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☆ ChatGPT predicts US dollar dominance will give way to a multipolar currency system as China's yuan gains influence
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-11 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Insider asked OpenAI's ChatGPT to weigh in on whether the US dollar or China's yuan would be the world's dominant currency in the future. The chatbot asserted that a "multipolar" system was likely, instead of a system dominated by one or two currencies. ChatGPT also noted the rise of both the euro and yuan in international trade. "Its widespread use, particularly in international trade, gives the US dollar significant influence on the world stage. Meanwhile, ChatGPT's currency prediction contrasts with that of "Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini, who wrote in the Financial Times recently that a bipolar currency system will emerge dominated by the dollar and the yuan.

Feb 10 (Reuters) - U.S. diesel prices have dropped this month and could go lower, analysts said, an unexpected swoon that coincided with the start of a British and European Union ban on Russian fuel imports. Lower prices could ease inflation worries that have occupied investors. A relatively warm winter across the United States and Europe and lower commercial trucking activity lowered demand. “This week was supposed to be when diesel prices blew out to the moon, but that’s not close to what happened,” said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho. Diesel demand by truckers fell off at the end of this year as high inflation impacted U.S. demand for goods.

If China's physical demand does accelerate from March, it may prove Aramco made the correct call in raising its OSP. Saudi crude is sold under long-term contracts that typically allow for variations in the volumes sought by refiners, or offered by Aramco. It's likely that Chinese refiners will first turn to Russian crude if they are boosting imports, as will refiners in India, Asia's second-biggest oil importer. This is set to be surpassed this month, with Kpler tracking seaborne arrivals of Russian fuel oil in China at 6.75 million barrels. It appears that China is already buying more Russian crude and fuel oil.

"Judging by the customs statistics, some of the benefit was captured by refiners in India and China, but the main beneficiaries must be oil shippers, intermediaries and the Russian oil companies," he added. As a further complication, some Russian oil grades, including Pacific grade ESPO, are also worth more than Urals. After decades of low profits or losses, sections of the global shipping industry are enjoying a financial boom from moving Russian oil. A year ago, a similar journey would have cost a seller of Russian oil $0.5-$1.0 million depending on shipping rates. Nayara is 49%-owned by Russian state oil major Rosneft, run by Putin's ally Igor Sechin, meaning some of the profits are indirectly captured by Russia.

☆ Microsoft calls for 'coalition' to improve Congo's informal cobalt mines
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Congo accounts for three-quarters of the world's mined cobalt supply. "In practice it is virtually impossible for them to completely exclude artisanal cobalt, especially when it is sent to smelters and refiners in DRC and China." Microsoft declined to reply to Reuters' questions about the visit or about its strategy on artisanal cobalt. The issues around artisanal mining are an existential threat to the cobalt industry, according to Marina Demidova, head of communications at the Cobalt Institute. Entreprise Generale du Cobalt, a unit of state mining company Gecamines, was granted a monopoly on artisanal cobalt by government decree.

☆ Europe Hopes Its Latest Russian Energy Purge Is Another Nonevent
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-04 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Around 40% of passenger cars in Europe run on diesel, compared with less than 10% in the U.S.Europe is weaning itself off Russian oil and gas in steps. The next phase, targeting oil products such as diesel and jet fuel, could bring fresh snags for buyers and fat profits for refiners. This weekend, the European Union stops importing petroleum products from Russia. This follows a ban on shipments of crude oil that came in early December, and before that, August’s coal embargo.

☆ Exclusive: Indian refiners pay traders in dirhams for Russian oil
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Previous attempts by Indian refiners to pay traders for Russian crude in dirhams through Dubai banks failed, forcing them to switch back to the U.S. currency. Indian refiners typically buy Russian crude from traders at a price that includes delivery to India. An invoice for such a deal seen by Reuters showed traders asking for an average crude price including freight for Urals crude. Indian refiners mostly buy Russian crude from Dubai-based traders including Everest Energy and Litasco, a unit of Russian oil major Lukoil (LKOH.MM). India's oil secretary Pankaj Jain last month said Indian companies were not facing any problems in paying for Russian oil as the latest actions by the West do not impact the trade settlement mechanism.

The trade also provides a way to get Russian oil to market and bring much-needed export earnings to Moscow. "We've been looking at Russian fuel oil since December. China's total fuel oil imports surged to about 1.76 million tonnes in December, highest since September 2021, official customs data showed. Fuel oil imports from blending hubs trend higher"The deep discounts offered are driving the trend as independent refiners are price sensitive. Asia will continue to soak up cheaper Russian (fuel oil) barrels on top of crude," Jamil said.

China's imports were assessed at 10.98 million bpd in January, down from December's 11.37 million bpd and November's 11.42 million bpd. Asia's crude oil imports vs Brent priceFUEL EXPORTSAnother factor is the price of crude oil and the interplay between China's inventories and its exports of refined products. INDIA RECORDIndia, the region's second-biggest importer, saw January arrivals hit a record high of 5.29 million bpd, up from December's 4.78 million bpd. Other major Asian oil buyers also saw gains in January, with South Korea importing 3.11 million bpd, up from 2.85 million bpd in December, while Singapore imported 1.65 million bpd, up from 910,000 bpd. Japan was the exception, with January imports dropping to 2.83 million bpd from December's 2.96 million bpd.

☆ ExxonMobil, Chevron's big cash shows cheap gas isn’t coming back
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Tim Mullaney | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Big oil sees political pushback on buybacksFuel prices at a Chevron gas station in Menlo Park, California, on Thursday, June 9, 2022. In the market, and at the oil companies headquarters, it seems the opinions issued from the White House aren't much of a factor in setting financial priorities. The benchmark now is to spend roughly a third of operating cash flow on capital investment, a third on dividends and a third on stock buybacks. Exxon made $76.8 billion in operating cash flow, invested $18 billion back into the business, spent $14.9 billion on dividends and $15.2 billion in stock purchases, according to its cash flow statement. Oil production is increasing

☆ India earmarks $3.7 bln for state oil companies' energy transition
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Nidhi Verma | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW DELHI, Feb 1 (Reuters) - India said on Wednesday it would provide 300 billion Indian rupees ($3.66 billion) to help state-run oil refiners move towards cleaner energy, a step aimed at helping the country achieve its 2070 net-zero carbon emission target. "We are implementing many programmes for green fuel, green energy, green farming, green mobility, green buildings, and green equipment, and policies for efficient use of energy across various economic sectors," Sitharaman said. The budget also allocated 50 billion rupees for crude purchases for its strategic oil stockpile. India had released oil from its strategic reserves as part of the US-coordinated programme to calm the global oil prices. ($1 = 81.9225 Indian rupees)($1 = 81.8780 Indian rupees)Reporting by Nidhi Verma; Editing by Christina FincherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Marathon Petroleum tops profit estimates on high demand, tight supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( Arunima Kumar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] A Marathon Petroleum banner covers an Andeavor sign outside the El Paso refinery following a closed $23 billion deal after the Ohio-based Marathon bought the Texas-based company, forming one of the largest global refiners in El Paso, Texas, U.S., October 1, 2018. REUTERS/Julio-Cesar Chavez/File PhotoJan 31 (Reuters) - Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N) on Tuesday beat Wall Street expectations for quarterly profit as its margins soared amid tight supplies and high demand for refined products. The top U.S. refiner also approved an additional $5 billion in stock repurchase, while rival Phillips 66 (PSX.N) raised its quarterly dividend by 5% to 97 cents per share. Meanwhile, realized refining margins for rival Phillips 66 jumped 65% to $19.73 per barrel in the October to December quarter. Phillips 66 reported an adjusted income of $4 per share, missing analysts' expectations of $4.35 per share.

☆ Marathon Petroleum beats profit estimates on high demand, tight supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] A Marathon Petroleum banner covers an Andeavor sign outside the El Paso refinery following a closed $23 billion deal after the Ohio-based Marathon bought the Texas-based company, forming one of the largest global refiners in El Paso, Texas, U.S., October 1, 2018. REUTERS/Julio-Cesar Chavez/File PhotoCompanies Marathon Petroleum Corp FollowJan 31 (Reuters) - Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N) on Tuesday beat Wall Street expectations for quarterly profit as refining margins soared amid tight supplies and higher demand for refined products. Marathon's crude capacity utilization was about 94%, resulting in total throughput of 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd) for the fourth quarter, which was roughly flat year-over-year. Refining and marketing margin rose to $28.82 per barrel for the reported quarter compared with last year's $15.88 per barrel. Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru Editing by Vinay DwivediOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

WASHINGTON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The White House on Tuesday expressed outrage on Tuesday at Exxon Mobil Corp's record net profit in 2022 of $56 billion, a historical high not just for the company but for the entire Western oil industry. Oil majors are expected to break their own annual records due to high prices and soaring demand, pushing their combined take to near $200 billion. The scale has brought renewed criticism of the oil industry and sparked calls for more countries to levy windfall profit taxes on the companies. A White House statement said Exxon's (XOM.N) profit margin was particularly galling as Americans paid record high prices at the pump. Exxon's CFO Kathryn Mikells responded to growing criticism over the industry's windfall profits and suggested the answer is not increased taxes.

China's diesel exports rose for a second month in December, hitting 2.79 million tonnes, up 32.8% from November's 2.10 million, according to official data released on Jan. 18. This is because they have been ramping up imports of cheaper Russian crude, thus lowering their input costs. China diesel exports vs gasoil crackRUSSIAN DIESELWhile the oil market has largely been able to work around the exit of Russian crude from Europe by re-routing it to Asia, it may be trickier to replicate this with the loss of Russian refined products. Some Asian fuel importers, such as Pakistan, the Philippines and Indonesia, may be happy to buy Russian fuel, but the discounts would have to be steep. What's more likely is that Asia's diesel and gasoline markets tighten as the EU ban on Russian fuel comes into effect.

☆ Analysis: India's EV dawn fans expectations fuel demand may peak early
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Mohi Narayan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Currently, around 90% of Indian petrochemical demand is met by China, he said, so a shift by Indian refiners towards domestic chemical needs could dramatically change supply dynamics. Indian refiners are investing billions of dollars to raise petrochemical capacity. Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), the country's top refiner, is raising petrochemical capacity at its Panipat refinery by 13% and building new plants linked to its Paradip and Gujarat refineries. India's state refiners, which dominate fuel retailers, plan to set up EV charging facilities at more than 22,000 fuel stations and highways by 2024. About 40% of India's fuel demand is for diesel, which is mostly used by trucks.

☆ India's sunoil imports rise to record as Russia-Ukraine fight for market share
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Rajendra Jadhav | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 27 (Reuters) - India's January sunflower oil imports are set to surge to a record 473,000 tonnes, nearly triple average monthly imports as top exporters Russia and Ukraine seek to reduce stockpiles, industry officials told Reuters. The import surge will help key Black Sea producing countries in reducing their stocks, but could dampen India's palm oil imports and weigh on Malaysian palm oil prices . The deal allowed exporters to move stuck stockpiles and sign new contracts as well, said Sandeep Bajoria, president of the International Sunflower Oil Association. India's monthly sunoil imports averaged around 161,000 tonnes in 2021/22 marketing year ended on Oct. 31. "Sunflower imports would reduce palm oil purchases this quarter.

Jet fuel this year will be the largest source of oil demand growth, says the International Energy Agency, which monitors energy consumption. In Singapore, jet fuel is trading around $122.30 per barrel, up 14% in the last two weeks. "Overall, we expect jet demand to increase significantly this year," he told an earnings call on Thursday, as air travel continues to rise. U.S. jet fuel inventories ended last year at 34 million barrels, the lowest since 1990, according to U.S. government data. Total jet fuel supplied, a proxy for demand, stood at 1.56 million barrels per day in 2022, the highest since 2019.

☆ Valero Can Keep Pumping Profits
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jinjoo Lee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Valero’s profit per barrel of refining throughput by one metric was more than twice what it was prepandemic. The good times aren’t over for U.S. oil refiners. Refining giant Valero Energy’s results released Thursday showed how exceptional 2022 was for the sector, especially in the U.S. On an annual basis, the company made a gross profit of $21.82 per barrel of refining throughput, more than two times what it commanded prepandemic.

☆ Valero profit beats estimates on higher fuel demand, tight supplies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] The Valero refinery next to the Houston Ship Channel is seen in Houston, Texas, U.S., May 5, 2019. REUTERS/Loren Elliott/File PhotoCompanies Valero Energy Corp FollowJan 26 (Reuters) - Valero Energy Corp (VLO.N) zoomed passed Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit on Thursday, wrapping up the refiner's best year on record, boosted by higher demand for fuel and healthy refining margins as crude supplies remained tight. U.S. refineries operated at record levels last year, aided by a quick recovery in domestic sales and strong exports demand following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Valero refineries operated at 97% capacity utilization rate in the fourth quarter, the highest since 2018. Valero Energy, the second-largest U.S. refiner by capacity, said quarterly refining throughput volumes averaged 3.04 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly above the year-ago quarter.

☆ Russia is selling record amounts of crude oil to India to plug the gap in its energy exports after the EU ban
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russia is selling record amounts of crude oil to India to plug its shortfalls from the EU oil ban, according to Vortexa. Indian imports hit a record 1.2 million barrels a day in December, and 1.3 million barrels a day in the first two weeks of January. The energy analytics firm said Russia handed off 1.2 million barrels a day of its crude oil to India in December, notching a new record high. Russian crude now accounts for 60% of India's oil imports, compared to 48% in December. Oil markets could be further disrupted when the EU bans Russian oil products, including diesel and fuel oil, on February 5.

Jan 25 (Reuters) - U.S. crude inventories rose last week as demand for fuels tapered off, and while the increase was less than expected, crude stocks reached the highest level since June 2021, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday. U.S. crude futures rose by more than $1 to a session high of $81.23 on Wednesday morning, before paring gains. Total product supplied, a proxy for fuel demand, fell 867,000 barrels per day to 19.4 million bpd, EIA data showed. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub (USOICC=ECI) rose by 4.3 million barrels in the last week, the EIA said. Net U.S. crude imports (USOICI=ECI) fell by 1.79 million barrels per day, the EIA said.

☆ U.S. oil refining margins hit 3-month high as plant outages rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Shariq Khan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Jan 24 (Reuters) - U.S. oil refining margins on Tuesday hit a three-month high and are likely headed higher, analysts said, as unplanned refinery outages weigh on already-tight fuel supplies. The outages have pushed up gasoline prices in Texas and Oklahoma this year ahead of what is expected to be a heavier than usual turnaround season for refineries. The rising prices and margins are unusual for this time of year, when travel falls. Average gasoline prices in Texas hit about $3.07 a gallon on Tuesday, up almost 44 cents from a month ago, according to the AAA motor group. A diesel producing unit at PBF Energy's (PBF.N) Chalmette, Louisiana, refinery was shut following a fire on Saturday.

☆ Credit Suisse's stock chief says investors are piling into all the wrong sectors as they anticipate a recession that won't come. He shares 3 areas of the market will deliver the best returns instead.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

As such, the Credit Suisse stock chief thinks investors are looking to the wrong sectors for returns. The consumer discretionary, industrials, and energy sectors are the best places to be, he said. 3 places to invest for a non-recessionary scenarioInstead of defensive sectors, three areas of the market Golub is overweight on include the consumer discretionary sector, the industrials sector, and the energy sector. When it comes to industrials, Golub said there is a "re-stocking" happening, and that supply chains are easing. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is one way to gain exposure to the energy sector.

REUTERS/StringerLONDON, Jan 24 (Reuters) - China’s exports of refined petroleum products, especially diesel, surged in the final two months of 2022, relieving some of the global shortage caused by unusually low exports since the middle of 2021. China’s exports were below normal for 16 months from July 2021 through October 2022 with a cumulative shortfall relative to the previous trend of 21 million tonnes or 167 million barrels. The downturn was concentrated in diesel with a cumulative shortfall of around 17 million tonnes or 128 million barrels (“Monthly bulletin”, GAC, January 18). Diesel exports accelerated to a near-record 2.8 million tonnes in December, from just 1.1 million tonnes in October, narrowing the deficit since mid-2021 to less than 16 million tonnes or 117 million barrels. Related columns:- China’s diesel exports recover but not enough to reverse global shortage (Reuters, November 9)- Diesel’s gloomy message for the global economy (Reuters, October 14)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.

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