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☆ VIEW U.S. consumer prices fall in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures fall after the inflation data BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields slid across the board. But I will note that it is an especially volatile period, which is not atypical for inflection points in market expectations and the broader macro outlook." BRIAN KLIMKE, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, LOS ANGELES"It (the report) came in as expected, but investors were somewhat optimistic leading into this reading, so that they were buying the rumor and selling the new.

☆ Instant View: U.S. consumer prices fall in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Jan 12 (Reuters) - U.S consumer prices unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and other goods, suggesting that inflation was now on a sustained downward trend. The consumer price index dipped 0.1% last month after gaining 0.1% in November, the Labor Department said on Thursday. MARKET REACTION:STOCKS: U.S. stock index futures fall after the inflation dataBONDS: U.S. Treasury yields slid across the board.FOREX: The dollar fell against the euro and yen. But I will note that it is an especially volatile period, which is not atypical for inflection points in market expectations and the broader macro outlook." BRIAN KLIMKE, INVESTMENT DIRECTOR, CETERA INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LLC, LOS ANGELES"It (the report) came in as expected, but investors were somewhat optimistic leading into this reading, so that they were buying the rumor and selling the new.

☆ Lululemon is everywhere and that's a problem
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Danni Santana | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

At the ICR conference, Lululemon said it now expects gross margin to be down 90-110 basis points. At the ICR conference Monday, Lululemon said it now expects gross margin to be down 90-110 basis points, compared to small gains expected late last year. Lululemon does not break out Mirror sales in quarterly earnings. Adidas, as an example, expects gross margin to be down 900 basis points following its split from Ye, he wrote in a note Monday. "Inventory growth has likely peaked, which should alleviate gross margin pressure in FY23," he said.

☆ Global stocks rally to near 4-week highs, oil rises on hopes of 'soft landing'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The gains were broad across equity markets, with Europe's STOXX 600 near a one-month high (.STOXX) and emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) up 2.4% on the day. Asian stocks rose after China reopened its borders, bolstering the outlook for the global economy. The U.S. dollar index was down around 0.8%, near its lowest in seven months after it dropped 1.2% on Friday . In bond markets, European government bond yields rose, in a reversal after the previous weeks' sharp falls. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.

☆ Canada posts hefty job gains, raising chances of another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.

☆ Why Linde shares dropped so much this week but why we still like it
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Jeff Marks | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It's been a tough start to 2023 for shareholders of Linde (LIN). Russia freezing Linde assets First off, while U.S. markets were closed to observe the New Year holiday, Reuters reported Monday that a Russian court froze about $488 million of Linde assets. The legal action was at the request of a Russian joint venture that Linde stopped working on. Long story short, Linde was prepaid $1.8 billion for work on a project, and Russian energy giant Gazprom is suing Linde to get that money back. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Linde suspended business in Russia and announced plans to scale back operations.

☆ Criticism of Lula's economic plans mounts as Brazil markets tank
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Gabriel Araujo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Haddad, a former mayor of Sao Paulo, took office vowing to restore public accounts and with the challenge of presenting a credible fiscal framework after Congress passed a giant Lula social spending package. Markets reacted badly to Haddad's first days in office, especially after Lula ordered a budget-busting extension to a fuel tax exemption which Haddad had publicly opposed. "Haddad learned on his first day in office that he will be a decorative figure, a sort of task worker for President Lula," the conservative daily said in an editorial. On Tuesday, markets were further rattled by remarks by Lula's social security and labour ministers. That was compounded when he said Lula's government would need to review the investor-friendly pension reform approved by Bolsonaro's administration.

☆ Companies Spend Record Amounts on Dividends, Despite Looming Downturn
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Mark Maurer | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +7 min

They usually review their cash flow expectations for at least the next 18 months when determining whether or how much to pay in dividends, Mr. Silverblatt said. Of the S&P 500, 373 companies raised dividends in 2022 through Dec. 15, compared with 353 in 2021, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Five S&P 500 companies decreased their dividend in 2022 through Dec. 15, compared with four in 2021. It paid $7 billion in cash dividends for the year ended Oct. 30, up 13.2% from the prior-year period. Cash and cash equivalents totaled $505.5 million as of Sept. 30, down from $673 million a year earlier, filings showed.

☆ Dollar hits one-week high vs yen, drops against pound
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar touched a one-week high against the yen on Wednesday, boosted by a jump in Treasury yields and investor expectations for a rebound in Chinese growth as COVID-19 curbs loosen. Meanwhile, the pound headed towards its largest one-day rise against the dollar in two weeks as Britain's markets reopened after a long weekend. That day, the yen staged its biggest one-day rally against the dollar in 24 years, closing 3.8% higher, as traders speculated about an eventual unwinding of stimulus. The dollar was up 0.2% against the Japanese yen at 133.785. The Australian dollar rose 1% against its U.S. namesake to $0.680, while the New Zealand dollar strengthened by 1.1% to $0.634.

☆ 3 things that should be worrying Nike
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-26 | by ( Matthew Kish | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

New Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden could reinvigorate the rivalry with Nike. Top of mind with stock pickers: Nike needs to shed inventory and get sales growing more in China. Analysts are also wondering how much competition Nike will face from Adidas under its new CEO Bjørn Gulden. Before the December earnings report, Simeon Siegel, managing director for equity research at BMO Capital Markets, told Insider Nike appeared to be turning a corner in China. Analysts also think new Adidas CEO Bjørn Gulden, who previously worked as CEO of Puma, could reinvigorate the rivalry with Nike.

☆ U.S. consumer spending, inflation cool in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, edged up 0.1%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast consumer spending rising 0.2%. Slowing price increases for some goods also lowered the dollar amount of consumer spending. Consumer spending is being driven by solid wage gains, thanks to a tight labor market, as well as savings accumulated during first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Higher borrowing costs, fast-depleting savings and diminishing household wealth could stifle consumer spending, and tip the economy into recession next year.

☆ ‘The reshoring craze is real’ — These companies should benefit, experts say
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

A lot has been said about reshoring, as companies look to bring manufacturing back to their home countries, particularly the U.S. Reshoring is essentially companies returning operations to their original country from overseas. "The reshoring craze is real, especially as you continue to hear more and more about this general theme of deglobalization," he said. "They sell into the construction of the factory, they sell into the equipment of the factory, the automation of the factory." The company's equipment is needed for big semiconductor manufacturing plants as companies test chips as they are produced, Snyder said.

October growth slowed compared with September's 0.2% gain, which was an upward revision from a previously reported 0.1% increase, Statistics Canada said. "The real question will be how things shake out during the first half of next year, when aggressive Bank of Canada rate hikes start to more fully work their way through the system," Kavcic said. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November, but was slightly higher than had been expected because of broad-based price pressures, according to data from earlier this week, leaving the door open for another rate increase in January. The bank has said it will be more data-dependent in setting the policy rate. November's preliminary estimate showing a 0.1% monthly increase in GDP was driven by gains in utilities and wholesale trade, Statscan said.

OTTAWA, Dec 21 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline price rose more slowly, data showed on Wednesday, leaving the door open for another interest rate increase in January. Consumer prices rose 0.1% from October, Statistics Canada said, above analysts' expectations they would be flat. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 5.4% versus a 5.3% gain in October. "Today's data will leave the door open to a 25 basis point rate hike in November," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. Gasoline prices rose 13.7% after gaining 17.8% in October, largely driven by price declines in Western Canada, Statscan said.

☆ Canada October retail sales up 1.4% on gasoline, seen down 0.5% in November
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

October retail sales gained the most in five months, though it was a notch lower than the 1.5% rise forecast by analysts. September's decline was revised downward a decimal point to 0.6% from a previously reported drop of 0.5%, Statistics Canada said. October sales were driven mostly by price increases at gasoline stations and in food and beverage, Statistics Canada said. In volume terms, retail sales were flat. "Retail sales posted a solid increase in October, though the gain came from higher prices, particularly at gasoline stations," Shelly Kaushik, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

☆ BMO upgrades this gene-editing play, sees shares returning 65% next year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

BMO Capital Markets sees a big year ahead for biotech company Beam Therapeutics . Analyst Kostas Biliouris upgraded shares to outperform from market perform, saying he expects updates next year on a key partnership will drive upside for the gene-editing technology company. Beam has a partnership with biotech company Verve Therapeutics , which is using Beam's base editing technology for its VERVE-101 program. "We believe these catalysts will have a direct readthrough on BEAM, each driving a ~10%+ upside (stock moves here)." Shares of Beam Therapeutics are down more than 49% in 2022, while Verve Therapeutics is off by about 51%.

☆ Nike's gross margins will get better early next year, says BMO's Simeon Siegel
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNike's gross margins will get better early next year, says BMO's Simeon SiegelSimeon Siegel, BMO Capital Markets senior retail analyst, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Nike's earnings following the company's announcement.

The central bank sets short-term interest rates but longer-term borrowing costs, such as for businesses and some mortgage rates, are determined by the bond market. Canadian bond yields, like U.S. bond yields, have tumbled since October as investors anticipate that the tightening cycle is nearing an end and the central bank is poised to shift to cutting rates next year. Bond yields, along with other measures, such as the strength of the stock market and the currency, help determine financial conditions, or the availability of funding in the economy. Since October, Canada's 5-year yield has tumbled nearly 100 basis points and the Toronto stock market (.GSPTSE) has rallied 11%. "Otherwise, we could be on an inflation and rates roller-coaster for years to come that is biased toward higher average inflation."

☆ Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and 9 other top Wall Street firms share their predictions for stocks and the economy in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Here are 11 top investment firms' views on what's next for stocks and the economy in 2023. Heading into this year, the lowest S&P 500 price target among top investment firms was 4,400, which was set by long-time bear Mike Wilson of Morgan Stanley. Insider surveyed 11 top investment firms and found that five see US stocks rising in 2023 from mid-December levels: Deutsche Bank, Oppenheimer, BMO Capital Markets, JPMorgan, and Credit Suisse. The firms had 2023 year-end S&P 500 price outlooks ranging from 4,500 (a 12.5% gain from the current level of about 4,000) to as low as 3,400 (a 15% loss). Below is the S&P 500 forecast, stock market outlook, and economic outlook from each of these major Wall Street firms, ranked from highest S&P 500 price target to lowest.

☆ ECB hikes rates, sees significant increases ahead as it announces plan to shrink balance sheet
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde attends a hearing of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs in the European Parliament on November 28, 2022 in Brussels, Belgium. The European Central Bank opted for a smaller rate hike at its Thursday meeting, taking its key rate from 1.5% to 2%. It hiked by 75 basis points in October and September and by 50 basis points in July, bringing rates out of negative territory for the first time since 2014. The central bank said it was working on inflation forecasts that had been "significantly revised up," and sees inflation remaining above its 2% target until 2025. However, they noted the ECB was lagging other central banks in reducing its balance sheet and that reinvestments under its pandemic emergency purchase program would continue.

☆ U.S. heading into shallow recession, no respite from rate hikes yet: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Indradip Ghosh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"Unless inflation recedes quickly, the U.S. economy still appears headed for some trouble, though possibly a little later than expected. Although the fed funds rate is expected to peak at 4.75%-5.00% early next year in line with interest rate futures, one-third of economists, 24 of 72, expected it to go higher. A large majority of economists, 35 of 48, said any recession would be short and shallow. Eight said long and shallow, while four said there won't be any recession. The U.S. unemployment rate (USUNR=ECI), which so far has stayed low, was expected to climb from the current 3.7% to 4.9% by early 2024.

☆ November PPI a bit hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Data for October was revised higher to show the PPI gaining 0.3% instead of 0.2% as previously reported. "I don’t believe this changes anything about what the Fed was going to do on Wednesday in terms of raising rates by 50 basis points." The strength of the data was broad based with ex-food, energy, and trade also topping estimates at 0.3% MoM vs. 0.1% MoM anticipated in an acceleration from last month's 0.2% MoM print. If there’s any positive signs it’s the yearly decline.”“Bottom line is inflation is in a down-trend but month-on-month it’s hotter than expected. Then, in March I expect it to be a 25 basis points after which they’ll hold to see how all these rate hikes have played out unless something dramatic happens.

Oil companies are facing faltering prices and Canadian firms are also absorbing an unusually punishing discount for their heavy-grade crude. Net debt represents a company's gross debt minus cash and cash-like assets. It faced an existential threat in 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic crushed oil prices. Canadian producers also absorb a $29 per barrel discount due to distance from U.S. refineries and lower heavy oil demand. If oil prices dip below $65, companies may tighten spending but opt to reduce capital budgets before shareholder returns, Bushell said.

☆ TSX gains as Bank of Canada signals slowdown in rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Shashwat Chauhan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A sign board displaying Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) stock information is seen in Toronto June 23, 2014. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File PhotoDec 7 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index climbed on Wednesday as investors shrugged off potential impact from a oversized rate hike by the Bank of Canada and digested commentary from the central bank hinting at an end to its monetary policy tightening. ET (15:32 GMT), the Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) was up 102.39 points, or 0.51%, at 20,092.56. "Above and beyond the rate hike itself, the bank also indicated that they're going to consider whether future rate hikes are needed," said Douglas Porter, chief economist, BMO Capital Markets. The materials sector (.GSPTTMT), which includes precious and base metal miners, led gains in the index with a climb of 1%.

☆ Bank of Canada set to hike rates, may signal it is near end of tightening cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Steve Scherer | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"It's a close call but we're expecting a 50-basis-point rate hike from the Bank of Canada," Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note. In October, the Bank of Canada forecast that economic growth would stall from the fourth quarter this year through the middle of next year. "Whether or not the Bank of Canada raises rates 25 or 50 basis points, there's a separate question about whether the Bank of Canada can or should really be committing to raise rates further in 2023," said Royce Mendes, head of macro strategy at Desjardins Group. The bank has been providing forward guidance that it "expects that the policy interest rate will need to rise further" since it began this tightening cycle. "At some point, the Bank of Canada is going to be in a position where it's appropriate to just let rates be for a while," Mendes said.

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