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Federal Reserve officials have clearly stated that they have no plans to pivot away from their policy of aggressive rate hikes to fight persistent inflation. It’s become pointless to try to apply economic rationale to stock markets, Prins told me in a recent interview. Another mandate: The Federal Reserve is mandated to keep unemployment and prices in check, but the third unofficial mandate of the Fed is to boost markets, said Prins. They understand, says Prins, that eventually the Fed will return to its long-term policy of aiding markets. The Federal Reserve has stepped up its efforts to tamp down high prices via a series of blockbuster interest rate hikes.
Shares of social media company Snap (SNAP) plummeted to a new 52-week low Friday on the back of a third-quarter revenue miss, with knock-on effects for internet Club holdings Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL). But despite the market moves, Snap's results should not be seen as a read through to Meta and Alphabet, which are vastly more substantial entities than Snap. Snap, which has seen its stock come down by nearly 84% year-to-date, tumbled roughly 30% Friday, to $7.56 a share. But the Club thinks the market has mistakenly roped together these social media and internet giants, which have built multifaceted digital ecosystems, with Snap. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Telsey downgrades Under Armour to market perform from outperform Telsey said it's concerned about too much inventory weighing on the stock. Bank of America downgrades Snap to neutral from buy Bank of America downgraded the stock after its "mixed" earnings report. " JPMorgan reiterates Apple as overweight JPMorgan said investors are too focused on iPhone growth heading into Apple earnings next week. Raymond James downgrades KB Home, Toll Brothers and PulteGroup to market perform from strong buy and D.R. Horton to outperform from strong buy and Lennar to market perform from outperform Raymond James downgraded several homebuilders due to rising mortgage rates.
Snap shares plummeted more than 25% in extended trading on Thursday after the social media company reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the third quarter. In August, Snap announced that it would lay off 20% of the company's roughly 6,000 employees as part of a major restructuring plan. Snap added that revenue growth is likely to keep decelerating in the fourth quarter, as that period "has historically been relatively more dependent on brand-oriented advertising revenue," which declined in the latest period. Snap also ended the production of its Snap Originals premium shows. Snap debuted the subscription service in June as a way for users to access exclusive and pre-release features for $3.99 a month.
However, Fed officials are stressing that they're far from finished when it comes to raising rates. "When this basket is signaling the weakness that it's showing, what the Fed typically does is not raise rates. But in this case, it's not only raising rates aggressively, but with a commitment to continue raising rates aggressively." In addition to the typical headline metrics such as the consumer price index and the Fed's preferred personal consumption expenditures price index, the Cleveland Fed's "sticky price" CPI rose 8.5% on an annualized basis in September, up from 7.7% in August. The measure looks at items such as rent, the price of food away from home and recreation costs.
There is still a bull case that suggests further upside for the stock market, according to DataTrek. The upside case hinges on inflation and rates decelerating considerably over the next six months. The bull case for stocks would only get stronger if analysts' corporate earnings estimates stop moving lower and bottom out. "Pull these points together and you have a reasonable upside case for US stocks." But there is still plenty of risk, and any derailment of the above factors would reset the six-month clock and lead to more doldrums for the stock market.
Operating income Once we remove operating expenses from gross margin dollars , we are left with what is known as operating income. This is especially important from a cash flow perspective as many companies define free cash flow (a non-GAAP metric) as "operating cash flow less expenditures on property, plant and equipment." Part 3: Cash flow analysis The cash flow statement is the middle child in a financial report — it gets overlooked. Investors may look to use operating cash flow or free cash flow for this equation. AMC's cash flow Let's finish by taking a look at the cash flow statement.
Food prices increased 0.8%, with the cost of food at home advancing 0.7% amid rises in all six major grocery store food groups. The war in Ukraine also poses an upside risk to food prices. In the 12 months through September, the CPI increased 8.2% after rising 8.3% in August, decelerating for a third straight month. The so-called core CPI is being largely driven by the higher costs for rental accommodation. The core CPI jumped 6.6% in the 12 months through September, the most since August 1982, after rising 6.3% in August.
Oct 13 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's resource heavy stock index on Thursday ticked higher, tracking gold and crude prices, with investors avoiding big bets ahead of a crucial U.S. inflation data later in the day. December futures on the S&P/TSX index rose 0.3% after five days of losses on the TSX. Gold prices were steady, while crude oil prices enjoyed extended support from the OPEC+ cuts last week, which the International Energy Agency warned may push the global economy into recession. [GOl/]Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterS&P futures rose 0.5% to lead gains among the U.S. stock futures ahead of September consumer prices data due at 08:30 a.m. Canada's stock index (.GSPTSE) closed lower on Wednesday, as U.S. producer price data and minutes from the Federal Reserve's September meeting bolstered expectations for additional rate hikes.
Futures jittery ahead of U.S. CPI data
  + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Consumer prices data due at 8:30 am ET will be closely watched for clues on how the central bank will proceed with its monetary policy tightening. The headline CPI is expected to have gained at an annual pace of 8.1% in September, decelerating from August's 8.3% rise, according to a Reuters poll. ET, Dow e-minis were up 86 points, or 0.29%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 9.25 points, or 0.26%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 12 points, or 0.11%. Investors also awaited quarterly earnings reports from BlackRock (BLK.N), Domino's Pizza (DPZ.N), Walgreens Boots Alliance and Delta Air Lines (DAL.N). read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb ChakrabartyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Goldman Sachs raised its forecasts for electric car sales and believes Tesla and General Motors will benefit from the trend. The Inflation Reduction Act , signed by President Joe Biden in August, will benefit carmakers such as Tesla and GM with $7,500 worth of tax credits per car, according to Goldman. Goldman said it now expects Tesla to make 2.4 million cars worldwide in 2024, up from its previous forecast of 2.275 million. According to the report, the tax credits will also benefit GM and Ford , although only "slightly." Housing sales figures, which are also strongly correlated to vehicle sales, point toward a gloomy picture , according to Goldman.
Economists expect core inflation — which removes food and energy costs — to rebound in September. An increase would make it even harder for the Fed to fight inflation without pulling the US into a recession. Should the projection prove correct, that will place core inflation back at the March peak and the fastest pace since 1981. Core inflation, meanwhile, rose in August to 6.3% from 5.9%, kickstarting the divergence that's expected to continue into the fall. Whether the September inflation data surprises to the upside or shows price growth slowing more than expected, either outcome is unlikely to change the Fed's plans.
Oct 11 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund warned on Tuesday of a disorderly repricing in markets, saying global financial stability risks have increased, raising the potential of contagion and spillovers of stress between markets. The IMF's Global Financial Stability Report, which warned of the risks to markets, came as the Fund also cut its growth outlook in its latest World Economic Outlook. read moreHere are key indicators of stress and risks the IMF sees to financial stability:Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register* LIQUIDITYDeteriorating market liquidity conditions may poserisks to financial stability, the IMF said. * CURRENCY SWAPSInternational short-term dollar funding markets have begun to show signs of concern with a widening of the cross-currency basis swap spreads, a proxy for the marginal cost of offshore US dollar funding, the IMF said. * LEVERAGE LOAN MARKET CREDIT CRUNCHTighter financial conditions, mounting liquidity strains, and decelerating earnings growth could presage ratings downgrades and eventual defaults and lower returns for collateralized loan obligations (CLO) investors, the IMF said.
How to analyze an earnings report — Part 5: A case study
  + stars: | 2022-10-11 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +23 min
In this case study, we can apply some of what we covered in Part 1 : The income statement; Part 2 : The balance sheet; Part 3 : Cash flow analysis; and Part 4 : The ratios. At the time, he still had over 2.3 million shares, nearly all of which were unvested. AMC's cash flow Let's finish by taking a look at the cash flow statement. What we really want to focus on is operating cash flow (line three), followed by capital expenditures and then free cash flow. Even in the fourth quarter, it didn't generate enough cash flow to cover the investing and financing outflows, not to mention capital expenditures.
Inflation in the 12 months to mid-September hit 7.96%, well below the 8.14% forecast by economists, likely backing the central bank's recent decision of pausing its aggressive rate hiking cycle. Adding to energy state tax cuts announced earlier this year, oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA reduced refinery gate gasoline prices twice since mid-August, leading to lower prices at the pump. The inflation drop in September, however, was not widespread as prices fell in only three of the nine groups of products and services surveyed, IBGE said - communication, food and beverages, and transportation. The latest inflation data comes as Brazil's central bank last week chose to keep interest rates unchanged at 13.75%, pausing an aggressive tightening after 12 consecutive increases aimed at curbing high inflation. William Jackson, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, said the inflation figures confirmed that the monetary tightening cycle was over.
Goldman Sachs listed 50 stock picks with the highest returns on equity. Both valuations and fundamentals are in the crosshairs as rates rise, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs expects those cross-sector troubles to continue in 2023 as the economy weakens and as interest rates and tax rates climb. The median stock among this collection is expected to increase ROE 14% over the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. Below are the 50 high-ROE stocks that Goldman Sachs highlighted, including 21 new additions this quarter, along with their ticker, sector, forward ROE, and ROE growth.
As Kuroda's right-hand man, he has consistently called for the need to keep monetary policy ultra-loose to ensure Japan makes a sustained exit from deflation. Like Amamiya, Nakaso is considered a safe pair of hands with his expertise on central bank affairs. The BOJ's dovish stance has made it an outlier among a global wave of central banks tightening monetary policy to combat surging inflation. "While Kuroda is at the helm, the BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy won't change," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute. "But under a new leadership, the bank could reassess its view on the inflation outlook and thinking on monetary policy."
Scharf, who took over the troubled lender in October 2019, said in his congressional testimony Wednesday that Wells Fargo has "approximately $1.9 trillion in assets." The Club take: Our investment thesis in Wells Fargo largely rests on a two-pronged approach to boost earnings. As rates rise, Wells Fargo can make more money on the spread between what it pays customers for deposits and what it charges for loans. Still, intensifying recession fears have ultimately been a drag on Wells Fargo shares this year. Investors must be realists, though, and our stake in Wells Fargo never assumed it would be a quick fix.
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