous default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The compromise announced late Saturday risks angering both Democratic and Republican lawmakers as they begin to unpack the concessions. Negotiators agreed to some Republican demands for increased work requirements for recipients of food stamps that House Democrats had called a nonstarter. The agreement would raise the age for existing work requirements on able-bodied adults, from 49 to 54, without children. Lifting he nation's debt limit, now at $31 trillion, allows more borrowing to pay the nation's already incurred bills. Biden has said the work requirements for Medicaid would be a nonstarter.

"Things are looking good," Biden told reporters. "I'm hopeful," said McHenry, one of House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy's lead negotiators with the White House. Negotiators are discussing a deal that would lift the limit for two years, but remain at odds over whether to stiffen work requirements for some anti-poverty programs. WORK REQUIREMENTS IN DISPUTEThe safety-net programs remained a sticking point. Biden in particular has resisted the work requirements for Medicaid, which covered 85 million Americans as of January.

☆ Debt ceiling crisis: How a US default would ricochet around the world
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

But if it does, it could make the 2008 global financial crisis feel like a walk in the park. The consequences are frightful.”The belief that America’s government will pay its creditors on time underpins the smooth functioning of the global financial system. During the 2011 standoff over raising the US debt ceiling, the S&P 500 index of leading US shares plunged more than 15%. “It’s unclear in a Treasury default crisis whether the Fed could do enough even with the types of efforts it deployed in March 2020,” Obstfeld said. “A default would be a message to investors all around the world of eroding confidence in America,” he added.

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden said he was "very optimistic" on Friday about reaching a compromise deal with House Republicans to raise the debt ceiling before a June 5 deadline announced earlier in the day. "I hope we'll have some clear evidence tonight, before the clock strikes twelve, that we have a deal," Biden told reporters on the South Lawn of the White House shortly after 6:00 p.m. White House and congressional negotiators were closing in on a deal to raise the debt ceiling for two years, officials familiar with the negotiations told CNBC earlier in the day Friday. "I'm hopeful we'll know by tonight whether we are going to be able to have a deal," Biden said. Under a proposal that was on the table Friday, House Republicans would achieve at least two of their highest priorities in exchange for voting to raise the debt ceiling.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, hadn't, Janet Yellen, Garret Graves of Organizations: WASHINGTON, House Republicans, CNBC, Republican, Capitol, Treasury, Republicans, Internal Revenue Service, Pentagon Locations: White, U.S, Garret Graves of Louisiana

☆ Treasury's Yellen says June 5 is last date for debt ceiling to be raised
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Friday set a deadline for raising the federal debt limit, saying the government would default if Congress does not increase the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling by June 5. Yellen had previously said a default could potentially happen as early as June 1, but is now characterizing June 5 as the precise deadline. "We now estimate that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy the government’s obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5," she wrote. Democratic and Republican negotiators appeared within reach of a deal on Friday but still struggled to resolve thorny differences. In a letter to Congress, Yellen said her department will make more than $130 billion of scheduled payments in the first two days in June, including to veterans and Social Security and Medicare recipients.

☆ The tech trade is back, driven by A.I. craze and prospect of a less aggressive Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Ari Levy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Patrick T. Fallon | Bloomberg | Getty Imageswatch nowTo start the year, the main theme in tech was layoffs and cost cuts. But investors have shifted their focus to AI now that companies are showcasing real-world applications of the long-hyped technology. Google, meanwhile, is touting its rival AI model at every opportunity, and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg would much rather tell shareholders about his company's AI advancements than the company's money-bleeding metaverse efforts. The chipmaker, known best for its graphics processing units (GPUs) that power advanced video games, is riding the AI wave. The next three top gainers in the index are also tech companies: Meta, Advanced Micro Devices and Salesforce .

☆ New debt deadline: Yellen says U.S. has until June 5 to reach debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew debt deadline: Yellen says U.S. has until June 5 to reach debt dealHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC. Gregory Branch, Veritas Financial Group; Ben White, chief economic correspondent at Politico; and Mick Mulvaney, former White House Chief of Staff, join the show to discuss the ongoing debt ceiling talks.

Persons: Yellen, Brian Sullivan, “, Gregory Branch, Ben White, Mick Mulvaney Organizations: CNBC, Veritas Financial, Politico, White, Staff

☆ Treasury Expects to Run Out of Cash by June 5
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Alan Rappeport | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The letter provided the most precise date yet for when the United States is expected to run out of cash. Ms. Yellen’s letter comes as the White House and House Republicans have been racing to reach a deal that would lift the nation’s $31.4 trillion borrowing cap and prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt. The Treasury Department hit its statutory debt limit on Jan. 19 and has been employing accounting maneuvers — known as “extraordinary measures” — to ensure the United States can continue paying its bills on time. On Friday evening, President Biden expressed hope that an agreement could soon be clinched. I’m very optimistic,” Mr. Biden said as he departed the White House for Camp David, adding, “I’m hopeful we’ll know by tonight whether we are going to be able to have a deal.”

☆ Behind the Scenes: Midnight Calls and Marathon Meetings, Night After Night
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Katie Rogers | Luke Broadwater | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

On Capitol Hill, the delicate talks to avert default on the government’s debts this week took place over middle-of-the-night video calls, marathon meetings in an opulent conference room, and at least one early morning bike ride. At the White House, evening tour groups were diverted from the West Wing because President Biden was in the Oval Office with his chief of staff and other advisers, who needed his quick feedback. But all of the talking has so far failed to produce a deal to raise the country’s debt limit, raising fears of a potentially catastrophic default that could upend financial markets, spike interest rates and end in a downgrade of the nation’s credit. The negotiators got a bit of breathing room on Friday afternoon, when Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said the United States could run out of money to pay its bills on time by June 5 — a slight extension from the previous forecast of as early as June 1.

☆ Treasury now says it could run out of money June 5, buying time for debt ceiling talks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Christina Wilkie | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON — Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that the United States will likely have enough reserves to push off a potential debt default until June 5. "We now estimate that Treasury will have insufficient resources to satisfy the government's obligations if Congress has not raised or suspended the debt limit by June 5," Yellen wrote in a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. On Wednesday, the Fitch credit rating agency announced it had placed the United States' triple-A status on "rating watch negative." On Friday, in a preliminary International Monetary Fund annual assessment of the United States, officials wrote that "brinkmanship over the federal debt ceiling could create a further, entirely avoidable systemic risk to both the U.S. and the global economy." Should the United States technically default, even for just a few days, it could drive up interest rates and undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar.

☆ Janet Yellen isn't 'credible' and the US won't default on its debt on June 1, Republican congressman says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( Ethan Dodd | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Congress can't raise the debt ceiling and avoid economic crisis because Republicans want spending cuts. Janet Yellen said Treasury may not be able to delay a default past June 1. To avoid a default, Congress has to raise the debt ceiling, and Republicans won't do it unless Democrats agree to spending cuts. Janet Yellen was wrong on having interest rates too low for far too long. Asked about his alternative date, Donalds said, "Listen, I'm not the Treasury Secretary.

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