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2 oil consumer, while Libya resumed production on the weekend. "The GDP came in below expectations, so will do little to ease concerns over the Chinese economy," said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities research. "Apparent oil demand grew at a strong pace year on year, but the market seems focused on the headline (GDP) numbers," Patterson said. "They are stockpiling crude at low prices, and waiting for recession to hit the West before going full on with stimulus," Grasso said. Reporting by Florence Tan and Mohi Narayan; Editing by Tom Hogue and Sonali PaulOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: China's, Warren Patterson, ING's, Patterson, Stefano Grasso, Grasso, El, Vandana Hari, Hari, Florence Tan, Mohi Narayan, Tom Hogue, Sonali Paul Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, National Bureau, Statistics, Shell, Vanda Insights, Thomson Locations: China, Libya, U.S, Beijing, 8VantEdge, Singapore, Nigerian, Russia, Moscow, Saudi Arabia
On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was well below the forecast for growth of 7.3%. "The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. The latest data raises the risk of China missing its modest 5% growth target for 2023, some economists say. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. So I think this does raise greater urgency for more policy support soon."
Persons: Carol Kong, Alvin Tan, Harry Murphy Cruise, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Analysts, Authorities, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, stoke, Moody’s, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Sydney, China, Asia, Singapore
2 oil consumer as Libya resumed production over the weekend. "The GDP came in below expectations, so will do little to ease concerns over the Chinese economy," said Warren Patterson, ING's head of commodities research. "Apparent oil demand grew at a strong pace year on year, but the market seems focused on the headline (GDP) numbers," Patterson said. "They are stockpiling crude at low prices, and waiting for recession to hit the West, before going full on with stimulus," Grasso said. In Russia, oil exports from western ports are set to fall by some 100,000-200,000 bpd next month from July, a sign Moscow is making good on a pledge for fresh supply cuts in tandem with OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, two sources said on Friday.
Persons: Warren Patterson, ING's, Patterson, Stefano Grasso, Grasso, El, Florence Tan, Sonali Paul, Tom Hogue Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, National Bureau, Statistics, Shell, Thomson Locations: China, SINGAPORE, Libya, U.S, Beijing, 8VantEdge, Singapore, Nigerian, Russia, Moscow, Saudi Arabia
"Consumers are not spending, mainly driven by the bleak outlook for the property market. Disappointing retail numbers and property market sales show it doesn't seem that the boost from rate cuts is sufficient. ..the property market is beginning another slowdown - the government will have to come up with more stimulus for property." "Nonetheless, we think more stimulus is required to stabilise and restore confidence in the property market." ZHIWEI ZHANG, CHIEF ECONOMIST, PINPOINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, HONG KONG"Nominal GDP growth turns out to be lower than real GDP growth in Q2, the first time since comparable data are available in Q4 2016.
Persons: CHRISTOPHER WONG, LOUIS KUIJS, CAROL KONG, XING ZHAOPENG, KEN CHEUNG, ALVIN TAN, VISHNU VARATHAN, MARCO SUN, CHEN, TONY SYCAMORE, ZHIWEI ZHANG, JING LIU Organizations: Gross, National Bureau, Statistics, Shanghai, NBS, BANK OF, ANZ, MIZUHO BANK, OF, OF ASIA FX, RBC, MUFG BANK, IG, SYDNEY, Friday's, BANK OF SINGAPORE, HSBC, stoke, Authorities, Reuters, U.S, Thomson Locations: U.S, SINGAPORE, ASIA, HONG KONG, SYDNEY, CHINA, SHANGHAI, OF ASIA, China
Property sales by floor area declined 28.1% year-on-year, extending a 19.7% fall in May, according to Reuters calculations based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). For June, property investment totaled to 1.2849 trillion yuan, falling 20.6% from a year earlier after a 21.5% drop in May, according to Reuters calculations. For January-June, property sales by floor area were down 5.3% year-on-year compared with a 0.9% fall in the first five months. Property investment fell 7.9% in the first six months, after slumping 7.2% in January-May from the same period a year earlier. New construction starts measured by floor area fell 24.3% year-on-year, after a 22.6% drop in the first five months.
Persons: Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Authorities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING
"The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong, economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said. Most analysts say policymakers are likely to dole out modest supportive measures, instead of embracing any aggressive stimulus due to limited room and worries of growing debt risks, analysts said. For June alone, China's retail sales grew 3.1%, slowing sharply from a 12.7% jump in May, the data showed. Industrial output growth unexpectedly quickened to 4.4% last month from 3.5% seen in May, but demand remains lukewarm amid a bumpy post-COVID economic recovery.
Persons: Carol Kong, Alvin Tan, Kevin Yao, Ellen Zhang, Joe Cash, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Authorities, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, stoke, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Shanghai, Sydney, China, Asia, Singapore
China's June industrial output rises 4.4%, retail sales up 3.1%
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
BEIJING, July 17 (Reuters) - China's industrial output grew 4.4% in June from a year earlier, unexpectedly accelerating from 3.5% seen in May, but demand remains lukewarm amid a bumpy post-COVID economic recovery. The data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday came above expectations for a 2.7% increase in a Reuters poll of analysts. Retail sales grew 3.1% in June, slowing from a 12.7% jump in May. Fixed asset investment expanded 3.8% in the first six months of 2023 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 3.5% rise. Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Joe Cash, Ella Cao, Ellen Zhang, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Retail, Analysts, Thomson Locations: BEIJING
BEIJING — China said Monday that second-quarter gross domestic product grew by 6.3% from a year ago, missing expectations. The unemployment rate among young people ages 16 to 24 was 21.3% in June, a new record. The 6.3% GDP print for the second quarter marked a 0.8% pace of growth from the first quarter, slower than the 2.2% quarter-on-quarter pace recorded in the first three months of the year. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a 7.3% increase in the second quarter GDP. When asked about the outlook for the second half, spokesperson Fu said he expected real estate investment would remain low for the near future.
Persons: Fu Linghui, Fu Organizations: Railway, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Information, Investment Locations: Guangzhou, BEIJING — China, China, Beijing
It's official: China's economy is faltering
  + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Its economy grew 6.3% over the second quarter, falling short of forecasters' expectations. Retail sales growth slowed to 3.1% in June, down from 12.7% the previous month. Beijing finally lifted its harsh zero-COVID restrictions at the end of 2022, sparking hopes of a rapid recovery for the world's second-largest economy. "The pandemic hangover is plaguing China's recovery, Moody's Analytics economist Harry Murphy Cruise said in a research note. China's ruling Politburo is set to meet later this month, and economists expect it to discuss potentially bringing in a stimulus package to boost the country's sputtering growth.
Persons: China's, China –, Harry Murphy Cruise, Mark Haefele Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Beijing, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, CSI, Shanghai, People's Bank of Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, Beijing, People's Bank of China
Property investment in China slid nearly 8% in the first half of the year, official data showed Monday, marking a deepening decline for a sector that accounts for up to a quarter of the world's second-largest economy. The country's property sector is struggling to emerge from a credit crisis after the government cracked down on its debt levels in August 2020. Years of exuberant growth has led to the construction of ghost towns where supply outstrip demand, as developers look to capitalize on the desire for home ownership and property investment. The 7.9% drop in investment for January to June was steeper than the 7.2% drop reported for January to May. China second-quarter growth came in at 6.3% from a year before and 0.8% from the quarter before, underwhelming market expectations yet again.
Persons: China's, China Vanke, Dan Wang, CNBC's Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, CNBC, Hang Seng Bank Locations: China
SYDNEY, July 16 (Reuters) - Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Sunday that he expected the nation's jobless rate to lift from near a 48-year low on the back of higher interest rates and slowing global growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has said the jobless rate would need to rise to about 4.5% - still well below pre-pandemic levels - to bring the economy back into balance. Unemployment was expected to lift "a bit as the economy slows as a consequence of higher interest rates and global economic uncertainty", Chalmers said ahead of attending a meeting of Group of 20 (G20) finance ministers and central bankers in India with outgoing RBA Governor Philip Lowe. The RBA this month kept the cash rate at an 11-year high of 4.10%, having lifted rates by 400 basis points since May last year, but warned that further tightening might be needed. Reporting by Sam McKeith in Sydney; Editing by Jamie FreedOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Jim Chalmers, Chalmers, Philip Lowe, Sam McKeith, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Bank, Treasury, Australian Broadcasting Corp, Reserve Bank of Australia, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Thomson Locations: India, Sydney
China GDP: Economy grows 6.3% in Q2 compared with low base
  + stars: | 2023-07-16 | by ( Laura He | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
Hong Kong CNN —China’s economy expanded by 6.3% in the second quarter from a year ago because of a low base, with momentum slowing following a strong reopening in the first quarter. Compared to the first quarter, gross domestic product grew just 0.8% from April to June, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Last year, harsh Covid-19 lockdowns wreaked havoc in the world’s second largest economy, including in the financial hub of Shanghai. The economy rebounded strongly In the first quarter after the lifting of pandemic restrictions, with GDP growing at 4.5%. Youth unemployment hit another record high, with the jobless rate for those ages 16 to 24 reaching 21.3% in June.
Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters Locations: Hong Kong, Shanghai, Beijing
China’s economy is flashing many warning signs. Weak spending is pushing China close to a dangerous trend known as deflation: Consumer prices are flat, and wholesale prices paid by companies are actually falling. “It’s not a strong recovery; the economy is quite weak,” said Wang Dan, the chief economist at Hang Seng Bank China. Some companies are also moving supply chains out of China, which will have a longer-lasting effect on exports, Mr. Fattal said. But a huge accumulation of debt, particularly at the level of local governments, has made that hard to do.
Persons: , Diana Choyleva, “ It’s, Wang Dan, Richard Fattal, Fattal, Lou Jiwei, Cui Dongshu, Fu Linghui, Lou, Ms, Wang, Li You Organizations: Enodo, National Bureau, Statistics, Investment, Hang Seng Bank China, National Bureau of Statistics, Administration, Customs, Companies, Workers, China, China Passenger Car Association Locations: Shanghai, London, China, Baoding, United States, Europe
Prices were also unchanged from a year earlier, retreating from a 0.1% increase in May. The property sector, accounting for one-fourth of activity in the world's second-biggest economy, slumped sharply last year as developers defaulted on debts and suspended construction of presold housing projects. Markets widely expect more stimulus around a meeting of the ruling Communist Party's Politburo late this month, setting the tone for economic policies in the second half of the year. Thirty-one of the 70 cities monitored by NBS recorded month-on-month rises in new home prices, down from 46 in May. Prices were flat after rising in May in tier-one cities including Beijing and tier-two cities.
Persons: Chen Xiao, Hunter, Chen, Zou Lan, Goldman Sachs, dampening, Qiaoyi Li, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Kim Coghill, William Mallard Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Communist Party's Politburo, Zhuge, NBS, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing
This counters a claim spreading online that misinterprets public data to suggest it shows the vaccines did not prevent deaths. The data shows there were 22,361 COVID deaths in England and Wales in 2022 where the individuals were vaccinated three times. This would be 80%, not 92%, of all COVID deaths for 2022, she said. The 92% pertains to COVID deaths of anyone who ever received a vaccine dose, the spokeswoman added. Moreover, the online claim’s wider suggestion of vaccine ineffectiveness is a misrepresentation of COVID deaths data, she said.
Persons: COVID, , Jeffrey Morris, biostatistics, Read Organizations: National Statistics, Reuters, Triple, Twitter, Facebook, England, Perelman School of Medicine, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania Locations: England, Wales, COVID
Producer prices sank 5.4% in June from a year earlier and slipped 0.8% from a month ago, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This was weaker than a Reuters poll that had expected a 5.0% annual decline, compared with the 4.6% annual decline in May. The annual decline in June was China's ninth consecutive drop and its steepest since December 2015. Monthly consumer price inflation in June was weaker 0.2%, weaker than expectations for flat growth and tracking the 0.2% decline in May. But this would still be soft and won't constrain the People's Bank of China's ability to loosen policy further."
Persons: Zhichun Huang, , Huang, PBOC Organizations: Visual China, Getty, National Bureau of Statistics, Reuters, Bank, People's Bank of China Locations: China, Ukraine
China PPI: Factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +2 min
China’s factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in over seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. That was the slowest pace since February 2021 and missed the 0.2% rise expected in the Reuters poll. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. Prices rose 2% year-on-year in 2022. Core CPI, excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, rose 0.4% year-on-year, slowing from 0.6% in the previous month.
Persons: China’s, , Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, CPI Locations: China, Beijing
China's factory gate prices fall at fastest pace in 7 years
  + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
BEIJING, July 10 (Reuters) - China's factory-gate prices fell at the fastest pace in seven-and-a-half years in June, while consumer inflation was at its slowest since 2021, adding to the case for policymakers to use more stimulus to revive sluggish demand. The consumer price index (CPI) was unchanged year-on-year, compared with the 0.2% gain seen in May, driven by a faster fall in pork prices. Beijing has set a target for average consumer inflation in 2023 of about 3%. China last month cut policy rates to boost liquidity and vowed to take measures to promote household consumption. Reuters GraphicsFor producer prices, the biggest year-on-year declines were seen in energy, metals and chemicals as domestic and foreign demand weakened.
Persons: Bruce Pang, Jones Lang Lasalle, Pang, Hu Yuexiao, COVID, Liangping Gao, Ella Cao, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, Capital Economics, Reuters Graphics, PPI, Jones, Shanghai Securities, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, Beijing, China
SYDNEY, July 5 (Reuters) - The Australian government will announce this month whether it would reappoint Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Philip Lowe or replace him. * Michele Bullock, 60, became the first female Deputy Governor of the RBA when she was appointed in the role in April 2022. She studied economics at the University of New England and a masters from the London School of Economics. He studied economics at Sydney University, and completed a PhD in health economics at the Australian National University. He has PhD degrees in physiology from Cambridge University and in economics from the Australian National University.
Persons: Philip Lowe, Michele Bullock, Bullock, RBA, Steven Kennedy, Kennedy, Kevin Rudd, Julia Gillard, Jenny Wilkinson, David Gruen, Wilkinson, Gruen, Martin Parkinson, Guy Debelle, Fortescue, Australia's, Debelle, Andrew, Carolyn Wilkins, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, University of New, London School of Economics, Treasury, Labor, Sydney University, Australian National University, government's Department of Finance, Parliamentary, ANU, Princeton, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Cambridge University, Macquarie University, Department of Prime, Adelaide University, Fortescue Future Industries, University of Adelaide, MIT, Bank of Canada, Thomson Locations: University of New England
David Gray | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesAustralia's central bank held its official cash rate steady at 4.10% in a closely watched decision Tuesday. Economists were split on expectations ahead of the decision, with 16 out of 31 respondents surveyed by Reuters forecasting a hike of 25 basis points and 15 expecting the central bank to hold. Stocks cheered the move as the central bank said inflation in the economy has "passed its peak." He added that the central bank will continue to closely monitor developments in the global economy, household spending trends and inflation forecasts. The central bank's decision to hold rates steady was to "assess" the effects of the multiple rate hikes so far, according to IG's Australia market analyst Tony Sycamore.
Persons: David Gray, Stocks, RBA, Philip Lowe, Lowe, Tony Sycamore, , Sycamore Organizations: Sydney Opera House, Getty, Reuters, U.S ., Australia Bureau, Statistics, CNBC Locations: Australia
Summary June headline inflation at 3.52% vs 3.64% in Reuters pollCore inflation at 2.58% vs 2.64% in pollSome economists forecast interest rate cut in Q3JAKARTA, July 3 (Reuters) - Indonesia's annual inflation rate in June eased to 3.52%, settling into the central bank's target range for a second straight month, data from the statistics bureau showed on Monday. Headline inflation dropped to its lowest since April 2022 and came in below the 3.64% expected in a Reuters poll and below the 4.00% seen in May. Transportation fares, food prices and rents rose in June, Pudji Ismartini, deputy head of Statistics Indonesia, said in a press conference. The core inflation rate, which strips out government-controlled and volatile food prices, eased to 2.58% in June from 2.66% a month before. The poll had expected 2.64% core inflation.
Persons: Pudji Ismartini, Fakhrul Fulvian, Radhika Rao, Stefanno Sulaiman, Fransiska, Kanupriya Kapoor Organizations: Reuters, Bank, Statistics, BI, Trimegah Securities, DBS, Thomson Locations: JAKARTA, Asia's, Statistics Indonesia
Hot bedding typically involves strangers sharing a bed to save on rent. Similar to hot desking, hot bedding typically entails tenants coordinating shifts for bed use. In a 2021 survey, 3% of international college students living in Australia reported hot bedding. Hot bedding involves sharing a bed with a stranger, usually while sleeping in shifts. Do you participate in hot bedding, either as a tenant or landlord — or know someone who does?
Persons: , Priyanka, she's, Millennials, Nadia Abdullah, Judith Allonby Organizations: Service, SBS News, SBS, Australian Bureau, Statistics, Immigrants, University of Technology Sydney, Washington Post Locations: Australia, Melbourne, India, Sydney, Canadian
China's factory activity grew more slowly in June, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, corroborating official data last week that pointed to stuttering growth in the world's second-largest economy. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index slipped to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May. China's National Bureau of Statistics released data last Friday that showed the country's official manufacturing PMI coming in at 49.0 in June — compared with 48.8 in May. "Problems reflected in June's Caixin China manufacturing PMI, ranging from an increasingly dire job market to rising deflationary pressure and waning optimism, also point to the same conclusion." The Caixin manufacturing PMI surveys around 650 private and state-owned manufacturers that tend to be more export-oriented and located in China's coastal regions, while the official PMI surveys 3,200 companies across China.
Persons: , Wang Zhe Organizations: P Global, National Bureau of Statistics, Caixin Insight, PMI Locations: June's, China
The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. Nomura has been the most bearish, cutting its forecast for growth in China's gross domestic product (GDP) this year to 5.1% from 5.5%. "This indicates the urgent need for a more powerful package of policy measures... to ensure the annual growth targets," he added. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. China's cabinet this month pledged to promote a sustained economic recovery "in a timely manner".
Persons: Rob Carnell, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Nomura, Bruce Pang, Jones Lang LaSalle, Li Qiang, ING's Carnell, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, ING, Capital Economics, PMI, Jones, Reuters, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Asia, Pacific, Tianjin, Beijing
BEIJING, June 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing activity contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a slower pace, an official factory survey showed on Friday, as pressure builds for policymakers to release more stimulus to shore up weak demand. "Economic momentum is still quite weak in China," said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in a note. "It is not clear if the weak economic data would push the government to launch aggressive stimulus measures soon," he added. The official non-manufacturing PMI fell to 53.2 from 54.50 in May, indicating a slowdown in service sector activity and construction. The composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity, dropped to 52.3 from 52.9.
Persons: Zhiwei Zhang, Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Sam Holmes Organizations: . Services, National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China, Tianjin, Beijing
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