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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTight housing supply means crash is unlikely, says Mortgage News Daily's Matthew GrahamMatthew Graham, chief operating officer at Mortgage News Daily, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss a mix of hawkish and dovish commentary coming from the Fed, tightness in home supply stalling a housing value crash, and the risk homebuilder mortgage rate writedowns could have on the overall housing market.
Persons: Matthew Graham Matthew Graham Organizations: Mortgage News
Gold firms on Middle East conflict, spotlight on Powell speech
  + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars arranged at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday, Oct. 13, 2023. Gold prices hovered near a 2-1/2-month high on Thursday as escalating Middle East turmoil buoyed demand for the safe-haven asset, while investors awaited U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech due later in the day. Spot gold was steady at $1,947.45 per ounce by 0318 GMT after hitting its highest since Aug. 1 on Tuesday. Market focus will be on Powell's speech to the Economic Club of New York for more cues on the interest rate path after recent dovish comments from several Fed officials. I don't think there's a whole lot to reprice there and doubt the Fed Chair is going to fight that sentiment," Spivak said.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Ilya Spivak, Joe Biden, Spivak Organizations: Korea Gold Exchange, Federal, Gaza, Economic, of New Locations: Seoul, South Korea, ., Israel, of New York
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Markets slideU.S. stock markets slid on Wednesday as earnings season picked up steam and Treasury yields touched multi-year highs — breaking above 4.9% for the first time since 2007. The electric vehicle maker reported adjusted earnings of 66 cents per share vs. 73 cents per share expected and revenue of $23.35 billion per share vs. $24.1 billion expected. Its earnings came in at $3.73 per share, better than the $3.49 per share expected.
Persons: Elon Musk, Tesla, Stocks Organizations: CNBC, Netflix, Counterpoint Research, JPMorgan, Asset Management, Federal Reserve Locations: Asia, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, China, Apple's
However, Gimber believes Fed cuts in 2024 would likely coincide with declining corporate earnings, creating headwinds for stocks. Analysts are predicting 12% earnings growth for the S & P 500 as a whole in 2024. A further rate cut is also being priced in by November next year, according to data from CME's FedWatch Tool . "You have this disconnect at the moment: 12% earnings growth expected for next year and still the Fed expected to cut multiple times. It's about resilience in equities," Gimber said.
Persons: Hugh Gimber, Gimber, CNBC's, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, Asset Management, , Catalyst, JPMorgan, Treasury Locations: Brazil, Mexico, South Africa
SummaryCompanies Safe-haven buying pushes up goldFocus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on ThursdayOct 18 (Reuters) - Gold rose to a more than two-month peak on Wednesday as the escalating conflict in the Middle East sent investors flocking towards the safe-haven metal. Spot gold increased 1% to $1,950.67 per ounce by 2:48 p.m. "Gold could breach $2,000 in the near-term if there is an escalation of geopolitical conflict. "Gold will pull back if the Middle East situation simmers down, but right now the market place is expecting a further escalation," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $22.87, platinum fell 1.4% to $884.89 and palladium fell 1% to $1,132.61.
Persons: Jerome Powell's, Ryan McIntyre, Jim Wyckoff, Fawad, Ole Hansen, Ashitha, Daksh Grover, Sharon Singleton, Shilpi Majumdar, Shailesh Organizations: East, Sprott Asset Management, Graphics, Kitco Metals, City, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Federal, Saxo Bank, Thomson Locations: Gaza City, Bengaluru
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference after the release of the Fed policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged, at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 20, 2023. The top monetary policymaker will speak at noon ET to the Economic Club of New York at a critical time for the U.S. economy. Inflation numbers have been improving lately, but Treasury yields have been surging, sending conflicting messages about where monetary policy might be headed. Markets largely expect the Fed to stay on hold with rates, but they will be looking to Powell for confirmation and clarification on how officials view both current conditions and longer-term trends. "Really, their ultimate goal is to keep financial conditions tight so inflation comes down," he said.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Luke Tilley, Tilley Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, Economic, of New, Wilmington Trust Locations: Washington ,, of New York, U.S, Wilmington
"Central banks are not trying to hit the CPI targets in the near term," said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, fell 0.1% to 106.13, after dropping 0.4% on Monday. Fed officials will enter into a blackout period on Oct. 21 before the central bank's Oct. 31–Nov. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressure on the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. Australia's central bank considered raising rates at its recent policy meeting but judged there was not enough new information to warrant a move, minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia's Oct. 3 policy meeting showed.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Colin Asher, Asher, Masato Kanda, Valentin Marinov, Marinov, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Sterling, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Shri Navaratnam, Kim Coghill, Gareth Jones Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Bank of Japan, Mizuho, CPI, Swiss, CIB, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Bank of England, New Zealand, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Thomson Locations: Australia's, London, Singapore
European stocks lower ahead of U.S. earnings releases
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The regional Stoxx 600 was down 0.7% as most sectors fell into the red. Only oil and gas stocks were higher, by 1.3%, as crude prices rose sharply. European stock markets were lower Friday afternoon as sentiment falters on fresh U.S. inflation data. However, both U.S. producer price and consumer price index readings have since come in slightly higher than expected. Inflation figures for France and Spain out FridayAsia-Pacific stocks were lower as the consumer price index in China — where the concern is deflation — came in flat, below estimates for 0.2% growth.
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Atlanta, Friday Locations: Israel, U.S, France, Spain, Friday Asia, Pacific, China —
US stocks ended mixed but made weekly gains as investors digested lower interest rates and prepare for third-quarter earnings. The 10-year Treasury yield fell about 25 basis points from its 52-week high this week to 4.63%. A slew of bank earnings kicked off earnings season on Friday, and investors are expecting a rebound in profits. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks were mixed on Friday but ended the week higher as investors digested a decline in interest rates and the start of the third-quarter earnings season. AdvertisementAdvertisementFriday also marked the start of third-quarter earnings season with results from several banks and financial institutions.
Persons: , Patrick Harker, Wells Organizations: Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, Philadelphia Fed, Delaware State Chamber of Commerce, JPMorgan, Citigroup, BlackRock, Dow Jones Locations: Israel, Delaware, Wells Fargo
The 10-year yield on Thursday afternoon stood at about 4.7%, some 18 basis points from the 16-year highs touched last week. “Every time the Fed pauses, yields come down, but the market is not convinced they’re quite there yet." There's plenty of evidence that financial conditions, which reflect the availability of credit in the economy, have tightened in recent months. Credit market spreads have widened as investors demand a higher yield on riskier assets, such as corporate bonds. Fed funds futures show investors pricing in a roughly 15% chance of the central bank's raising rates next month, from around 27% last week.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, , Leslie Falconio, they’re, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Mark Dowding, Goldman Sachs, Edward Al, Hussainy, Neuberger Berman, Jonathan Cohn, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebashvili, Megan Davies, Leslie Adler Organizations: REUTERS, Federal, . Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, Dallas Fed, RBC Global Asset Management, Reuters, Treasury, Columbia, Nasdaq, Nomura Securities International, Thomson
Gold nudges up, heading for best week since March
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold firmed on Friday and was heading for its best week in seven months, amid tensions in the Middle East, and supported by expectations that U.S. interest rates may have peaked as markets assess latest inflation figures. U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar reversed course in Asia hours on Friday, having strengthened in the last session and weighed on gold after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased in September. Before the inflation data, gold had climbed to its highest in two weeks on Thursday, boosted by dovish policy stance by top policymakers who noted that the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields might make further rate hikes less necessary. Investors also assessed the latest inflation data out of China, the biggest gold consumer, which showed consumer prices faltered and factory-gate prices shrank slightly faster than expected in September, with both indicators showing persistent deflationary pressures. Platinum was down 0.3% to $865.99 and palladium fell 0.3% to $1,140.83, both on path for weekly declines.
Persons: Ilya Spivak Organizations: Novosibirsk Refining Plant, Treasury, Hamas, Investors Locations: Novosibirsk, Russia, U.S, Asia, Israel, Palestinian, China
The regional Stoxx 600 index was up 0.5% in early trade with all sectors in the green. The Stoxx closed at a three-week high on Wednesday after notching its best one-day performance in 11 months on Tuesday. Attention will be on the consumer price index released later today. European Central Bank officials also continued to reinforce the message that rates may have peaked. Elsewhere, figures published Thursday morning showed the U.K. economy grew 0.2% month-on-month in August, in line with economists' expectations.
Persons: Mario Centeno Organizations: U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Portugal, CNBC, ECB
A customer hands Indian currency notes to an attendant at a fuel station in Mumbai, India, August 13, 2018. REUTERS/Francis Mascarenhas/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsMUMBAI, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee on Thursday will be boosted by the pullback in oil prices and softer U.S. Treasury yields, while investors wait for the important U.S. inflation data due later in the day. India's inflation data is due after market hours. Meanwhile, headline U.S. consumer inflation index (CPI) is expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month. "Today’s U.S. CPI inflation may surprise like yesterday’s PPI inflation," DBS Research said in a note.
Persons: Francis Mascarenhas, Brent, Nimesh Vora, Mrigank Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Fed, CPI, DBS Research, Brent, Thomson Locations: Mumbai, India, Rights MUMBAI, Asia, U.S
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) gained 0.7% to the highest level in three weeks. Tokyo's Nikkei (.N225) rallied 1.3% for a third straight day, climbing away from its five-month low hit last week. U.S. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday said higher market interest rates may help the Fed slow inflation, and let it "watch and see" if its own policy rate needs to rise again or not. With the long-awaited pivot for the Fed in sight, traders are bracing for the all-important U.S. consumer inflation report later in the day. Stakes are higher because a producer price inflation report came in hotter than expected on Wednesday.
Persons: HSI, Christopher Waller, Waller, Philip Jefferson, Lorie Logan, Alan Ruskin, payrolls, Brent, Stella Qiu, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: SYDNEY, Federal Reserve, Tokyo's Nikkei, Central Huijin Investment, Federal, U.S, Fed, Dallas Fed, Markets, FedTool, Deutsche Bank AG, Saudi, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Asia, Pacific, Japan, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Palestine
The stock market got a boost from that drop in longer-term yields, but it also felt a drag from rising shorter-term yields. Yields were mixed after a report showed inflation at the wholesale level was stronger last month than economists expected. Still, with the U.S. government racking up big deficits that require more borrowing, and buyers in shorter supply, the pressure has been mostly upward on Treasury yields. In energy trading, a further pullback in crude oil prices is helping to take some heat off inflation and support Wall Street. Oil prices have given back much of their strong gains from earlier this week, triggered by fighting in Gaza.
Persons: Sydney's, Hang Seng, ” Anderson Alves, ActivTrades, Rubeela Farooqi, , Gregory Daco, Brent Organizations: TOKYO, Palestinian, Hamas, Nikkei, U.S, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Treasury, “ Fed, EY, Benchmark, New York Mercantile Exchange, Energy, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources Locations: Israel, Hong, Shanghai, U.S . Federal, Lebanon, Iran, U.S, Gaza
TOKYO, Oct 12 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the biggest focus for the Japanese economy now was to ensure that momentum for wage growth stayed in place, with a 3% rise in nominal pay to back efforts to meet the 2% inflation target. "His emphasis on wage growth probably meant the BOJ will retain its easy policy until wage hikes are firmly in place following the labour talks next March." "The biggest focus now is whether this (wage growth) momentum will be maintained or not from now on as well." Noguchi said household inflation expectations are steadily rising, but if wage growth lags behind price hikes, consumers would have no choice but to reduce their spending, as seen lately. "The BOJ's mission for the time being is to realise it (positive growth in real wages) through patient monetary easing," Noguchi said.
Persons: Asahi Noguchi, Noguchi, Yoshimasa Maruyama, Tetsushi, Chang, Ran Kim Organizations: Bank of Japan, Nikko Securities, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Niigata, Tokyo
Morning Bid: Inflation test looms for Fed doves
  + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
For now, the consistent and - for equity investors - very welcome refrain from Fed officials that caution is warranted before further rate rises has drowned out any concerns about data. But just how quickly markets turned at the start of the week shows how quickly they could turn again. Despite the dovish trimmings, the core Fed message remains that rates will rise as far as they have to in order to rein in inflation. Fed regional bank heads Lorie Logan, Susan Collins and Raphael Bostic have the chance to air their views in remarks at separate events today. It's a big day for British data as well, with GDP and industrial production due first thing.
Persons: Kevin Buckland, Lorie Logan, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic, Huw Pill, Andrew Bailey, BoE, Sam Holmes Organizations: Japan's Nikkei, Hong, Reuters, Bank of England, IMF, Bank, U.S . CPI, Thomson Locations: Asia, Washington, Marrakesh
The so-called core PPI increased 2.8% on a year-on-year basis in September after climbing 2.9% in August. Wholesale goods prices increased 0.9%, with a 3.3% rise in the cost of energy products accounting for nearly three-quarters of the increase. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core goods prices edged up 0.1% for the second straight month. This mostly reflected the normalization of supply chains, whose disruption fueled goods inflation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Though core inflation is cooling, higher gasoline and food prices could hamper progress by raising the cost of other goods as well as causing consumers to expect inflation to rise.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Christopher Rupkey, Will Compernolle, Alex McGrath, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao Organizations: El Progreso Market, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Reuters, PPI, Reuters Graphics, Trade, Fed, Thomson Locations: Mount Pleasant, Washington ,, WASHINGTON, New York, East, Greenville , South Carolina
Asia stocks hit 2-week high as Fed talk turns dovish
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Bull statues are placed in font of screens showing the Hang Seng stock index and stock prices outside Exchange Square, in Hong Kong, China, August 18, 2023. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained overnight and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.3% to a two-week high in morning trade. "I actually don't think we need to increase rates anymore," Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the American Bankers Association, to applause, in Nashville on Tuesday. On Wednesday the Australian and New Zealand dollars hit their highest levels on the dollar since the end of September, while sterling hit a three-week peak. European gas prices, which had jumped on news of the Middle East violence, surged further on Tuesday on concern a gas pipe in Finland was sabotaged.
Persons: Tyrone Siu, Raphael Bostic, Peter Dragicevich, Brent, Vivek Dhar, Sam Rines, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, paring, Japan's Nikkei, Atlanta Fed, American Bankers Association, Treasury, New Zealand, U.S, CPI, Fed, Bloomberg, HK, Benchmark, Samsung, Pepsi, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, SINGAPORE, paring U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Nashville, Tuesday's, Israel, Finland, Estonia, Europe, Texas
Luxury stocks drag European shares lower on LVMH disappointment
  + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The logo of LVMH is seen at the Viva Technology conference dedicated to innovation and startups at Porte de Versailles exhibition center in Paris, France, June 15, 2023. REUTERS/Gonzalo Fuentes/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 11 (Reuters) - European stocks slipped on Wednesday after sharp gains in the previous session, as luxury giant LVMH dragged the sector lower on disappointing sales, though Novo Nordisk jumped after positive update on its diabetes drug Ozempic. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) dipped 0.2% by 0707 GMT. Shares of other French luxury majors such as Hermes (HRMS.PA) and Kering (PRTP.PA) fell 2.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Swiss luxury firms Richemont (CFR.S) fell 5.3% and Swatch Group (UHR.S) dropped 2.9%.
Persons: Gonzalo Fuentes, Danish drugmaker, Sruthi Shankar, Rashmi Organizations: Viva Technology, Porte de, REUTERS, Novo Nordisk, U.S . Federal Reserve, Swatch Group, Fresenius, Thomson Locations: Porte, Paris, France, U.S, Danish, Bengaluru
Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday the central bank did not need to raise borrowing costs any further, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari followed with similar remarks later in the day. U.S. Treasury yields have similarly tracked lower following the dovish Fed comments, with the two-year yield, which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, hitting a one-month low of 4.9260% on Tuesday. The focus now turns to minutes of the Fed's September policy meeting out later on Wednesday, which could offer further clues on its interest rate outlook. So I think markets are a little bit unsure whether that report is real," said CBA's Kong. The offshore yuan, which touched a roughly one-month high of 7.2700 per dollar on Tuesday, last bought 7.2839.
Persons: Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Sterling, Thierry Wizman, Carol Kong, CBA's Organizations: Treasury, dovish, Atlanta Fed Bank, Minneapolis Fed, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bloomberg Locations: U.S, Asia, China
Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. A slew of Fed officials have signalled in recent days that the U.S. central bank may not need to tighten monetary policy much further than initially thought. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday the central bank did not need to raise borrowing costs any further, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari followed with similar remarks later in the day. U.S. Treasury yields have similarly tracked lower following the dovish Fed comments, with the two-year yield , which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, hitting a one-month low of 4.9260% on Tuesday. The offshore yuan , which touched a roughly one-month high of 7.2700 per dollar on Tuesday, last bought 7.2839.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Sterling, Thierry Wizman, Carol Kong, CBA's, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, dovish, Atlanta Fed Bank, Minneapolis Fed, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, CHINA, China
That's the steepest one-day decline the 10-year Treasury yield has seen since the implosion of SVB in early March, when banking turmoil led investors to flock to US debt in search of safety. The 10-year Treasury yield continued to slide early Wednesday, trading around 4.577%. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors were pushed to sell US Treasuries last week amid rising fears over the US debt balance and higher-for-longer interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly touched a 16-year-high, capping one of the worst selloffs in market history. Meanwhile, several Fed officials delivered dovish comments on the outlook for interest rates this week, which perked up market sentiment.
Persons: SVB, , Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Service, Silicon Valley Bank, Federal Reserve, Hamas, Atlanta Fed Locations: Silicon, Israel, Friday's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDovish Fed remarks 'the catalyst' for recent market rally, says Defiance ETFs CEO Sylvia JablonskiSylvia Jablonski, Defiance ETFs co-founder and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of the Fed's inflation fight and geopolitical tensions, interest rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Sylvia Jablonski Sylvia Jablonski
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 11, 2023. ET is expected to show the producer price index for final demand increased 0.3% last month after a 0.7% rise in August, ahead of Thursday's closely watched consumer inflation data. Yields on government bonds have eased from their multi-year highs on dovish remarks from Fed officials earlier this week. Central bank officials such as Fed Governor Christopher Waller, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and Boston Fed President Susan Collins are also scheduled to speak on Wednesday. Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) lost 1.7% as the oil and gas producer is set to buy shale producer Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD.N) in an all-stock deal valued at $59.5 billion.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Fed's Bowman, Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller, Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, Mark Haefele, Birkenstock, Tim Wentworth, Piper Sandler, Drugmaker Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Novo, Shashwat Chauhan, Ankika Biswas, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Fed's Bowman Exxon, Futures, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Boston Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, Microsoft, Nvidia, Palestinian, Hamas, Dow e, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Arista Networks, Exxon Mobil, Natural Resources, Novo Nordisk's, Baxter International, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Thursday's, Middle East, Israel, Bengaluru
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