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Consumer inflation data strongly indicates the US is on its way to a soft landing, Paul Krugman said. That means the economy could see normal levels of inflation without a spike in unemployment. "We haven't touched down on the runway yet, and a soft landing isn't guaranteed," Krugman said. The CPI report "strongly suggested" a soft landing is ahead and now looks more likely than not, he added. And digging deeper into the numbers, the cooling trend in inflation actually looks more upbeat.
Persons: Paul Krugman, Krugman Organizations: Service, New York Times, CPI Locations: Wall, Silicon
As the rate of inflation continues to fall, Social Security beneficiaries may expect to see a much lower cost-of-living adjustment for 2024. The Social Security COLA may be 3%, according to a new estimate from The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group, based on new consumer price index data for June released on Wednesday. A lower 2.6% rise would happen if there is no net inflation for the rest of the year, according to the forecast. The projected increases to benefits for next year would fall short of the 8.7% rise beneficiaries saw in 2023 — the highest boost in four decades. In 2022, beneficiaries saw a 5.9% increase, which was also a record increase at the time.
Persons: Mary Johnson Organizations: Social, Social Security, Senior Citizens League, Finance, Federal Budget
But last month’s inflation report was an outlier — for the first time, the declines weren’t immediately preceded by a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. One month doesn’t dictate a trendFed Chair Jerome Powell has said it time and time again: One month’s data is not indicative of a trend. Powell repeatedly stresses that the Fed takes a data-dependent approach to interest rate decisions. In Schoenholtz’s view, the Fed should continue to hike interest rates even though inflation slowed down sharply in June despite the central bank holding rates steady. If the Fed waits too long to raise interest rates, it could risk its credibility, leading to a persistently higher price level that’s harder for the Fed to crack down on.
Persons: weren’t, Jerome Powell, , Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell, , Wendy Edelberg, they’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Labor Department, Federal, CPI, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, Fed, Hamilton Project, Brookings Institution, CNN Locations: New York, Kermit Schoenholtz , New
That's based on new Consumer Price Index data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday, which is one measure of inflation. That suggests another month of cooling inflation, after the unadjusted year-over-year change in May was 4.0%. However, the year-over-year CPI has tumbled every month since then, and the new data means 12 months of falling inflation. The month-over-month percent change was expected to be more than the percent change in May, from a month-over-month increase of 0.1% in May to a month-over-month increase of 0.3% in June. While inflation is still falling in the US, it's still more than the Fed's 2% target, at least by the overall year-over-year CPI measure.
Persons: That's, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Fed, Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Core CPI, CPI, BLS, Federal, Federal Reserve Locations: Wall, Silicon
Rising inventories and price-cutting could represent only a short-term pause in EV market growth. If production of EVs continues to outpace demand, automakers will have to choose between slashing prices and profit margins, or slowing assembly lines. More than 90 new EV models are expected to hit the U.S. market through 2026, according to AutoForecast Solutions. In a statement, Volkswagen's U.S. sales arm said "we have seen some softening in EV sales in the U.S. recently" as supply chain bottlenecks have eased, allowing for increased production. Wakefield said it is too soon to declare that U.S. EV demand has hit a plateau.
Persons: Tesla, EVs, Cox, Ford, Vitaly Golomb, Biden, Price, Mark Wakefield, Wakefield, Joe White, Nick Zieminski Organizations: DETROIT, EV, North, AutoForecast Solutions, Dealers, General Motors, Ford, Hyundai, Toyota, Cox Automotive, U.S, Cox, GM, Cadillac, GMC, Volkswagen, U.S ., VW, Industry, EVs, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, United States, Texas, Washington, Tennessee
Summary Supply cuts by Saudi Arabia, Russia lift benchmark pricesDollar falls to 2-month low, adding support to marketTightening cycle coming to an end, U.S. Fed officials sayJuly 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, recouping some of the losses from the previous session, as traders focused on supply cuts by the world's biggest oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia and a weaker dollar. Supply cuts by the world's biggest oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia set for August helped to lift the benchmark prices, which were also supported as the U.S. dollar fell to a two-month low. A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies and often boosts oil demand. Any weak economic forecasts by U.S. banks kicking off their earnings season, however, could weigh on prices, he said. Saudi Arabia last week said it would extend its 1 million barrels-per-day (bpd) cut at least to August, and Russia said it would cut its oil exports next month by 500,000 bpd.
Persons: recouping, Edward Moya, Moya, Arathy Somasekhar, Tom Hogue Organizations: Fed, Brent, U.S . West Texas, U.S ., U.S . Federal Reserve, Energy, Traders, American Petroleum Institute, Analysts, Consumer, Thomson Locations: Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, China
On the job market, indications like the latest jobs report — which showed that fewer Americans are getting hired — can be interpreted as bad news. As of the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, there were 1.6 jobs available for every job seeker — or more than 3 million job openings than people searching for jobs. What’s good news for investorsInvestors are searching for signs that the Federal Reserve will stop hiking interest rates, or better yet, cut them. When the Fed raises interest rates it raises the cost of doing business for companies who rely on outside funding. That’s because interest rates on loans tend to rise in tandem with increases in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate.
Persons: , It’s, that’s, , Sean Snaith, Snaith, Jerome Powell, Kermit Schoenholtz, Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Fed, Institute for Economic, University of Central, Labor, Survey, Kermit Schoenholtz , New York University, Citigroup, CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, University of Central Florida, Kermit Schoenholtz , New
Oil ticks up on OPEC+ cuts, traders eye economic data
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
An oil pump jack is seen in the Loco Hills region, New Mexico, U.S., April 6, 2023. Oil prices edged higher on Tuesday, recouping some of the losses from the previous session, as traders focused on supply cuts by the world's biggest oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia and awaited data that could help ascertain demand. Supply cuts by the world's biggest oil exporters Saudi Arabia and Russia set for August helped to lift the benchmark prices, which were also supported as the U.S. dollar fell to a two-month low. A weaker dollar makes crude cheaper for holders of other currencies and often boosts oil demand. Traders were also looking ahead to U.S. crude inventory data due later on Tuesday from industry group American Petroleum Institute.
Persons: recouping Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, U.S . Federal Reserve, U.S ., Traders, American Petroleum Institute, Analysts, Consumer Locations: New Mexico, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China
Monday, July 10, 2023: Cramer discusses this pharmaceutical name in the portfolioJim Cramer and Jeff Marks discuss the market ahead of June's Consumer Price Index data set to come out this Wednesday. Jim talks about a pharmaceutical Club holding as it awaits a looming court decision on one of its products and how that could impact the stock. Finally, Jim and Jeff break down one tech giant after its new social media platform hits 100 million users.
Persons: Cramer, Jim Cramer, Jeff Marks, Jim, Jeff Organizations: June's
Average 30-year mortgage rates were around 6.49% last month, but they've so far been higher in July, hovering closer to 7%. Depending on how the upcoming Consumer Price Index data shakes out, mortgage rates could start to recede somewhat later in the month. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.81%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.24% this week, according to Freddie Mac data.
Persons: We'll, you'll, Freddie Mac Organizations: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mortgage Bankers Association, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
MEXICO CITY, July 7 (Reuters) - Several workers at an offshore platform run by Mexican state oil company Pemex in the Gulf of Mexico are missing after a fire broke out early Friday morning, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador told reporters. The president said Pemex firefighters were at the scene at the Cantarell complex, in the Bay of Campeche, to put out the fire after an explosion at a gas production platform and that employees were evacuated. One Pemex employee and three others were injured, the oil workers union said in a statement. A source at the company told Reuters the fire was at Pemex's Nohoch-A offshore gas compression platform, but that oil production remained unaffected. Cantarell produces from one of Mexico's largest oil fields which for decades was one of Pemex's crown jewels.
Persons: Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Lopez Obrador, Ana Isabel Martinez, Stefanie Eschenbacher, Manuel Carrillo, Kylie Madry, Isabel Woodford, David Holmes Organizations: MEXICO CITY, Reuters, Cantarell, Thomson Locations: MEXICO, Gulf, Mexico, Bay, Campeche
At the end of June, dealers had about 1.8 million vehicles in stock, nearly 800,000 more than at the same point in 2022, according to Cox data. At the same time, however, higher interest rates and higher car prices have put new-car purchases out of reach of many consumers. Cox estimated that total sales of new cars and trucks rose 11.6 percent in the first half of the year, to 7.65 million. The firm now expects full-year sales to top 15 million, which would be a rise of 8 percent. Toyota said its U.S. sales rose 7 percent, to 568,962 cars and light trucks.
Persons: Smoke, Cox Organizations: Cox, Toyota, Chrysler
Mega-cap stocks helped end the second quarter with a bang. The Nasdaq 100 ended just shy of a previous first half record, with a 32% gain. The Nasdaq 100 gained nearly 32% in the first half, nearly breaking its first-half record, set in 1983. The S&P 500 gained 17.6% in the first half while the Dow climbed 3.7%. In the second quarter, the Nasdaq closed at 13% higher, while the S&P and Dow climbed 8.8% and 2.5%.
Persons: , Dow Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Here's, Dow Jones
Average 15-year fixed mortgage rates have generally remained in the 5.7% to 5.9% range. So far, the economy has been cooling somewhat, which should eventually push mortgage rates down. But if the Federal Reserve feels that it needs to raise the federal funds rate to get inflation down to its target rate, mortgage rates could spike temporarily. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. This means your entire monthly mortgage payment, including taxes and insurance, shouldn't exceed 28% of your pre-tax monthly income.
Persons: we'll, you'll, Fannie Mae Organizations: Federal Reserve, Zillow, Mortgage, Association, Sky Locations: Chevron
Gold steadies near three-month lows; focus shifts to Powell
  + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold held near three-month lows on Wednesday after strong U.S. economic readings offset the bullion's traditional safe-haven status, while traders positioned for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech and more data for clues on rate hikes. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,915.45 per ounce by 0524 GMT, hovering close to its lowest level since March 16 at $1,910. Data on Tuesday indicating that the economy remained on solid footing could lead to more Fed rate hikes to bring down inflation. Powell will speak at a policy panel on Wednesday before the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking in Sintra along with other central bank members. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $22.93 per ounce, platinum fell 0.9% to $916.83 while palladium dropped 1.1% to $1,281.48.
Persons: Gold, Jerome Powell's, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Powell, Tim Waterer Organizations: Federal, City, Open, Committee, European Central Bank, Central Banking, KCM Locations: U.S, Sintra
June 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. It is unclear what the immediate impact of Russian mercenaries' advance on Moscow, retreat and apparent deal with President Vladimir Putin will be on risk appetite and demand for traditional 'safe haven' assets like gold, Treasuries, the Japanese yen or the U.S. dollar. These assets would likely have attracted strong investor demand first thing on Monday morning had the Wagner group's march on Moscow continued. The S&P 500, Nasdaq, MSCI World Index, China's major indices and Japan's Nikkei 225 index all posted their biggest losses since March last week. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index, a broad measure of Asian stocks, slumped 4.2%, its worst week since September.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Vladimir Putin, Wagner, Antony Blinken, Diane Craft Organizations: U.S ., Investors, . Stock, Nasdaq, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Russia, Moscow, U.S, Beijing, Asia, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Germany
Even though inflation is slowing in many countries after more than a year of interest rate hikes, it remains above the 2% level many central banks are targeting. Raising interest rates is the primary tool central bankers have at their disposal to get inflation down. That’s why the Federal Reserve paused interest rate hikes at its June meeting after 10 consecutive hikes since last March. It’s harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high. That’s because research shows that inflation, if unaddressed, could become even more sticky and harder for central banks to control with rate hikes.
Persons: Andrew Bailey, Bailey, don’t, Christine Lagarde, ” Lagarde, it’s, Michael Bordo, , Organizations: New, New York CNN, ” Bank of England, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Center for Monetary, Rutgers University, CNN Locations: New York
He is missing and presumed dead, according to his brother, highlighting the perils faced by people who seek to enter Europe illegally. Cash-strapped Pakistan's $350 billion economy is in a meltdown, with inflation at a record 38%. Pakistan's information ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters about economic factors fuelling migration. 3 nationality registered in Italy coming from Libya, after Egyptians and Bangladeshis, a Frontex spokesperson told Reuters in an email. At least 209 Pakistanis were believed to be on board, according to official data based on information provided by relatives.
Persons: Muhammad Sarwar Bhatti, Hameed Iqbal Bhatti, Salahuddin, Bhatti, Hafeez Pasha, Muhammad Nadeem, Nadeem, Kosar Bibi, Bibi, Sarwar Warraich, Muhammad Zubair, Muhammad Nazim, Nazim, Muhammad Ali, Anish Raza, Haji Ilyas, Ilyas, puffing, Israr Mirza, Mirza, Gibran Peshimam, Ariba Shahid, David Crawshaw Organizations: Reuters, REUTERS, Cash, Federal Investigation Agency, FIA, OF, International Monetary Fund, Migrant Resource Centre, College, Thomson Locations: Greece, Khuiratta, Pakistan, Kashmir, Saudi Arabia, Europe, Libya, Italy, Gujrat, Italian, Ferrara, Turkey, Bhojpur, Gujrat district, Spain, EU, Lahore, Islamabad
UK food production costs fall for first time since 2016: Lloyds
  + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, June 20 (Reuters) - British food manufacturers reported the first drop in their production costs since 2016 in May as lower commodity and energy prices and cheaper shipping outweighed a jump in wage bills, a Lloyds Bank report showed on Tuesday. "It will still take some time before we see the benefit in terms of shelf prices," said Annabel Finlay, a managing director at Lloyds Bank. Food price inflation, as measured by Britain's Office for National Statistics, hit its highest since 1977 in April at 19.1% and only eased fractionally in May. Last week Tesco, Britain's biggest supermarket chain, said food price inflation had peaked and it and others have said they are cutting the prices of some foodstuffs and freezing others. The Lloyds Bank report is based on an analysis of S&P Purchasing Managers' Index data covering around 1,300 companies.
Persons: Annabel Finlay, Andrew Bailey, David Milliken, William Schomberg Organizations: Lloyds Bank, Manufacturers, United Nations, Britain's, National Statistics, Tesco, Bank of England, P, Thomson Locations: British
In this article PLTR Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTThe Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, U.S., on Saturday, Nov. 14, 2020. The Cleveland Clinic was in the midst of trying new AI-powered software from Palantir . But by accurately predicting patient discharges, Palantir's system saved Pappas, her team and the emergency department a lot of time and effort. Palantir partnered with two health-care systems, Cleveland Clinic and Tampa General Hospital in Florida, during the summer of 2021 to develop software called Palantir for Hospital Operations. Zoom In Icon Arrows pointing outwards Schedule review within Palantir for Hospital Operations Palantir
Persons: Dustin Franz, Rita Pappas, Pappas, , Palantir, Shyam Sankar, Sankar, Alex Karp, Dr, Peggy Duggan, Drew Goldstein, Jeremy David, Palantir Drew Goldstein, Palantir's, I'm, David, Goldstein, whiteboards, Drew didn't, They've Organizations: Cleveland Clinic, Ohio Department of Health, Bloomberg, Getty Images Bloomberg, Getty, Cleveland, CNBC, Tampa General Hospital, Hospital Operations, U.S, Intelligence, Hospital Operations Palantir Nurses, American Medical Association . Companies, Tampa General, Cleveland Clinic's, Microsoft Locations: Cleveland , Ohio, U.S, Ohio, Tampa, Florida, Palantir, Florida and Ohio
That gives housing an outsized influence on the overall direction of inflation data. Housing inflation has been stubbornly high for months, according to CPI data. But economists think it has peaked and is on the precipice of a reversal. "I know this with about as high a degree of confidence as one could have," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said of falling housing inflation being near at hand. The latest CPI reading, issued Tuesday, showed a monthly increase in shelter inflation, to 0.6% in May from 0.4% in April.
Persons: Richard Newstead, Mark Zandi, Andrew Hunter, Jason Furman, Obama Organizations: Moody's, Capital Economics, CNBC, Finance, Social Security, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Harvard University, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Twitter, CPI
The Federal Reserve announced it's pausing interest-rate hikes at its Wednesday meeting. This comes after 10 consecutive interest-rate increases in 15 months. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced it's holding interest rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, putting a pause on the central bank's 10 consecutive increases in 15 months. "Without a meaningful downside surprise in both jobs and inflation, a final interest-rate hike remains in the cards for July." Following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank, credit conditions tightened, in part pushing the Fed to skip this month's rate hike amid a lending pullback.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Powell, Seema Shah, Shah, Thomas Simons, Simons, Marta Norton, Kathy Gramling, Gramling, Norton, there's, Price Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, Market, Fed, Asset Management, Jefferies, Valley Bank, First Republic Bank, Morningstar Wealth's America, EY, Consumer, Morningstar Wealth, Norton
New government data shows the annual rate of inflation dipped to the lowest level in about two years as of May. But that may be bittersweet news for Social Security beneficiaries, as they may receive a much lower cost-of-living adjustment in 2024 than they did this year. The Social Security COLA could be 2.7% in 2024 based on the latest consumer price index data, according to The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan senior group. The CPI rose 4% from a year ago as of May, the U.S. Department of Labor said Tuesday, and 0.1% for the month. The subset of the index used to determine next year's cost-of-living adjustment, the consumer price index for urban wage earners and clerical workers, or CPI-W, was up 3.6% year over year — the lowest level since March 2021, The Senior Citizens League noted.
Organizations: Social, Social Security, Senior Citizens League, Finance, GOP, U.S . Department of Labor
But food prices rose 0.2% after being unchanged for two consecutive months as fruits and vegetables, nonalcoholic beverages and other food products became more expensive. While the unemployment rate rose to a seven-month high of 3.7%, that was from a 53-year low of 3.4% in April. The so-called core CPI increased 0.4% in May, rising by the same margin for the third straight month. Beyond May, however, overall core inflation is expected to slow, driven by a moderation in rents and resumption in price declines for used cars and trucks. "We expect a more noticeable deceleration in core prices in the coming months," said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist with Wells Fargo in New York.
Persons: Kathy Bostjancic, Joe Biden, I've, Biden, nonfarm, Michael Pugliese, Wells, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, Nationwide, Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, New York, U.S, Ukraine
The dollar made little progress as investors opted for riskier assets, with the Fed widely expected on Wednesday not to hike rates for the first time since January 2022. "Investors have been looking forward to a Fed pause in the rate hiking cycle since they started over a year ago. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 202.78 points, or 1.53%, to 13,461.92 in its biggest one-day percentage gain since May 26. Traders are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Given said a Fed hike "would likely be very dollar-positive as it would go against current market expectations."
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Price, Burns McKinney, McKinney, Sterling, Helen, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Elizabeth Howcroft, Andrew Heavens, Nick Zieminski, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, CPI, PPI Fed, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Brent, Consumer, Index, PPI, NFJ Investment, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Monex USA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Washington
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